Thursday, November23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Cairo, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:56AMSunset 4:27PM Thursday November 23, 2017 9:40 AM EST (14:40 UTC) Moonrise 11:57AMMoonset 9:51PM Illumination 24% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Cairo, NY
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location: 42.42, -74.04     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 231426
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
926 am est Thu nov 23 2017

Synopsis
Mainly dry and continued chilly weather is expected today into
tonight, with light snow showers possible over the adirondacks.

Temperatures will moderate on Friday, before an approaching cold
front returns the chance for some showers on Saturday. It will
turn colder again on Sunday with some lake effect snow showers.

Near term through tonight
Just some minor adjustments to the forecast through this
afternoon based on current data and trends. Remaining dry with
some intermittent clouds around, especially in the southern
adirondacks and western mohawk valley. Previous afd has a few
more details and is below...

today, mainly dry and seasonably cool weather is expected.

Sunshine will be interrupted by periods of mid and high
cloudiness as the aforementioned shortwave energy passes, and
perhaps lingering lower stratus. In the wake of the shortwave,
the low midlevel flow will align out of the west-southwest to
support a period of lake effect snow showers over portions of
the western adirondacks this evening into tonight. Based on nam
forecast soundings at gtb rme, inversion heights briefly get
respectable around 3 km agl, but instability is marginal with
surface to 850 mb delta TS around 17c and falling through the
night as warm advection takes place. As such, expect only
minimal accumulation. May even see patchy light freezing
drizzle late tonight as moisture profiles suggest that we lose
cloud ice. Low temps tonight mainly in the 20s will be near to
below normal roughly along and south of i-90, and perhaps a bit
above normal north of there where a light to moderate
southwesterly breeze may keep temps elevated.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
850 mb warm air advection will continue Friday into Friday night
ahead of a deep low pressure system crossing from northern
ontario into northern quebec. Warm advection will be more muted
at the surface, but a light to increasingly moderate southerly
breeze with time along with the expectation of a good deal of
sunshine should allow high temps to be several degrees warmer
than thanksgiving day, back up toward normal values mainly in
the 40s. Low temps Friday night are tricky. Skies are expected
to be mostly clear overnight, so the driving factor for low
temps will be the winds. Pressure gradient supports the
continuation of a southerly breeze in many spots, especially
over higher terrain and in north south valleys, leading to mild
temps. However, sheltered spots could decouple, allowing temps
to drop toward the dewpoint in the 20s. 2m model temps are much
warmer than mos. Sided with the warmer 2m temps for northern
portions of the forecast area, and cooler MOS for southern
portions where winds are likely to be lighter. Forecast reflects
relatively uniform lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s, but in
actuality there will likely be sharp local gradients in the low
temps.

Saturday, the aforementioned low will drag its cold front across
the forecast area. Model depictions of this system have weakened
over the last several days. It appears the front will be
somewhat washed out and out of phase with the best midlevel
forcing sharpest shortwave trough. Model QPF fields reflect this
with a weakening band of showers Saturday morning along the
front. As a result, have mainly chance pops for the forecast
area. P-type should be mainly liquid during the daylight hours,
with some snow mixing in over the adirondacks. High temps near
to a bit above normal ahead of the front.

Gradual cold air advection will support a lake response Saturday
night as the midlevel trough swings into the area. H850 temps
forecast to fall to near -8c over the lake by 12z Sunday. Light
accumulations in the forecast over the mohawk valley adirondacks
since the cold air advection looks to be gradual. Lows settling
back into the mid-20s to mid-30s.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
The extended forecast will feature a moderating trend of
temperatures into the middle of next week.

The forecast area will be under the influence of cyclonic flow in
the low to mid levels of the atmosphere to close the weekend, and as
we enter Monday. One short-wave trough will move downstream of the
region on Sunday with some lake effect and upslope snow showers
persisting from the capital region north and west. Light snow
accums are possible especially for the western adirondacks, west-
central mohawk valley, and the northern and eastern catskills of a
few tenths to an inch or so. It will be brisk and cold with highs
in the mid 20s to lower 30s over the higher terrain, and lower to
upper 30s in the valleys. High pressure will be attempting to ridge
in from the ohio valley Sunday night, but another mid-level short-
wave trough will dive across southern quebec, northern ny from i-90
northward into new england with scattered snow showers and flurries
based on the latest 00z gfs ECMWF cmc GEFS mean. The short-wave will
be moisture starved with the best chance of some light accums once
again being the western adirondacks and western mohawk valley. Lows
will be in the 20s with some teens over the adirondack park and
southern greens. A lowering subsidence inversion will end the snow
showers across the western extreme of the forecast area on Monday.

Heights begin to rise aloft, as the sfc anticyclone builds in from
near the mid-atlantic coast. Temps rise back into the upper 30s to
lower 40s in the valley areas with a few mid 40s in NW ct and the
mid-hudson valley, and upper 20s to upper 30s over the mountains.

Monday night through Tuesday night... High pressure drifts offshore
with a warm front drifting north of the region Mon night. There is
not much moisture for this boundary to work with, as clouds will
increase and h850 temps rise about 1 to 2 std devs above normal
based on the latest gefs. After a chilly start to the day with lows
in the 20s, then expect high temps to be 10 to 15 degrees above
normal with upper 40s to lower 50s in the valleys, and 40s over the
higher terrain in the warm advection pattern on tue. A cold front
will be approaching from the west Tue night. The latest GFS is
faster than the ECMWF with the front. We have gone with the slower
timing based on the superblend of the guidance and wpc. Increasing
clouds Tue night with maybe a shower over the western adirondacks
late. Lows temps will be in the mid and upper 30s with a few lower
30s in the sheltered valleys.

Wednesday... The cold front moves through with limited low-level
moisture associated with it. A low chance of showers was kept in
the forecast north and west of the capital district with a slight
chance from the tri cities south and east. Highs will continue to
be above normal by 10-15 degrees for late nov before the cold
advection kicks in later in the day in the wake of the frontal
passage.

Temps look to be above normal for the long term with pcpn likely
below normal.

Aviation 15z Thursday through Monday
High pressure will continue to ridge in from the ohio valley
and pennsylvania this morning. The surface high will drift
eastward over the mid atlantic region during the afternoon, as
some clouds will increase ahead of the next upper level
disturbance for tonight.

Moisture is finally eroding beneath an inversion over kalb kpsf
based on the goes-16 satellite imagery this morning. High MVFR
clouds continue at kpsf in the 2.4-3.0 kft agl range. The
clouds should dissipate between 12z-14z at both these sites due
to the subsidence with the high.

Vfr conditions will continue during the late morning through the
afternoon with some mid and high clouds increasing ahead of the
next short-wave trough. Clouds bases will generally be broken in
the 10-15 kft agl range by 18z-22z. The clouds will continue to
thicken and lower into the overnight period especially from
kalb kpsf before thinning after 06z fri.

The winds will be north to northwest 5-12 kts this morning with
a few gusts around 20 kts at kpsf. The winds will be from the
southwest to west at 10 kts during afternoon before becoming
light and variable in direction at 5 kts or less tonight.

Outlook...

Friday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Chance of shra.

Saturday night: low operational impact. Slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Sunday: low operational impact. Breezy slight chance of shra... Shsn.

Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Fire weather
Mainly dry and chilly weather is expected today. Rh values will
fall to 40 to 70 percent, with the highest values in northern
and high terrain areas. West-northwest winds at 5 to 10 mph
today. Friday will be a bit milder with a southerly breeze at
5 to 15 mph and rh values bottoming out in the 45 to 65 percent
range. Scattered light showers are possible on Saturday, with
seasonable temperatures.

Hydrology
No hydrologic issues are anticipated through early next week.

Aside from a few passing light lake effect snow showers or
flurries over the adirondacks this evening into tonight, mainly
dry weather is expected through Friday night. A passing cold
front may bring some light rain showers to the area on
Saturday, possibly mixed with snow over the adirondacks. There
may be some additional lake-effect snow showers again for
western areas on Sunday, otherwise, mainly dry weather is
expected to end the weekend into early next week. This light
precipitation will have little to no impact on rivers and
streams. As a result, river and stream levels will generally
hold steady. Temperatures will be below normal today, returning
to seasonable values Friday and Saturday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the advanced hydrologic prediction service AHPS graphs
on our website.

Aly watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... None.

Ma... None.

Vt... None.

Synopsis... Frugis thompson
near term... Nas thompson
short term... Thompson
long term... Wasula
aviation... Wasula
fire weather... Thompson
hydrology... Frugis thompson


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 29 mi71 min 31°F 1020 hPa19°F
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 97 mi41 min NNW 7 G 9.9 34°F 51°F1018.7 hPa (+1.1)
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 99 mi41 min N 8.9 G 11 34°F 50°F1019.1 hPa (+0.9)

Wind History for Bridgeport, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY27 mi50 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy32°F19°F59%1020.3 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW9NW10NW12W12NW12
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2 days agoW8Calm3NW3W8W12W13
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W7W5CalmS3CalmCalmS6S7S6S9S5S63S4S7S11

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Thu -- 01:38 AM EST     0.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:46 PM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:42 PM EST     4.99 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
1.20.50.412.23.13.73.93.83.22.31.61.310.81.32.53.74.54.954.43.42.3

Tide / Current Tables for Coxsackie, Hudson River, New York
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Coxsackie
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:56 AM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM EST     3.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:55 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:04 PM EST     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:27 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 07:15 PM EST     4.59 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:50 PM EST     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.50.10.51.52.43.13.43.63.22.41.61.20.90.60.91.82.93.84.34.64.43.62.41.6

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.