Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Farms, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:47AMSunset 6:45PM Thursday October 18, 2018 10:54 PM EDT (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 3:11PMMoonset 12:27AM Illumination 71% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Pm Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
Rest of tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots after midnight...then diminishing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Sunny in the morning becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots in the late evening and early morning...then becoming west 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny until late afternoon becoming cloudy. A chance of light showers in the morning...then light showers likely and a chance of light snow showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Saturday night..Northwest winds 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 20 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly cloudy early in the evening becoming mostly clear. Light showers likely and a chance of light snow showers early in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Mostly Sunny until late afternoon becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201810190915;;396521 FZUS63 KDTX 190202 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 PM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.50 inches, will continue to extend into the southern Great Lakes while building across the Ohio valley this afternoon. High pressure holds there as the next low pressure system, 29.40 inches, moves into northern Ontario tonight. The low then continues across northern Ontario Friday and then deepens to 29.10 inches over northern Quebec while pulling a strong cold front across the central Great Lakes. A Gale Watch is in effect Friday and Friday night for this system. LCZ460-190915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Farms, MI
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location: 42.4, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 182344
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
744 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions will continue through tonight and into tomorrow
afternoon. High pressure set up to the southeast and a surface low
pressure beginning to enter western ontario will maintain southwest
winds around 10 knots across southeast michigan. Very dry airmass
will keep clear skies through tonight. Increasing clouds beginning
tomorrow afternoon ahead of the upper trough as it digs into the
western great lakes.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 317 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
discussion...

cold and very dry airmass in place (12z dtx sounding indicated pw
value of 0.24 inches 42 percent of normal), and flint just missed
the daily record low by 2 degrees this morning.

Strong southwest flow developing ahead of approaching cold front, as
upper level ridge axis moves over the central great lakes tonight.

Expansive high pressure over the eastern two thirds of united states
has limited deeper moisture to the southern gulf coast states, and
it will be a struggle to transport any appreciable moisture this far
north by the time the cold front swings through Friday evening.

Still, strong enough isentropic ascent and enough low level
convergence fgen forcing to saturate the low levels with a good
chance of light rain showers. Clouds quickly increasing and
thickening up during the afternoon probably enough to keep maxes
under 60 degrees, as 925 mb temps seen lowering to around 7 c by late
afternoon.

Strong upper level PV anomaly descending from northwest territories
will deliver a strong shot of cold air for the weekend, but post wave
subsidence will likely overwhelm what looks to be favorable lake
effect snow environment Saturday evening. Enough instability
(mlcapes of 200-300 j kg) during the day ahead of the wave to support
scattered to numerous rain showers, and with 850 mb temps lowering
to -4 c or colder, graupel is also likely. Well mixed boundary layer
during the day looks to support wind gusts of at least 30 mph as
well (per local probabilistic guidance), especially embedded within
any convective showers.

Although there will be a northwest trajectory Saturday night, will
have to keep an eye out for the port huron area for lake huron
band(s) possibly brushing the coastline. 1000-850 mb thicknesses at
or below 1288 dam supports snow as precip type just about everywhere,
except downwind right near the milder waters of lake huron.

Relatively quiet weather is forecasted through the extended period
as a series of high pressure systems influence the great lakes
region. An upper-level pattern change from meridional flow to zonal
flow will help better regulate temperatures Sunday into the early
half of next week, as temperatures return into the 50s for a daytime
high Monday into Wednesday. Cooler temperatures in the 40s, focused
mainly over the thumb, will be possible Thursday into Friday as an
upper-level trough amplifies over the northeastern u.S., allowing
for some cooler northerly flow to push in across SE mi. Otherwise,
only the slight chance for precipitation will exist along the
coastal areas of the thumb during the mid to late week period as
some weak northwest flow will provide the slight chance to see lake
effect drizzle.

Marine...

fresh southwest breeze will become strong tonight through Friday
with sustained near-gales likely over the central axis of lake
huron... Including saginaw bay. The stable fetch will tend to limit
gustiness ensuring gusts to occasional marginal gales tonight. Gale
warnings are then in effect for Friday as southwest wind increases
and eventually transitions to gusty northwest flow in the wake of
the cold front.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 2 pm Friday to 4 am edt Saturday for lhz362-363-
421-462-463.

Gale watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night for
lhz464.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for lhz441>443.

Gale watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for
lhz361.

Small craft advisory until 1 am edt Sunday for lhz422.

Small craft advisory until 2 pm edt Friday for lhz421.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Aa
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Sf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 5 mi55 min SSW 6 G 8 46°F 1026.8 hPa (-1.3)
45147 - Lake St Clair 11 mi55 min SW 16 G 18 51°F 53°F2 ft1026.8 hPa (-1.2)
AGCM4 25 mi55 min 49°F 55°F1025.8 hPa (-1.6)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 43 mi55 min SSW 16 G 17 51°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 47 mi55 min 46°F 1024.8 hPa (-1.8)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 49 mi55 min SW 9.9 G 15 44°F 1024.6 hPa (-2.0)29°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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N6
G11
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G19
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G14

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI7 mi62 minSW 910.00 miFair46°F28°F51%1027.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI15 mi2 hrsSSW 610.00 miFair42°F31°F67%1027.8 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI18 mi60 minSW 910.00 miFair48°F27°F45%1027.1 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW6W6N3N5NW4N4N3CalmCalmCalmSW4W3W6SW6W8SW8SW10W11
G15
SW12W11SW8SW9SW7SW9
1 day agoSW10SW10--SW10SW13
G18
SW11SW7W10W7W4W4W8W9NW11
G19
NW15
G23
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G21
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NW14NW6W5
2 days agoW4W5W5W3SW5W3SW5SW3SW4SW6SW5SW8SW14
G22
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W13
G25
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G23
SW15
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G24
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G22
SW12SW11SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.