Wednesday, May24, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Butte Falls, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:39AMSunset 8:35PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 9:10 PM PDT (04:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:35AMMoonset 5:06PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 837 Pm Pdt Tue May 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..The thermal trough is strengthening through Wednesday with strong winds and building seas. Seas will become very steep across most the waters by this evening and continue into Wednesday night. North gale force winds are expected south of cape blanco through Wednesday night with gusty small craft advisory winds to the north. Winds will decrease on Thursday but expect some continued areas of gales south of gold beach and hazardous seas south of cape blanco. Winds will subside late Thursday night. However, steep fresh swell will continue into Friday for areas south of cape blanco.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butte Falls, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 232241
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
340 pm pdt Tue may 23 2017
updated the aviation and marine discussion.

Discussion Dry and hot weather (at least away from the coast)
will continue through this evening. Right now medford is 93
degrees and there is a chance we could tie or just barely break
the record high for today which is 95 set in 2001. The latest
visible image shows marine stratus working south along and away
from the coast. The marine stratus will continue to work south
into early this evening, but not much further south then cape
blanco. Elsewhere, skies will remain clear to mostly clear with a
few high clouds moving southwest to northeast and some patch
cumulus clouds along the cascades, siskiyous, western josephine
county, and northern klamath and lake county.

In the bigger picture, the latest water vapor image clearly shows an
upper trough moving into western b.C. Just south of the alaska
panhandle. This will continue to move east-southeast tonight through
Wednesday. The main effect from this will be increased onshore flow
tonight through Wednesday. Guidance continues to suggest the marine
layer could deepen enough for patchy to areas of drizzle to develop,
so we'll keep the chance in from about CAPE blanco eastward to camas
mountain and portions of southern douglas county. Any drizzle or
light rain from the marine layer should be short lived and be a done
deal by mid morning Wednesday. The other issue is the extent of the
marine layer. Right now the thinking is it should remain just north
of the umpqua divide. The most significant change will be much
cooler afternoon temperatures compared to today for most inland
locations and will average 10-15 degrees cooler.

Gusty winds are expected as well east of the cascades and westside
valleys, especially near and at roseburg and rogue valley, including
medford. However were not expecting them to reach advisory criteria.

Instability parameters are marginal at best, but the models hint at
surface convergence and there will be an air mass change as the
upper trough moves southeast through eastern oregon. So that may be
enough for an isolated storm or two to pop up. However, anything
that would pop up will move southeast fairly quickly. Available
moisture is rather shallow, but should support some build-ups in
those areas in the afternoon evening.

The upper low will continue to move trough southern canada Wednesday
night through Thursday. At the same time an upper trough will move
into central oregon and bring a cool and dry northerly flow.

Typically with this type of pattern will yield dry weather with the
best chance for precipitation staying north and east of us.

Therefore expect continued dry weather with cooler afternoon
temperatures compared to Wednesday east of the cascades and similar
readings west of the cascades. Skies will be mostly clear with some
cumulus buildups in eastern klamath and lake county in the afternoon
and early evening.

On Friday we'll be sandwiched between the upper ridge offshore (near
130w) and upper trough in central-eastern oregon. Dry weather will
continue with warmer afternoon temperatures for most inland
locations. -petrucelli

Long term Saturday through Tuesday... The ridge will regain
control of the area, and this will produce another period of warm
and dry weather through the holiday weekend. There will be a slight
chance for daily afternoon thunderstorms, mainly along the cascades
and in the mountains of northern california through Monday, but
these will depend greatly on the presence of shortwave disturbance
within the flow aloft. Models suggest there could be a trough moving
into central california sometimes during the weekend. This is in
line with previous thinking and we made only minor changes to the
timing and placement of convection. For most areas, memorial day and
the weekend should be warm and mostly clear with no significant
threat for rain. Fb

Aviation 24 00z TAF cycle... Ifr CIGS have been persistent along
the coast from CAPE blanco northward today, including at koth. Low
clouds are expected to spread inland into the umpqua valley tonight
into Wednesday morning but gradually clear along the coast. North
winds will be a concern at koth with gust to 30 knot possible this
afternoon and early evening and again on Wednesday.

Elsewhere,VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail. Cc

Marine Updated 330pm Tuesday, may 23rd... A thermal trough will
strengthen over the waters today and bring strong winds and building
seas. Winds are expected to reach gale force from CAPE blanco south
late this afternoon into this evening and then persist through
Wednesday night. Steep to very steep wind driven seas today will
become very steep across most the waters by this evening and
continue into Wednesday night. Winds will decrease on Thursday but
expect some continued areas of gales south of gold beach and
hazardous seas south of CAPE blanco. Small craft advisory level
conditions are expected north of CAPE blanco on Thursday. Winds will
subside late Thursday night into Friday morning. However, steep
fresh swell will continue into Friday for areas south of cape
blanco. Cc

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Thursday for orz022.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Hazardous seas warning until 5 am pdt Thursday for pzz350-370.

Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Thursday for

Gale warning until 5 am pdt Thursday for pzz356-370.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 pm pdt Thursday for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory from 5 am to 11 pm pdt Thursday for pzz376.

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Thursday for pzz376.

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR20 mi18 minNNW 810.00 miFair82°F55°F40%1011.4 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
Last 24hrW3CalmSE6S4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3N4N4Calm3W3NW9N13
1 day agoNE3SW6SW5S6S4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN6N6NW6NW6NW7W4
2 days agoN6CalmN3S5CalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN5CalmCalmW3NE35NW5N5N6N3NW5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Wed -- 05:19 AM PDT     -1.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:21 AM PDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:48 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:37 AM PDT     5.84 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:06 PM PDT     1.43 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:26 PM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 08:40 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:11 PM PDT     7.84 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.