Thursday, May24, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Gold Beach, OR

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 24, 2018 2:36 PM PDT (21:36 UTC) Moonrise 2:46PMMoonset 2:34AM Illumination 75% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ356 Coastal Waters From Cape Blanco Or To Pt. St. George Ca Out 10 Nm- 848 Am Pdt Thu May 24 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from late tonight through Friday evening...
Today..Northern portion, N wind 5 to 10 kt...backing to nw 15 kt in the afternoon. Brookings southward, W wind 5 kt... Backing to sw late afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 6 ft at 11 seconds. Areas of fog in the morning. Patchy drizzle in the morning.
Tonight..W wind 5 to 10 kt...veering to nw after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, sw wind 5 kt early in the evening...becoming variable less than 5 kt, then...becoming W 5 kt after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Isolated showers.
Fri..NW wind 10 to 15 kt...rising to 20 kt late in the afternoon. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, wind variable less than 5 kt...becoming nw 5 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds and sw 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds. Scattered showers.
Fri night..NW wind 20 to 25 kt...becoming N 15 kt after midnight. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, nw wind 15 to 20 kt...easing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 4 to 6 ft...subsiding to 3 to 4 ft after midnight. Mixed swell W 4 ft and sw 2 ft. Isolated showers.
Sat..NW wind 10 to 20 kt. Within 5 nm of brookings southward, N wind 5 kt...becoming nw 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 4 ft.
Sat night..N wind 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 5 ft. Mixed swell W 3 ft and S 1 to 2 ft.
Sun..N wind 15 to 20 kt...backing to nw 25 kt in the evening, then...becoming N after midnight. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft...building to 8 ft in the evening, then...subsiding to 5 ft after midnight. W swell 3 ft... Building to nw 5 ft and sw 1 ft.
Mon..N wind 20 kt...rising to 25 kt. Wind waves 5 ft...building to 6 to 8 ft. NW swell 5 ft.
PZZ300 848 Am Pdt Thu May 24 2018
Synopsis for the southern oregon coastal waters..Light northerly winds with northwest swell are expected today. North winds will strengthen tonight into Friday resulting in areas of gusty north winds and steep wind-driven seas south of cape blanco. Winds and seas lower briefly Friday night. A thermal trough develops along the coast this weekend and north winds will gradually increase becoming strong by Sunday. Gusty north winds and steep seas will impact areas south of cape blanco this weekend. Winds increase further late Sunday into early next week with strong gusty winds and steep to very steep seas possible across the waters.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Gold Beach, OR
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location: 42.43, -124.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Medford, OR
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Fxus66 kmfr 241653
afdmfr
area forecast discussion
national weather service medford or
953 am pdt Thu may 24 2018

Update
The forecast for today through early Friday morning has been
updated to reflect the latest observational trends and trends in
the numerical model guidance.

Discussion
Extensive stable cloud cover at most non-mountainous locations
west of the cascades this morning is receding under a general
southeast flow. Low cloud cover in some valleys east of the
cascades, along with the west side cloud cover, is a sign of
significant low level moisture available for convection again
today. The medford morning sounding indicates precipitable water
values of 1.07", which is well above the 90th percentile of 0.86"
for this time of the year. Thus, a primary concern for today is,
again, significant rainfall and related localized minor flooding,
especially with any slower moving thunderstorms and training
thunderstorm activity. Generally, a southeast flow of 10-20 knots
should keep storms moving along at a decent clip today, precluding
flooding.

The storm prediction center is indicating a slight risk for
severe thunderstorms with hail and gusty winds this afternoon into
this evening across far eastern modoc and southeastern modoc
county.

The greatest concern is this evening through tonight when an
organized area of convection associated with a shortwave trough
moves northwestward from modoc county, and across the east side.

Soaking rains with embedded isolated to scattered thunderstorms
are expected to drop a quarter of an inch to as much as an inch of
rain across much of the east side. Localized amounts up to 2
inches will be possible, which would get smaller waterways flowing
substantially.

We then expect significant wetting rainfall from the interior
west side eastward Friday afternoon and evening, on the order of
a quarter of an inch or more, generally from grant pass and
tiller eastward. Btl

Aviation 24 12z... The marine layer has deepened, and conditions
at the coast and the western half of the umpqua basin are generally
MVFR and should stay MVFR through Thursday morning. Gradual
improvement after around 16z should allow some coastal areas to
briefly break out toVFR in the afternoon.

Farther inland, generally east of the line from the illinois valley
to roseburg, showers will gradually diminish overnight into Thursday
morning. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the same region on
Thursday afternoon and evening. -schaaf dw

Marine Updated 910 am pdt Thursday 24 may 2018... Light northerly
winds today will increase tonight and Friday. Small craft advisory
level winds and steep seas are expected beginning tonight and
continuing on Friday for areas south of CAPE blanco. Winds will
weaken Friday night then increase late Saturday into Sunday as a
thermal trough develops along the coast. North winds will strengthen
further Sunday evening into early next week with small craft
advisory conditions expected over most the waters and gales and very
steep wind-driven seas possible for areas south of CAPE blanco.

-cc sven

Prev discussion issued 301 am pdt Thu may 24 2018
discussion... Current observations are showing a few showers in
the foothills of eastern douglas county and maybe a stray shower
along highway 140 on the crest of the cascades. These showers are
expected to linger for a couple more hours before a brief lull can
occur later this morning. This activity is due in part to a low
pressure system moving inland off the coast of san francisco.

As a result, high resolution models are showing an uptick in the
activity beginning on the east side again as early as 11:00 am,
and that's where most of the activity will begin tomorrow morning.

Today will be quite similar to yesterday, with isolated to
scattered thunderstorms over most of the area, with the highest
concentration occurring over the terrain. An isolated thunderstorm
could be possible west of the cascades, but will generally east of
grants pass. Thunderstorms today are not expected to become
severe, but could create occasional to frequent lightning strikes
and gusty winds up to 40 mph.

The showers will continue overnight with the thunderstorm threat
largely dissipating after sunset. A stray lightning strike will be
possible along the cascades and east. For Friday, CAPE values and
lifted indices seem a little weaker than for today, and will
concentrate the thunderstorm potential over the cascades,
siskiyous and to the east and south. That being said, Friday
appears to be trending wetter than yesterday or today. Once the
thunderstorm threat largely ends after sunset on Saturday, showers
will gradually decrease from west to east as the low moves
eastward into nevada.

A ridge will build in behind the system over the weekend, and
skies are generally expected to clear with the exception of the
marine layer over the coast and spilling into the umpqua basin.

Temperatures will be cooler on Friday and Saturday before
rebounding on Sunday and Monday.

This pattern is expected to continue for most of the week, but
another trough will likely begin to dig in from the north. With
moisture pooling over northern california, this system will likely
be mostly dry for oregon, but bring another round of shower and
thunderstorm chances for northern california in the extended
forecast. -schaaf

Mfr watches warnings advisories
Or... None.

Ca... None.

Pacific coastal waters...

- small craft advisory from 2 am to 11 pm pdt Friday for pzz356-376.

Btl sbn mnf


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PORO3 - 9431647 - Port Orford, OR 22 mi67 min NW 11 G 15 61°F 51°F1017.4 hPa
46027 - ST GEORGES - 8NM West Northwest of Crescent City, CA 40 mi107 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 53°F 52°F5 ft1017.9 hPa (+1.2)
CECC1 - 9419750 - Crescent City, CA 49 mi67 min SSW 2.9 G 5.1 55°F 55°F1018.3 hPa

Wind History for Port Orford, OR
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brookings, Brookings Airport, OR25 mi41 minWSW 410.00 miFair61°F52°F72%1020 hPa

Wind History from BOK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr444SW3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW4S4CalmSW5S5SW4
1 day ago6SW6CalmS4SE43CalmS4E4SE4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmNW3Calm3CalmS4CalmW6W6
2 days agoSE6SE8SE8SE9S6SE6SE7CalmCalmW3CalmCalmSE3E3CalmCalmCalmN3CalmSW4S3S43S7

Tide / Current Tables for Wedderburn, Rogue River, Oregon
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Wedderburn
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Thu -- 02:57 AM PDT     1.30 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:33 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:36 AM PDT     4.86 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:48 PM PDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:45 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:41 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:16 PM PDT     6.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.32.31.51.31.62.33.34.24.84.84.43.52.51.50.80.6123.34.75.76.36.15.4

Tide / Current Tables for Port Orford, Pacific Ocean, Oregon
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Port Orford
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Thu -- 02:54 AM PDT     1.66 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:34 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:47 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 08:37 AM PDT     5.39 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:43 PM PDT     0.79 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:46 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 08:42 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:20 PM PDT     7.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
3.82.71.91.722.83.84.75.35.34.93.92.81.710.81.32.43.85.36.476.96.1

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of PacificNorthwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Medford, OR (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Medford, OR
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.