Sunrise 5:51 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:15 AM   Moonset 8:35 AM

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FXUS61 KALY 281953 AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 353 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

SYNOPSIS
A frontal system will drop southward tonight into Monday morning bringing some showers and possible thunderstorms. The front will stall south of the region during Monday, then return northward Monday night into Tuesday with additional showers and thunderstorms.
The front will shift south and east of the region Wednesday into Thursday bringing fair weather and warmer temperatures back to the region.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
As of 350 PM EDT, clouds have increased across the region once again, with showers now spreading east across the Mohawk Valley/SW Adirondacks and Schoharie County. These showers will continue shifting east/southeast, encompassing most areas near and north of the I-90 corridor over the next 1-2 hours, with scattered showers extending southeast into northern portions of the mid Hudson Valley and Litchfield County during this time, and should expand into the mid Hudson Valley/SE Catskills and remainder of Litchfield County closer to, or after sunset.

Latest SPC Mesoanalysis indicates MU CAPES generally between 100-250 J/kg for areas within and west of the Hudson River Valley. So, can not completely rule out a few rumbles of thunder within these showers, with best chances across the Mohawk Valley, Schoharie County and eastern Catskills through this evening.

This initial area of showers should decrease in coverage from northwest to southeast later this evening, however additional isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the southern Adirondacks and upper Hudson Valley associated with an approaching cold front from the north.

Patchy fog may develop later tonight if mid level clouds clear out, especially in areas where rain falls earlier. Low temps mainly in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
Cold front will continue settling southward across the region Monday, before stalling to our south and southwest by later in the day. Some showers may be ongoing through mid morning across the southern Adirondacks and Lake George/Saratoga region, otherwise expect a break in any precipitation through at least early afternoon, with some clearing developing. Later in the afternoon, isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms may develop across the eastern Catskills, mid Hudson Valley and NW CT, which will remain proximate to the frontal boundary.
Temperatures will vary considerable from north to south across the region, with mainly 60s for areas north of I-90, and 70s to the south, with temps possibly reaching near 80 across portions of the mid Hudson Valley early Monday afternoon before dropping off behind the front. If clouds linger across the southern Adirondacks/upper Hudson Valley, there is some possibility that temps remain in the 50s, however this seems like a very low probability at this time.

The front slowly retreats back northward Monday night into Tuesday, while a mid level trough shifts eastward during Tuesday along with another cold front. This combination of features will bring additional showers and embedded thunderstorms later Monday night, especially for areas north of I-90 where mid level forcing will be greatest, and again Tuesday afternoon and night.
Will have to watch for any isolated stronger thunderstorm development for Tuesday afternoon/evening should any brief clearing develop prior to frontal passage, with this possibility mainly confined to the Mohawk Valley, SE Catskills and mid Hudson Valley region. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be possible given PWAT's exceeding 1.25 inches. Lows Monday night mainly in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s, with highs Tuesday in the 60s and lower 70s, although could be locally warmer if pockets of clearing briefly develop.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Initial system should shift east of the region during Wednesday, with some lingering showers in the morning followed by slow clearing in the afternoon. Then, a high degree of uncertainty for Thursday-Friday, as long term guidance suggests that despite mid/upper level ridging along/off the southeast coast, an upper level shortwave tracking along the northern periphery of this ridge may allow for some showers/thunderstorms Thursday-early Friday, along with potential cooling for Friday. At this time, it appears warmest temperatures may occur Thursday with 70s for many valley areas, then possibly cooling back into the 60s to lower 70s Friday with fair weather.

Another approaching shortwave and cold front may bring some showers/thunderstorms for Saturday-Sunday, although exact timing remains uncertain. Temperatures look seasonably warm next weekend with highs mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A warm front will bring an increase of clouds with showers and isolated thunderstorms late this afternoon into early this evening for KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. The showers increase 20Z/SUN to 00Z/MON. We did include thunderstorms for KALB/KPOU 21Z SUN to 01Z/MON with some elevated instability in TEMPO groups.
Cigs/vsbys were lowered to MVFR levels with the showers/isolated thunderstorms at all the TAF sites.

Conditions may briefly rise to VFR levels before another batch of showers arrive with the upper level disturbance and cold front. We tried to use PROB30 groups for 3-4 hrs prior to 07Z/MON and then have MVFR cigs (1.5-3.0 kft AGL) develop in the wake of the disturbance thereafter until 12-15Z/MON with VFR conditions with cigs 3.5-5 kft AGL returning.

South to southeast winds 5-10 KT with a few gusts 15-18 KT at KALB will veer to the southwest to west at 5-10 KT around 00Z/MON. The winds will further shift to the northwest to north at around 5-10 KT overnight and continue through Monday morning.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact
Scattered SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact
Definite SHRA
TSRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

HYDROLOGY
A few rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected this evening through Tuesday night, with a few brief downpours possible.

More widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected Tuesday afternoon and night, and with abundant moisture available, locally heavy rainfall will be possible, especially where multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms occur. This may lead to some ponding of water in urban/poor drainage areas. WPC has placed much of the region within a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall during this period.

ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

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New Baltimore
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Sun -- 12:14 AM EDT     Moonrise
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Sun -- 08:34 AM EDT     Moonset
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Sun -- 05:53 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:50 AM EDT     5.24 feet High Tide
Sun -- 08:35 AM EDT     Moonset
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