Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gold Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:52PM Thursday November 15, 2018 2:44 AM PST (10:44 UTC) Moonrise 1:33PMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 49% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 232 Am Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning...
Today..N wind 5 to 15 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...veering to ne early in the morning, then...backing to nw in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft... Building to 3 to 6 ft in the afternoon. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 13 seconds...building to 8 to 9 ft at 15 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tonight..N wind 5 to 15 kt...veering to ne 5 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, sw wind 5 kt...backing to S in the late evening and early morning, then...veering to sw early in the morning. Wind waves 3 to 6 ft. W swell 8 to 9 ft at 14 seconds.
Fri..Northern portion, N wind 15 to 20 kt...rising to 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, W wind 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. W swell 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds.
Fri night..Northern portion, N wind 20 to 25 kt... Easing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Brookings southward, S wind 5 kt. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat..Northern portion, N wind 10 to 15 kt...veering to ne 5 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, se wind 5 kt in the morning...becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
Sat night..W wind 5 kt...backing to se after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 6 ft.
Sun..E wind 5 kt...veering to se in the afternoon, then... Becoming variable less than 5 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft.
Mon..NE wind 5 kt in the morning...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming N 5 kt in the evening...veering to s. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 5 ft.
PZZ300 232 Am Pst Thu Nov 15 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters.. A heavy northwest swell train will continue to impact the area, and north winds will increase throughout the day, producing steep waves on top of the swell. Small craft advisory conditions will persist through early Friday morning, then northwest swell will start diminishing. However, a thermal trough along the coast will strengthen and maintain seas that are hazardous to small craft Friday into Saturday, at least in the southern waters up to cape blanco. Winds and seas will diminish late Saturday into Sunday. Winds will become southerly and expect relatively benign seas early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gold Beach, OR
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location: 42.43, -124.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 150442
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
842 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018

Discussion No updates needed this evening. A front continues to
dissipate along the coos coast this evening. Despite guidance
indicating the potential for light rain over the far north coast
this evening, observations and webcams show nothing, and thus dry
weather is the expectation tonight. We are seeing a fair amount of
cloud, so that will help hold temperatures up compared to recent
nights. Tomorrow an upper ridge will begins building over the
pacnw, and this will lead to sunnier and slightly warmer weather
for much of our area. This also leads to the development of a
thermal trough at the coast and the gusty offshore (northeast)
winds that often accompany them starting Friday and continuing
into the weekend. This combined with a drying airmass and
continued unseasonably dry fuels will create elevated fire
conditions that are rather unusual for november. Long nights and
good humidity recoveries in the valleys help to mitigate this
somewhat, but the mountains will remain dry and breezy at times.

Please remember this if you plan to venture into the mountains any
time through this weekend. -wright

Marine Updated 800 pm pst Wednesday 14 november 2018... North
winds will increase through tonight and into Thursday, producing
increasing wind driven seas. Meanwhile, northwest swell will build
through Thursday morning. The combination of these two wave groups
will generate chaotic seas hazardous to small craft. The main area
of concern will be 10 to 30 nm away from shore south of gold beach.

This area will have the strongest winds. However, since the swell
is the dominant wave in this scenario, we decided to stay away
from a hazardous seas warning for the area mentioned above.

A low to moderate west swell will remain the forecast through next
week. North winds will weaken by Sunday, then shift to the south
and increase into the middle of next week.

-smith bpn

Prev discussion issued 351 pm pst Wed nov 14 2018
short term... A weak front is moving into the coast and will
weaken and dissipate early this evening. Some light rain has
fallen at the coast near coos bay and northward. Otherwise dry
conditions have continued across the area today with an upper
ridge in place. Some haze and smoke from fires to the south has
lingered over the area today and is expected to shift southeast
tonight. Smoke is mainly aloft and is patchy.

Models remain in good agreement showing the high pressure ridge
strengthening Thursday into Friday with a surface thermal trough
developing along the coast. This will bring a stable, dry air
mass to the region. Expect gusty north winds over the coastal
waters Thursday afternoon and evening with breezy north to
northeast winds inland along the coast. Offshore northeast to east
winds will bring breezy winds to the coastal mountains Thursday
night into Friday morning.

Friday night into Saturday, the ridge and thermal trough will
build northward. Expect continued east winds over the mountains
with winds increasing in the southern oregon cascades Friday
night into Saturday. Saturday, an upper level shortwave will move
down the east side of the ridge. This disturbance is expected to
remain east of the area and expect little impact. East side
locations may see temperatures lower some late Saturday into
Sunday.

Long term... Monday through Wednesday... Models show more
variability in how strong the upper ridge will be early next week
and when it may weaken or break down. The ensemble mean GEFS and
gfs forecasts are stronger with the ridge and slower to break down
the ridge compared to the ecwmf. The GEFS and GFS would favor
continued dry conditions through Tuesday, followed by an upper
trough moving into the region around Wednesday of next week.

However the GFS has trended weaker and drier with this system next
week. In contrast, the ECMWF is quicker to break down the ridge
and continues to show a front and upper trough bringing
precipitation into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. Overall,
expect a chance for precipitation by Wednesday but confidence is
low on the details of the strength and timing of this system. So
will monitor this portion of the forecast with future model runs.

Aviation... For the 15 00z tafs... A dissipating front will bring
some MVFR ceilings to the coast and the umpqua valley this evening.

Vfr will prevail elsewhere. Smoke from wildfires in california will
maintain a haze across the area, but it should not be thick enough
to restrict visibility.

Overnight into Thursday morning, low-level moisture along the coast
and into the umpqua valley will lead to areas of ifr low clouds and
fog, butVFR will return in the afternoon.VFR will persist
elsewhere. -spilde

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters... Small craft advisory from 10 am Thursday to 10 am pst Saturday
for pzz356-376.

Small craft advisory for hazardous seas from 10 am Thursday to 4
am pst Friday for pzz350-356-370-376.

Small craft advisory from 10 am Thursday to 4 am pst Friday for
pzz350.



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 22 mi56 min NW 8.9 G 11 56°F 50°F1025.1 hPa
46015 - Port Orford - 16 NM West of Port Orford, OR 33 mi34 min N 18 G 21 54°F1026.2 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 40 mi34 min NE 1.9 G 3.9 49°F 51°F1025.1 hPa48°F
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 49 mi44 min NNE 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 51°F1024.3 hPa (-1.1)

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR25 mi49 minN 010.00 miFair47°F37°F71%1026.3 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W4W643SE3CalmE3NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalm
1 day agoE5CalmSE5CalmE3CalmCalmE43CalmSE4SE6S4CalmCalmS644E3E3E3E4E4--
2 days ago53CalmSE6SE7SE6S8SE7SE6S65S4S4SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 06:11 AM PST     5.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:08 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:55 AM PST     3.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:32 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:55 PM PST     4.95 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.21.82.73.64.55.15.45.34.94.43.93.53.43.644.44.854.84.33.62.721.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Oregon (2)
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Port Orford
Click for Map
Thu -- 06:15 AM PST     6.02 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:54 AM PST     First Quarter
Thu -- 07:09 AM PST     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:51 AM PST     4.09 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:33 PM PST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:54 PM PST     Sunset
Thu -- 04:59 PM PST     5.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 11:55 PM PST     1.47 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.42.134.155.765.95.654.54.24.14.34.655.45.55.34.843.12.31.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_P
GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.