Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for South Haven, MI
May 7, 2024 3:19 PM EDT (19:19 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:28 AM Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 5:01 AM Moonset 7:47 PM |
LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1105 Am Edt Tue May 7 2024
Rest of today - Southeast winds around 20 knots veering south late in the day. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms through early afternoon, then rain showers with Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots veering northwest 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Thursday - North winds 15 to 20 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 4 to 6 feet.
Friday - Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Saturday - West winds around 15 knots veering northwest late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ800
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Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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FXUS63 KGRR 071718 AFDGRR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Afternoon-evening thunderstorms, possibly severe
- Rain on Thursday and Saturday
UPDATE
Issued at 957 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The going forecast is on track and no changes are planned.
Regional radar shows a band of slowly weakening convection stretching from Wisconsin south to the IL/IN border. As this convection moves east, it should continue to weaken as it moves into stable air over the cwa. However, this convection is also the leading edge of the warm front and once it moves by, we'll likely destabilize fairly quickly. Incoming short wave noted on water vapor imagery will help to generate stronger storms with some severe potential too, especially across the southern cwa. All modes of severe will be possible due to strong shear and decent helicity.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
- Afternoon-evening thunderstorms, possibly severe
On the southeast periphery of a maturing low over the Dakotas, a 500 mb trough and vorticity maximum will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes today. Upper level height falls and an approaching left exit region of a 250 mb jet streak will broadly support ascent and cooling in the midlevels. In the lower levels, the nose of a southerly 850 mb jet will slide through northern Indiana and southern Michigan while a surface warm front is expected to progress northward to roughly a Muskegon-Jackson line during the afternoon. A frontal triple point and possibly a deepening surface pressure field is expected in the vicinity of Chicago/Milwaukee by late afternoon.
Ongoing line of thunderstorms marching from the Plains to Mississippi river valley overnight is expected to arrive in southwest Lower Michigan around 11 AM to Noon and progress northeastward toward Clare by 3-4 PM while weakening as it moves into a more stable environment. Severe weather is not likely with this first round, though lightning may still be a hazard for southwest locations. In its wake, rapid moistening of the low levels (through some combination of rainfall and advection) along with cooling mid-upper levels (with the arrival of the 500 mb trough) is likely to support development of scattered thunderstorms (possibly severe) between 4-10 PM, even if there is considerable cloud cover.
HRRR mean surface-based CAPE in southwest Michigan reaches 1000 J/kg by 5 PM, south of a Muskegon-Jackson line, though even if convective inhibition of the surface remains high, there may be a less-inhibited effective unstable layer above the surface on both sides of the warm front.
Most of the CAMs show similar character of convection this evening, with a mode of scattered to numerous cells of small to moderate width evolving into clusters across southern Michigan, and perhaps other quasi-linear thunderstorms farther north crossing Lake Michigan. These storms should be strongly sheared, given an expected 0-3 km wind difference of 30 to 40 knots. The magnitude of 0-1 km streamwise vorticity available for the given storm motion is questionable, however. There may be cells which briefly encounter a more favorable environment to attain supercell characteristics, perhaps in vicinity of the warm front, or with less predictable environmental modification from preceding cells or interactions between cells. Can't really rule out any severe hazard in this environment, though the most likely limiting factors may be if potential instability isn't realized or if updraft width remains modest.
- Rain on Thursday and Saturday
A couple shortwave troughs will result in chances for showers peaking Thursday and Saturday. Confidence is above average with good model agreement and ensemble support. One trend that has been noted since yesterday is a further south shift in the track of the low on Thursday which could mean the rain stays south of central Lower Michigan. This is not yet completely reflected in the current grids.
An area of mid-level frontogenesis north of a low pressure center tracking across the Ohio Valley will result in rain moving in late Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday afternoon. Northerly flow on the back side of the low will advect in a cool Canadian airmass. We will have to watch for frost potential if skies clear out Thursday night.
Shortwave ridging should continue the fair weather for Friday into Friday night but clouds will be moving in after midnight as the next shortwave trough approaches, with rain moving back in for Saturday.
The trough cits off into a 500 mb low across our area by Saturday and there could be some diurnal enhancement of the showers Saturday afternoon. Given the steep lapse rates, some thunder is possible and even some hail with any deeper updrafts.
The low lifts out gradually early next week but there is low confidence on how quick the showers end, with model differences and ensemble spread increasing after Sunday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be just clearing the terminals near 18z. Additional thunderstorm development is likely with this afternoon and evening, especially near and south of GRR. Thunderstorms bring the potential of locally IFR conditions and gusty winds and hail. Have added VCTS along with a TEMPO group for the highest confidence window. A few hours of MVFR cigs is possible post showers and storms near I96 before skies become MVFR with the exception of MKG who should keep MVFR until tomorrow morning. Southeast winds become southwest tonight into tomorrow generally 7-12 knots and locally higher in TSRA.
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
East-southeasterly winds today become southerly this evening and southwesterly tonight. Hazards to boaters will come from thunderstorms crossing over and/or developing over Lake Michigan between 11 AM and 9 PM. These may produce lightning, hail, or stronger winds.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Afternoon-evening thunderstorms, possibly severe
- Rain on Thursday and Saturday
UPDATE
Issued at 957 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
The going forecast is on track and no changes are planned.
Regional radar shows a band of slowly weakening convection stretching from Wisconsin south to the IL/IN border. As this convection moves east, it should continue to weaken as it moves into stable air over the cwa. However, this convection is also the leading edge of the warm front and once it moves by, we'll likely destabilize fairly quickly. Incoming short wave noted on water vapor imagery will help to generate stronger storms with some severe potential too, especially across the southern cwa. All modes of severe will be possible due to strong shear and decent helicity.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
- Afternoon-evening thunderstorms, possibly severe
On the southeast periphery of a maturing low over the Dakotas, a 500 mb trough and vorticity maximum will move from the central Plains to the western Great Lakes today. Upper level height falls and an approaching left exit region of a 250 mb jet streak will broadly support ascent and cooling in the midlevels. In the lower levels, the nose of a southerly 850 mb jet will slide through northern Indiana and southern Michigan while a surface warm front is expected to progress northward to roughly a Muskegon-Jackson line during the afternoon. A frontal triple point and possibly a deepening surface pressure field is expected in the vicinity of Chicago/Milwaukee by late afternoon.
Ongoing line of thunderstorms marching from the Plains to Mississippi river valley overnight is expected to arrive in southwest Lower Michigan around 11 AM to Noon and progress northeastward toward Clare by 3-4 PM while weakening as it moves into a more stable environment. Severe weather is not likely with this first round, though lightning may still be a hazard for southwest locations. In its wake, rapid moistening of the low levels (through some combination of rainfall and advection) along with cooling mid-upper levels (with the arrival of the 500 mb trough) is likely to support development of scattered thunderstorms (possibly severe) between 4-10 PM, even if there is considerable cloud cover.
HRRR mean surface-based CAPE in southwest Michigan reaches 1000 J/kg by 5 PM, south of a Muskegon-Jackson line, though even if convective inhibition of the surface remains high, there may be a less-inhibited effective unstable layer above the surface on both sides of the warm front.
Most of the CAMs show similar character of convection this evening, with a mode of scattered to numerous cells of small to moderate width evolving into clusters across southern Michigan, and perhaps other quasi-linear thunderstorms farther north crossing Lake Michigan. These storms should be strongly sheared, given an expected 0-3 km wind difference of 30 to 40 knots. The magnitude of 0-1 km streamwise vorticity available for the given storm motion is questionable, however. There may be cells which briefly encounter a more favorable environment to attain supercell characteristics, perhaps in vicinity of the warm front, or with less predictable environmental modification from preceding cells or interactions between cells. Can't really rule out any severe hazard in this environment, though the most likely limiting factors may be if potential instability isn't realized or if updraft width remains modest.
- Rain on Thursday and Saturday
A couple shortwave troughs will result in chances for showers peaking Thursday and Saturday. Confidence is above average with good model agreement and ensemble support. One trend that has been noted since yesterday is a further south shift in the track of the low on Thursday which could mean the rain stays south of central Lower Michigan. This is not yet completely reflected in the current grids.
An area of mid-level frontogenesis north of a low pressure center tracking across the Ohio Valley will result in rain moving in late Wednesday night and continuing through Thursday afternoon. Northerly flow on the back side of the low will advect in a cool Canadian airmass. We will have to watch for frost potential if skies clear out Thursday night.
Shortwave ridging should continue the fair weather for Friday into Friday night but clouds will be moving in after midnight as the next shortwave trough approaches, with rain moving back in for Saturday.
The trough cits off into a 500 mb low across our area by Saturday and there could be some diurnal enhancement of the showers Saturday afternoon. Given the steep lapse rates, some thunder is possible and even some hail with any deeper updrafts.
The low lifts out gradually early next week but there is low confidence on how quick the showers end, with model differences and ensemble spread increasing after Sunday.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/
Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue May 7 2024
Line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be just clearing the terminals near 18z. Additional thunderstorm development is likely with this afternoon and evening, especially near and south of GRR. Thunderstorms bring the potential of locally IFR conditions and gusty winds and hail. Have added VCTS along with a TEMPO group for the highest confidence window. A few hours of MVFR cigs is possible post showers and storms near I96 before skies become MVFR with the exception of MKG who should keep MVFR until tomorrow morning. Southeast winds become southwest tonight into tomorrow generally 7-12 knots and locally higher in TSRA.
MARINE
Issued at 400 AM EDT Tue May 7 2024
East-southeasterly winds today become southerly this evening and southwesterly tonight. Hazards to boaters will come from thunderstorms crossing over and/or developing over Lake Michigan between 11 AM and 9 PM. These may produce lightning, hail, or stronger winds.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| SVNM4 - South Haven, MI | 1 mi | 40 min | ESE 16G | 66°F | ||||
| 45168 | 3 mi | 40 min | SE 12G | 61°F | 52°F | 1 ft | 29.58 | 55°F |
| SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI | 24 mi | 80 min | SSW 1.9G | 70°F | 29.61 | |||
| HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI | 26 mi | 50 min | E 16G | 64°F | 50°F | 29.56 | 59°F | |
| 45029 | 35 mi | 40 min | SE 12G | 59°F | 53°F | 1 ft | 56°F | |
| MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI | 57 mi | 30 min | E 9.9G | 60°F | 29.59 | 59°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KLWA SOUTH HAVEN AREA RGNL,MI | 3 sm | 24 min | SE 09G14 | 10 sm | Overcast | 68°F | 63°F | 83% | 29.58 | |
| KBEH SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN RGNL,MI | 20 sm | 26 min | SE 11G20 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 72°F | 63°F | 73% | 29.57 |
Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI,
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