Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grants Pass, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday November 15, 2018 1:16 PM PST (21:16 UTC) Moonrise 1:29PMMoonset 11:59PM Illumination 53% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
PZZ330 1126 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 9 2013
.thunderstorms over the waters... Thunderstorms over the waters have weakened but isolated storms will continue overnight. Mariners can expect gusty and erratic winds with the storms along with frequent lightning. If caught on the open water stay below deck if possible...keep away from ungrounded metal objects. Lat...lon 4397 12411 4396 12411 4400 12413 4284 12455 4242 12440 4225 12441 4205 12428 4184 12422 4181 12580 4198 12579 4220 12589 4370 12576 4386 12565 4399 12562 4403 12414
PZZ300 834 Am Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Moderate northwest swell will continue to impact the area, and north winds will increase throughout the day, producing choppy wind driven seas on top of the swell. Small craft advisory conditions will persist through early Friday morning, then northwest swell will diminish. The thermal trough along the coast will strengthen and maintain seas that are hazardous to small craft Friday into Saturday, from cape blanco south. Conditions will improve late Saturday into Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grants Pass, OR
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.42, -123.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus66 kmfr 151922
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
1120 am pst Thu nov 15 2018
the aviation section has been updated for the 18z TAF cycle...

Short term An upper level ridge will strengthen over the region
today and Friday. Meanwhile at the surface a thermal trough will
build along the southern oregon coast. This pattern will bring
dry weather with breezy to gusty north winds across the coastal
waters and along the coast. Also expect some gusty winds over the
coastal mountains tonight into Friday with this thermal trough.

Then as the thermal trough builds north Friday night into
Saturday, breeze and gusty winds will affect the southern oregon
cascades. Also early Saturday, expect a shortwave trough to move
down the east side of the ridge. This may bring some slightly cooler
temperatures in areas from the cascades east on Saturday and
Sunday.

Haze and patchy smoke over the area is expected to improve
slightly today into Friday as winds aloft shift to the north to
northeast. However, some patchy smoke and decreased air quality is
expected to persist through the weekend for inland valleys due to
a stable air mass over the region bringing a strong inversion and
stagnant conditions.

Aviation For the 15 18z tafs...

ifr low clouds and fog in the umpqua basin, to include roseburg, are
likely to take until early to even mid-afternoon to burn off.

Elsewhere,VFR is expected to prevail, though visibilities will be
reduced some across the forecast area under lingering inversions due
to smoke and haze.

Tonight through Friday morning we expect fog and low clouds to be of
greater coverage and duration across the forecast area due to a 5-10
degree rise in forecast dewpoints. However, from the coast range and
roseburg northward and westward northeast winds will be increasing
above the boundary layer, so this may delay and or disrupt fog
formation some in that areas. Overall, expect a mix of ifr to lifr
to develop across the valleys between 06z through 18z Friday
morning, probably last to dissipate in the roseburg area. Btl

Marine Updated 300 am pst Thursday 15 november 2018... A heavy
northwest swell train will continue to impact the area, and north
winds will increase throughout the day, producing steep waves on top
of the swell. The combination of these two wave groups will generate
chaotic seas, with the area of highest concern roughly between 10
and 30 nm from shore south of gold beach. That said, small craft
advisory conditions will persist through early Friday morning over
the entire marine area, then northwest swell will start diminishing.

However, a thermal trough along the coast will strengthen and
maintain seas that are hazardous to small craft Friday into
Saturday, at least in the southern waters up to CAPE blanco. Winds
and seas will diminish late Saturday into Sunday.

Winds will become southerly and expect relatively benign seas early
next week. -mcauley

Prev discussion issued 308 am pst Thu nov 15 2018
discussion... Not much change has changed since yesterday morning.

It will remain dry through at least the start of next week. The
latest IR satellite image shows varying amounts of high and mid
level clouds moving from west to east over the area as an upper
ridge remains over the area.

A shortwave on the eastern side of the upper ridge will move south
Saturday evening and night. At the surface a dry cold front will
bring in a drier and colder air mass, especially east of the
cascades Saturday into Sunday with overnight readings easily
dropping into the teens in northeast lake, northern klamath county
and portions of modoc county. Offshore flow will also increase with
gusty east winds possible along the cascades and siskiyous Saturday
night into Sunday morning. Winds could be breezy in these areas
tonight into Saturday morning, but not as strong. Also there's some
evidence gusty winds are possible in the ridges in western siskiyou
county Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Ridging remains over the area for the start of next week. The
pattern then becomes less certain for most of the holiday week. The
general consensus among the operational models is for the upper
ridge to break down and being replaced with upper troughing.

However they differ on the details with the timing and location of
the upper trough. The operational models have been more consistent
the past couple of runs. The ECMWF and canadian show similar
solutions with an upper trough and surface cold front moving into
our area late Tuesday afternoon or Tuesday night. As been the case
the last couple of runs, the GFS is drier and milder with upper
low splitting off from the main flow further offshore with upper
ridging over the area next Tuesday and Wednesday. Taking this at
face value would yield in continued dry and mild weather.

It's worth noting several of the the individual members of the gfs
ensemble means show the upper trough further offshore and ridging
over our area (similar to the operational gfs).

The GEFS 500 mb height anomaly (another ensemble forecast mean that
is based in part in 1981-2010 climatology) shows a low 500mb anomaly
further offshore near 35n and 140 W with a southwest flow ahead of
it.

What this all boils down to is this: a change in the pattern is
becoming more likely. There is better agreement we could see a
change towards wetter and cooler by the middle of next week, but
confidence on the timing and how much precipitation we'll get
remains low. -petrucelli

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for pzz350-356.

Small craft advisory from 1 pm Friday to 10 am pst Saturday for
pzz350-356-370.

Small craft advisory until 4 am pst Friday for pzz370.

Small craft advisory until 10 am pst Saturday for pzz376.

Cc


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 64 mi35 min WSW 1.9 G 2.9 51°F 51°F1020.9 hPa
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 65 mi47 min NNW 11 G 16 62°F 50°F1021.9 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 68 mi27 min NNW 3.9 G 7.8 52°F 52°F7 ft1021.7 hPa48°F

Wind History for Crescent City, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last
24hr
N10
N6
G9
N5
N2
NW4
E2
E1
SE3
NW1
NE1
E1
NE4
N3
N1
N1
NE1
N4
N2
NE1
E2
SW1
W2
SW3
SW2
1 day
ago
SW5
S8
SE1
E1
NE1
NE3
NE4
N2
NE2
NE3
NE7
NE6
G9
NE3
NE5
NE3
NE3
NE4
NE4
NE4
N4
SE1
SE3
SW3
SW5
2 days
ago
S3
SE2
S1
SE2
SW3
W1
W2
NW1
E2
--
--
N1
N4
N1
--
E2
NE1
N2
NE3
NE6
N3
NE5
W5
W2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Sexton Summit, OR14 mi81 minN 010.00 miFair55°F33°F44%1022 hPa

Wind History from SXT (wind in knots)
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
Last 24hrCalm3N6N8N6N5N5N5NE3SE3N5NE3CalmCalmNE5E4N3----CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoS5S8S9SW9SW8SW6SW10SW11
G16
S12S12S8--S9S7S5S7SE8SE8SE7SE5SE543Calm
2 days agoSE10SE7SE8SE9SE7SE8SE10SE12SE11SE11SE10SE10SE14SE12SE13SE9SE10SE8SE6S8SE7SE8CalmS5

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Wedderburn
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:11 AM PST     5.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:55 AM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     4.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.21.82.73.64.55.15.45.34.94.43.93.53.43.644.44.854.84.33.62.721.4

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help   One Week of Data
Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:03 AM PST     5.68 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:07 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:43 AM PST     3.72 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:31 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:47 PM PST     5.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 11:47 PM PST     1.33 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

12
am
1
am
2
am
3
am
4
am
5
am
6
am
7
am
8
am
9
am
10
am
11
am
12
pm
1
pm
2
pm
3
pm
4
pm
5
pm
6
pm
7
pm
8
pm
9
pm
10
pm
11
pm
1.42.1344.95.55.75.55.14.64.13.83.73.94.34.85.15.254.43.62.821.5

Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (16,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.