Monday, November12, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Kinderhook, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 4:36PM Monday November 12, 2018 7:09 PM EST (00:09 UTC) Moonrise 12:11PMMoonset 9:43PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ335 Long Island Sound West Of New Haven Ct/port Jefferson Ny- 334 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 1 am est Tuesday through late Tuesday night...
Tonight..S winds around 5 kt, becoming E after midnight, then becoming se 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt late. Seas 1 ft or less. Rain late this evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm after midnight.
Tue..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Rain in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Wed night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less. Chance of rain in the afternoon.
Thu night..E winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 1 ft or less, then 1 to 2 ft after midnight. Rain likely.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Seas 1 to 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Fri night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
Sat night..W winds around 10 kt. Seas 1 ft or less.
ANZ300 334 Pm Est Mon Nov 12 2018
Synopsis for the long island waters and new york harbor.. Low pressure over the southern states races northeast tonight and passes across the waters Tuesday morning. High pressure builds into the waters from the west Wednesday into Wednesday night. The high retreats to coastal new england Thursday as low pressure approaches from the south. The low moves along the coast and through the waters Thursday night and Friday. High pressure builds in Friday night and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kinderhook, NY
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location: 42.41, -73.77     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 122111
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
411 pm est Mon nov 12 2018

Synopsis
A storm system moving up the eastern seaboard will bring
rain and snow to the region tonight into Tuesday, with the highest
snow accumulation across the high terrain of the adirondacks. Cold
and blustery conditions are expected behind the storm system for
Tuesday night into Wednesday, with some lake-effect snow showers for
western areas. Another storm system will bring more widespread rain
and snow to the area for Thursday into Friday.

Near term until 6 am Tuesday morning
As of 411 pm est... IR satellite imagery shows a large area of
high level clouds building into the northeast from the ohio
valley and mid atlantic, thanks to a broad area of southwest
flow in place over the eastern half of the conus. Two storm
systems will be teaming up to bring a period of active weather
to the region. The first is a shortwave trough diving across the
northern plains and into the great lakes and the second is a
sharp trough moving across texas. Ahead of these features, a
large baroclinic zone will be setting up across the eastern
seaboard and low pressure is in the process of forming across
the deep south and southeastern us.

During the overnight hours, this low pressure area will be
quickly lifting northward towards the mid-atlantic states. Warm
advection should allow for a period of precipitation, probably
beginning around or shortly after midnight across southern areas
and lifting northward through the overnight. Temps aloft are
marginal for rain vs. Snow, and p-type will largely be dependent
on boundary layer temps and precip intensity. Although a brief
period of some wet snowflakes can't be ruled out due to
wet bulbing and evaporate cooling effects, most larger valley
areas (capital region, hudson valley) should see mostly rain, as
surface temps just won't be cool enough for snowfall. However,
high terrain areas, as well as northwest areas (including the
upper and central mohawk valley), should start out as snow and
see some light accumulation by daybreak. Lows temps look to be
in the upper 20s to low 30s for high terrain, with mid to upper
30s for the rest of the area.

Short term 6 am Tuesday morning through Wednesday night
Steady precip should be ongoing on Tuesday morning as low
pressure continues to lift along the coast. With warmer air
moving in (both at the surface and aloft), a changeover to rain
looks to occur for nearly the entire area (with just perhaps the
adirondacks remaining in snow or rain snow mix).

Low pressure should be off the coast of new england by Tuesday
afternoon, which should allow for the steadiest precip to shift
north and east of the area. There may be a few lingering rain or
snow showers, especially in upslope favored areas of the
adirondacks and greens. Otherwise, precip will be ending. Based
off the 12z 3km hrrrx and 12z href, about 3 to 6 inches
(locally up to 8) are expected for the adirondacks. The mohawk
valley may see as much as 2 or 3 inches as well, (especially in
high terrain areas just away from the immediate mohawk river).

While little to no snow is expected below 1000 ft in southern
vt, the highest terrain may see 2 to 5 inches there. Just a
coating to an inch or two is expected for the catskills, as the
changeover will occur quicker there.

With the steady precip and clouds expected, temps will only
reach the mid 30s to mid 40s for most spots on Tuesday, with
highs generally occurring late in the day once precip is
tapering off. Behind the storm, winds will switch to the
northwest and increase by late in the day to 10 to 20 mph.

Cold and breezy conditions are expected for Tuesday night into
Wednesday, as the upper level trough passing by to the north of
the area. 850 hpa temps will lower to -10 to -16 degrees c,
which will allow for a band of lake-effect snow to develop off
lake ontario. With the northwest flow in place, the best
accumulation will occur west of the region across central new
york, but a few inches of snow may scrape into the western
mohawk vally and even into schoharie county and the eastern
catskills. Cannot rule out a few snow showers making it as far
east as the capital region hudson valley late in the overnight
on Tuesday night and into Wednesday morning. Temps will be in
the teens and 20s on Tuesday night and only in the mid 20s to
mid 30s on Wednesday. The strong cold advection will allow for
some gusty winds as well, with a few gusts as high as 30 mph
possible, especially during peak mixing heating on Wednesday.

High pressure moving across the area should allow for winds to
diminish for Wednesday night. With a mostly clear sky and
lighter winds (and snow cover in some areas), good radiational
cooling is expected. Lows will range from the single digits over
the adirondacks to the teens and low 20s elsewhere.

Long term Thursday through Monday
Not much change from the previous long term as a very active and
cool pattern is expected during the long term period.

Most of the attention will be the southern stream system tracking up
the eastern seaboard Thursday night into Friday. NCEP model suite
and international guidance are in rather good synoptic agreement
with developing cutoff low across the lower mississippi river
valley. Deep tropical moisture transport advances northward as
atlantic ridge builds. Meanwhile, 1035+mb surface high across
northern new england will likely keep the lower level colder air in
place as wet bulb zero profiles appear to keep it colder. So clouds
will increase Thursday with light snow developing Thursday night and
continuing overnight. Potential for an accumulating snowfall event
for most of the region, however, low confidence in QPF placement.

Surface low tracks just off the nj coastline Friday as thermal
profiles do moderate as h850 temperatures rise above 0c along and
south of i90. Meanwhile, dry slot approaches early in the day
before deformation axis moves across the region as main surface low
tracks to the gulf of maine. Brisk and cooler temperatures with
somewhat drier conditions later in the day Friday. Lake effect is
expected downwind of lake ontario and likely impact portions of the
dacks as mean flow will be from the west-southwest with marginal
delta t s.

Next front or clipper-type system is forecast to approach this
weekend. A mix of rain and snow showers expected, as after frontal
passage, h850 temperatures drop back to below -10c through Sunday.

Surface ridge from the central and southern plains noses in through
the day, however, still the threat for additional lake effect
expected downwind of lake ontario into portions of the dacks.

Aviation 21z Monday through Saturday
High pressure will continue to drift eastward and off the coast
this evening as an area of low pressure forms over DELMARVA region.

This low will rapidly strengthen as it moves northeastward passing
over long island and CAPE cod Tuesday morning and head to the
canadian maritimes during the afternoon.

Cloud cover will increase ahead of this developing low with clouds
thickening and lowering through this evening. Precipitation, rain
and snow, will quickly overspread the area late in the evening into
the early morning hours. At kpou, it's expected to be warm enough
for rain for the entire event. However, snow and rain is initially
expected at kpsf with warmer air working in resulting in all rain
by sunrise. However, as the precipitation gets heavier evaporative
cooling will result in better chances for snow at kalb and more
so at kgfl for a period early Tuesday morning with a changeover
to all rain expected by around 12z at kalb and around 14z at kgfl
as the warmer air works north and westward.

Expecting MVFR conditions as the precipitation moves in with
ifr conditions through most of Tuesday morning with some improvement
possible to MVFR toward the end of the TAF period for kpou and
kalb as the steadier and heavier precipitation moves off to the
east.

Light southerly winds this afternoon becoming light and variable
to calm overnight into Tuesday morning. As the low begins to move
off to our east, a northwesterly flow will develop. The flow is
expected to get brisk and gusty but not until after 18z Tuesday.

Outlook...

Tuesday night: moderate operational impact. Chance of shsn.

Wednesday: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shsn.

Wednesday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Thursday night: high operational impact. Definite sn.

Friday: high operational impact. Likely ra... Sn.

Friday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Saturday: slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Fire weather
Widespread precipitation in the form of rain and snow is
expected tonight into Tuesday. Colder, drier and breezy
conditions are expected for Wednesday. More steady precipitation
is expected later on Thursday into Friday.

Hydrology
A storm system will bring rain and snow to the region tonight
into Tuesday, with snow mostly being confined to northwestern
and high terrain parts of the area. One half inch to one inch of
liquid equivalent of precip is expected, which may allow for
some rises on rivers and streams, but no flooding is
anticipated. Some ponding of water may occur on roadways,
especially in areas where drainage is blocked by fallen leaves.

Steady precip will end late in the day on Tuesday. Some lake-
effect snow showers will form off lake ontario and impacts far
western areas for Tuesday night and into Wednesday.

Another round of steady precip in the form of rain and or snow is
expected later Thursday into Friday. Depending on the exact
amounts and p-type, some additional rises could occur on rivers
and streams once again.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs on our
website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter weather advisory from 1 am to 6 pm est Tuesday for
nyz032-033-038-042-082.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Bgm
aviation... Iaa
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 28 mi39 min 40°F 1027 hPa32°F
TKPN6 29 mi39 min S 4.1 G 6 45°F 45°F27°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 90 mi39 min E 2.9 G 4.1 45°F 56°F1028.9 hPa
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 91 mi39 min S 4.1 G 6 1028.2 hPa

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY24 mi78 minSE 410.00 miOvercast44°F26°F49%1027.3 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S4S4S6S4S6S7CalmS7S5SW4S6SE4S6S5CalmSE4SE3
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2 days agoNW4CalmNW4N5N4NW7N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmW14W17
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Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Mon -- 01:30 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM EST     3.97 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 01:40 PM EST     0.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:45 PM EST     5.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.30.31.12.23.13.63.93.93.22.31.81.40.90.71.42.63.74.54.954.53.42.5

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:57 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:42 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:40 AM EST     3.87 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:10 AM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 02:07 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:35 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EST     4.94 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:43 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.3-0.10.41.52.63.33.83.83.32.41.71.30.80.40.71.93.24.14.74.94.63.62.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.