Tuesday, November21, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 4:28PM Tuesday November 21, 2017 6:55 AM EST (11:55 UTC) Moonrise 10:25AMMoonset 8:07PM Illumination 8% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 320 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas around 2 ft. Rain likely after midnight.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw with gusts up to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon. Chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less, then around 2 ft in the afternoon.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
ANZ300 320 Am Est Tue Nov 21 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. A cold front passes through early Wednesday followed by high pressure. A warm front will lift through on Saturday, followed by a cold front Saturday night.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 211138
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
638 am est Tue nov 21 2017

Synopsis
Fair and mild today with temperatures rising into the upper 40s
to mid 50s ahead of an approaching cold front. The front will
sweep across the region late tonight into Wednesday bringing
some snow and rain showers to the area. A more seasonable air
mass will be ushered back in with mainly fair weather then
expected through Friday.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Mild, fair and breezy today ahead of an approaching cold front.

Adjusted temperatures based on observational data; current
readings vary across the area ranging from quite chilly to mild.

Ridge axis, upper and surface, shifts off the coast and deep
southwest flow develops advecting warmer air into the region.

Southerly flow will develop this morning and become breezy as
the gradient pressure tightens across the region between the
approaching cold front and departing ridge. South to southwest
winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to around 30 mph.

These winds and sunshine will help boost temperatures into the
upper 40s to mid 50s; around 10 degrees above normal.

Short term 6 pm this evening through Thursday night
Fair weather for thanksgiving.

Sharp northern stream short wave trough will approach tonight
and move overhead Wednesday as it shears out. In the meantime,
a piece of southern stream energy and its associated surface low
will remain well off the coast as it quickly heads northeastward
off the southeast coast.

Clouds will be in the increase in the evening with chances for
snow and rain showers increasing mainly after midnight as the
cold front moves into the region from the west and some moisture
is drawn into the region from the coastal low. Showers will
taper off in the afternoon lingering the longest across the
higher terrain. QPF amounts are expected to be light with about
a quarter of an inch across the western adirondacks with lesser
amounts elsewhere. Light snowfall accumulations of 1-2 inches
are expected across the western adirondacks with less than an
inch for areas generally above 1500 feet.

With the passage of the cold front a more seasonable air mass
will be ushered back in on brisk and gusty west-northwest winds.

Areas generally west of the hudson river valley will experience
little if any rise in temperatures Wednesday while east of the
valley temperatures will rise some before dropping off later in
the day.

Upper flow is expected to go briefly flat Wednesday night across
the region between short waves rotating about the upper low
over hudson's bay. The next short wave trough will not be as
deep and will pass to our north across eastern canada Thursday
night. While at the surface higher pressure builds in. The
result will be fair weather with below normal temperatures
Wednesday night and thanksgiving day. Chances for any snow
showers are expected to limited to portions of the western
adirondacks thanksgiving night with seasonable lows as winds
shift to the southwest.

Long term Friday through Monday
Good model agreement that the progressive pattern continues into the
long term period with the mean hudson bay upper low remaining
dominant. Disturbances pinwheeling around the low have favored a
storm track along or north of the st. Lawrence valley recently, at
it appears that will continue to be the case. Little evidence at
this time that any southern stream energy will phase with the
northern stream.

Friday appears to be a tranquil and seasonable day. Upper heights
will rise in conjunction with shortwave energy tracking across the
northern great lakes region. Attendant surface low looks to track
well north into northern quebec, dragging its front across the
forecast area on Saturday. Midlevel forcing will augment the front
and result in shower potential, but it appears to be a low-qpf
scenario ATTM given lack of moisture source and progressive forcing.

Given the storm track, a p-type of rain is favored over most areas
Saturday, with a tendency to mix with snow with time later Saturday
into Saturday night, mainly at elevation. Additional shortwave
energy is forecast to carve out a deepening upper trough over the
greater northeast Sunday and Monday. H850 temps progged to fall to -
10 to -15c, or possibly a bit lower as shown by the 00z ecmwf, by
Sunday night. These values are 1 to 2 sd below normal. This will
allow for a lake response Sunday into Sunday night, with flow
trajectories veering from NW to nnw. Some synoptic forcing with the
reinforcing wave could carry some showers further inland than the
normal lake effect upslope favored areas Sunday. It appears height
rises build in Monday, allowing lake effect to diminish.

Aviation 12z Tuesday through Saturday
Aside from a few high clouds, mainly clear skies are expected
to prevail throughout the day. An approaching cold front will
allow clouds to increase and lower somewhat late tonight, but
vfr is expected to prevail throughout the TAF period.

Low-level wind shear is likely being seen at the terminals this
morning with nearly calm winds at the surface and west-southwest
winds around 35 kt at 2000 ft agl. With diurnal mixing, winds
may get a bit gusty late this morning into the afternoon, with
gusts of 20-30 kt possible, strongest at kalb. Winds will
diminish this evening, with low-level wind shear likely once
again at the terminals overnight.

Outlook...

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thanksgiving day: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Sunday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
South to southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to around
30 mph at times today with minimum relative humidity values
in the 30s this afternoon.

Fair and mild today ahead of an approaching cold front. The front
will sweep across the region late tonight into Wednesday bringing
some snow and rain showers to the area. A more seasonable air mass
will be ushered back in with mainly fair weather then expected
through Friday.

Hydrology
No hydrologic problems are expected this week.

Fair and milder weather today with some rain and snow showers
late tonight into Wednesday as a cold front crosses the region.

Qpf amounts are expected to be light with about a quarter of an
inch across the western adirondacks with lesser amounts elsewhere.

With the passage of the cold front a more seasonable air mass
will be ushered back in with mainly fair weather then expected
through Friday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Iaa
near term... Iaa
short term... Iaa
long term... Thompson
aviation... Thompson
fire weather... Iaa
hydrology... Iaa


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi85 min 37°F 1017 hPa24°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi37 min W 4.1 G 5.1 42°F 50°F1020.5 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi43 min W 1 G 5.1 41°F 51°F1019.7 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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SW15
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E4
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SW9
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi64 minVar 310.00 miA Few Clouds35°F23°F61%1017.2 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW12W8W10W8Calm3NW3W8W12W13
G20
W5
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W7W5CalmS3CalmCalmS6S7S6S9S5S63
1 day agoS15
G23
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G49
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W8W8W10W8W6W12NW12
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2 days agoSE3CalmSW36S5S8S13
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G26

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:08 AM EST     0.13 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:01 AM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:16 PM EST     0.54 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:22 PM EST     5.16 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.51.52.53.33.843.72.821.61.10.60.81.734.14.85.154.232.11.4

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:35 AM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 AM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:24 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 12:43 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:39 PM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.10.722.93.53.93.732.11.510.50.312.33.64.44.954.43.22.21.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.