Saturday, November17, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
South Hill, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:58AMSunset 4:43PM Saturday November 17, 2018 6:19 PM EST (23:19 UTC) Moonrise 2:15PMMoonset 12:44AM Illumination 74% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 631 Am Est Sat Nov 17 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through late tonight...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Rain showers likely through early afternoon, then scattered rain showers late. Waves 5 to 9 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 11 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 5 to 15 knots. Scattered rain and snow showers in the evening, then scattered snow showers overnight. Waves 3 to 6 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of snow showers in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northwest. Snow showers likely during the day, then a chance of snow showers Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet, then subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet. The water temperature off rochester is 45 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201811171600;;438075 FZUS51 KBUF 171132 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 631 AM EST Sat Nov 17 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-171600-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Hill, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 172308
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
608 pm est Sat nov 17 2018

Synopsis
A weak storm system will slide into the mid atlantic on Sunday
and Monday. This storm will bring a few inches of snow to ny and
pa.

Near term through Sunday night
330 pm update...

a southward moving trough will enter ny and bring scattered
light snow showers or flurries to the region tonight. In
addition, a band of light lake effect snow will continue to
affect far northern portions of our forecast area. Light snow
accumulations are forecast. Temperatures will dip into the 20s.

An open wave storm will swing through the mid-atlantic into pa
Sunday and Sunday night. This storm will spread light snow
across the region, mainly from the twin tiers southward.

The models have come in lighter with the qpf. Our updated
forecast calls for 1 to 2 inches of accumulation by Monday
morning.

Temperatures will climb into the lower and middle-30s on Sunday,
then fall to between 25 and 30 degrees Sunday night.

1040 am update...

west winds traveling over the lakes will keep light lake effect
rain and snow showers over portions of our region through today.

For the morning update, we added chance pops for lake effect
showers extending off lake erie toward the southern tier, as
indicated by the current radar depiction.

We also increased temperatures this afternoon as several valley
locations are already near their predicted maximums.

Short term Monday through Tuesday night
315 pm update...

our area will be sandwiched between two weak frontal zones,
with small chances of precipitation at times edging into the
region.

The first boundary, lingering from Sunday-Sunday night, will
drift slightly off to the southeast before stalling as another
weak wave moves along the front. Brief light precipitation may
result mainly for northeast pa to catskills ny. Daytime
temperatures will be warm enough for a mix of rain and snow, or
even just rain in the wyoming valley region during the late
morning and afternoon hours. Little if any snow accumulation
even where that occurs. Expect mainly dry weather for most of
central ny. Highs of mid 30s to lower 40s.

That first boundary will more or less stay in place and lose
definition, with a skiff of light snow possible Tuesday night
for northeast pa to catskills. However, another one will
approach late Monday night into Tuesday as weak low pressure
develops over the eastern great lakes and drifts to new england
as an upper wave swings by our region. Brief lobe of deeper
moisture will accompany the upper wave, which along with lake
enhancement as the low passes and initiates northwest wind
behind the second front, will cause snow showers to develop
especially in central new york. Temperatures will not be very
cold, even aloft, so amounts will be limited to only about an
inch or less. Highs Tuesday will be mainly 30s, followed by lows
of upper teens-low 20s Tuesday night. This is milder than
previously forecast, because flow will immediately
flatten neutralize ahead of an apparent much colder push of air
coming in the long term period.

Long term Wednesday through Saturday
315 pm update...

models started trending colder during runs last night, and have
done so even more with runs today, with better agreement and
higher confidence. Very anomalous lobe of cold air appears
likely to swing out of canada and across the northeast on the
thanksgiving holiday, after a strong arctic front blasts through
on Wednesday with snow showers possible squalls. Model numbers
are near daily record cold maximums Thursday, and close to
record lows for Thursday night as well. Probably some scattered
flurries Thursday as well, though the dendritic growth layer
will basically be on the ground. It will be possible, however,
for finger lakes to initiate thin lake effect bands given the
arctic air and north-northwest flow.

We finally see a warming trend by Friday onward as strong
southwesterly flow occurs. The next weather system approaches
by Saturday bringing chances for rain showers as high
temperatures rise into the 40s.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
A mix of lowVFR and MVFR ceilings will remain over the region
tonight as lake effect snow showers continue to skirt the krme
and ksyr terminals before 06z tonight.

MVFR and fuel alternate required ceilings will develop Sunday
morning as an approaching low pressure system moves through the
mid- atlantic. Light snow will spread into kavp, kbgm, kelm,
and kith between 15z and 18z. Precip should remain mostly snow
in ny... But likely mix with and possibly change to rain at kavp
after 18z. Precipitation should begin to taper off close to 00z.

Outlook...

Sunday night into Monday morning... Low pressure passing to our
south with allow the light snow in central ny to taper off... But
the front will linger across NE pa with the rain changing back
to snow by early Monday morning.

Monday through Tuesday... Improving toVFR on Monday then
restrictions with snow showers Monday night and Tuesday.

Wednesday... GenerallyVFR conditions with scattered light snow
showers north of kith.

Thursday... MainlyVFR conditions.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Djp
near term... Djp
short term... Mdp
long term... Mdp
aviation... Bjt djp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 72 mi38 min WNW 24 G 30 37°F 1023.1 hPa30°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi20 min W 8 G 12 36°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 83 mi38 min 36°F

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY5 mi24 minNW 710.00 miOvercast33°F28°F82%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11W12
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SW7SW8W8W4--W7CalmW6W5W8W8W6W6W9W10W8N3NW11NW6NW7NW10NW7
1 day agoSE8E6E7E7--------------N3CalmSW4S5S43SW5S4SW5SW10W11W12W9
G19
2 days agoCalm3CalmE3----------------SE4E3E4SE9SE8SE9SE10
G18
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.