Sunrise 5:56 AM   Sunset 8:06 PM Moonrise 1:47 AM   Moonset 11:15 AM

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LOZ044 Expires:202405010315;;395349 Fzus51 Kbuf 302124 Nshbuf
nearshore marine forecast national weather service buffalo ny 524 pm edt Tue apr 30 2024
for waters within five nautical miles of shore
waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.
loz043-044-010315- hamlin beach to mexico bay along lake ontario including irondequoit bay- 524 pm edt Tue apr 30 2024
Tonight - Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north. Showers likely early. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday - Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less. Wednesday night - East winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Thursday - West winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Thursday night - North winds 10 knots or less becoming east. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less. Friday - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less. Saturday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. Showers likely. Waves 1 foot or less. Sunday - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
the water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.

LOZ005
No data

FXUS61 KBGM 010558 AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 158 AM EDT Wed May 1 2024

SYNOPSIS
Dry weather has returned for today into Friday. Temperatures will remain above average for early May.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
11 pm update...

Increased fog with many sites reporting it and where clearing is in Yates and Steuben it is dense. Sped up departure of rain showers. Increased cloud cover in the northeast.

655 PM Update...

With the weak cold front that has since moved through the forecast area, leftover thunderstorms remain at the very southeastern edge of NE PA that will continue to decay through the next 30 minutes to an hour. Widespread light rain showers remain behind this front in Central NY, and will continue through through the next 4 to 6 hours or so. The only major change to this forecast update was decreasing chances for thunderstorms through tonight and tomorrow. Otherwise, forecast remains on track.

205 PM update...

With plentiful sunshine this morning into the early afternoon, 1000 to 1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE has developed across the Finger Lakes down into NEPA. Wind shear is weakening as the stronger 500 mb winds move off to the east but still there is 30 knots of 0-6 km shear through the rest of the afternoon. With a shortwave trough moving in, falling heights and weak cold air advection have weakened the cap with storms developing. Storms will likely grow upscale in the next few hours with the potential for a few microburst and up to quarter size hail.
Heavy rainfall is possible with these storms as they grow upscale and become more like an MCS. Some of the high res models have stripes of 1 to 2 inches with these storms through the evening so after the severe threat is over, a flash flood risk takes over. The trough axis moves east of the region after midnight with chances of precipitation dwindling quickly. With the precipitation, fog could develop if the clouds can clear before sunrise tomorrow.

Tomorrow will have slightly cooler aloft so temperatures will be about 10 degrees cooler than today but still above average. A subsidence inversion in place will keep the atmosphere stable but some drizzle is possible at high elevations of the Catskills and Poconos good boundary layer moisture flows over the summits and cools adiabatically.

Better chance of fog on Wednesday night as surface high pressure builds in with winds calming down and good radiational cooling.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
317 Update...

Surface ridging will shift from the Great Lakes into New England Thursday and Friday, with fair weather expected through the period. A shortwave trough will be dropping across northern New England, but its effects look to stay east of our area on Thursday.

With low level NW flow on Thursday, temperatures will be cooler north of the Twin Tiers, where highs will be in the mid to upper-60s. 70s will be more common across the Tiers, with upper-70s in the Wyoming Valley.

Light southerly flow and warm advection will boost temperatures into the 70s area-wide on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
317 PM Update...

A weak frontal boundary will push into the area from the west Friday night into Saturday, despite upper level ridging in place. Scattered rain showers are expected to spread into the Finger Lakes Friday night, reaching east of the I-81 corridor before Saturday morning. Isolated to scattered showers will linger through the day Saturday, with highs dropping into the 60s over most areas. A second front will quickly push into the Great Lakes Sunday, with shower chances increasing later Sunday afternoon. The shortwave trough associated with this system looks to stay focused to our north, however, and this will mean less upper level support, and spotty/disorganized shower coverage. Temps look to be similar to Saturday.

Drier weather looks to arrive, once again, just in time for the start of the workweek on Monday. A warm front to our south may become the focus for showers heading into Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
145 am update...

IFR fog is across most of CNY and should remain through 12z.
Some sites have or will drop below airport minimums. Conditions improve to VFR by 16z in south central NY by 16z and SYR/RME by 18z.

AVP is VFR for now. They could drop to MVFR in fog and low cigs at times from 8 to 12z.

Early this morning winds will be light and variable. During the day winds will be northwest at 5 to 10 kts. Tonight winds will be 5 kts of less from the east and southeast.

Outlook...

Tonight and Thursday...VFR Likely.

Friday...Mainly VFR, but late day showers/t'storms possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms.

BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PA...None.
NY...None.

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