Thursday, March23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Selma, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 7:31PM Thursday March 23, 2017 7:16 PM PDT (02:16 UTC) Moonrise 3:42AMMoonset 1:58PM Illumination 13% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 234 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
.gale warning in effect through late tonight...
Tonight..S wind 20 to 25 kt...rising to 30 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft...building to 9 to 12 ft. SWell W 3 to 4 ft at 13 seconds. Rain.
Fri..SW wind 15 to 20 kt...backing to S in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 5 to 8 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. SWell sw 7 ft at 9 seconds and W 4 ft at 13 seconds... Shifting to the W 6 ft at 12 seconds and sw 6 ft at 9 seconds in the afternoon. Showers through the day. Slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to W 5 to 10 kt early in the morning. Wind waves 3 ft in the evening...becoming 2 ft or less. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 11 seconds. Slight chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely through the night.
Sat..W wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 7 to 9 ft. Slight chance of showers through the day.
Sat night..SW wind 5 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 7 to 8 ft.
Sun..S wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 3 to 5 ft in the afternoon. SWell W 5 to 6 ft. Rain.
Sun night..S wind 15 to 20 kt...veering to sw 10 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, S wind 10 kt... Veering to sw after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 9 ft...subsiding to 4 to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 3 ft...building to S 6 ft after midnight. Rain in the evening, then showers after midnight.
Mon..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 4 ft... Becoming 2 ft or less. SWell W 8 ft...building to W 10 ft.
Tue..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to ne after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 9 ft... Building to W 11 ft.
PZZ300 234 Pm Pdt Thu Mar 23 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon a waters..A strong front will bring widespread gales and very steep seas tonight into Friday morning. Winds will decrease Friday into Saturday...but seas should remain steep due to a combination of moderate westerly swell and fresh short period southwest swell. The next front will arrive Sunday with another round of very steep seas and possible gales.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Selma, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 240000
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
500 pm pdt Thu mar 23 2017
updated aviation section

Discussion
Short term Tonight through Sunday night... Two systems are set
to bring widespread rain, snow, and wind to our area through the
end of the weekend. The first will arrive late tonight and persist
into Friday, then a second will arrive Sunday. While there will
be a break between the events, it will be short lived, with
showers never really leaving the area completely before the next
front begins to push into the region. Models are in exceptionally
good agreement concerning this chain of events, so confidence
remains high.

The front edge of precipitation and clouds associated with the
first front are beginning to make their way onshore as of this
writing. These will spread up to the cascade crest this evening,
but the main belt of precipitation will arrive later tonight.

Moisture amounts and inflows are healthy, but not overly strong,
so there are no significant hydro concerns. However, soils remain
saturated, and it will not take much for ditches and small creeks
to rise. Will monitor area gauges, but do not expect to issue any
flood headlines at this time. Winds will also increase through
this evening and tonight, but the parent low, remaining well to
our north, is beginning to fill and pressure gradients remain on
the low side. This should keep the strongest winds contained to
our usual trouble spots: higher terrain, the shasta valley, and
the summer lake basin. Wind advisories remain in place for these
areas.

Snow will be a concern, as snow levels during the event will
hover between 4000 and 5000 feet. Significant snow is expected
over the cascades and the mountains of western siskiyou county.

Snow should also pile up along mount shasta and highway 89, and
along highway 97 east of the cascades. These areas remain under a
winter weather advisory, and more details can be found in the
winter weather message at pdxwswmfr.

Precipitation will transition to showers Friday afternoon, then
taper off through the night and into Saturday morning. But showers
will not fully come to an end before the next system lurking
offshore makes its way into the area on Sunday. Moisture inflows
and pressure gradients do not look to be as strong with this next
system, but snow levels should remain relatively similar. This
will produce some snow along the higher passes, and perhaps some
advisories will be necessary but confidence remains too low at
this time to issue. Widespread rain should begin to taper off from
west to east late Sunday, then post-frontal showers will continue
into the extended period. -bpn

Long term Mon march 27th through Thu night march 30th... Gefs
integrated vapor transport (ivt) products and operational runs of
the GFS and ECMWF indicate that near normal temperatures and wetter
than normal conditions are likely to generally persist through this
long term period. Precipitation will be mostly showery and mostly in
a west to northwest flow, with the exception of one frontal system
focused on Wednesday, march 29th. There will be a bit of a leeward
downslope induced rain shadow over east side much of the time
period, resulting less shower activity there.

Showers on Monday ride in on a west to even a northwest flow and
snow levels will likely be near 4000 feet. Showers look to be more
appreciable in the morning than the afternoon in terms of coverage
and intensity.

Models have trended drier for Tuesday, but it still does appear some
showers will occur on the coast and in the umpqua. East of the
cascades and south of the umpqua divide it will be a mostly dry day.

Models have come into better agreement in showing a frontal system
Wednesday both the ECMWF and the GFS dive in a frontal system under
northwest flow. While this system appears as if it will have some
cold air behind it, snow levels surge up to 6000 to 7000 feet on the
front side of it, and then down to near 5000 feet in showers on the
back side of it Wednesday night.

While there has been a clear trend over the past 5 days in both the
operational runs of the GFS and ECMWF as well as the cfsv2 toward
high pressure ridging building into the pacific northwest Friday
into next weekend there is one more shortwave trough riding in on
northwest flow that could bring more showers, mainly on the west
side, on Thursday. -btl

Aviation 24/00z TAF cycle... A strong frontal system will
move into the area tonight. Ceilings will gradually lower from west
to east across the forecast area this evening with terrain becoming
obscured. Ceilings will vary fromVFR to MVFR with MVFR predominant
along the coast, in the umpqua valley and in the shasta region.

Gusty south winds will occur along the coast, especially south of
cape blanco, and also inland over portions of northern california
and the east side. Low level wind shear is possible at the terminals
west of the cascades with turbulence expected near and over terrain
from the cascades eastward. Periods of light to moderate
precipitation will accompany the front through the area overnight
into Friday morning. Expect conditions to improve a bit Friday
afternoon with ceilings becoming mostlyVFR, though scattered
showers may occasionally lower ceilings to MVFR. -spilde

Marine Updated 245 pm pdt Thursday 23 march 2017... A strong front
will bring widespread gales and very steep seas tonight into Friday
morning. Gales are most likely beyond about 5 nm from shore, but
also right up to shore near CAPE blanco. Winds will decrease Friday
into Saturday, but seas should remain steep due to a combination of
moderate westerly swell and fresh short period southwest swell. The
next front will arrive Sunday with another round of very steep seas
and possible gales. -spilde

Mfr watches/warnings/advisories
Or... Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm pdt
Friday for orz029-030.

Wind advisory from 2 am to 2 pm pdt Friday for orz030-031.

Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm pdt
Friday for orz027-028.

Ca... Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm pdt
Friday for caz082-083.

Winter weather advisory from 11 pm this evening to 2 pm pdt
Friday for caz080.

Wind advisory from 8 pm this evening to 2 pm pdt Friday for
caz081.

Wind advisory from 2 am to 2 pm pdt Friday for caz085.

Pacific coastal waters... Gale warning until 4 am pdt Friday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Hazardous seas warning until 11 am pdt Friday for pzz350-356.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 11 am to 5 pm pdt
Friday for pzz350-370.

Hazardous seas warning from 11 pm this evening to 11 am pdt
Friday for pzz370-376.

Bpn/btl/mas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 36 mi47 min SSE 30 G 39 49°F 52°F1013.7 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 45 mi87 min SSE 29 G 37 52°F 53°F9 ft1016.1 hPa (-1.0)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 48 mi47 min SSE 23 G 27 49°F 54°F1016.7 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR30 mi21 minSE 11 G 1610.00 miLight Rain45°F43°F93%1018.2 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4CalmNE3CalmNE3E3Calm434345E45SE10S11
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1 day agoS7S7S533SE64455343353S3NW4Calm5W7W6NW6NW6
2 days agoSE11S11
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Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 03:00 AM PDT     2.90 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:43 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:15 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:42 AM PDT     5.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:59 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:49 PM PDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:22 PM PDT     5.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
43.53.12.93.13.64.355.55.65.24.53.42.31.30.70.50.91.72.73.84.75.15

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:49 AM PDT     3.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:41 AM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:14 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:34 AM PDT     5.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:00 PM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:37 PM PDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:33 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:14 PM PDT     5.38 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
4.23.73.33.23.444.75.45.85.85.44.63.42.21.20.60.6123.14.255.45.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.