Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Haven, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:33AMSunset 8:05PM Sunday March 26, 2017 2:46 PM EDT (18:46 UTC) Moonrise 5:59AMMoonset 5:36PM Illumination 1% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ844 St Joseph To South Haven Mi- 1035 Am Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Rest of today..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots late in the day. Showers through early afternoon, then a chance of showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tonight..West winds 5 to 15 knots. Cloudy. A chance of showers in the evening. Areas of fog overnight. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northwest winds around 10 knots veering east, then backing north late in the day. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
LMZ844 Expires:201703262115;;109880 FZUS53 KGRR 261435 NSHGRR NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS MI 1035 AM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ844-262115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Haven, MI
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location: 42.4, -86.27     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 261737
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
137 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
rain will continue today and tonight as low pressure moves across
lower michigan. The rain will taper off Monday morning but then
another low approaches by Monday afternoon with more wet weather.

High pressure and drier weather arrives on Tuesday.

Update
Issued at 1057 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
not much change to the forecast needed this morning. We have more
widespread showers flowing in over the area out ahead of the
surface front that is current positioned over central indiana. We
expect showers to be plentiful through the early afternoon hours
before the deeper moisture departs. Then we will see more of the
convective type pcpn develop in association with the upper low
that is currently over il.

We are not expecting much in the way of sunshine to help
destabilize the atmosphere. Some instability will be present as
some warmer air advects in and the the upper low moves overhead.

Fcst instability parameters shows we could see a few hundred j/kg
of CAPE at best, which is maybe a bit overdone given the models
are over-forecasting temps to start with this morning. The
soundings show this CAPE is a bit thin on the soundings, and wind
shear is lacking.

Short term (today through Tuesday)
issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
kept categorical pops much of today as southerly fetch of deep
moisture continues along with isentropic ascent north of sfc warm
front. The front lifts north by afternoon with enough instability
to bring back the chance of thunder across the southern half of
the forecast area this afternoon.

Sfc low tracks across lower michigan and pulls away to the
northeast tonight with some drying out by Monday morning. This is
short lives as another low ejecting out of the base the longwave
western CONUS trough quickly follows for Monday afternoon and
night. The precip shield is progged to extend into the southern
half of the forecast area as the sfc center tracks just south of
lower michigan.

Northerly flow and drying/sfc ridging will arrive on the back side
of the low on Tuesday with showers ending by afternoon.

Long term (Tuesday night through Saturday)
issued at 317 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
fair wx will finally return Tuesday night through midweek as a
canadian high pressure ridge to the north takes hold of our wx
pattern. Temperatures will return to near normal for this time of
year by midweek as well.

A bit more uncertainty now exists in terms of the fcst for late
in the week as the operational 00z GFS guidance solution now
suggests that the ridge would remain in control of our wx pattern
through Thursday and Friday with the low pressure system emerging
out of the southern plains states staying well south of our region
late in the week.

Conversely the 00z ECMWF guidance still suggests that the low
pressure system will move much further north and bring our area rain
late in the week. This notion has been supported by a consensus of
most medium range guidance the past several days and the evolution
of the upper level pattern late in the week also favors this
scenario.

Therefore we see the 00z GFS as an outlier solution and we will
maintain chc pops for rain late in the week. Temps should remain
rather close to normal for this time of year late in the week into
next weekend.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Monday afternoon)
issued at 137 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017
we continue to have widespread ifr ceilings with areas of showers,
some locally heavy. Once the occluded front gets through around
00z the periods of rain should end but low clouds and fog is
expected into mid morning Monday.

The threat of thunderstorms is more over the eastern sections of
mi than our area so I did not put vcts in the grr TAF set for this
afternoon.

Marine
Issued at 715 am edt Sun mar 26 2017
winds have diminished and the small craft advisory is cancelled.

Do not expect any waves to winds to pose a hazard to small craft
through Monday night.

Hydrology
Issued at 307 pm edt Sat mar 25 2017
locally over one inch of rain has fallen particularly over the
eastern reaches of the grand river, as well as the thornapple river,
maple river, looking glass river, and sycamore creek. Additional
rainfall through Sunday will continue to aid in boosting river
levels for these areas. Above bankfull rises are anticipated over
the next few days for ionia, hastings, maple rapids, eagle, and
holt. Another round of rain toward the end of the week may ensure
that these rivers remain near or above bankfull. We will continue to
monitor the trends.

Grr watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Njj
synopsis... Ostuno
short term... Ostuno
long term... Laurens
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... Hoving
marine... Ostuno


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 1 mi37 min SE 11 G 13 54°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 26 mi47 min E 12 G 14
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi27 min E 12 G 13 45°F 1012.1 hPa44°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Last
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E19
G33
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S6
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NE14
G19
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NE15
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G27
NE17
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S13
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G18
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G24
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G28
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S12
SW10
G13
S6
S11
S3
S3

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI3 mi50 minSSE 47.00 miLight Rain54°F52°F96%1011.2 hPa
Benton Harbor, Southwest Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi54 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast56°F53°F90%1010.9 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE12
G15
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SE8E8E10E8SE8E6E7E6SE7SE7SE6SE5
1 day agoSW14
G26
SW13
G22
SW12
G18
CalmNW7N5CalmCalmNW8
G20
S4NE3E5E4NE6E5E5E9E7E8E11
G14
E12
G17
E10
G16
E10
G15
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2 days agoSE10
G16
SE11
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SE7SE7
G14
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G24
CalmCalmSE6S7S7S11
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G20
SW13
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SW11
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G29
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G26
SW19
G24

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.