Wednesday, May22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:43AMSunset 8:36PM Wednesday May 22, 2019 2:08 PM PDT (21:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:24PMMoonset 7:58AM Illumination 85% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 850 Am Pdt Wed May 22 2019
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Offshore high pressure will persist through the end of the week. This will result in gusty north winds and very steep wind driven seas through the end of the week. Conditions will improve this weekend as weak low pressure moves over the waters.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 221803
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1102 am pdt Wed may 22 2019

Updated aviation discussion
Discussion Some showers are observed on radar this morning,
moving from northeast to southeast from the east side into the
cascades... And eventually into valleys west of the cascades. Even
with some morning showers, today's weather overall will be drier and
warmer than yesterday, and there should be increased sunshine this
afternoon after morning clouds clear some. There are some
indications that thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, but deep
layer northerly flow (not a favored pattern for lightning) along
with meager SPC calibrated thunderstorm probabilities have nudged us
to keep storms out of the forecast this afternoon.

Today we'll be putting some extra focus on the memorial day weekend
forecast as an upper low is forecast to move south over the forecast
area. How this impacts our forecast is still somewhat uncertain, so
we'll try to hone in on the details.

Aviation For the 22 18z tafs... From the cascades west... CIGS have
been a mix of MVFR andVFR this morning and this is expected to
continue into the morning and afternoon. Isolated showers and
mountain obscuration will occur for the majority of the day. Tonight
ceilings will lower to MVFR or ifr in most valleys west of the
cascades.

East of the cascades... Areas of MVFR CIGS with higher terrain
obscured will clear toVFR by this afternoon with gusty north winds
and increased turbulence. These conditions will persist into this
evening. There will also be isolated showers east of the cascades
throughout the day. Tonight the lowest conditions will occur on
north facing slopes due to northerly wind pushing lower clouds into
these areas. Keene

Marine Updated 200 am pdt Wednesday 22 may 2019... Offshore high
pressure and a thermal trough near the coast will strengthen later
today. Then, north winds will increase, becoming gusty with steep to
very steep wind-driven and fresh swell dominated seas. Winds will
approach gale force south of gold beach this afternoon and evening
and again Thursday afternoon and evening. Seas will be hazardous
over a larger area from around CAPE blanco south and beyond 5 nm of
the coast. The thermal trough will move inland Friday into Saturday,
and winds and seas will diminish.

Prev discussion issued 311 am pdt Wed may 22 2019
short term... The upper trough that brought all the showers to the
area yesterday is now moving into the great basin. Meanwhile, an
upper ridge axis is centered along 140w. This is bringing broad
north-northeast flow aloft across SW oregon and northern
california. Energy on the back side of the trough will continue to
rotate south-southwestward across the area today triggering more
showers, but they won't be as numerous as they were 24 hours
ago... Mainly isolated to scattered coverage. Best coverage will be
over the cascades and also over the east side (east of klamath
falls). Instability parameters are fairly weak today, and though
we'll probably see some heftier showers out there again, lightning
risk is low. If a strike were to occur, it'd be most likely in
portions of eastern siskiyou modoc counties this afternoon early
this evening. We'll be a bit milder than yesterday, with afternoon
temperatures rebounding into the mid to upper 60s west side and
in the upper 50s to low 60s east side.

Coverage of showers diminishes again overnight into Thursday
morning. And, we'll likely see less coverage Thursday than we'll
have today since upper ridging offshore will edge eastward. Even
so, still expect a couple of showers over near the cascades and
also from winter rim southeastward to the warners. There is a
slight chance of a thunderstorm roughly from about howard prairie
northward. Temperatures will climb back to just about where they
should be for this time of year, which means low to mid 70s for
west side valleys and mid 60s east of the cascades.

On Friday, short wave energy will drop southward along the bc
coast and develop into a closed low. This low will then settle to
near the or wa border by Friday evening. It should be another
near-normal day temperature-wise in advance of this system with
highs fairly similar to Thursday. Showers and isolated
thunderstorms are possible from SE siskiyou county northeastward
across the east side (again mainly east of klamath falls). There
can also be isolated showers near and north of the umpqua divide.

The rest of the area should be dry. The closed low will move
quickly southward through the area overnight Friday into
Saturday. See long term discussion below for more details
regarding the extended forecast. -spilde
long term... Saturday through Tuesday... The general
consensus is for upper troughing to remain over the area through
the holiday weekend. This means we could be dealing with a
chance of showers and afternoon and early evening thunderstorms
Saturday through memorial day for most inland locations. In this
type of pattern we could actually end up with a fair amount of dry
time in the morning hours, especially west of the cascades. Then
from late morning through the early evening hours, the chance for
scattered showers will increase in coverage and intensity with a
slight chance of thunderstorms. The best chance for showers and
storms both Saturday and Sunday will be along and east of the
cascades. However westside locations will also have a risk for
showers due to increasing instability from daytime heating or
steering winds bringing in showers from the southeast Saturday,
then east on Sunday.

The upper low is expected to set up southeast of our area Monday.

The operational models are in relatively good agreement with the
position of the low, but the individual ensemble members show a wide
range of solutions. Therefore the details on the exact location of
showers and where the best chance of showers could change. The upper
should finally move far enough away where we could end up with drier
and milder conditions next Tuesday. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Friday
for pzz350-356-370-376. Hazardous seas warning until 5 am
pdt Friday for pzz356-370-376.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi44 min NNW 14 G 20 58°F 54°F1016.1 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi38 min NW 13 G 18 57°F 53°F1019.5 hPa

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi2.2 hrsN 00.15 miFog45°F45°F100%1016.2 hPa

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW3SE3S6SW6S5Calm--3--Calm3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm35Calm--N7
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2 days agoCalm--3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W3W3SW6SW5SW6S6S65S9S66S5--------

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Wed -- 01:57 AM PDT     6.64 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:03 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:08 AM PDT     -0.98 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 03:59 PM PDT     5.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:37 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:02 PM PDT     3.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.66.46.66.35.33.82.10.6-0.5-1-0.70.21.534.35.15.35.14.53.83.333.23.8

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Wed -- 02:05 AM PDT     6.31 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:02 AM PDT     Moonset
Wed -- 09:20 AM PDT     -0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 04:07 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Wed -- 08:39 PM PDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:14 PM PDT     2.79 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.15.96.36.15.23.92.30.8-0.3-0.9-0.701.32.63.94.75.14.94.43.73.12.82.93.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.