Thursday, April25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 8:25PM Thursday April 25, 2019 8:22 PM EDT (00:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:57AMMoonset 10:22AM Illumination 60% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 937 Am Edt Thu Apr 25 2019
Rest of today..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..East winds 5 to 10 knots backing to the northeast after midnight...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots early in the afternoon. Light rain in the morning. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Sunny in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Northeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain and light snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201904252000;;465113 FZUS63 KDTX 251337 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 937 AM EDT Thu Apr 25 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A surface ridge, averaging 30.00 inches, will gradually exit the region today. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure will slowly organize across the Ohio valley over the next 24 hours. This low will deepen to 29.80 inches at lifts across Ohio overnight and Friday. The passage of this low to the south may result in a period of unsettled conditions with some shower activity during this time, particularly over lake Erie. Pressure will continue to fall as this low exits to the northeast on Friday. The strengthen gradient in it's wake will lead to gusty northwest winds over the central great lakes to finish the week. LCZ460-252000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252258
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
658 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019

Aviation
There will be a strengthening of the low pressure system lifting
into ohio tonight, with further intensification forecast as it lifts
across lake erie early Friday morning. There is an ongoing influx of
low level moisture into SE mi with the approach of this system. The
result will be steadily lowering ceilings during the course of the
evening. A rapid increase in upper level forcing late this
evening overnight will result in widespread moderate rain at times
through a good portion of the night, mainly southeast of fnt.

Additional low level moistening with the rain will support a good
chance for the development of some ifr cigs; again mainly southeast
of fnt. There will be a tightening of the north-northwest gradient
on the back side of the sfc low as it continues to deepen across
lake erie Fri morning. This will be supportive of gusty winds (over
25 knots) at times through Friday afternoon.

For dtw... As widespread rain advances across metro this evening,
there will continue to be a lowering of the cloud bases. The
probabilities for ifr CIGS will increase after 05z and remain high
through roughly 12z. There will be some weak elevated instability
across metro detroit tonight. The probabilities for thunderstorms
however remain very low. There will be a gradual backing of the
winds Friday morning as the intensity increases. The prospects for
winds turning a little more westerly by afternoon will raise some
concerns for crosswind thresholds being exceeded Fri afternoon and
evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings AOB 5000 feet tonight and Friday morning.

Moderate Friday afternoon.

* low in thunderstorms tonight.

* moderate in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Friday afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 351 pm edt Thu apr 25 2019
discussion...

near term rest of today through tonight
as of 350 pm edt... Baroclinic leaf structure depicted in water vapor
imagery associated with a low pressure system across the
ohio tennessee valleys continues to expand northward across lower
michigan this afternoon. This feature has been apparent for much of
the day as abundant cloud cover across much of the region, with the
exception being a sharp gradient north of the i-69 corridor allowing
for mostly sunny conditions to largely prevail for the bulk of the
day. Despite the cloud cover, temperatures have still been able to
warm to around 60, with mid 60s readings where sunshine has been
most prevalent.

Warm front associated with aforementioned low pressure will continue
lifting northward into the northern ohio valley before being shunted
off to the southeast as the surface low center tracks northeast
across west-central lake erie. The low will deepen rather
aggressively through tonight from around 1003 hpa to the lower 990s
hpa by 12z Friday. This deepening will be in response to phasing of
its associated southern stream wave with northern stream energy
racing southeast from the upper midwest. Midlevel height field will
take on a neutral to slightly negative-tilt as a result, allowing
for enhanced dynamic lift from a combination of initial isentropic
lift along the nose of the warm conveyer belt followed by
deformation forcing. Dynamic support will also be enhanced by the
favorable juxtaposition of a coupled upper jet and left-exit region
of the llj. Fairly widespread rain will develop from south to north
as a result, and with the low center tracking across west-central
lake erie, the greatest coverage will be focused primarily south and
east of a howell lapeer sandusky line. Pwats will increase to just
over an inch helping to allow for embedded moderate heavier rain
segments. Cannot totally rule out a rumble of thunder as elevated
instability will be limited, but nevertheless efficient, convective
rain rates should be realized especially across the detroit metro
and down into monroe county.

Latest hi-res guidance suggests that the heaviest rainfall totals
look to occur just east of the forecast area, but amounts in excess
of an inch will still be possible for far southeastern areas, and
for more on potential amounts and possible flooding impacts, refer
to the hydrology section below. Strengthening north northwest flow
around the backside of the low will result in a breezy night and
along with abundant cloud cover rain will help keep low temperatures
in the mid upper 40s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
the low will deepen further into the mid 980s hpa Friday, allowing
for a tight pressure gradient to develop across the region with
prevailing northwest flow. Winds will quickly ramp up Friday
morning, with gusts around 35 mph possible for the bulk of the day.

As rain exits from west to east as the low pressure system departs
towards quebec, sharp height rises aloft and increasing
subsidence dry air will allow for skies to clear out quickly. The
increased insolation coupled with the tight pressure gradient will
allow for efficient mixing and rapid boundary layer growth to 5-6
kft, helping to keep the gusty conditions persist well through the
afternoon. If cloud cover can disperse earlier in the morning, would
not be surprised to see a few gusts closer to 40 mph. Despite strong
cold air advection in the wake of the low characterized by 850 hpa
temps falling from 7-9 c to the negative single digits by Friday
night, the deepening boundary layer will still enable high
temperatures to reach around 60 for most areas. Mainly clear skies
continue Friday night with ridging aloft passing overhead. Winds
will only slowly weaken through the night helping to keep low
temperatures from tanking, but the influx of low-level cold air will
still result in low temperatures plummeting into the 30s.

Attention then shifts to late Saturday into Saturday night, as a
vigorous and compact northern stream wave dives southeast across the
northern plains and upper midwest towards lower michigan. This
feature will be accompanied by a clipper-type surface low and a
bowling ball of PV energy that will help enhance lift across lower
michigan Saturday evening through Saturday night. After high
temperatures only reaching into the lower 50s with the thermal
trough passing overhead, temperatures will steadily fall again into
the 30s under brisk north to northeast wind and 850 hpa temps
dipping below 0 c as far south as the i94 corridor. Cooling will
also be enhanced by diabatic effects as the wave tracks across lower
michigan.

Model guidance continues to be in very solid agreement with this
system, with the track in vicinity of the michigan indiana ohio
border. Impressive trowal feature wrapping around a closed 850 hpa
low will enhance precipitation across southeast michigan as initial
rain transitions to a wet snow rain mix. Still some uncertainty as
to the degree of boundary layer cooling, with best potential for an
almost full transition to wet snow north of the i-96 696 corridor.

Despite favorable nighttime passage of the wave, accumulation
efficiency will probably be difficult with likely above freezing
skin temperatures and snow ratios struggling to reach past 8:1 in
system-relative moist airmass. Still, around a half of an inch of
qpf with the low snow ratios and at least a tenth lost to initial
rain should yield 1-3 inches of accumulation, primarily on grassy
surfaces. If higher snow rates can be achieved (bulk of the snow
falls within a 6hr period), some slushy road accumulation is also
possible, along with isolated totals closer to 4 inches. These
totals will primarily be focused between the i-96 696 and i-69
corridors. Less than an inch will be possible north to the m-46
corridor and south to the i-94 corridor.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
by Sunday morning, the system will be pushing away from the area
bringing drier conditions to the area by the afternoon. A
tightening pressure gradient on Sunday will bring gusty winds during
the day before settling down later in the day. After a brief dry
period going into Monday, conditions look to become more active
through the week. There looks to be chances for precip during the
week as a few waves move across the area. Temperatures look to be
on the cooler side Sunday night and Monday before warming back into
the 50s for highs through the week.

Marine...

light and variable flow late today will become north northeast
overnight as strong low pressure lifts to near lake erie. Rain will
spread north into the area with this low, reaching southern lake
huron overnight into Friday morning. Winds will increase late
tonight into Friday and back to the northwest as a cold front surges
through the area in the wake of this passing low pressure. Small
craft advisories will go into effect for western lake erie lake st
clair lake huron nearshore waters Friday morning as wind gusts reach
25 knots with a gale warning for the open waters of northern lake
huron by Friday afternoon expanding south portions of the lake by
evening as cold northwest flow expands across the area. A few
nearshore zones may very well need to be upgraded to a gale warning
by Friday evening night as strongest northwest flow sets up.

Another strong low pressure system will cross the northern ohio
valley Saturday night. Moderate northeast flow will bring a modest
increase in waves by Sunday as wind gusts reach 20 knots or so after
a period of relative calm in between low pressure systems from late
Saturday into Saturday night. This second low will bring another
period of precipitation, a combination of rain and snow, especially
form far southern lake huron south to western lake erie.

Hydrology...

rain will spread north into the region this evening and persist into
Friday morning as strengthening low pressure tracks through the ohio
valley and then across lake erie overnight. Rainfall amounts of
between one half and one inch will be possible generally along and
southeast of line from howell to lapeer to sandusky with the highest
amounts expected from the michigan and ohio state line northeast
through parts of metro detroit into the port huron area (where
amounts may locally exceed an inch). In these areas, rainfall could
lead to some minor urban and poor drainage flooding in typically
prone areas. To the northwest of this line, rainfall amounts will
average less than one half inch and will quite possibly be one tenth
of an inch or less over the saginaw valley.

Additional precipitation is expected late Saturday through Saturday
night as another strong low pressure system tracks west to east
through the southern great lakes. This precipitation will fall as a
combination of rain and snow with several inches of accumulating
snow expected in some locations. A liquid equivalent of around one
half an inch can be expected with this second storm system with the
heaviest swath currently expected between roughly i-96 and i-69.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory from 8 pm Friday to 10 am edt Saturday for
miz049.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 8 pm Friday to 10 am edt Saturday for lhz363-462-
463.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Friday to 10 am edt Saturday for
lhz421-422-441>443.

Gale warning from 4 pm Friday to 10 am edt Saturday for lhz361-362.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 10 am edt Saturday for
lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 10 pm edt Friday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Irl sp
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi23 min E 7 G 8.9 51°F 1007.5 hPa (-1.3)
AGCM4 25 mi35 min 1006.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi83 min E 11 G 11 47°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi35 min 1006.7 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi35 min S 7 G 7 1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi30 minESE 410.00 miLight Rain52°F43°F72%1006.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi86 minSSE 34.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist51°F49°F94%1007.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi28 minE 410.00 miOvercast55°F37°F53%1007.4 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6S6CalmE3S4S3CalmE4CalmSE4S6E4SE4E4E5NE55SE5E5E5SE9E7E6SE4
1 day agoNW8NW6NW7N7N6N6NW4NW4W3NW3CalmN5NW533N5N3CalmNE3SE8SE9E9SE8S7
2 days agoSE8SE8SE8SE8SE4SE5S5SE8S5S7S10S7SW11SW12
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.