Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Hill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:53AMSunset 7:28PM Monday March 27, 2017 6:36 AM EDT (10:36 UTC) Moonrise 5:53AMMoonset 6:05PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 440 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday morning...
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots. Occasional showers from late evening on. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Occasional rain showers in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming north. Occasional showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LOZ044 Expires:201703270300;;123146 FZUS51 KBUF 262040 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE LOZ044-270300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hill, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 270821
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
421 am edt Mon mar 27 2017

Synopsis
An upper-level disturbance will bring showers this morning. An
approaching cold front will bring another round of showers on
Tuesday. An area of high pressure, over eastern canada, will
build across the region Wednesday and Thursday, to bring drier
weather. Temperatures will become mild both today and Tuesday,
then turn a bit more seasonable Wednesday and Thursday.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
4 am update... Bands of showers will rotate through cny/nepa
this morning, tied to a well defined short-wave crossing the
region. Temperatures are still hovering near 32f at this time
over sullivan county ny, with at least spotty freezing rain
likely occurring. All available near-term temperature guidance
indicates a slow rise over the next few hours across the
catskills, so an expiration time of 8 am for the freezing rain
advisory still seems reasonable.

Regional radar loops still indicate occasional bursts of
moderate to heavy rain with some of the showers, but multi-radar
multi-sensor data, as well as local rain gauge data, show hourly
rainfall rates of 0.1-0.2", at worst. We expect a general
0.25-0.5" of rain across the region this morning.

During the afternoon, sinking motion behind the short-wave will
provide generally rain-free conditions, with just a few spotty
showers possible. As most of the area emerges into the warm
sector this afternoon, temperatures will become quite mild, with
highs ranging from the mid 40s over some of our far eastern
zones, to the mid-upper 50s in most other portions of cny/nepa.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Wednesday/
415 am update... Most of tonight will remain rain-free, with
again some isolated-scattered showers possible, mainly in the
pre-dawn hours. Temperatures will stay mild, with readings
holding up in the 40s-lower 50s.

As the next short-wave comes in Tuesday, it will drive a surface
cold front into ny/pa by late afternoon/early evening. Showers
will become fairly widespread with these features, with a few
thunderstorms not out of the question, especially across nepa.

We're again looking at a 0.25-0.5" of rain on Tuesday for much
of the southern tier and nepa, with lesser amounts to the north.

Any isolated convection could bring localized higher amounts.

Highs Tuesday afternoon will range from the 50s-lower 60s area-
wide.

Tuesday night-Wednesday, drier air will build in behind the
aforementioned cold front, with a surface ridge also nosing
southward out of eastern canada. Temperatures will return to
more seasonable levels on Wednesday, with highs ranging mostly
from the upper 30s-mid 40s.

Long term /Wednesday night through Sunday/
400 am edt update...

no significant changes were made to the previous forecast
discussion. Models are coming to better agreement on the next
storm system that will move into the region early Friday morning.

This system will bring a chance for rain showers through sat
afternoon. The best chance for precip will continues to be
Friday afternoon and evening. For more information please read
the previous forecast discussion below.

Previous forecast discussion...

Wednesday to Thursday high pressure at the surface with a ridge
aloft. Temperatures close to normal with highs in the 40s and
lows in the 20s and 30s.

Friday will be watching a strong storm for rainfall amounts.

Slow moving storm will move northeast from the central plains
into the great lakes Friday. Friday night it moves over our
region and reforms on the coast Saturday. The heaviest rain will
be with and ahead of the low Friday afternoon and night. Cold
air should stay to the north keeping all of the precip rain even
with the upper level trough Saturday. Any snow left will be
melted with warm moist air ahead of this storm.

Sunday will be in transition as flow GOES zonal and another
short wave and weak front approaches late.

Aviation /08z Monday through Friday/
A low pressure system will drift to the north this morning and
bring rain showers again to the region through mid-morning. This
system continues to have copious amounts of low-lvl moisture,
thus ifr & MVFR ceilings continue to prevail across the central
ny and northeast pa. Fuel alternate, ifr and below alternate
minimums are expected to last through at least 18z Monday
until the sfc flow become more sw. Once sfc winds shift to the
sw, flight conditons are expected to quickly improve to MVFR and
possiblyVFR.

A strong low-lvl jet is present over the region this morning,
thus llws will be a threat for all TAF sites through at least
15z mon. Sfc winds tonight will light and variable for kelm, and
avp. All remaining TAF sites will see e/se winds at 8 to 15
knots with occasional gusts up to 20 mph. Sfc winds during the
afternoon will be SE around 6 to 12 knots.

Outlook...

Monday night through Tuesday... Restrictions likely from waves
of rain as frontal boundary waffles over the area.

Wednesday/Thursday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday night/Friday... Restrictions likely in showers.

Hydrology
245 pm edt Sunday update... The rain on snow melt event is
underway, and will continue into the upcoming week as
temperatures in the 50s-60s become more widespread across the
region. This warmth will also be accompanied by an increase in
surface dewpoints into the 40s.

Future rainfall amounts are roughly the same in today's model
runs, with basin averaged QPF up to an inch through Wednesday
morning. This along with the runoff of most of the 1 to 3 inches
of liquid water content across the headwaters of the upper
susquehanna, delaware and the oneida-syracuse river basin will
lead to high flows, and probably minor flooding at several of
the forecast gauge points in the susquehanna and upper delaware
tribs.

Mmefs ensemble spreads are even more aggressive than our latest
operational hydrologic model runs, and show a potential for a
quicker melt on Monday with sharp rises to flood stage at the
headwater points, followed by secondary crests on Tuesday. In
some cases, the mean crests are to the moderate flood stage.

The confidence of a near worst case scenario outcome is quite
low at this time, but it will be important to keep these caveats
in mind as this event unfolds, and be prepared to react to
locally heavier rainfall and/or a rapid melt down of the snow
cover.

With forecast crests still over 48 hours away, there is still
time for further assessment, and no watch will be issued at this
time.

Bgm watches/warnings/advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... Freezing rain advisory until 8 am edt this morning for nyz062.

Synopsis... Mlj
near term... Mlj
short term... Mlj
long term... Kah/tac
aviation... Kah
hydrology...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 72 mi49 min SSE 11 G 16 39°F 1014.4 hPa36°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi37 min S 9.9 G 13 48°F 1013.5 hPa (-1.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi49 min 48°F 1012.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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NE12
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NE5
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SE7
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S15
G22
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G17
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G28
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NE1
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G14
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G16
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NE11
G16

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY5 mi41 minSSE 128.00 miRain38°F37°F97%1016.5 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE10SE9SE15
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1 day agoW4NW5NW6W8NW6NW4NW7NW5NW6NW7N9N4NW7NW4CalmCalmNE3E3CalmSE4E3E3CalmE7
2 days agoS7
G15
S11S11S13S10S8S13S12S11S9
G17
S10S12S10
G18
S11S5SE4SE6NW8NW8W3CalmNW3CalmNW7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.