Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Harper Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:30AMSunset 7:47PM Friday March 22, 2019 2:50 AM EDT (06:50 UTC) Moonrise 8:54PMMoonset 7:47AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 931 Pm Edt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 am edt Friday through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 20 to 25 knots with gusts to 30 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain and snow. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny becoming partly Sunny in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light rain and snow. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201903220815;;724896 FZUS63 KDTX 220131 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 931 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Elongated low pressure of 29.90 inches will continue to lift from the central Great Lakes to the east coast by tonight. A prolonged period of northwest winds will exist in the wake of this system through Friday. High pressure of 30.40 inches then builds into the Great Lakes over the weekend. LCZ460-220815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Harper Woods, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.42, -82.99     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 220349
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1149 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Aviation
A narrow sfc ridge axis was able to support a fairly aggressive
clearing trend this evening. A deep upper trough now pushing toward
se mi from the north will drive a cold front across SE mi around
06z, leading to a gradual veering of the winds to the northwest.

Post frontal moisture advection and steepening lapse rates will
support scattered to numerous snow showers across SE mi during the
morning. Ceilings and visibilities are likely to show wide
variability through the morning. Strong high pressure will then push
into the area from the northwest Friday afternoon. This and good mid
level subsidence will inhibit much of an afternoon diurnal response.

A strong post frontal northwest gradient, with a deepening mixed
layer due to both cold air advection and diurnal heating will
support gusty winds, likely over 25 knots at times, through the day
Friday.

For dtw... The sfc cold front will pass across metro shortly after
06z. While the better chances for morning snow showers is expected
to hold north of metro, there is at least a good chance for some
brief snow shower activity centered in the 11 to 15z time frame.

There is expected to be enough of a northerly wind component to
limit the potential for crosswind concerns Friday morning within the
gusty post frontal winds.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in ceilings AOB 5000 ft tonight and Friday.

* moderate in precip type being snow tonight and Friday morning.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Friday morning and
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 901 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
update...

a fairly vigorous upper wave is currently pushing south across
northern lower and upper michigan. The lead edge of the strongest pv
advection is triggering a region of radar returns across NE lower mi.

Despite the strong ascent there is a notable lack of deep layer
moisture across NRN lower ATTM per 00z kapx sounding. So there is
likely little reaching the ground from these returns to the north.

The strong ascent will overspread SE mi late this evening and carry
into the overnight, with moisture depth continuing to be a limiting
factor for precipitation. A pool of a little better deep layer
moisture (currently positioned just north and east of the eastern up)
will advect across SE mi late tonight and during the course of
Friday morning, just behind the main mid level height fall center.

This moisture, combined with steep mid level lapse rates will support
scattered to numerous snow showers. The current forecast has this
handled well. So no major forecast adjustments will be made to the
going forecast attm.

Prev discussion...

issued at 357 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
discussion...

low pressure over ohio continues eastward and merges with the much
stronger system on the mid atlantic coast during the late afternoon
and evening. This places SE michigan briefly under the influence of
a mid level ridge and associated subsidence between the atlantic
coast low and the next wave moving across northern ontario and
quebec. Afternoon observations suggest the equally brief surge of
surface high pressure is unable to fully break up the stratocu over
lower michigan as cloud moisture remains trapped under the mid level
inversion. A few pockets of meaningful open sky do remain possible
within the associated anticyclonic low level flow and before clouds
increase again ahead of the next cold front toward midnight.

The low moving through james bay sweeps the cold front southward
into southern lower michigan shortly after midnight. It brings a
very low chance of drizzle or light rain just ahead of and along the
boundary as the low level theta-e ridge builds west to east. Surface
temps that are projected to gradually cool from around 40 maintain a
freezing level high enough for all rain or a rain snow mix until
after midnight. Also, if any prefrontal precip occurs, it will be
close enough to the frontal passage to be swept into chance pops for
the rain snow mix changing to all snow showers later in the night.

The front is on the lead flank of the mid level trough digging
aggressively across the central great lakes which provides a boost
of dynamic support mainly in the colder air behind the front.

Moderate to strong DCVA and exit region jet forcing are shown to
occur with some overlap of deeper moisture and steeper low to mid
level lapse rate. This is expected to produce entry level likely
pops for coverage by sunrise Friday, and while QPF remains low in
model data, leans the forecast toward some potential for higher
achievement in the thumb region until the system exits eastward by
afternoon.

As the moisture pattern exits eastward, deeper and stronger
northerly low level flow becomes more substantial by late morning
through Friday afternoon. Gusts in the 30 mph range are likely
across SE michigan to near 40 mph near lake huron with a long fetch
down the lake and into shoreline areas. The resulting cold advection
limits high temperatures to the 30s near 40 when combined with a
substantial diurnal component of cloud cover. Wind and clouds then
decrease considerably Friday evening as a broad region of high
pressure builds in from the northern plains. This gets the weekend
off to a nice start with light wind and full Sun helping lift
temperatures into the mid 40s.

Cool start to Sunday morning in the 20s will warm up to around 50
degrees by the afternoon as some warmer air is advected into
southeast michigan with the help of an exiting high pressure system
and shortwave ridge. Precipitation chances will increase Sunday
night as a cold front is driven through michigan by troughing across
ontario and quebec. As the front moves southward, there will be a
southern stream wave ejecting out of the central plains which rides
along this front supporting this activity. Daytime temperatures will
allow for precipitation to start as rain with a transition to snow
overnight as temperatures continue to fall behind the front. Some
minor accumulations will be possible if the transition to snowfall
occurs earlier in the night. Cool temperatures and dry weather
settle in to start next week as expansive surface high and upper
ridge builds over the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be nearing
negative 10c on Monday and Tuesday, which will keep high
temperatures mainly in the 30s with low temperatures Monday night
into Tuesday morning in the teens and 20s.

Marine...

light wind today will become strong northwesterly late tonight
through Friday in the wake of a passing cold front. Sustained near-
gales are expected Friday afternoon over the open waters of lake
huron. A gale warning is in effect for gusts to gales for the
balance of the day Friday. Small craft advisories have also been
issued for saginaw bay. Outer bay will gust to near-gales through
much of Friday while the northwest fetch favors elevated waves for
all of Friday and Friday night. Wave action is uncertain in inner
bay where a high percentage of ice cover will likely be lost during
the event. Nonetheless, gusts over ice free waters will easily reach
30 knots.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 8 am to 11 pm edt Friday for lhz362-363-441>443-
462>464.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz422.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 11 am edt Saturday for
lhz421.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sc
update... ... .Sc
discussion... Bt aa
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 7 mi50 min W 8 G 12 37°F 1010.5 hPa (-1.4)
AGCM4 28 mi50 min 37°F 35°F1009.2 hPa (-1.4)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 42 mi50 min WSW 9.9 G 9.9 37°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 49 mi50 min 37°F 1008.5 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last
24hr
S9
G13
S7
G12
S6
G9
S7
S4
SE4
S4
SW3
NW4
NE4
NE6
NE6
E11
NE4
N5
G8
NW6
G10
NW6
G12
NW4
G12
NW4
G7
W5
G9
W6
W5
W5
G9
W5
G8
1 day
ago
SW8
G11
SW7
G11
SW8
G11
SW9
G12
SW8
SW8
G11
SW9
G12
SW11
G16
SW14
G19
S13
G18
SW16
G20
SW12
G18
SW14
G19
SW19
G23
SW15
G23
SW9
G15
S11
G15
S8
G13
S11
G14
S11
G15
S12
G15
S11
G14
S10
G14
S13
G16
2 days
ago
W8
NW9
W8
W7
W8
G11
NW6
G9
W5
W3
G8
NE3
G9
NE8
E8
E12
E12
E7
NE4
SW5
S6
SW7
G10
S5
G8
SW8
G11
SW7
SW9

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI2 mi57 minW 710.00 miOvercast37°F28°F73%1010.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI13 mi55 minSW 310.00 miMostly Cloudy36°F29°F76%1010.5 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI16 mi1.9 hrsW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F34°F88%1010.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI22 mi57 minSW 78.00 miMostly Cloudy35°F27°F72%1011 hPa
Detroit/Grosse Ile, Grosse Ile Airport, MI24 mi55 minW 410.00 miPartly Cloudy36°F30°F80%1010.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
Last 24hrS6S6S4CalmCalmCalmNW3N3NW6N6NW6W5NW4W5W10NW7NW7W6W5W4W4W8W7W7
1 day agoSW4S5S4S3S6S5S5S8S11SW12
G20
S12
G19
S8SW17
G23
S6SE7S9S7S7S10S8S11S11S7S7
2 days agoW4W5W4W4CalmCalmCalmW3W45W5W6W10
G16
W10S9S9S9SW9SW6S5SW6SW6SW5Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.