Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Pinckney, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 8:00PM Thursday March 30, 2017 6:44 AM EDT (10:44 UTC) Moonrise 8:11AMMoonset 10:12PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0004.000000t0000z-170301t0900z/ 349 Am Est Wed Mar 1 2017
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie... The Thunderstorms have moved out of the area and no longer pose a significant threat to boaters. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 am est for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4172 8346 4173 8345 4173 8350 4180 8350 4195 8337 4196 8328 4201 8325 4204 8315 4200 8313 4190 8325 4189 8331 4182 8337 4172 8341 time...mot...loc 0846z 274deg 49kt 4211 8288 4163 8356
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201703010858;;822801 FZUS73 KDTX 010849 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 349 AM EST WED MAR 1 2017 LCZ423-LEZ444-010858-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Pinckney, MI
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location: 42.42, -83.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 300747
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
347 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Discussion
The storm system that will bring us wet weather the better part of
the next two days is still centered over missouri early this
morning. The longwave trough is quite deep, reaching down into the
gulf of mexico and the strong southerly flow in advance of it is
proving quite efficient with moisture transport as leading showers
associated with the warm front draped across the ohio valley.

Showers this morning are being generated by broad isentropic ascent
along the warm frontal slope. There has been a few enhanced bands
through the early morning hours, but a deep low level dry layer of
around 7kft is eating away at most precip before it can reach the
ground. All models agree, and have agreed for a few days now, that
widespread showers will affect the region Thursday and Friday as the
low slides east just south of the mi border. I will be hitting on a
few potential issues with the system vs regurgitating high pop/high
qpf forecasts once again.

Initial concern remains the snow potential across our northern
counties. This is not a slam dunk forecast by any means and
confidence is actually decreasing with this package, but potential
still exists. Model soundings start off cold (but with no moisture)
and quickly trend to a deep isothermal layer hovering right around
0c. Surface dewpoints remain in the upper 20s north of i69 whereas
temperatures look to be stuck in the mid 30s. So wet bulbing could
swing the isothermal profile to the snow production side.

Additionally, the earlier model runs were hinting at a narrow fgen
band lighting up over the area, but so far the initial band lit up
further south and a second band looks to be converging over northern
lower. Regardless, setup still suggest snow is possible before
turning to all rain and will stick with a forecast of "up to an
inch" of wet snow possible before the changeover.

Next issue will be potential for thunder. As the warm front draws
nearer this afternoon, some elevated instability and marginally
favorable mid level lapse rates will lift along the front possibly
resulting in a few thunderstorms. With the low tracking along the
warm front tonight just south of the area, will keep a mention of
thunder going til the low gets east of the area.

Deep plume of moisture and the 850mb jet will be pushed east of the
area by Friday but the upper low and trailing deformation region of
the surface low will remain over SE mi through much of Friday. The
low remains cutoff from the main flow thus slowly drudges east. How
fast the trailing showers will end will depend on how fast the
surface high in its wake can build into the area. In addition, mid
level ridge will begin building into the great lakes Saturday
morning.

The weekend will shape up to be fairly nice (dry) with temperatures
climbing each day from 50 Saturday to mid 50s Sunday. Active pattern
will continue into the new week though with a system sliding through
every couple days. Next system looks to slide through Sunday night
and Monday with another coming around Thursday.

Marine
There will be a steady increase in easterly winds today into
tonight. This will be the result of the increase in gradient due to
the approach of sfc low pressure into the ohio valley with
persistent strong high pressure anchored over quebec. Lingering
shallow cold air will also support neutral to slightly unstable
conditions across lake huron. This easterly wind direction will
support hazardous conditions to small craft today through the day
Friday. The strongest winds will occur tonight across central and
northern lake huron. There remains high probability that wind gusts
will reach 30 knots, with a chance for a brief period of gale force
wind gusts (duration of which should remain less than three hours).

The winds will back toward the northeast tonight into Friday morning
before weakening later in the day Friday as the sfc low exits the
region to the east and weakens.

Hydrology
Low pressure over the mid mississippi valley today will transport
abundant moisture into a slow moving frontal boundary across
southern and central lower michigan. This will result in multiple
intervals of showers with a few thunderstorms also possible.

Portions of central lower mi and the thumb region will see snow
during the first half of the day before temperatures warm. The low
will drift across the northern ohio valley tonight before exiting
the region to the east late in the day Friday. This will sustain
intervals of showers into Fri evening.

Some of the precipitation will be moderate to heavy at times. Total
two day liquid rain totals are now expected to range from eight
tenths of an inch up to an inch and a half. This will certainly lead
to rises on area rivers. There is a potential for locally higher
amounts, especially within any thunderstorms. The slow moving nature
of the forcing on Friday also raises some concerns for some locally
higher totals. These factors do suggest a potential for some minor
flooding.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1152 pm edt Wed mar 29 2017
aviation...

mid level fgen banding will bring brief period of -ra/virga early in
the forecast with CIGS to lowerVFR, but expect widespread cig and
vsby restrictions in rain/br (some snow kmbs?) to hold off until 12z
or so. As low level moisture continues to funnel northeast into the
area, expect CIGS to lower to ifr and eventually lifr at times by
late today as warm front stalls near michigan/ohio state line and
low pressure encroaches from the southwest and provides additional
lift (and moisture) for the area.

For dtw...VFR conditions should basically hold through the night
with a transition to MVFR early Thursday morning and most likely ifr
by afternoon/evening. East/northeast flow will persist and gust into
the 20 to 25 knot range during the day Thursday.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* low for ceilings at or below 5000 feet through 11z, medium 11z-
14z, high beyond 14z Thursday.

* high in precipitation falling as rain, but low that thunderstorm
will impact terminal Thursday.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory from 5 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt Saturday
for lhz421-422-441>443.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 am this morning to 10 pm edt this
evening for lez444.

Discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Sc
hydrology... .Sc
aviation... ..Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 54 mi45 min E 17 G 20 41°F 1018.6 hPa (-3.1)
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 55 mi45 min E 18 G 26 42°F 1015.6 hPa (-4.1)34°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Howell, Livingston County Airport, MI15 mi51 minE 12 G 2110.00 miOvercast40°F32°F74%1016.6 hPa
Ann Arbor, Ann Arbor Municipal Airport, MI16 mi52 minNE 13 G 2010.00 miOvercast41°F33°F73%1016.6 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI23 mi52 minE 1510.00 miOvercast43°F33°F68%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from OZW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmN4N3NE4NE5E3NE5N6E7NE6N8N7N3NE9
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G18
1 day agoNE5N3N3N6N4N6NE5N7N6NE6N5N8
G14
NE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoSW4W6W6W11
G16
W9W8W7W8W7W7W9W6NW5NW3N5N4N3CalmN3N3N6N4N5N6

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.