Sunday, September24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:02AMSunset 7:06PM Sunday September 24, 2017 5:17 AM PDT (12:17 UTC) Moonrise 10:28AMMoonset 8:56PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 246 Am Pdt Sun Sep 24 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..A thermal trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep seas south of cape blanco through early next week. Winds and seas will peak each afternoon and evening through Tuesday, and small craft advisory conditions will spread north today to cover a broader area south of cape blanco. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening and bring a mix of steep to very steep seas south of cape blanco with steep seas and small craft advisory winds possible north of cape blanco. North winds will gradually diminish Wednesday.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 241134
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
434 am pdt Sun sep 24 2017

Discussion Model agreement remains very good through Thursday.

A broad ridge is currently offshore and will be the main driver of
warmer and drier weather as it moves slowly east through that
time. Unlike a typical summer-time ridge, this ridge will have a
series of disturbances ride over its northern edge into the
pacific northwest. These will continue to bring variable amounts
of mainly mid and high level clouds. An exception is the band of
low clouds presently along the coast north of CAPE blanco into the
coquille valley. These clouds are expected to dissipate late this
morning with another shallow marine stratus layer likely to
develop again this evening.

Among the more notable of the disturbances is a front that will
bring rain into washington on Monday with a slight chance to
chance of light rain into the oregon coastal waters and northwest
oregon. The most likely scenario is that it delivers some
sprinkles or a brief shower to coos and douglas counties on Monday
afternoon and evening.

An along-shore to onshore low level flow will follow at the coast
north of CAPE blanco into the coquille valley on Monday night
with a thicker marine stratus into Tuesday morning that may bring
patchy drizzle. An easterly flow is likely along all of the coast
on Tuesday night which would limit or exclude low clouds. Meantime,
low clouds are not expected at the coast south of CAPE blanco from this
morning through Wednesday morning with a persistent dry east to
northeast flow. This will also bring above normal temperatures to
the brookings area with highs in the 70s to lower 80s. Elsewhere,
the forecast continues with a model blend of high temperatures.

This generally shaves a few degrees off the GFS mos forecast, but
still represents inland highs around normal today and Monday then
becoming around a half-dozen to a dozen degrees above normal for
Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday will compete for
the title of warmest day of the week as the coastal thermal
trough moves inland then retreates back toward the coast Wednesday
night before moving to the east side on Thursday.

Beyond Thursday, a cold front is still expected to approach on
Friday or Friday night. This front is likely to be stronger than
the Monday system, but not by a lot. The ECMWF is slightly faster
and stronger than the GFS but still has the front weakening as it
moves inland and only indicates a few light showers possible at
the coast. Both models indicate a ridge offshore from california
will build on Saturday with the ECMWF showing a slightly more
amplified solution.

Model agreement diminishes quickly and significantly beyond
Saturday. The forecast reflects a model blend but leans toward
the ECMWF and persistence. The higher amplitude of the ecmwf
solution allows the ridge to persist while the GFS solution shifts
to a cool and wet pattern.

Aviation 24 06z TAF cycle... Patchy ifr to lifr fog and low
ceilings are expected to continue along and near the coast north of
cape blanco, to include in the coquille basin, this evening through
much of Sunday morning before dissipating. Isolated and brief
MVFR ifr visibilities in radiation fog are also possible in the
umpqua basin around sunrise Sunday morning. Otherwise,VFR will
prevail. Btl

Marine Updated 300 am pdt Sunday, 24 september 2017... A thermal
trough will maintain gusty north winds and steep seas south of cape
blanco through early next week. Winds and seas will peak each
afternoon and evening through Tuesday, and small craft advisory
conditions will spread north today to cover a broader area south of
cape blanco. North winds may increase even further late Tuesday
afternoon into Tuesday evening and bring a mix of steep to very
steep seas south of CAPE blanco with steep seas and small craft
advisory winds possible north of CAPE blanco. There is also
potential for gale force gusts south of CAPE blanco during this time
period as well. North winds will diminish Wednesday into Wednesday
night. Sk btl

Fire weather Updated 200 am pdt Sunday, 24 september 2017... .

A warming and drying trend is expected through most of the week. Of
note is the recent GFS model trend showing a solidly dry air mass
Wednesday through Friday, to include potential for poor to moderate
humidity recoveries each night during that period. Temperatures are
expected to peak, and humidity values are expected to be at their
lowest, around Thursday as the thermal trough moves inland. Breezy
and dry is a fair characterization of the fire weather environment
towards the coast south of CAPE blanco and in western siskiyou
county. Additionally, those favored north to south oriented valleys
like the umpqua and illinois, will see breezy conditions during the
afternoons, along with the east side.

At no time during the next week do we expect critical fire weather
conditions. There will be periods of breezy and dry conditions, but
winds and humidity aren't expected to align enough to warrant any
fire weather watches or red flag warnings.

Looking further out and considering the past several days of model
data, the mostly dry and warmer than normal conditions should
generally persist through week 2. However, there are very recent
trends in the GFS model that suggest some wetting rains are possible
next week. -sk

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 11 am this morning
to 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz356.

Small craft advisory until 5 am pdt Wednesday for pzz376.

Hazardous seas watch from Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday
night for pzz376.

Dw nsk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi47 min NNE 1 G 1.9 49°F 57°F1016.9 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi47 min NNW 7 G 11 56°F 52°F1017.4 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 67 mi87 min N 9.7 G 12 55°F 56°F4 ft1016 hPa (+0.6)

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi22 minENE 310.00 miFair50°F37°F63%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----N3CalmCalmCalm34----Calm--54N8N9--N8N6CalmSE3----NE3
1 day agoNE6--------3--54--3Calm--N6N9
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2 days agoCalmCalm--------Calm--Calm------CalmN6N5N7N8------N8NE10CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
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Sun -- 03:02 AM PDT     5.82 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:46 AM PDT     2.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:31 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:47 PM PDT     6.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:32 PM PDT     0.69 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.34.65.55.85.64.83.82.92.22.12.53.44.55.66.36.56.15.13.82.51.40.80.81.3

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:10 AM PDT     5.53 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:07 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:58 AM PDT     1.90 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 11:32 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 02:55 PM PDT     6.20 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:10 PM PDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:44 PM PDT     0.64 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 10:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
34.25.15.55.34.73.82.82.11.92.234.15.25.96.25.953.82.61.50.80.71.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.