Tuesday, July17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:08AMSunset 9:06PM Tuesday July 17, 2018 1:44 AM EDT (05:44 UTC) Moonrise 10:31AMMoonset 11:21PM Illumination 18% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 334 Pm Edt Mon Jul 16 2018
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy this evening becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming light and variable early in the morning. Clear. Waves nearly calm.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny early in the morning becoming mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201807170815;;578522 FZUS63 KDTX 161934 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 334 PM EDT Mon Jul 16 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.80 inches will push across the state of Michigan this afternoon into the evening, producing rain and thunderstorm chances. A broad surface high pressure system is then expected to push from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes starting Tuesday, and will center over Michigan by Wednesday night. Pressure will gradually rise up to 30.10 inches late Wednesday into Thursday as conditions remain dry. LCZ460-170815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 170330
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1130 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018

Aviation
Strong synoptic scale cold front set to push through all of southeast
michigan during the next couple of hours. Total air mass changeover
is set with 50 degree dewpoints now in fnt. System relative progs
show that subsidence is expected throughout almost the entire column
by early to mid morning Tuesday. Very high static stability will
limit boundary layer cloud growth. Expecting some patches of cumulus
to develop tied to recent rainfall, however, coverage is expected to
be very sparse. Northwest winds of 10 to 20 knots expected by
afternoon Tuesday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none

Prev discussion
Issued at 253 pm edt Mon jul 16 2018
discussion...

big airmass change to take place tonight as strong upper level pv
anomaly low over northern ontario this afternoon drives a strong
cold front through southeast michigan.

Hot and humid conditions around this afternoon as high temperatures
topped out around 90 degrees, with heat indices residing in the low
to mid 90s. 18z SPC analysis shows mlcapes around 2000 j kg, but 0-6
km bulk shear still under 30 knots. Good numerous coverage of
activity developed and will taper off this evening as cold front
drives southeast. Bulk of activity across south half of the CWA tied
to 850-700 mb theta-e moisture axis pre-frontal trough, which is
already in the process of pulling east. Farther north, more of a
solid line of showers thunderstorms with the actual cold front,
where a continued isolated marginal severe storm threat exists, as
the instability is embedded within the 30 knots of effective wind
shear. Enough updraft strength CAPE values to support some hail as
well, despite high freezing levels (~15 kft) wet bulb zero heights.

Activity will slide southeast and come to an end this evening as the
front clears the state by midnight.

Much drier and cooler air to follow for Tuesday-Wednesday, as pw
values lower to around half an inch for the mid week period.

Favorable radiating conditions to allow mins to drop into the 50s
both Tuesday night and Wednesday night, with even upper 40s likely
in the normally colder locations, which could set the stage for
patchy fog, mainly around the warm inland lakes.

Abundant sunshine tomorrow and 850 mb temps climbing back into 12-14
c range favors highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with
similar perhaps slightly cooler temps for Wednesday with the cooler
start to the day.

Thursday will be the final day of dry, pleasant weather as surface
high pressure moves east of the region while shortwave ridging
traverses the region ahead of an approaching upper low. The upper
low is then progged to move into the region on Friday before
stalling over the region through the upcoming weekend. Increasing
moisture accompanying the upper low with pwats in excess of 1.5
inches will support persistent shower and thunderstorm chances
Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will remain near average through
the extended period with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and
lows in the 60s.

Marine...

scattered to numerous thunderstorms through this evening as a cold
front tracks through the central great lakes. Modest southerly winds
through the daylight period, then turning northwesterly tonight
behind the front. Some increase in wind speeds will occur overnight
through Tuesday, but with gusts at 20 knots or less. Winds ease
Wednesday under building high pressure. This high will sustain
tranquil marine conditions through thursdsay.

Hydrology...

numerous showers and thunderstorms will result in pockets of heavy
downpours through this evening. Due to the slow-moving nature of the
storms, localized amounts up to one inch will be possible. However,
basin average totals are forecast to remain near or below one half
of an inch.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf jd
marine... ... .Jvc
hydrology... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi44 min WNW 8 G 12 76°F 1012.2 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi44 min WNW 5.8 G 7.8 76°F 76°F1010.5 hPa (+0.5)
AGCM4 25 mi44 min 71°F 1011.4 hPa (+0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi64 min WNW 8 G 9.9 79°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi44 min 73°F 1010.9 hPa (+0.3)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi44 min WNW 6 G 8.9 72°F 1011.1 hPa (+0.4)69°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi51 minNW 710.00 miA Few Clouds73°F64°F76%1011.6 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi1.8 hrsW 410.00 miFair73°F70°F91%1011.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi49 minWNW 910.00 miFair74°F64°F71%1012.9 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmCalmSW3CalmSW3SW5SW6SW5SW8SW6NW8S9SW5SW6SW5N10CalmS3CalmW3W6W5NW7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm3NW4SE5S6SE5SE9S7SE7SE3CalmW5S6NW4CalmSE4
2 days agoS5CalmCalmSW6SW3SW3SW4SW6W5W8W8W7W76NW8NW9NW5NW5NW8W5CalmNW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.