Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday March 30, 2017 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 738 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning...
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of light rain late this evening. Chance of rain after midnight... Then rain likely late.
Fri..E winds 10 to 15 kt...increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft...building to 2 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Rain. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Sat..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Rain likely...mainly in the morning.
Sat night..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt... Diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft in the evening...then 1 ft or less.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds around 5 kt...becoming se. Seas 1 ft or less... Then around 2 ft after midnight. Chance of rain in the evening. Rain likely after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt...becoming n. Seas around 2 ft...then 1 ft or less. Rain likely in the daytime...then chance of rain in the evening.
ANZ300 738 Pm Edt Thu Mar 30 2017
Synopsis for long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure will impact the area tonight through Saturday. High pressure builds in for the second half of the weekend. Another low pressure system may impact the waters Monday night and Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 302035
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
435 pm edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
Clouds will increase this evening ahead of an approaching
storm system that will bring snow, rain, sleet and freezing rain to
the region for late tonight through Saturday morning. Some areas,
especially northern and high terrain areas, may see significant
snowfall from this storm.

Near term /through Friday/
Quite a complex forecast with the incoming winter storm system.

However, for the rest of the evening, expect dry weather and a
continued increase in mid to high level clouds as the system
approaches. Temperatures this afternoon have reached the lower
40s to lower 50s but are expected to drop into the upper 20s and
lower 30s before precipitation begins.

Large scale pattern shows cut off low lifting slowly through
missouri with large swaths of precip and convection out ahead of
it. The piece of energy that is expected to bring us mixed
precipitation late tonight is currently lifting through northern
pa/western ny. Depending on how quickly it arrives, it could
briefly start out as rain but quickly change over to a snow up
north and a wintery mix south and west of the capital district.

This is due to a low level jet that is expected to develop out
of the south at 30-35 kts. A quick 1 to 3 inches of heavy wet
snow will be possible by the morning commute in many locations.

Cannot rule out higher amounts if enough cold air is trapped at
the surface as QPF amounts of up to 0.75" are possible by 8am
across the central portion of the forecast area.

A wintry mix of precipitation will continue throughout the day
tomorrow as a surface low develops off the mid-atlantic
coastline and moisture continues to get wrapped into the region
from the atlantic. The upper level cut off low will track to our
south throughout the day, continuing to wrap moisture into new
york. There is still uncertainty with the precip type as both
the gfs/ecmwf remain colder aloft (and bring us more snow) but
the NAM has been persistent with the warm air aloft (and mixed
precip). So have went with a blend of all three models for the
current forecast. This has prompted a winter weather advisory to
be issued for the entire area except the lower hudson valley
and a winter storm warning to be issued for windham county, vt
where 8 to 12 inches of snow is possible. The lower hudson
valley should see mainly rain, however, any heavier bursts of
precip could allow for snow or sleet to mix in or changeover
from time to time, as the heavier precip forces the temperature
profile to go isothermal.

Snow ratios will be poor, due to the wet and melting nature of
the snowflakes and the dendritic growth zone being so high up.

The heavy wet snow could result in some power outages. It's
still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to
the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.

However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls
hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

Short term /Friday night through Saturday/
Precip will continue through Saturday morning, as the secondary
surface low develops off the ma coastline. This should aid in
allowing the temps aloft to start to cool off, and end the
threat for sleet from north to south by Saturday morning. As
the storm starts to track away Saturday afternoon, just some
lingering rain and snow showers are expected, but the bulk of
the accumulation should be done by Saturday morning.

Valley areas could see up to 6 inches of snowfall, with 6 to 12
inches possible for higher terrain areas. However, with the
uncertainty of precip type, snowfall amounts could change. Stay
tuned to your national weather service for updates to the
forecast as the situation unfolds.

Long term /Saturday night through Thursday/
A parade of storm systems may bring flood concerns next week...

Saturday night lots of low-level moisture remains across the area as
low pressure is pulling away from new england and high pressure
starts to build in from north of the great lakes. Some residual snow
showers are possible, mainly across the adirondacks and southern
green mountains with lows in the 20s to around 30f.

High pressure controls the weather Sunday and Sunday night and then
moves east Monday. Highs Sunday in the mid 40s to around 50 but
around 40 higher terrain. Lows Monday in the 20s to around
30f. Clouds increase through the day Monday with the approach of
the next system. Highs Monday in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Rain and mixed precipitation is expected to begin Monday night as
temperatures cool to the low to mid 30s. Strengthening warm
advection expected to turn precipitation to rain during the day
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the 40s to near 50. 12z euro further south
with track of system and Tuesday event looks much like event for
tomorrow (Friday) with lots of wintry precipitation. For now, will
stick with a model blend.

Precipitation coverage decreases Tuesday night through Wednesday
but isolated showers/snow showers possible with the gradual exit to
the system and gradual decrease in moisture. High pressure builds
to north of the albany forecast area so temperatures will remain on
the cool side. Lows Wednesday in upper 20s to mid 30s. Highs
Wednesday in the 40s and 50s.

By Thursday, yet another storm system, progged to take a similar
track to the previous two, may bring another round of wintry
precipitation and rain. Lows Thursday generally in the 30s with
highs in the 40s to around 50.

Aviation /19z Thursday through Tuesday/
Vfr conditions expected through this evening. By this evening,
thicker clouds and the leading edge of precipitation ahead of an
approaching area of low pressure are expected to move into our
region. By 06z-09z precipitation will begin, snow at kalb, kpsf and
kgfl but mainly rain at kpou with possibly some snow or sleet mixed
in for a couple of hours. Ceilings will lower to MVFR and
visibilities falling to ifr for a time in moderate snow at kgfl,
kalb and kpsf. Precipitation should remain all snow through 18z at
kgfl, but should transition to a mix of rain, sleet and snow at kalb
and kpsf by late morning.

Winds... North to northeast and light under 10 knots through this
evening. Winds generally light and variable tonight becoming
southeast at less than 10 kts on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Shsn.

Saturday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Tuesday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra... Ra.

Fire weather
Much of eastern new york and western new england continues to
have snow on the ground. Although snow melt has been ongoing
recently and most valley areas only have snow depth of a few
inches, much deeper snowpack remains across the hills and
mountains.

Precipitation is expected tonight through Saturday morning in
the form of rain, snow, sleet and freezing rain.

Hydrology
A series of storm systems will impact the albany hydrologic service
area during the next week. Forecast precipitation across the area
over that period is 2 to 3 inches liquid equivalent. Much of the
precipitation will be frozen Friday into Saturday. Precipitation
type is uncertain for the next event.

For the next 72 hours, the only river point forecast to reach flood
stage is the hudson river at poughkeepsie due to high tides. The
longer range multi-model ensemble river forecast system has a few
points reaching minor flood stage next week Tuesday into Wednesday
as the result of snow melt and additional precipitation.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 5 pm edt Saturday
for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 5 pm edt Saturday
for nyz032-033-038>043-047>054-058-061-063-066-082>084.

Ma... Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 5 pm edt Saturday
for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter weather advisory from 2 am Friday to 5 pm edt Saturday
for vtz013.

Winter storm warning from 5 am Friday to 5 pm edt Saturday for
vtz014-015.

Synopsis... Frugis/jvm
near term... Jvm
short term... Frugis/jvm
long term... Snd
aviation... Snd/nas
fire weather... Frugis/jvm
hydrology... Frugis/jvm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi64 min 45°F 1020 hPa31°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi46 min SW 7 G 8.9 42°F 44°F1021 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi46 min S 6 G 8.9 42°F 1020 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast43°F19°F40%1020.9 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW8NW7NW10NW7NW8N4N4N5NW5N3N3N3N5NE11NE9NE5NE9NE9N8
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4NE3NE8N5Calm
1 day agoCalmN10
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N6N5N8N7N6N6N3NW4N6N5NE6N5NE53CalmNW12
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2 days agoCalmCalmS3S4S3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN3N3S5S4S4S6S6S9S7S8S3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.412.43.955.75.85.34.12.81.91.20.60.71.73.14.355.35.14.22.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.10.31.53.24.65.45.75.54.4321.20.50.30.92.33.74.75.25.24.43.11.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.