Friday, September22, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 6:52PM Friday September 22, 2017 8:08 PM EDT (00:08 UTC) Moonrise 9:01AMMoonset 8:28PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 748 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
Tonight..N winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..N winds around 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less.
Sat night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun..NE winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sun night..N winds around 5 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Seas 1 ft or less.
Mon night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Tue night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 748 Pm Edt Fri Sep 22 2017
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Post tropical cyclone jose will meander and weaken to the southeast of long island through Sunday,as high pressure remains centered over the eastern great lakes, and extends into the northeast, into the beginning of next week. Meanwhile, hurricane maria tracks offshore of the east coast. A cold front passes through the region Wednesday night into Thursday. Please refer to national hurricane center products for more details on maria.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 222331
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
731 pm edt Fri sep 22 2017

Synopsis
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
storm jose will remain nearly stationary south of CAPE cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern new york and western new england. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Near term until 6 am Saturday morning
As of 730 pm edt, patchy low mid level clouds continue to stream
west from new england, otherwise skies remain mainly clear.

High pressure remains just north and west of our region, as
post-tropical storm jose meanders off the southeast new england
coast. North to northeast low level flow should slowly ease
through the night as drier low level air advects from north to
south.

Light winds and a clear sky will help temperatures to fall and
fog should form along rivers, lakes and swamps but not spread
much beyond that. Areas of western new england may see more
intervals of high clouds on the northern periphery of the
tropical system along with intervals of light north to northeast
winds.

Lows tonight in the 50s, but 40s northern areas and maybe upper
50s to near 60 mid hudson valley, NW ct and southern berkshires,
where again, there could be some intervals of high clouds and
some light persistent north to northeast low level flow.

Short term 6 am Saturday morning through Monday
Upper ridging builds into the region through Monday with the low
level thermal ridge building south into our region from the
north and northwest. Low level ridging is expected to build
overhead from the west and north as well, causing low level
flow to weaken to light and variable, limiting mixing potential.

Boundary layer temperatures warm to levels that would result in
surface temperatures solidly in the 90s if it were the middle of
summer but the rapidly decreasing Sun angle and the lack of wind
to help with mixing could limit the warming potential. Low level
moisture should increase but with low level flow so weak,
surface dew points may not get as high as guidance suggests.

Temperatures at night may be able to fall to the lower end of
guidance Saturday night and Sunday night as the lack of rain
recently has contributed to relatively dry ground and nights are
getting longer now that we are into autumn.

So, it is tough to say how much mixing we will get as
temperatures upstream in the midwest are getting into the 90s
but in recent days, we just have not been mixing as well as we
have in the summer even with full Sun and at least some wind
during the day.

Still forecasting solid 80s Saturday with some 70s higher
terrain. Even if we do not reach full mixing potential Sunday
and Monday, we should see record high temperatures. The question
is whether we hit 90 in some areas either day or both days.

Full mixing potential if we were in the middle of summer would
suggest possible highs in the mid 90s but again it is autumn,
with light winds and a much lower Sun angle. It may hit 90 but
it will feel quite warm whether we are in the upper 80s or
around 90, with dewpoints at least around 60 if not lower 60s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
Warm and dry conditions initially will transition to more seasonable
temperatures by late next week, with a possibility of some showers
during the transition.

Guidance is in agreement that the strong mid upper tropospheric
ridging over the region will gradually weaken as a trough approaches
from the great lakes region by mid to late week. Hurricane maria is
expected to remain off the east coast, gradually moving
north northeast. Please refer to the national hurricane center for
official forecasts on maria.

Tuesday is expected to remain quite warm and humid, with high
temperatures potentially 20 or more degrees above normal in some
areas. Expect highs in valley areas well into the 80s, and could
approach 90, especially across portions of the upper hudson river
valley and mohawk valley, which may remain slightly farther removed
from any possible marine-modified influence. Isolated showers could
develop across portions of the mid hudson valley and western new
england, perhaps due to some enhanced low level convergence from the
extreme outer edge of maria's circulation. Tuesday night should be
warm and humid with lows mainly in the 60s.

A cold front should move across the region sometime between
Wednesday and Thursday. Forcing looks fairly weak, with the main
upper level trough lagging quite far to the west. Will include
chance pops at this time. Highs Wednesday may still reach the lower
80s in valleys, with mainly 70s across higher terrain. Wed nt Thu am
lows should fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

In the wake of the front, progressively cooler air should move into
the region for later Thursday into Friday, with temperatures
gradually falling back to more seasonable levels. With the main
upper level trough remaining west of the region, some showers may
also persist, especially across northern mountain areas where a
combination of orographic and lake enhanced effects may occur.

Thursday highs should be in the 70s in valleys, and 60s across
higher terrain, with overnight lows Thu nt Fri am falling into the
mid 40s to lower 50s. Highs Friday only in the 60s for valleys, and
50s across most higher elevations.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
Post-tropical storm jose will meander off the southeast new
england coast through Saturday, as high pressure slowly builds
in from the great lakes region.

High level cirrus clouds rotating around the extreme northwest
periphery of post-tropical storm jose moving across the area,
with some stratocu with 3-4 kft based occasionally drifting
across kpsf. Dry air mass in place will lead to mainlyVFR
conditions through the 24 hour TAF period ending 00z Sunday.

However, some fog may develop at kgfl with possible intermittent
MVFR ifr vsby, but dry air in low levels should preclude any
persistent fog.

Vfr conditions are expected during Saturday after any patchy
fog low clouds lift at kgfl between 11z-13z sat.

Winds through early evening will be northerly around 7-12 kt.

Winds will become variable at 5 kt or less later this evening
through the rest of tonight. North to northwest winds will
develop by mid morning Saturday and continue through the
afternoon at 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Tuesday night: no operational impact. No
sig wx.

Wednesday: moderate operational impact. Scattered shra.

Fire weather
High pressure at the surface and aloft will remain parked over
the region through the next several days, providing dry
conditions and continued above normal temperatures. Tropical
storm jose will remain nearly stationary south of CAPE cod, and
will gradually weaken over the next few days with no impacts for
eastern new york and western new england. Temperatures could
reach record high levels Sunday into Monday, as the ridge
strengthens overhead.

Rh values will be in the 75 to 100 percent range tonight and
Saturday night. Rh values will drop to 45 to 60 percent Saturday
afternoon and Sunday afternoon.

North to northeast winds at 15 mph or less will become light
and variable Saturday through Sunday.

Hydrology
No widespread hydrologic issues are expected through the next
week. An extended stretch of fair and warm weather is forecast
well into next week as high pressure dominates.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Climate
Record high temperatures will be possible Sunday and Monday.

Here is a list of the current record highs for september 24 25:
albany ny:
september 24th Sunday: 87 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
daily records date back to 1874
glens falls ny:
september 24th Sunday: 86 degrees 1961
september 25th Monday: 84 degrees 2007
records date back to 1949
poughkeepsie ny:
september 24th Sunday: 91 degrees 1959
september 25th Monday: 89 degrees 1970
records date back to 1949, however data is missing
from january 1993 through july 2000.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Nas
near term... Kl nas
short term... Nas
long term... Kl
aviation... Kl jpv
fire weather... Nas
hydrology... Nas
climate...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi99 min 82°F 1015 hPa59°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi51 min NNE 14 G 19 74°F 72°F1013.8 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi51 min NNE 7 G 11

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi18 minNNW 510.00 miPartly Cloudy68°F52°F57%1017.4 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7N9N6N5N5CalmCalmNW3N4N4N4N3N6N6N8N9N11
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1 day agoN4N5NW4N5NW3N4N4SW3CalmN3N3N5N7N10NE6NE5N8N8N7
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     4.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:46 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 06:58 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.10.11.12.33.34.14.54.53.82.821.10.2-0.10.61.833.94.64.94.43.52.51.7

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Fri -- 12:52 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:42 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:46 AM EDT     4.51 feet High Tide
Fri -- 09:01 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:13 PM EDT     -0.41 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 07:15 PM EDT     4.78 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:28 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.1-0.30.31.62.83.74.34.53.92.921.30.3-0.4-0.11.12.43.54.34.84.63.72.71.8

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.