Saturday, May25, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marathon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:32AMSunset 8:31PM Saturday May 25, 2019 7:22 AM EDT (11:22 UTC) Moonrise 12:28AMMoonset 10:33AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201905250915;;420178 Fzus51 Kbuf 250543 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 143 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-250915- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 143 Am Edt Sat May 25 2019
Overnight..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely in the evening, then a chance of showers overnight. Some Thunderstorms may produce gusty winds in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly to mostly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 48 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marathon, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 251032
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
632 am edt Sat may 25 2019

Synopsis
A warm frontal boundary will move into the region today
providing some scattered showers. The warm front will then be
followed by a cold frontal passage tonight and Sunday with more
in the way of some showers and thunderstorms. High pressure
makes a brief visit Monday with a break from the rain.

Near term through tonight
Patchy fog has formed early this morning. However, this layer of
fog is very thin and should continue to quickly burn off
through 8am. A few observations indicate a few dense spots but
not enough to warrant a sps. Otherwise, no forecast changes with
the sunrise update.

Today:
a warm front will move into western portions of the region today
with the main cold front and low pressure system well to our
northwest. The warm front will only slowly move east throughout the
day. Moisture will be lifted along the front for the generation of
another round of clouds by this afternoon with some scattered
showers. Right modeling is keying in on the mid afternoon hours for
this round of scattered showers. Some instability may advect into
locations near the warm front for a few thunderstorms as well.

Temperatures look to be cooler in the east northwest of the warm
front and warmest in the finger lakes and steuben county just behind
the warm front. Highs today are expected to range throughout the
70's across the region.

A cold frontal boundary with an associated low pressure system will
then head southeast into the region Saturday night. Another round of
showers and a few thunderstorms is expected in the late evening and
overnight hours as modeling is trending slower with the timing.

Also, the previously mentioned warm front puts on the breaks which
limits the instability advection.

The main concern with this next round of showers and thunderstorms
is the increasing amount of moisture transported ahead of the front.

Pw values are modeled to approach and exceed 1.5 inches in spots
meaning these storms will be efficient rain producers. For locations
with instability, a tall skinny CAPE profile is present which also
typically indicates heavy rain as a main threat. This storm will
have lots of shear to produce strong to severe storms. However, the
instability advection needed for this will be limited and mainly
confined to the finger lakes and steuben county. With clouds and
showers, lows tonight look warmer in the 60's.

Short term Sunday through Monday
Sunday and Sunday night:
the previously mentioned cold front weakens across northern pa on
Sunday. Enough moisture may be present for isolated to scattered
shower or thunderstorms south of route 17 in ny and for NE pa.

Modeled soundings differ quite a bit from the NAM and gfs. The nam
sounding for the scranton wilkes-barre area indicated the
environment would support these scattered storms to become strong to
severe in the afternoon with a threat for gusty winds. As is
typically the case, the GFS is considerably less aggressive
with any strong storm threat. For now, will just a carry low
chances of showers and storms across NE pa and the southern
tier. Highs should climb with more in the way of sunshine into
the 70's and even 80's. The front shifts farther south Sunday
night ending any shower chances with lows falling back into the
50's.

Monday:
with ridging expected, both at the surface and aloft, dry weather
conditions are expected across the region for memorial day.

Afternoon temperatures should be at least at (if not a little above)
what should be seen this time of year, with highs in the 70s.

Long term Monday night through Friday
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to return to our region
after memorial day.

A shortwave trough is expected to move into our area from the upper
midwest Monday night, which should aid in brining a warm front
northward heading into Tuesday. The front will likely be
oriented northwest-southeast across the forecast area Tuesday,
but this will ultimately depend on the location strength of the
upper-level ridging. Point is - the boundary will probably make
it farther north across western parts of our forecast area with
this initial wave. Odds of seeing showers and thunderstorms will
return as this happens.

By Wednesday, a stronger shortwave trough should eject from the
central plains as another piece of energy amplifies the trough
moving into ontario. It now looks less likely that phasing will
occur between these two systems, with the "southern piece" skirting
across southern ontario during the Wednesday night Thursday time
frame. While this may aid in bringing the surface front a little
farther north, I don't have as much confidence in it making north of
our forecast area like I did yesterday morning.

Temperature-wise, if the system evolves this way, less of the
forecast area will likely be in the warm sector for Wednesday. I'll
take a more conservative route this morning with temperatures during
this period and not make any significant changes. With regard to
the sensible weather, periods of showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue.

The associated cold front is expected to enter our western counties
Thursday morning. It should move across the forecast area during
the day as energy associated with the deeper upper trough moves
across eastern canada. Expect a continued shot of seeing convection
until the passage of the front, although overall coverage should
diminish by afternoon as drier air starts moving into the boundary
layer.

After passage of the cold front, we should see a mostly dry day
Friday as high pressure moves into the region from the great
lakes.

Aviation 12z Saturday through Wednesday
MainlyVFR through the TAF period. One batch ofVFR scattered
vfr showers is expected in the afternoon. Showers look more
widespread and heavier in the evening hours with lowering
ceilings and visibilities into the MVFR range as a result.

Ceilings will likely lower further overnight tonight to fuel-
alternate and perhaps ifr.

Outlook...

Sunday...VFR north. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, with
possible brief restrictions for kelm, kbgm and kavp.

Memorial day...VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday through Wednesday... MainlyVFR. Scattered showers and
thunderstorm may bring brief restriction at some terminals in
the afternoon and evening hours.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Mwg
near term... Mwg
short term... Dab mwg
long term... Dab
aviation... Mwg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 74 mi41 min SSE 8 G 9.9 52°F 1020 hPa49°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 95 mi83 min SE 5.1 G 8 56°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 97 mi41 min 56°F 1017.8 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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E1
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY16 mi27 minE 410.00 miFair51°F48°F92%1021.3 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY17 mi30 minSSE 63.00 miFair48°F46°F96%1021.8 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW16
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NW13NW8NW12NW12
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NW8N6N7NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmE3E4E5E3E4E3E4
1 day agoS8SE8S8S6S5S7S8S11
G15
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S12S9W13
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G25
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NW9NW6NW10NW14NW12
G17
NW10NW13
2 days agoCalmCalmW334E4CalmNW5CalmE5SE7S7SE5S6S9S8E7SE7SE8SE8S7SE6SE7SE9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (7,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.