Wednesday, November14, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marathon, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:54AMSunset 4:44PM Wednesday November 14, 2018 2:57 PM EST (19:57 UTC) Moonrise 12:42PMMoonset 10:44PM Illumination 42% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1231 Pm Est Wed Nov 14 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 10 pm est this evening...
This afternoon..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of snow showers early. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tonight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast and diminishing to 10 knots or less overnight. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Snow likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east 5 to 15 knots. Snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west and increasing to 15 to 25 knots. Snow with rain likely during the day, then a chance of rain and snow Friday night. Waves 1 foot or less building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of rain and snow showers Saturday night. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. A chance of snow and rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811142200;;300893 FZUS51 KBUF 141751 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 PM EST Wed Nov 14 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-142200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marathon, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 141919
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
219 pm est Wed nov 14 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will keep things quiet, dry and very cold
tonight. Our next winter storm will approach Thursday,
initiating another round of snow, changing to a wintry mix
across the entire forecast area. Snow lingers into Friday
morning, then lake effect snow showers Friday afternoon and
Friday night. Remaining cold with possible light snow or snow
showers through the weekend.

Near term through tonight
215 pm update... Lake effect is becoming more scattered and
cellular in nature across central ny late this afternoon.

Therefore, have decided to cancel the remaining winter weather
advisories as only an additional coating to 2 inches are
expected locally through early evening. Updated pops, wx, temps
and sky grids to reflect the latest trends. Isolated to
scattered snow showers will continue into the early evening
hours before tapering to just flurries and eventually ending
altogether. Lake clouds will be slow to dissipate, but
eventually should overnight.

Outside of the above mentioned lake effect snow showers, expect
partly cloudy skies with just a few snow flurries around into
the evening hours. It will be cold this evening with temperatures
falling through the 20s... Along with northwest winds 6-12 mph.

Tonight will be partly cloudy and very cold as a surface high
pressure moves overhead. Lows will be in the teens to lower
20s... Except perhaps some single digits in the colder spots
north and east. Light and variable winds. Mid and high clouds
increase toward daybreak, especially south.

Short term Thursday through Friday
5 am update... Tricky period, with the main systems being a
negatively tilted upper trough and associated deepening surface
low, tracking up the eastern seaboard. Model agreement on this
basic evolution is good, so confidence on a widespread winter
precipitation event is high. However, smaller, but crucial
details regarding specific thermal profiles and the development
of a potential deformation snow band early Friday have yet to be
worked out.

This storm will come in several pieces. The first shot of steady
snow, via strong warm air advection forcing and jet support,
will arrive for the late morning and afternoon hours Thursday.

Several inches of accumulation are possible.

Thursday evening, steadier snow should taper off to light sleet
for the southern tier of ny and nepa, with perhaps a touch of
freezing rain in the pocono plateau, as forced lift temporarily
weakens, and a warm layer aloft develops.

Starting in the pre-dawn hours Friday, as the coastal storm
really begins to intensify along the DELMARVA nj coasts, there
are decent model signals that a strong deformation frontogenesis
band develops in the cyclone's northwest quadrant. Right now,
the best chance for heavy snow tied to this feature looks to
exist for areas near and west of i-81. Consequently, we've
hoisted a winter storm watch for these areas. Present
indications are that any heavier snow bands should weaken exit
the region by midday Friday, with just a few leftover rain or
snow showers in the afternoon. Once the snow stops, Friday
afternoon should be milder, with highs ranging from the mid
30s-lower 40s.

Long term Friday night through Tuesday
Forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend. Little
change overall to prior forecast; still looking quite cold with
weak waves and or lake effect.

Previous discussion...

some potential for lake effect snows continues into the weekend
as flow remains broadly cyclonic aloft with sufficiently cold,
unstable air pouring across lake ontario through Saturday.

Diffuse higher pressure as seen on the ECMWF may stifle the lake
snow showers by Sunday, however, GFS and canadian models
diverge on bringing in an upper level disturbance with a ribbon
of moisture from the ohio valley for some broad scale light
snow. Given the complicated nature of this entire week forecast,
have taken a broad approach to these outer periods with
generally a chance of snow showers across upstate ny and mainly
flurries for nepa through Monday. Right now, Tuesday seems to be
the least chance for precipitation in the area.

Aviation 19z Wednesday through Monday
MainlyVFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Could
see tempo MVFR or even brief fuel alternate CIGS vis INVOF kbgm,
ksyr and kith into the late afternoon hours as scattered snow
showers move through. Skies become mostly clear with just sct to
bkn high clouds overnight. A mid level cloud layer moves in from
the south later Thursday morning as the next storm system approaches.

Northwest winds 8-15 kts with a few higher gusts this
afternoon, become light and variable in the evening. Winds turn
east-southeast late tonight into Thursday morning, 5 to 10kts.

Outlook...

Thursday afternoon through Friday... Significant restrictions as
a large system brings snow-to-wintry mix across the region.

Friday night through Saturday... Intermittent restrictions from
lake effect snow showers; mainly ksyr-krme but possibly others.

Sunday - Monday... Weak passing wave with possible light
snow restrictions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter storm watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for paz038.

Ny... Winter storm watch from Thursday morning through Friday
afternoon for nyz015>018-022>025-044-055.

Synopsis... Mjm
near term... Mjm
short term... Mlj
long term... Jab mdp
aviation... Mjm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 74 mi46 min NW 7 G 12 29°F 16°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 95 mi58 min NNW 13 G 15 30°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 97 mi46 min 30°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY16 mi2 hrsNW 102.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist25°F21°F86%1031.2 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY17 mi65 minNW 9 G 169.00 miOvercast24°F17°F75%1032.1 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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----------NW12
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N5--N7NW8NW7NW10N8
1 day agoS6SE4SE3SE5S8S6S7SE5S11S5SE4CalmCalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW9NW9NW7W7
2 days ago5W5CalmS3E3SE4SE6SE5S5SE4SE3SE5SE3S4S3CalmCalmE3SE5S7S10S7S5SE6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.