Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 4:50PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 2:37 AM EST (07:37 UTC) Moonrise 7:54AMMoonset 5:39PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Overnight..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Isolated flurries late this evening.
Tue..SE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of snow and rain in the afternoon with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Snow likely in the morning. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Fri night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..SW winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 1003 Pm Est Mon Jan 15 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. High pressure to the north of the area will weaken and shift eastward through Tuesday ahead of low pressure approaching from the west and a developing coastal low. The coastal low will move up the coast into the canadian maritimes through Wednesday night, while high pressure builds to the south through the remainder of the week.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 160534
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1234 am est Tue jan 16 2018

Synopsis
A low pressure system will approach from the great lakes tonight
into Tuesday, bringing increasing chances for snow. This system,
combined with a developing coastal low pressure area, is expected
to bring a moderate snowfall to much of the region Tuesday into
Wednesday morning.

Near term through today
As of 1214 am est... Made some minor adjustments to timing of
light snow beginning, as current obs and nys mesonet webcams
indicating snow reaching the ground across the western mohawk
valley and southwest adirondacks. Radar indicating some weak
returns in this area too, so increased pops to likely a few
hours earlier than the last update.

Areas of mid and high level clouds are in place over western
portions of the forecast area patches of lower stratus remnants
from atlantic moisture advection in various places as well.

Expect an increasing cloud trend after midnight. 00z kaly
sounding shows an ample dry layer in the 850-700 mb layer which
should take some time to saturate, so previous forecast idea of
gradually increasing pops from west to east over the course of
the night still looks good. Weak forcing and modest moisture
advection should keep any accumulation overnight minimal,
outside of favored southwesterly upslope regions of the southern
adirondacks where 1-2 inches may fall in spots by 12z. Overall,
forecast is in good shape without any substantial changes
needed.

As the upper level low starts to move eastward, it will open up and
take on a positive tilt. Ahead of this feature, strong s-sw flow
aloft within the mid levels will result in warm air advection for
our area, producing some lift. This lift, aided by upslope flow
across the southern adirondacks, will start to produce some
areas of light snowfall overnight. This snow looks to mainly
impact areas from the mohawk valley on north northeastward, as
downsloping and less forcing should help prevent too much from
occurring for areas south of albany. Most areas won't see much
more than just a coating to half inch overnight, as the snowfall
will be light and fairly intermittent.

As the trough continues to slide eastward, a weak surface low will
be moving from the eastern great lakes and into upstate new york for
during the day Tuesday. With the persistent isentropic lift and
approaching upper level energy, light snowfall will gradually expand
across the region for during the day. This should allow for a
steady light snowfall to develop for most areas from about to
mid to late morning onward. Snowfall doesn't look overly heavy
in intensity, but does look fairly continuous throughout the
day, especially across the higher terrain. Most areas look to
see at least 1 to 3 inches by evening and the evening rush will
likely be slow and difficult in many areas, with more snow to
come during the late evening into the overnight hours as well.

Will include most of the area within a winter weather advisory
and continue winter storm watch for far eastern areas.

Temperatures through the day will mainly be in the 20s. A few spots
in the mid-hudson valley may top out around 30. Light winds for
tonight look to become southerly for during the day Tuesday at
around 5 to 10 mph. Although the snow looks fairly light and
fluffy, the relatively light winds should prevent much blowing and
drifting from occurring.

Short term tonight through Thursday
By Tuesday night, energy is expected to be transferred from the
clipper type system to an area of low pressure south and east
of long island. A positive tilt trough aloft will be advancing
eastward across the lower great lakes and ohio valley region.

This set up looks to be conducive for some mesoscale banding to
develop, and resembles a potential quasi-stationary band pattern
from noted cstar research. Deterministic and ensemble model qpf
has also increased from previous runs, which lends more
confidence to a moderate snowfall event, especially for much of
the area from the foothills of the southern adirondacks south
and east. Due to the best forecast 850-700mb f-gen across SE ny
into western new england, the most likely area for potential
mesoscale banding looks to be across the southern green
mountains of vermont and the berkshires of massachusetts perhaps
as far back as the taconics in eastern new york based on the
cstar research. The snow from the coastal low should persist
through much of Wednesday morning, especially for areas east of
the hudson valley. This system will likely impact the morning
commute for much of the area. Wednesday afternoon, lake effect
snow showers will start to develop downwind of lake ontario as
westerly wind align with conditional lake-induced instability
developing. So scattered snow showers will move back into the
western adirondacks before dark with some light accumulations
possible. Lows Tuesday night will be in the upper single digits
to upper 20s with highs on Wednesday in the upper teens to
around 30.

Lake effect snow showers will continue into Wednesday night
across the western adirondacks, but will be light due to
lowering inversion heights. Otherwise, it will be mainly dry
with near normal temperatures for the rest of the area. Lows
will be in the single digits and teens.

Mainly dry weather is expected on Thursday as high pressure
builds into the region. Temperatures will be seasonable with
highs in the upper teens to lower 30s.

Long term Thursday night through Monday
Mid-level ridging will be in place for the beginning of the weekend
bringing mild temperatures along with it. Apart from the
adirondacks who could see an isolated snow shower on Friday,
eastern new york and western new england look to remain dry
through Saturday. There will be very weak forcing for ascent on
Saturday over the region so there is a possibility some
rain snow showers may have to be added to the forecast as we
approach the weekend.

On Sunday a deep trough will be in place over the central
conus. Negative PV advection resulting from the divergent
outflow of low over the midwest will support
jet-o-genesis ridging over the northeast, further strengthening
the WAA regime over our region. There will be increasing clouds
during the day Sunday with rain pushing into the region late in
the day as the low pressure center progresses northeastward over
the great lakes region. Global guidance suggests an upper-level
cut-off low developing with this system, so many more model
runs will be needed to work out the details with this system.

Highs will increase from the upper 20s (higher terrain) and low
30s (elsewhere) on Friday into the the low 40s (higher terrain)
and high 40s (elsewhere) on Sunday. If the strong WAA regime
materializes, temperatures will likely have to be increased.

There could be some more snow melt and ice jam flood issues with
the warming temperatures and rain next weekend.

Aviation 06z Tuesday through Saturday
Some flurries and patches of light snow are occurring in central
ny but the leading edge of the patches of light snow is not
moving east very quickly. Based on radar and satellite trends as
well as the latest model guidance, there could be some flurries
at kalb and kgfl through daybreak and indicating vcsh there. Any
flurries should wait until after daybreak at kpsf and kpou.

However, some clouds in the MVFR range will persist in many
areas through daybreak and expand to the kgfl and kpsf areas.

The steadier light snow should gradually develop overhead
through the morning and indicated tempo MVFR visibilities and
ceilings mid morning through midday across the region. By
midday and early afternoon, steadier light snow and borderline
MVFR ifr ceilings and visibilities will develop at all taf
sites, with visibilities likely just into ifr at around 2sm -sn.

The snow will become steadier later in the afternoon and
evening so indicating visibilities and ceilings continuing
around the MVFR ifr range.

Winds through mid morning will be light and variable, becoming
southerly at around 5 kt during mid morning through the rest of
the day and evening.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Sn likely.

Wednesday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra.

Hydrology
Ongoing flooding due to ice jams will continue to be addressed
with areal flood warnings. There could still be some lingering
issues as any existing ice jams may tend to become frozen in
place due to the very cold temperatures expected over the next
few days. Warmer weather is not expected until the weekend.

In terms of precipitation, a moderate snowfall is expected for
much of the area from Tuesday into Wednesday, with heavy
snowfall possible from the northern and central taconics east
through western new england.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... Winter storm watch from noon est today through Wednesday
morning for ctz001-013.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 am this morning to 7 am est
Wednesday for nyz032-033-038>043-047>053-058>060-063>066-
082>084.

Winter storm watch from noon est today through Wednesday
morning for nyz054-061.

Ma... Winter storm watch from noon est today through Wednesday
morning for maz001-025.

Vt... Winter storm watch from noon est today through Wednesday
morning for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... 11 jpv
near term... Frugis thompson jpv
short term... 11 jpv
long term... Cebulko
aviation... Nas
hydrology... 11 jpv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi68 min 21°F 1033 hPa11°F
TKPN6 29 mi50 min S 1.9 G 4.1 20°F 32°F10°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi50 min Calm G 2.9 21°F 34°F1033.1 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi56 min N 1.9 G 4.1 20°F 35°F1032.4 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi47 minN 010.00 miOvercast15°F5°F64%1033.2 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N3N5N4N4N5NE4N5N3CalmN4N5N5NE6N5N4N3N3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalm
1 day agoNW7NW7N7N8NW10NW6NW9NW9NW7N6N5NW6N5N5NE6N4N3N4N4N5N5N5N6N5
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Tue -- 03:52 AM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:57 AM EST     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:13 PM EST     5.31 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:39 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 10:34 PM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.62.53.23.73.93.52.72.11.50.80.30.823.24.24.95.35.14.13.12.21.20.20.1

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Tue -- 04:09 AM EST     3.78 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:53 AM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:21 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 10:24 AM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     5.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 04:38 PM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 09:18 PM EST     New Moon
Tue -- 11:01 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.922.83.43.83.52.82.11.60.80.10.21.22.63.74.65.15.14.33.32.41.40.3-0.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.