Saturday, May27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Burdett, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:31AMSunset 8:34PM Saturday May 27, 2017 1:36 PM EDT (17:36 UTC) Moonrise 6:32AMMoonset 9:38PM Illumination 5% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Hamlin Beach To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario Including Irondequoit Bay- 1054 Am Edt Sat May 27 2017
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Mostly cloudy late this morning...then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sunday..Southeast winds 10 knots or less becoming east 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day... Then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Monday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. The water temperature off rochester is 49 degrees.
LOZ044 Expires:201705272115;;289315 FZUS51 KBUF 271454 NSHBUF NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY 1054 AM EDT SAT MAY 27 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. LOZ043-044-272115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Burdett, NY
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location: 42.42, -76.71     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 271502
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
1102 am edt Sat may 27 2017

Synopsis
A system moving by to the south may brush northeast pennsylvania
with a few showers today. Otherwise mostly dry weather is
expected until the next system brings showers and the chance of
thunderstorms late Sunday into Monday. A generally unsettled
pattern will persist through much of next week.

Near term through Sunday
1100 am edt update...

a weak shortwave aloft is sliding across the region this
morning which can be well noted on water vapor satellite this
morning. NW flow is also taking place and advecting dry air at
mid and upper lvls across central ny. The mentioned wave will
quickly swing across the region and anti- cyclonic flow aloft
will shift over the area this evening and the winds within the
lower profile of the atmosphere will become light and variable.

This shortwave aloft is currently over central pa ny and is
generating a few light rain showers over central pa. It appears
that these showers will completely miss our area. Over central
ny, are a few areas of drizzle as a strong subsidence
inversion dominates. While the inversion will hold throughout
the day, the drier air will eventually win and dry our the lower
layers of the atmos enough by early afternoon that the drizzle
will dissipate.

Cloud coverage will slowly break apart late afternoon evening,
thus sfc temps will rise into the uppr 60s to low 70s this
afternoon. Tonight as cloud coverage breaks sfc temps will fall
into the uppr 40s to low 50s. Fog development also looks
promising tonight.

Previous forecast discussion...

300 am edt...

for Saturday night, weak ridging will briefly move over the
area resulting in skies becoming mainly clear with light winds.

This will result in a good chance for some valley fog to develop
by morning as temps cool to dew points. Lows will be
cool... Mostly upper 40s to low 50s.

For Sunday, early morning valley fog quickly burns off with some
sunshine before clouds thicken up ahead of the next system
approaching from the west. Most of the day should be dry but we
do introduce a chance of showers and the risk of thunder to the
western southern tier by late day. The warm advection pattern
developing ahead of this system will result in 850 mb temps
rising to around 12 c which will result in highs generally
reaching the low to mid 70s.

Short term Sunday night through Tuesday
330 am update...

main concern in the short term is focused around the passage of a
cold front and the increased potential for showers and a few
isolated weak storms... Mainly Sunday night and Monday morning. Will
also see a second front move through Tuesday afternoon with more
showers and isolated storms.

Upper level ridging will be shifting to E NE Sunday evening as the
next upper low drops in from central canada across the ERN great
lakes Sunday night and Monday morning. A lead short wave ahead of
the main cutoff low will have a surface front associated with it and
a narrow corridor of deep layer moisture and strong dynamics.

Elevated instability should be sufficient for a few weak storms
through Monday morning. The main threats will be cloud to ground
lightning, brief heavy rain and gusty winds. The heaviest
precip is expected to move in from the west SW around midnight
along the twin tiers and the finger lakes... And track to the
e NE through the morning hours fairly quickly. The deep layer
moisture is expected to move to the east ahead of the front with
a wedge of drier air filtering in on the back side. There will
likely be enough broad large scale lifting going on to keep a
relative abundance of clouds around through the rest of memorial
day, and possibly a few isolated rain showers, but the threat
for continuous rain through the holiday afternoon evening is
fairly low. A few breaks in the clouds cannot be ruled out, but
given the pattern, not very optimistic. Morning rain is expected
to amount to a quarter to half inch at most.

Weak ridging and a drier air mass Monday night Tuesday morning will
likely keep weather conditions quiet. Can't rule out a stray
sprinkle or periods of drizzle though. A secondary front will slide
in from the west late Tuesday morning and increase the potential for
a few rain showers through noon. This front will interact with a
gradually destabilizing boundary layer Tue afternoon... Bl cape
around 200-500 j kg, steep lapse rates... To produce a better chance
of scattered showers and storms. Thunderstorms should remain weak.

May see another tenth to quarter of an inch.

Temperatures will remain steady and nearly seasonal with highs in
the 60s and 70s... And lows in the 50s.

Long term Tuesday night through Friday
330 am update...

the parent upper low across canada will rotate ewd Tuesday night
through Friday and bring a slug of cooler air south across ny and pa
late this week... Along with periods of showers and storms. The upper
low will have a series of embedded waves rotate around it as it
tracks through quebec... Which will likely trigger the showers. The
threat for storms is tough to nail down at this point. If an
embedded wave swings through central ny NE pa during peak heating of
the afternoon, the convective potential will be enhanced with
steeper lapse rates and more instability. The one limiting factor
will be the presence of cooler air within the boundary layer and the
lack of any significant deep layer moisture. So, will continue with
chance pops during the afternoon evening hours Wednesday and
Thursday and lower slight chc pops during the morning and over night
hours.

The upper low begins to lift out of the area Thursday night and
most of the area starts to become under the influence of upper level
ridging and weak warm air advection. Temperatures will slowly warm
back into the lower mid 70s as the work week comes to an end... And
the potential for rain decreases under weak high pressure.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Low stratus persists into this morning with ifr likely until 14z
for kbgm while kith ksyr will continue to fluctuate between
fuel alternate MVFR and ifr until 14z. Conditions are slightly
better at kavp and kelm where fuel alternate MVFR will persist
until mid morning with CIGS lifting beyond this time. All sites
are expected to beVFR by 18z.

Skies clear tonight as a ridge briefly moves in and this will
set up favorable conditions for valley fog at kelm with ifr
likely beginning around 8z. Remaining sites stayVFR.

Surface winds will be light (5 kt or less) throughout the
period.

Outlook...

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday through Wednesday... Restrictions possible from scattered
showers and perhaps thunder.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Pcf
near term... Kah pcf
short term... Bjt
long term... Bjt rrm
aviation... Kah pcf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 73 mi48 min W 7 G 8 58°F 1012.9 hPa53°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 75 mi36 min ENE 4.1 G 6 53°F 1014.6 hPa (+0.7)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 76 mi48 min 53°F 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY13 mi40 minWNW 510.00 miOvercast61°F55°F84%1013.3 hPa
Elmira, Elmira / Corning Regional Airport, NY19 mi43 minNE 710.00 miOvercast62°F53°F73%1012.6 hPa
Penn Yan, Penn Yan Airport, NY24 mi43 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F52°F70%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW10
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NW7W7W9W8NW11NW7NW5NW4CalmNW3W3CalmNW3CalmCalmCalmNW4NW5NW4NW4NW3NW5
1 day agoSE10
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SE6SE7SE5SE4E4CalmE4E7CalmCalmCalmE4CalmCalmW6NW6N7NW8W8W8NW9W9NW13
2 days agoSE9
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E8E11
G15
E7E6E45

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.