Thursday, November22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dryden, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:39PM Thursday November 22, 2018 5:21 AM EST (10:21 UTC) Moonrise 4:42PMMoonset 6:04AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 103 Am Est Thu Nov 22 2018
.small craft advisory in effect until 7 am est this morning...
Overnight..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Scattered snow showers. Waves 4 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 9 feet.
Thursday..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Scattered snow showers in the morning, then scattered flurries in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday night..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming south 10 to 15 knots. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mainly clear in the evening, then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southeast 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then rain showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west. Rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811221015;;668882 FZUS51 KBUF 220603 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 103 AM EST Thu Nov 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-221015-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dryden, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 220945
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
445 am est Thu nov 22 2018

Synopsis
Record cold arctic air has descended upon our region for
thanksgiving through early Friday. Scattered lake effect
flurries will persist through mid day, especially in the finger
lakes region, with possible light fluffy accumulations. While
cold, it will otherwise be dry through Saturday morning.

Temperatures moderate over the weekend, with some rain expected.

Near term now through Friday
340 am update...

an arctic air mass has overspread the region and will continue
to be felt through early Friday before slight moderation begins.

Daily records will fall today and tonight, and thanksgiving
holiday statistics may also be met or broken. See climate
section below for details.

The air mass is not just cold but also very dry. Dewpoints are
well below zero until just a little moisture off of lake
ontario and the finger lakes, to allow downstream dewpoints to
be in the single digits above zero. Entrainment of dry air is
greatly limiting coverage and intensity of lake effect bands,
but indeed they still exist since the dendritic growth zone is
pretty much sitting on the surface through the lowest few
thousand feet above ground level. Narrow lake effect bands will
continue via 310-320 degree flow, especially in the finger lakes
region, with light accumulations possible this morning. Mostly
under an inch, but in the sweet spots just southeast of the
finger lake tips there could be 1-2 inches of fluff. Very high
snow-to-liquid ratios can be expected; around 25-to-1.

After highs of only mid teens to near 20 today, flow GOES calm
tonight as the arctic high passes directly over the region. The
resulting clearing sky along with some snow on the ground will
allow for ideal radiational cooling to realize daily record lows
in the single digits above and below zero. In fact, records
that are neared or eclipsed this morning, could be broken again
by midnight for the 22nd, then a new set broken yet again by
dawn for the 23rd. The only caveat is if a very thin layer of
lake clouds ends up not totally breaking up in the stagnant flow
overnight, to hold temperatures up slightly, but odds favor a
full clear out.

Despite it being very cold Friday, especially in the morning, it
will be otherwise a crisp pretty day with plenty of sunshine.

High pressure will head for the jersey shore, and southerly
return flow will get started to help temperatures begin to
moderate. Highs will be in the mid to upper 20s; about 8-10
degrees higher than thanksgiving yet also still a good 16-20
degrees short of climatology.

Short term Friday night through Saturday night
Ridging, both at the surface and aloft, should move east of the
region Friday night. Despite an increasingly southwest flow ahead
of the next storm system, Friday night should remain dry for most of
the forecast area. With a warmer airmass moving into the region, a
largely non-diurnal temperature trend is expected. Low temperatures
will probably be reached early in the night in most places.

Deeper moisture, coincident with decent synoptic scale forcing,
should arrive in the southwestern part of my forecast area by
Saturday morning. This will result in the development of
precipitation, which is expected to spread north and east Saturday
morning. Depending on when the precipitation moves into our area,
it could initially fall as freezing rain. Supported by a sampling
of forecast soundings around steuben and bradford counties, this
would be due to warm advection occurring Friday night in the 850-700
hpa layer. Any freezing precipitation should transition to a cold
rain by midday and continue through Saturday night as low
pressure moves northeast.

A deep moisture plume associated with this storm system (with
precipitable water values around 1 inch possible) could lead to some
heavier rain falling during the day Saturday. Right now, this risk
area appears to be primarily across southern eastern areas. Here,
stronger forcing could interact with terrain in the
poconos catskills. We'll continue to monitor for the time being.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
In summary - unsettled weather is expected to continue across the
region during the day 4 through 7 period.

Low pressure off the new england coast is expected to shift east
Sunday morning, and allow (very) weak shortwave ridging to traverse
the forecast area. Unfortunately, this will be short-lived. The
upper flow should become southwesterly Sunday night, ahead of a
storm system moving across the upper midwest ohio valley. This
system will likely be the dominant player in weather
conditions early next week.

Precipitation will likely move into the forecast area from the
southwest heading into Monday morning as the storm system occludes
near lake erie. Soggy conditions will likely be seen for most of the
day Monday as the primary surface low moves into southern ontario,
aided by shortwave energy pivoting around the upper low.

Precipitation coverage will likely diminish from the south west
heading toward Monday night, as some slightly drier air attempts to
work its way into the storm system.

Expected layer temperatures, as well as an examination of a sampling
of forecast soundings across the region suggest the
precipitation should primarily be liquid during the
Sunday Monday time frame. Cold advection through 700 mb will
likely occur from Monday night into Tuesday, and probably result
in the return of frozen precipitation for the day 6 and 7 time
frame.

Speaking of, the flow around an elongated area of low pressure
across (primarily) southern ontario will likely result in some lake-
effect snow across the region heading toward mid-week. After a
period of near seasonal temperatures early in the week, expect a
another cool down for the middle of next week.

Aviation 10z Thursday through Monday
06z update...

arctic air will continue to spill over the region via northwest
wind 8-10 knots with gusts 14-18 knots. This will pick up lake
moisture to produce flurries this morning for ksyr-kith-kbgm-
kelm causing intermittent MVFR restrictions; brief ifr
visibilities at times for kith-ksyr. OtherwiseVFR conditions
with clouds scattering and then clearing late.

Outlook...

late Thursday night through early Saturday...VFR.

Midday Saturday through early Sunday... Restrictions likely in rain
and lower ceilings.

Midday Sunday through Sunday evening... MainlyVFR.

Late Sunday night through Monday... Restrictions likely again
with rain, possibly mixed with snow at times.

Climate
Here are plenty of statistics and climatology for our very cold
arctic air mass, which will meet or break several records.

November 22 daily records:
syracuse: low minimum 11 2008 and low maximum 24 2008.

Syracuse forecast: already tied low minimum at 3am this morning,
and will likely break the record. It could be broken again by
midnight. New record will also easily be set for low maximum;
forecast high of 18.

Binghamton: low minimum 10 1989 and low maximum 22 2008.

Binghamton forecast: already tied low minimum at 3am this
morning, and will likely break the record. It could be broken
again by midnight. New record will also easily be set for low
maximum; forecast high of 15.

Avoca (wilkes-barre scranton): low minimum 15 most recent 2014.

Low maximum 28 2008. Avoca forecast: only 2 degrees from low
minimum at 3am this morning; record may be tied or broken this
morning, and then possibly again by midnight. New record will
also easily be set for low maximum; forecast high of 21.

November 23 daily records:
syracuse: record low 6 2008. Forecast: 3 (forecast new record)
binghamton: record low 12 2008. Forecast: 0 (easily new record)
avoca: record low 13 1972. Forecast: 6 (easily new record)
thanksgiving holiday records - date differs by year:
syracuse: low minimum 9 1938 and low maximum 18 1903. Syracuse
forecast: nearly record minimum this morning; could be broken
again by midnight. Also near record low maximum for high;
forecast is a tie at 18.

Binghamton: low minimum 9 1996 and low maximum 21 1996.

Binghamton forecast: probably tying or breaking record this
morning; it could be broken again by midnight. New record low
maximum will easily be set; forecast high of 15.

Avoca (wilkes-barre scranton): low minimum 12 1903. Low maximum
21 1901. Avoca forecast: may get near record low this morning,
and then even more likely by midnight. Also near record low
maximum for high; forecast high is a tie at 21.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Wind chill advisory until noon est today for nyz009-046-057-
062.

Synopsis... Mdp
near term... Mdp
short term... Dab
long term... Dab
aviation... Mdp
climate... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi33 min NW 18 G 22 1030.1 hPa
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 91 mi21 min N 17 G 22 20°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 92 mi39 min 20°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY11 mi25 minNW 99.00 miLight Snow12°F5°F73%1030.2 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY21 mi28 minNNW 910.00 miMostly Cloudy8°F1°F76%1028.6 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmW5W7W6NW3W6NW13
G20
NW12NW7W10NW9NW11W7NW6N3CalmN5SW3S5SW12SW11
2 days agoCalmNW3N3N5N3NW3NE3CalmNE3E3SE3SE5E4CalmE4E4E4CalmCalmE3CalmNW4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.