Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dryden, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 5:45PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:07 PM EST (17:07 UTC) Moonrise 7:11PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Expires:201902201600;;226119 Fzus51 Kbuf 201131 Nshbuf Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo Ny 631 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019 For Waters Within Five Nautical Miles Of Shore Waves Are The Significant Wave Height - The Average Of The Highest 1/3 Of The Wave Spectrum. Occasional Wave Height Is The Average Of The Highest 1/10 Of The Wave Spectrum. Loz043-044-201600- Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 4 pm est this afternoon through late Thursday night...
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. A chance of light snow early this afternoon. Light snow likely late. Waves 1 foot or less building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest. Rain, light snow, light sleet and light freezing rain in the evening, then rain and light freezing rain overnight. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..West winds 15 to 25 knots increasing to 30 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 6 feet building to 7 to 10 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots becoming northwest and diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Rain Saturday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming west and increasing to 35 knot gales. Rain showers during the day, then snow showers likely Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 10 to 15 feet. Waves occasionally around 19 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 35 degrees.
LOZ044


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dryden, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.28     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 201425
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
925 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
Another light wintry mix today and tonight will move across the
region, along with gusty south winds. Mostly quiet conditions
later in the day Thursday through Friday into early Saturday.

The next low pressure system will impact the region later
Saturday through Sunday into Monday with more wintry mix and
strong winds.

Near term through Thursday
As of mid-morning the leading edge of the snowfall is being
eroded away by a considerable amount of dry air in place. With
saturation being slower, snow totals were slightly reduced in
portions of NE pa. The general expectation though of light snow
this afternoon going to a wintry mix tonight and light rain or
drizzle by Thursday morning is still in place.

340 am update...

main concerns in the near term remain focused on the incoming
wintery mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain later today and
tonight... Along with strong S SE winds across the finger lakes
tonight and noticeably warmer temperatures on Thursday with
lingering light rain snow showers to the north.

High pressure at the surface shifting off to the east this
morning but still having enough influence on the area to keep
weather conditions quiet. High clouds have moved in, and will
continue to see clouds thicken through the morning before snow
moves in from the S SW around 9 to 10 am into NE pa. Atmosphere
still expected to be cold enough for all snow through most of
the afternoon with the snow shield spreading to the northeast,
and dropping 1-2 inches across central ny and 2 to 3 inches into
ne pa. This part of the forecast remains relatively unchanged.

However, there have been slight adjustments made to the total
snow and ice accumulations... Especially during the evening and
early overnight hours.

Model guidance has come into slightly better agreement with
respect to the the depth and amt of warm air aloft and cold air
near the surface. At this time there appears to be a greater
potential of sleet rather than freezing rain... Although light
ice amounts are still expected... So this result has caused
total snow amounts to be slightly higher than the previous
forecast, although not substantially higher. With the p-type
leaning more toward sleet, this will cut back on the ice
accretion... With most areas of central ny less than 0.05"... And
areas of NE pa 0.10" or less.

Still expecting a change over of snow to sleet from west to
east during the late afternoon and early evening time
frame... And then a couple hours later, mixing with freezing
rain. The freezing precip may end up actually being fairly
light... More likely freezing drizzle as the column loses ice
crystals aloft and the dry wedge moves in from the west.

The sfc pressure gradient tightens this evening as the surface
low to the west deepens slightly and moves east... And the high
off the coast takes its time moving out of the area. These two
features will cause sustained south SE winds around 10 to 20 mph
and gusts up to 30 mph into the finger lakes. Gusty winds are
possible in the higher terrain of the catskills and the
allegheny plateau, but the strongest winds will be from
downsloping into the finger lakes.

Wintry mix will taper off west to east after midnight and change
to mostly liquid (drizzle or light rain) for most of the area by
or just after sunrise Thursday morning. The air mass behind the
departing system will be fairly cold once again... And allow for
a weak lake reaction across the far NRN counties into Thursday
afternoon. Surface temperatures will warm into the upper 30s
north and into the lower 40s south. Even with temperatures above
freezing, the air mass aloft will likely be supportive of light
snow or drizzle off the lake into mainly oneida county. Areas
south of the thruway will likely be dry most of the day Thursday
as the dry punch and surface ridge axis pushes east.

Short term Thursday night through Friday night
310 am update...

fairly benign period expected in the short term with little if
any precipitation behind the front Thursday night, then a
gradual breakup of stratocumulus Friday into Friday night.

Weak cold air advection will continue Thursday night along with
west-northwest flow. The moisture that will exist will be quite
shallow; confined to a sharp inversion around or below the 800mb
level. While it appears that there will likely be stratocumulus
for most of the area, the depth of the moisture will make
precipitation hard to come by. The top of the layer reaches to
about minus 10 celsius Thursday evening, which should prevent
drizzle freezing drizzle by then. However, a few scant flurries
cannot be ruled out in central ny north of cortland-norwich and
mostly east of syracuse. With the clouds, temperatures will be
prevented from dropping any lower than 20s for lows.

Stratocumulus layer will thin with time of Friday, and as usual
it will linger longest in north central new york while others
will start getting into more sunshine especially in afternoon.

High pressure will pass across the region Friday afternoon-
evening, then just east by dawn Saturday. Highs of mid 30s-lower
40s Friday, will be followed by lows of upper teens-mid 20s
Friday night thanks to a mostly clear sky allowing for
radiational cooling.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday
310 am update...

main concern in the long term period, is the increasing signal
for a possible wind event as a deepening low pressure system
passes through the region Sunday into Monday. Also, the same
system will bring varying types of precipitation ahead of,
during, and behind the system.

A low pressure center is projected to exit the central plains
Saturday, which then rapidly deepens Saturday night into Sunday
while moving through the western great lakes into ontario-
quebec. To differing degrees, yet with the same general idea,
the ECMWF canadian and especially GFS models have this occur as
southern stream and northern stream upper waves phase with each
other while lifting northeastward. Based on local studies there
are several parameters meeting thresholds of past stronger wind
events including 925-850mb winds exceeding 50 knots, low level
lapse rates in excess of 8 deg c km, as well as a strong
pressure rise-fall couplet in terms of 6 hour pressure change.

While zone of strongest winds and pressure rises appears to
translate from western to northern ny and especially into
canada, areawide it appears that it will get quite gusty Sunday
through Sunday night and perhaps into Monday as well. If a
verbatim GFS solution were to pan out, damaging gusts are not
out the question especially from the finger lakes to mohawk
valley areas but perhaps further south too. Sometimes the
magnitude of a potential wind event looks high several days
out, only to diminish as it gets closer. For now though, we will
be adding mention of this potential to our local hazardous
weather outlook for northern parts of our area to raise
awareness, where potential is higher, and we will otherwise
continue to monitor trends in coming days.

Besides wind, the other impacts of this system of course will
involve precipitation. Strong warm air advection will occur
especially later Saturday into Sunday. As increasing moisture
and lift occur on the front side of the system, a shield of
precipitation will lift south to north across the area later
Saturday through especially Saturday night. It is not totally
impossible that a brief wintry mix could occur, especially
higher terrain east of i-81, but overall it appears strength of
warm air advection as well as relatively limited cold air
damming in the low levels will make rain the predominant
precipitation type. Temperatures will surge into Sunday with
highs of at least upper 40s-lower 50s expected.

Blast of cold air advection and gusty winds will then occur
later Sunday through Monday. What is left of rain showers will
change back to snow showers Sunday night. Some accumulating
lake snows could occur into Monday in parts of central new york
with gusty cyclonic flow on the back side of the system with
potential to pick up great lakes moisture from well upstream.

Then, brief ridging by Monday night into Tuesday appears to
yield a temporary respite of quiet weather.

Aviation 15z Wednesday through Sunday
An area of snow will move in after 15z from southwest to
northeast and eventually change to a snow sleet mix for period
after 21z, and then mix in some freezing rain after 02z
Thursday. Expect ifr visibilities between 3 4sm and 2sm in
moderate snow with ceilings between 1000 and 2000 feet. Vsbys
will improve with the transition to a wintry mix... With cigs
remaining in the fuel alternate required to low-end MVFR range.

The mix of freezing rain and sleet will then transition to light
rain or drizzle after 05z and taper off from west to east just
before 12z for most locations. Krme may keep a very light wintry
mix through 12z.

A strong S SW low level jet around 40-50 kt will induce some
llws across the area after 00z Thursday... And persist through
the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Thursday... Very light rain showers or
drizzle continues Thursday with brief isolated restrictions
possible. Light lake effect rain and eventually snow showers at
krme may reduce vsbys and CIGS as well Thursday night.

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Sunday... Restrictions likely in mixed
precipitation.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for paz038>040-
043-044-047-048-072.

Ny... Winter weather advisory until 7 am est Thursday for nyz009-
015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

Synopsis... Bjt
near term... Bjt mwg
short term... Mdp
long term... Mdp
aviation... Bjt djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi38 min SSE 8 G 13 22°F 1029.5 hPa10°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 91 mi68 min SE 13 G 16 25°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 92 mi38 min 27°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NW13
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY11 mi72 minSSE 810.00 miOvercast24°F12°F62%1030.5 hPa
Binghamton, Binghamton Regional Airport, NY21 mi75 minSSE 1110.00 miOvercast20°F10°F65%1030.6 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW13
G19
NW12NW7N7NW3N3NE3E4E3E4E5E6E5E7E7E4E5E6E3E5E4SE10SE8SE8
1 day agoNW14
G20
NW14NW15NW12
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NW9NW7NW7NW12W11W10W10NW7W13W12W13NW6NW11
G15
W10NW8NW8NW11NW10NW8NW12
2 days ago43NW84NW4W3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE8SE5SE4SE4CalmCalmCalmNW8NW13NW16
G20
NW13NW13
G21
NW18
G21

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.