Sunday, June25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Fredonia, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:41AMSunset 8:58PM Sunday June 25, 2017 11:33 PM EDT (03:33 UTC) Moonrise 6:30AMMoonset 9:24PM Illumination 4% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 2 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1006 Pm Edt Sun Jun 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Rest of tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Monday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 7 feet.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning... Then a chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tuesday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. A chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Thursday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:201706260915;;825228 FZUS51 KBUF 260206 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1006 PM EDT Sun Jun 25 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-260915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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location: 42.43, -79.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 260215
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1015 pm edt Sun jun 25 2017

Synopsis
Temperatures will continue to run cooler than average through
Tuesday, as an upper level trough moves across the region. The
cooler temperatures will be accompanied by showers at times, as a
series of upper level disturbances cross the area. The trough will
move east by Wednesday, with warmer temperatures expected by mid-
week.

Near term through Monday
Broad mid-level longwave trough remains across the great lakes and
into the northeast conus. Water vapor imagery showing an embedded
robust vorticity MAX moving into southern quebec with a spoke
dropping southward across central nys co-located with a surface
cold front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with
this feature will quickly move through central ny with a short
break for much of wny.

Later this evening, additional showers are expected with
continued cold air advection and additional upstream short wave
troughs poised to move in overnight.

Behind the front, a chilly airmass will spread into the region
and will be cool enough to bring a potenial for some lake
effect enhancement east of the lakes. 850 mb temperatures
dropping to around +6c with lake temperatures of +22c on lake
erie and +19c on lake ontario will bring steep low level lapse
rates. This will support the development of scattered lake
effect showers through the overnight. Shear profiles do not look
ideal for well organized bands. An overall 260-270 degree flow
will direct the highest probabilities for showers across the
western southern tier southern erie county off lake erie and
oswego county into southern lewis off lake ontario. Lake induced
equilibrium levels of 20kft+ yields a chance of thunder along
with graupel possible if some degree of organized bands can
develop. Overnight lows will again dip into the low-mid 50s and
even upper 40s in the cooler interior western southern tier and
tug hill.

Monday, anomalously cold upper level trough will continue to cross
the great lakes. Another short wave looks to rotate through the base
of the trough improving overall dynamics. This feature along with
the combination of above-average lake temperatures, and 850 mb
temperatures nearing +4c are almost certain to generate a robust lake
response, creating the potential for bands of rains downwind of the
lakes. Cool air aloft, clouds and rain will keep most temperatures
in the 60s.

Short term Monday night through Wednesday night
Monday night and Tuesday the heart of a much cooler than normal
airmass will cross the area as a potent mid level shortwave moves
through the mean longwave trough over the great lakes and new
england. Dpva associated with the sharp mid level vorticity maxima
will produce a few scattered showers across the region. The main
concern will be lake effect rain potential, a rarity for late june.

850mb temps will bottom out around +4c Tuesday morning. With the
lake at around 21c on average that yields more than enough lake
induced instability to support lake effect rain. These temperatures
will generate around 1800j kg of lake induced CAPE and equilibrium
levels around 30k feet.

Off lake erie... Expect lake effect rain showers to slowly become
better organized during the late evening and early overnight Monday
night, with lingering diurnal mixing initially hurting the chances
of organized development. By late Monday night and early Tuesday
morning expect a broken line of nearly steady state convection to
focus on the buffalo southtowns on wsw flow, and likely hugging the
shoreline of southern erie county and possibly into the dunkirk
area. Given the strong instability, expect scattered thunderstorms
to be supported within this band of lake effect rain, and locally
heavy rainfall. If the band stays stationary long enough, rainfall
amounts could easily exceed 1 inch. Tuesday morning boundary layer
flow will become more westerly following the passage of the mid
level trough, forcing the lake effect rain inland across the western
southern tier where it will transition to diurnally driven scattered
showers by early afternoon.

Off lake ontario... The airmass is not quite as cold or supportive of
lake effect rain at the east end of lake ontario, and the lake
itself is not as warm yet. This will yield less of a lake response
compared to lake erie. Expect scattered lake effect rain showers
across jefferson county later Monday night, likely peaking Tuesday
morning with an added boost of lift from the passing mid level
shortwave. By Tuesday afternoon most of the showers will move inland
and transition to diurnally driven showers
precipitation chances will increase markedly Thursday, as isentropic
uplift increases ahead of a surface low tracking across the great
lakes. Current guidance suggest another widespread soaking for the
forecast area on Thursday, as this area of widespread synoptic lift
crosses the region ahead of the surface low, which is currently
progged to track rapidly north of lake ontario en route to new
england by Friday morning. Yet another system follows rapidly in the
steps of this system, keeping rain in the forecast Friday into
Saturday, as the longwave troughing across the region maintains its
grip. Temperatures during the latter half of next week will at least
run near to slightly above normal, thanks to the position of the
forecast area ahead of the longwave trough axis, with highs
generally in the mid to upper 70s, and lows in the 60s., most numerous across the
higher terrain of the tug hill and western adirondacks.

Otherwise Tuesday afternoon scattered showers will continue, driven
by some limited moisture and steep low mid level lapse rates beneath
the cold air aloft. These will gradually end Tuesday evening with
the loss of daytime heating, with the possible exception of the
eastern lake ontario region where some weak lake induced instability
and more synoptic scale moisture may still support a few showers.

By Wednesday the base of the mid level trough will swing northeast
across quebec. This will leave the bulk of the area in a drier, and
somewhat warmer airmass as high pressure builds from the ohio valley
to the mid atlantic states. This will bring a return to dry weather
for most, with diurnal cumulus still developing with daytime heating
inland from the lakes. There may still be a few scattered showers
east of lake ontario in closer proximity to the departing mid level
trough.

Wednesday evening any lingering scattered showers east of lake
ontario will end as the trough moves farther away. Overnight clouds
will increase from west to east as fairly strong warm advection and
isentropic upglide develop ahead of low pressure moving through the
upper midwest. This may produce a few showers towards Thursday
morning across western ny.

Temperature-wise, Tuesday will be well below normal with highs only
in the upper 60s on the lake plains and lower 60s on the hills,
about 10 degrees below normal. Lows Monday night and Tuesday night
will be in the mid 50s on the lake plains, with some upper 40s in
the cooler interior southern tier valleys and lewis county.

Temperatures will begin to warm back closer to average by Wednesday,
with low to mid 70s across western ny and upper 60s to lower 70s
east of lake ontario.

Long term Thursday through Sunday
This will be a very unsettled period across our forecast area... As
we can anticipate numerous showers and thunderstorms... Including the
likelihood for some localized heavy rain. Temperatures will average
a little above normal... Largely due to warm nights... While humidity
levels will climb to uncomfortable levels.

The unsettled conditions will be supported by an oscillating frontal
boundary that will straddle the lower great lakes. Two distinct
surface waves will eject out of a broad... Low amplitude trough over
the center of the country during this time period... With each
pushing the boundary back and forth across our region to
force enhance the convection. The most widespread shower and
thunderstorm activity will be on Thursday in advance of the first
wave... Then Friday night and Saturday as the second feature passes.

Max temperatures all four of these days will generally range from
the upper 70s to lower 80s... While overnight lows will mainly be in
the mid 60s.

Aviation 02z Monday through Friday
Most areas should remainVFR tonight with only isolated showers.

The exception may be toward kjhw where some lake effect showers
will likely develop toward morning before moving inland as a
lake effect modifies to a lake breeze. Associated convection
should move inland during the day as a result. Some MVFR will be
possible with those showers (and thunderstorms).

Outlook...

Tuesday... MainlyVFR with scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms... Mainly in the afternoons.

Wednesday... MainlyVFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

Marine
Although winds may drop off a little overnight, expect winds to
quickly pick up again on Monday with renewed west to southwest
winds near 20 knots, lasting through Monday evening. Waves will
generally range from 3 to 6 feet on the eastern end of lake
erie, sufficient for small craft advisory conditions through
Monday evening. Smaller waves are expected on lake ontario.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Monday for lez020-040-041.

Synopsis... Tma
near term... Tma zaff
short term... Hitchcock
long term... Rsh
aviation... Tma zaff
marine... Tma zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi33 min W 11 G 14 66°F 1016.5 hPa (+1.8)
45142 - Port Colborne 22 mi93 min W 18 G 21 66°F 67°F5 ft1015.5 hPa (+1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi45 min 66°F 1015.8 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi45 min W 8.9 G 11 65°F 1015.4 hPa55°F
EREP1 44 mi45 min W 8 G 12
45167 45 mi54 min W 14 G 16 67°F 72°F3 ft
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi45 min 65°F 1016 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY6 mi41 minWSW 510.00 miOvercast64°F53°F68%1016.4 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5S6SW6SW6SW6SW5SW6SW5SW6SW8SW13
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1 day agoW7W8W8W6W7W5SW5SW5SW7SW11
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2 days agoS17
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S13S13S10S9S6SW7S9SW9S11S10SW10SW9S9S11SW6SW9SW10
G19
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G22
SW11
G20
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W8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.