Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:35AMSunset 5:13PM Friday January 19, 2018 3:21 AM PST (11:21 UTC) Moonrise 9:11AMMoonset 7:56PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 242 Am Pst Fri Jan 19 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Westerly swell will gradually subside but remain very high and very steep through tonight. SWell dominated seas will stay high and steep but diminish briefly to 11 to 13 feet late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Another strong front will move through late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing south gales, possible storm force winds for the northern outer waters, and very high seas. High pressure will bring brief improvement Monday. But, seas will remain elevated and another strong front is expected Tuesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 190558
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
958 pm pst Thu jan 18 2018

Update Updated the aviation discussion.

Aviation 19 06z TAF cycle... A slight chance of thunderstorms will
continue from the coastal waters to the coastal range overnight with
a band of light to moderate precipitation west of the cascades and a
weaker band east of the cascades. The coverage of showers and snow
showers will diminish after 15z with a majority of showers during
the remainder of the day and evening occurring near the coast. The
freezing level will remain near 3500 to 4000 ft msl through Friday
evening. The showery air mass will result in variable conditions
with mainlyVFR CIGS and vsbys, but areas of MVFR with mountain
obscuration. There is also brief or local valley ifr possible early
Friday morning. -dw

Marine Updated 830 pm pst Thursday 18 jan 2018... Westerly swell
will gradually subside but remain very high and very steep through
Friday night. Swell dominated seas will stay high and steep but
diminish Saturday into Saturday evening. Another strong front will
move through late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing south gales
and very high seas. High pressure will bring brief improvement
Monday. But, seas will remain high and another strong front will
move through Tuesday. The continuing series of fronts will likely
bring high and steep seas through the week. -dw

Prev discussion issued 833 pm pst Thu jan 18 2018
update... Steady widespread snowfall continues in the cascades
and eastward, with snow levels below 4000 feet. Roadcams have
shown heavy snowfall with poor visibility in many areas, including
hwy 140 and hwy 97 at times. It is important to either take
caution when traveling, or avoid travel in these areas tonight.

Precipitation rates have been slightly higher than expected,
prompting us to add a few areas to the winter weather advisory
(wsw). Precipitation amounts have been updated over the next 12
hours to account for this trend. West of the cascades, showers are
prevailing, and snow levels will drop to 2700 to 3000 feet late
tonight. Showers will continue into Friday, though with the
exception of the coast and coastal mountains, precipitation rates
will diminish substantially. Saturday will serve as a relative
break from weather, then a healthy frontal system will move in
Sunday and bring another round of snow in the mountains and east
side, and rain in west side valleys. For more information see
previous discussion. -msc
prev discussion... Issued 203 pm pst Thu jan 18 2018
discussion... A short wave will rotate around the base of the
trough into our forecast area this evening. This trough is quite
unstable with plenty of cold air aloft and satellite imagery shows
plenty of cold air cumulus. A few lightning strikes at the coast
is possible. As the trough moves inland, it will also generate
widespread showers across our area. Snow levels will range from
around 3500 feet over the umpqua divide to around 4500 feet over
the cascades and east side. Snow levels lowers to 2700-3500 foot
range tonight and could lower to 2500 feet by Friday morning. Time
height forecast of the cascades show plenty of vertical lift and
confidence is high on accumulating snow at crater lake as well as
at mount ashland. Scattered showers will continue into Friday
after this main short wave has moved through. There will also be a
moderate onshore flow and curry county and the coastal range could
see another 1 to 1.5 inches of rain from Friday through Friday
night.

Saturday is expected to be a relatively quiet day as the next
storm moves into the coastal waters. Models show occasional light
shower from the umpqua basin north and south to southeast winds
will enhance downslope flow into southern jackson county.

Extended discussion Sunday through Thursday... Confidence remains
high we'll remain fairly active during the forecast period. Any
relative break in the action may be far and few in between. Right
now it looks we'll get a relative break on Monday. Even then it
won't be a 100% dry.

There remains good agreement with the timing of the front on Sunday.

There are still some differences with the timing of the front, but
overall the models are in much better agreement compared to
yesterday. The ECMWF is still a bit slower with the arrival of the
front compared to the other operational models.

Winds are still going to be the main impact on Sunday, especially in
the shasta valley and eastside. These areas will at least reach
advisory levels with high wind warning criteria possible in the
south end of the shasta valley near weed and higher elevations like
summer lake east of the cascades. There is good agreement winds will
be aligned just right for gusty winds to develop in the rogue
valley. In fact the south end of the rogue valley from around
phoenix to ashland could reach advisory criteria. Winds in the
shasta and rogue valleys are expected to be strongest from late
Sunday morning into Sunday evening, but this could change depending
on the timing of the front, so watch for updates. Meanwhile winds
will be strongest east of the cascades from Sunday afternoon through
Sunday evening.

Gusty winds are also expected along the coast and headlands Sunday
morning. The models have trended a but stronger with the magnitude
and pressure gradient between arcata and north bend. So we could be
looking at high wind potential there.

The highest precip amounts on Sunday are going to be in the usual
areas. The coast and coastal mountains and the cascades. The front
won't move onshore Sunday evening, therefore snow levels during the
day will end up higher. They should start out around 3500 feet
Sunday morning then rise to around 4500 feet Sunday afternoon. This
is when the bulk of the precipitation will come in. For now road
snow concerns will be confined to the highway 140 near lake of the
woods, diamond lake, crater lake and mount ashland ski area. Siksyou
summit and mount shasta region could pick up couple of inches at
best Sunday morning with little or nothing Sunday afternoon as snow
levels come up. Keep in mind the details on this could change.

The front will move through the area Sunday night. Winds will
decrease over most locations. Snow levels will come down, but by
then precipitation will also be on the decrease which should limit
the amount of accumulating snow. However, we'll still have to deal
with accumulating snow Sunday evening around diamond lake, crater
lake, lake of the woods and highway 89 east of mount shasta. Siksyou
summit could pick up and additional inch or two Sunday evening.

Were still lined up to catch a relative break in the action Monday.

Moist northwest flow on Monday will result in showers mainly
confined to the coast.

The jury is out for Monday night through Tuesday. The models show
moisture spreading into southeast oregon and northwest california
late Monday night. However there is a new development, in particular
with the ecmwf. The ECMWF shows a surface low rapidly developing
overnight Monday, moving inside of 130w sometime Tuesday morning,
then moving onshore near newport oregon Tuesday evening. If this
pans out, we could be looking at strong winds along the coast,
headlands, shasta valley and maybe eastside. The GFS has a weaker
surface low and also has it positioned farther north which would not
have nearly the same impact. Of note: the canadian solution is
almost similar to yesterday's ECMWF and GFS solution which showed
weak ridging.

Wednesday through Thursday looks cooler and unsettled with snow
levels possibly getting down between 2000 and 2500 feet. No big
storms, but a cool trough will be near by with moist northwest flow.

-petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... High surf advisory until 4 am pst Saturday for orz021-022.

High surf warning until 11 pm pst this evening for orz021-022.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Friday for orz030.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Friday for orz027-028.

Ca... Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Friday for caz080.

Winter weather advisory until 10 am pst Friday for caz085.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale watch from Saturday evening through
Sunday afternoon for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 4 am pst Saturday for
pzz350-356-370-376.

Msc fjb dw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi52 min S 9.9 G 12 49°F 52°F1015.5 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi52 min S 17 G 21 46°F 53°F1014.5 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 67 mi92 min S 14 G 18 51°F 53°F18 ft1015 hPa (+0.3)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi86 minSSW 12 G 180.25 miLight Snow Freezing Fog29°F27°F92%1013.7 hPa

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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2 days ago------S12S8S8--SE7SE8SE5SE4SE7SE7SE9SE9SE9--S13S10S11S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:28 AM PST     6.16 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:44 AM PST     3.16 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:25 PM PST     7.04 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:22 PM PST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.56.16.15.64.73.93.33.23.64.45.56.476.96.253.41.80.6-0.100.82.13.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:36 AM PST     5.85 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM PST     2.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:42 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:15 AM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:33 PM PST     6.69 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:15 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:34 PM PST     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:01 PM PST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.15.75.85.44.63.83.12.93.24566.66.664.93.520.70-00.61.83.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.