Thursday, August17, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burdett, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:14AMSunset 8:04PM Thursday August 17, 2017 1:25 PM EDT (17:25 UTC) Moonrise 12:46AMMoonset 3:47PM Illumination 21% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 651 Am Edt Thu Aug 17 2017
Today..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming east. Sunny this morning...then increasing clouds. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers and scattered Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning... Then showers and Thunderstorms likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 71 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201708171530;;516875 FZUS51 KBUF 171051 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 651 AM EDT Thu Aug 17 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ043-044-171530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burdett, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 171052
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
652 am edt Thu aug 17 2017

Synopsis
Valley fog will lift to reveal partly sunny skies this morning,
with increasing clouds during the rest of the day. Muggy
conditions along with showers and scattered thunderstorms
develop tonight, and continue at times through Friday. Locally
heavy rain will be possible in thunderstorms. Cooler, but still
somewhat unsettled weather continues on Saturday.

Near term through tonight
345 am update...

fairly routine mid-august weather today with early morning
valley fog expected to lift during the usual hours. High
pressure then retreats to the east with warm frontal clouds
approaching the rest of the day. Not seeing much lift, or
instability increasing prior to 00z Friday, therefore, we nudged
a blended pop downward a tad early this evening. Model consensus
agrees on sweeping a warm front through the region tonight with
a healthy surge of deep layer moisture. Pwat values get into the
1.5-2.0 inch range by 12z Friday. Strongest forcing sweeps
across southern canada, but frontal boundary and elevated
instability will be enough to produce showers and thunderstorms,
especially overnight. Simulated reflectivity on several of the
high resolution runs did not seem to be as emphatic about
widespread coverage tonight, but did trend at least with an
increase after 04z. Given this, can't really justify several
hours of categorical pops in our area tonight, so have tamed
predictions into the likely range. Although QPF and simulated
radar trends don't jump out with a potential for heavy rainfall,
the anomalous pwats of 2-3 standard deviations along with some
of the other maddox flash flood ingredients do suggest potential
for locally heavy rain in the pattern. The system seems fairly
progressive, but given dewpoints surging above 70f, the risk of
excessive rainfall rates is something to monitor closely.

Blended guidance today and tonight for highs in the upper 70s-
low 80s and overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s.

Short term Friday through Saturday
345 am update...

the passage of the surface warm front early Friday morning will
likely bring a brief respite from the bulk of any widespread
precipitation. Surface based destabilization is expected to
occur Friday afternoon with plenty of moisture still available,
and a shot at breaking out of the cloudiness within the warm
sector. Therefore, another round of convection is expected to
initiate during the afternoon and push east into the evening
hours. The intensity of the convection will depend on how much
clearing occurs. Latest bl CAPE values appear to be considerably
lower than yesterday's model runs with values possibly reaching
about 1000 j kg, maybe a little higher. Deep layer shear still
looks to become sufficient in the 30-40 kt. A drying of the mid
levels is also noted by mid-late afternoon, particularly across
our northern and western areas which would contribute to
steepening low level lapse rates and the potential for strong
updrafts leading to a chance for severe thunderstorms with hail
and strong winds. Deepest moisture may linger across our
southern-eastern areas where flash flooding could occur in the
late afternoon. SREF probabilities in excess of 2 inches 6 hours
were hovering around 10-20 percent from the poconos to
catskills. GEFS gfs moisture parameters look like they slide
east a little faster.

Chances for shower activity diminish Friday night, but can't
rule out all the potential for rain with broad cyclonic flow
aloft and minor ripples noted in the flow. Will pin slightly
better risk of instability clouds and showers during the day
Saturday with heating and a secondary, amplified wave moving
through the area. Subsidence and drying in the low levels will
help to mitigate coverage, but there certainly remains
opportunity for hit and miss activity.

Long term Saturday night through Wednesday
4 am update...

forecast adjusted towards latest multi-model blend, with very
little change to prior thinking. Though flow is generally zonal
Monday-Tuesday, enough ridging and warm air advection occur to
create a rather warm couple of days. Tuesday in particular looks
a bit uncomfortable, considering highs in the mid to upper 80s
at lower elevations combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper
60s. Though above normal, readings like that are not very
unusual for august, but this year we have not had much heat
since the first few days of this month.

Previous discussion...

medium range models are in good agreement through the extended
period. Saturday night through Monday night looks dry and warm
with zonal flow aloft and high pressure in the vicinity.

Tuesday through Wednesday the next upper level trough moves
through the northeast with surface low pressure moving through
eastern canada. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms
will be Tuesday night into Wednesday when the trailing cold
front crosses the region.

Temperatures through the period will run about 4 to 8 degrees
above seasonal normals.

Aviation 12z Thursday through Monday
Vfr conditions generally expected 12z Thursday through 06z
Friday, except for lingering valley fog low ceiling issue at
kelm 12z-13z. Patchy high thin clouds today will become thicker
while lowering this evening as warm front approaches. Showers
will start to spread across the area 06z-12z Friday, with
ceilings eventually lowering into fuel alternate required
levels. Light and variable winds early this morning, will become
generally southeast or south 4-8 knots late morning onward.

Outlook...

Friday through Friday night... Periodic restrictions from
showers thunder as system moves through area.

Saturday through Monday... MainlyVFR, though a few showers and
brief restrictions still possible Saturday.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Jab
near term... Jab
short term... Jab
long term... Mdp rrm
aviation... Mdp


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi38 min SE 8 G 11 76°F 1016.2 hPa47°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi26 min ENE 14 G 16 73°F 1015.9 hPa (-2.0)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi38 min 74°F 1015.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi30 minSSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds77°F60°F56%1016.7 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY19 mi33 minW 310.00 miFair79°F63°F58%1015.5 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi33 minN 010.00 miA Few Clouds78°F60°F54%1015.8 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10NW7NW9NW9NW7N6N4NE3NE4SE3SE3E4E3E4E5E4E4E4E4E4SE4SE6S6S7
1 day agoSW7W44N6W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmNE3CalmNE3E3CalmNW5NW6NW8W9NW10
2 days agoS10S8S7
G14
S11SE9SE7SE7SE7S9S7SE9SE6SE3S6SE6S54S3S5S5SW6W6S6SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.