Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Selma, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:37AMSunset 8:43PM Monday May 29, 2017 2:03 PM PDT (21:03 UTC) Moonrise 8:58AMMoonset 11:38PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 843 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Today..NW wind 15 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 5 to 10 kt...rising to 15 kt late afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 10 seconds and sw 1 to 2 ft at 18 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning. Slight chance of drizzle in the morning. Slight chance of rain through the day.
Tonight..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 10 kt early in the morning. Brookings southward, nw wind 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell sw 2 ft at 17 seconds and W 2 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..NW wind 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 2 to 3 ft at 16 seconds and nw 2 ft at 10 seconds. Slight chance of showers.
Tue night..NW wind 10 kt...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 2 to 3 ft and nw 2 ft.
Wed..Wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming W 5 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell sw 2 to 3 ft and nw 1 to 2 ft...shifting to the W 3 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..W wind 5 kt...backing to S after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 4 to 5 ft. Slight chance of showers through the night.
Thu..NW wind 5 kt...becoming 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon and evening, then...veering to N after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. SWell W 5 ft.
Fri..NW wind 5 to 10 kt...becoming N 25 kt in the evening, then...easing to 20 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less... Becoming 5 to 6 ft. SWell W 4 ft.
PZZ300 843 Am Pdt Mon May 29 2017
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Fog and low stratus will persist today, but north winds and seas will build as a thermal trough redevelops. Conditions will improve Tuesday due to a series of weak disturbances that will keep generally light and variable winds and slight seas over the area Wednesday and Thursday. The thermal trough returns late in the week or next weekend.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Selma, OR
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location: 42.42, -123.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 291603
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
903 am pdt Mon may 29 2017

Update
An update has been sent to fine tune the marine layer for this
morning. Otherwise the forecast remains unchanged and is well on
track. Btl

Discussion
The marine layer did, indeed, make it a bit further inland across
douglas county this morning, but didn't quite make it to the
umpqua divide. Also, jackson and most of josephine county are in
the clear. Thus, have updated to indicate this.

As for convective potential today, the going forecast looks pretty
well on track. There is certainly some question whether or not
we'll see thunderstorms make it into the west side valleys due to
developing low level northwest flow during peak heating. The
majority of the guidance indicates most shower and thunderstorm
activity over siskiyou county and along and near the cascades and
siskiyous. However, 850mb lis, favorable southeast winds around
20 knots on the west side in the 700-500mb layer, and the incoming
upper level vorticity maximum indicate a reasonable possibility
that storms will be able to push off of the mountains and over
the west side valleys. Areas to keep an eye to the sky today on
the west side are josephine county, the applegate valley, the
rogue valley, and areas east of roseburg. Locally gusty winds,
small hail, and, of course, lightning look to be the main threats
from these storms today. Locally heavy rainfall is also expected
with thunderstorms, especially in and near the marble mountains,
cascades, and siskiyous. Btl

Aviation 29 12z TAF cycle...

a mix of MVFR ifr ceilings will persist over the coastal waters
and along the coast today with patchy fog and drizzle. Marine
stratus has also spread into umpqua basin, and will likely linger
until roughly 1900 utc. The low CIGS will erode back to near the
coast this afternoon. The rest of the area will be mainlyVFR.

However, isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms
are possible west of the cascades and north of the siskiyous,
with scattered showers and thunderstorms from western siskiyou
county up the cascades this afternoon and evening. These storms
could be accompanied by locally gusty winds and small hail.

Btl bpn

Marine Updated 200 am Monday 29 may 2017... Winds are currently
light over the area... But there is widespread stratus and fog that
could produce some drizzle and occasionally reduce visibilities to
less than a half of a mile.

North winds have already started to increase this morning as a
thermal trough redevelops. Winds and seas will peak this afternoon
(likely below small craft advisory levels), then will weaken as a
disturbance moves onshore Tuesday. Additional weak disturbances will
keep generally light, variable winds and low seas over the area
Wednesday Thursday and even into Friday. The thermal trough is now
expected to return late Friday into next weekend with strengthening
north winds and steepening seas over most of the area, especially
south of CAPE blanco. -spilde bpn

Prev discussion issued 237 am pdt Mon may 29 2017
discussion... A strong upper ridge of high pressure continues to
dominate our weather this morning, but things will begin changing
today as a trough approaches from the west. The ridge axis has
already shifted just east of us, and this will allow for an
increase in moisture and instability which will lead to some
thunderstorms today. The focus remains over the mountains where
instability is strongest, capping the weakest, and where the
terrain can provide its own trigger. Modest height falls and some
pva this afternoon will also provide additional trigger to boost
the thunderstorm potential today. As mentioned, the bulk of storms
should remain in the mountains, but steering flow is slightly
east of due south, which may allow a storm to drift out over the
valleys late today. There is a lot of convective inhibition in the
valleys, but if a storm is able to get off the mountains, there
is a lot of low level instability to work with.

Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler and showery as the upper trough
moves onshore. The GFS has backed off on the hefty precipitation
it had been showing, and now the models generally agree that we'll
see some showers Tuesday, but not a big deal. We could still see
a thunderstorm from crater lake east on Tuesday, but this also
shouldn't be a big deal.

The remainder of the week should be relatively quiet with zonal
flow aloft, temperatures around normal, and some passing showers
from time to time. We may start to warm up a little next weekend
as ridging develops offshore. This will also lead to a thermal
trough and stronger north winds over the waters. -wright

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... None.

Btl trw bpn


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 36 mi63 min NNW 13 G 18 58°F 49°F1017.2 hPa (-0.7)
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 45 mi73 min N 14 G 16 53°F 55°F3 ft1017.3 hPa (-0.8)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 48 mi63 min SE 5.1 G 6 52°F 53°F1018 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR30 mi67 minVar 410.00 miOvercast56°F50°F81%1019.3 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W7NW10NW10
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NW9NW4NW4NE3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmS34CalmCalmCalmSE5S4W3W54SW4
1 day ago344S3S33CalmSE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmNW4CalmW6W3W6W7SW4
2 days ago44CalmSW53Calm3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmW34SW4--SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Mon -- 02:28 AM PDT     7.01 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:44 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:37 AM PDT     -1.56 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:00 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:17 PM PDT     5.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:46 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:45 PM PDT     2.25 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
56.26.96.96.14.72.91-0.5-1.4-1.5-0.80.62.345.25.75.64.9432.42.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Brookings, Chetco Cove, Oregon
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Brookings
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:20 AM PDT     7.38 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:45 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:25 AM PDT     -1.69 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:01 AM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:09 PM PDT     6.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:44 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:33 PM PDT     2.45 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
5.56.77.37.26.34.72.70.7-0.8-1.6-1.5-0.60.92.74.45.665.85.14.13.12.52.53.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_P
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
west_satellite

GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.