Friday, August18, 2017

Marine Weather and Tides
Butte Falls, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 8:07PM Friday August 18, 2017 3:00 PM PDT (22:00 UTC) Moonrise 1:53AMMoonset 4:56PM Illumination 12% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 226 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 18 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. High pressure centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will support moderate to strong north winds with steep to very steep seas through the weekend. Conditions will be at least hazardous to small craft, and warning level winds and seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from gold beach southward. The thermal trough will weaken early next week, and winds and seas will diminish then.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Butte Falls, OR
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location: 42.42, -122.49     debug

Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 181817
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1115 am pdt Fri aug 18 2017
the aviation and marine sections have been updated...

Short term A surface thermal trough will remain in place along
the coast through Monday. This will result in easterly to
northeasterly winds over the cascades and western mountains each
night and in the morning hours. Winds will shift to north to
northwest in the afternoon and evening. As a result expect a
persistent pattern of smoke from wildfires over southwest oregon
with smoke bringing air quality concerns to the area.

In the upper levels the ridge will persist offshore but weaken
over the area tonight as a weak shortwave moves down into the
area. As a result expect hot temperatures for inland valleys today
with a slight cooling trend on Saturday. Warmer temperatures will
occur in the brookings area today and through the weekend due to
the winds bringing a chetco effect to this area.

Looking into next week, models remain on track with southerly
moisture moving around an upper low and into the area Monday into
Tuesday. This will bring a slight chance for thunderstorms over
northern california on Monday then increasing chances for
thunderstorms, mainly over northern california and from the
cascades east on Tuesday. The potential for thunderstorms lingers
on Wednesday as well with the upper low remaining to the south and
an upper trough approaching the coast.

Aviation 18 18z TAF cycle...

gusty north winds are expected from about roseburg and grants pass
westward this afternoon, strongest from the coast range westward. A
steady stream of MVFR stratus will hover around 10 nautical miles
west of the coos douglas county coasts much of today, but is likely
to migrate coastward this afternoon. Ifr ceilings are expected along
the coos coast early this evening, possibly lowering to lifr.

Northeast winds tonight into the morning will disrupt the low clouds
after sunrise Saturday morning. There is low to moderate confidence,
however, that MVFR low clouds will reach to krbg Saturday morning,
where smoke from wildfires is likely to aid cloud formation. For the
remainder of the area, especially klamath falls and alturas
westward, smoke from numerous ongoing wildfires will continue to be
a problem, reducing visibilities most near the sources under a
general northerly flow, and across the valleys the most in the
overnight and morning hours. Btl

Marine Updated 830 am pdt Friday 18 august 2017... High pressure
centered offshore and a thermal trough along the coast will support
moderate to strong north winds and steep to very steep seas through
the weekend. Conditions will at least be hazardous to small craft,
but warning level winds seas will occur beyond 5 nm from shore from
gold beach south. Winds and seas will be highest during the
afternoons and evenings each day through Sunday, easing a bit during
the overnight and early morning hours. The thermal trough will
weaken early next week, and winds and seas will diminish then.

Fire weather Updated 300 am Friday 18 august 2017... High
pressure centered over the eastern pacific and low pressure over the
northern rockies will continue to maintain NW flow aloft through
Friday. At the surface, this will lead to NE winds and moderate to
poor relative humidity recoveries each night and morning through
Sunday morning along and near the coastal ranges, specifically in
fwz's 618, 619, 620, 621 and 280. Winds this morning are not very
strong... Remaining well below red flag warning criteria. Winds look
to be stronger Saturday night though.

Otherwise, it will be dry and hot each afternoon, driest and hottest
this afternoon. Dryness and instability on Friday will lead to a
moderate to high probability of active wildfires becoming plume
dominated as the haines index reaches 5 at most places. It should be
noted that there isn't much difference between a haines 5 and 6 once
a fire starts putting up a column of sufficient size - that is
pushing up to around 10,000 feet off the ground. Thus, large
uncontrolled fires stand the greatest chance of being problematic
Friday afternoon and evening.

Early next week the wind flow aloft will become more southerly,
leading to increasing probabilities of thunderstorm activity Monday
into Tuesday.

Prev discussion issued 318 am pdt Fri aug 18 2017

warming temperatures, smoke from the fires and a thermal trough
over the coast are the three big stories for this weekend. To
start, there is a pretty nice tilted ridge off the pacific
extending into our warning area today and into the weekend. This,
along with the thermal trough along the coast, will bring back
warmer than average temperatures across the region, specifically
south of douglas county into northern california Friday.

The flow around the thermal trough really kicks into high gear on
Saturday and Sunday with 850mb flow near curry and josephine
county reaching around 25 to 30 kts at 40 to 60 degrees on the
nam. Therefore, we should see gusty winds along ridge tops close
to the coast and in western parts of siskiyou county.

The other thing to note is that the chetco effect should be in
full effect through the weekend with upper level winds going right
down the chetco river. Kept the brookings temperatures warmer
than all of our guidance and thinking lower 90's is probable for
highs through Sunday.

The other talking point is thunderstorm potential as a cutoff low
positions it's self off the southern california coast on Sunday
night. This low will sit there through Thursday. Models are
pulling up some moisture and initiate convection along the sierra
nevada range and northern sacramento valley Monday night and
Tuesday night. We can see this low destabilizing the atmosphere
in northern california, it just seems pretty unlikely farther
north near douglas and northern lake and klamath counties for both
days. Bottom line is fell pretty good about the slight chance in
siskiyou and modoc, but not as good about thunderstorms farther
north for both Monday night and Tuesday night.

Finally, a more well developed low and cold front will push
towards the oregon coast near the end of the forecast period next
week Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This should give us
some thunderstorms on the east side and the upslope regions of the
cascades. Right now we put in slight chance, but that will
probably be upgraded in the future as forecasters gain more
confidence of a more strongly forced event. -smith

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 11 pm pdt Sunday

Gale warning until 11 pm pdt Sunday for pzz356-376.

Cc btl

Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Rogue Valley International Airport, OR20 mi68 minE 33.00 miSmoke87°F43°F21%1017 hPa

Wind History from MFR (wind in knots)
Last 24hr3Calm4N11
1 day agoSE43NW4NW12N8NW8NW9E3NW3CalmS3SW4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW5CalmCalm
2 days ago--N5NW9

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Fri -- 03:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 03:39 AM PDT     -0.44 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:28 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:12 AM PDT     5.52 feet High Tide
Fri -- 03:22 PM PDT     2.68 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:02 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 08:12 PM PDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:25 PM PDT     7.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
IR Satellite Image from GEOS

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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.