Fredonia, NY Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Fredonia, NY

May 18, 2024 11:26 AM EDT (15:26 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 5:50 AM   Sunset 8:35 PM
Moonrise 2:52 PM   Moonset 2:35 AM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

Marine Forecasts
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LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 436 Am Edt Sat May 18 2024

Today - Light and variable winds. Areas of fog this morning. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tonight - Northwest winds less than 10 knots. Patchy fog overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday - Light and variable winds. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 foot or less.

Sunday night - West winds less than 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.

Monday - South winds 10 knots or less. Becoming mainly clear. Waves 1 foot or less.

Tuesday - South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers Tuesday night. Waves 2 feet or less.

Wednesday - South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.

LEZ005
No data


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Fredonia, NY
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Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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FXUS61 KBUF 181502 AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1102 AM EDT Sat May 18 2024

SYNOPSIS
A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm will continue to be possible today. Dry weather returns areawide tonight which lasts through Tuesday. It will also become unseasonably warm with temperatures climbing well above normal. Unsettle weather returns by mid-week and turning progressively cooler.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
Low clouds and some lingering pockets of fog (mainly along the Lake Erie shoreline and out into the lake) will gradually improve through this afternoon. This will allow for limited instability to build with advertised 300-700 J/kg. With lingering moisture and effects from a trough we could see a few showers or even a thunderstorm develop this afternoon. The best chance to see a shower or storm will be found across Western NY (Southern Tier)
into the Finger Lakes, and along any subtle boundary. Highs this afternoon will be found in the 70s for most locales.

Tonight...any lingering showers will quickly diminish with the loss of daytime heating
After that
generally quite and dry weather will take hold
That said
with lingering low-level moisture due to the recent rains some fog formation will be possible overnight.

Otherwise...a pleasant night is expected with lows found in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
Mainly dry weather expected this period as mid and upper level ridge builds overhead, while elongated surface ridge remains anchored in place, stretching from the Mid Atlantic coast to the New England coast. With very weak synoptic flow in place, expect developing onshore flow with lake breezes pushing inland both days that will keep areas along and near the lakeshores a bit cooler than inland areas.

The only small chances for any precip will be: Sunday during peak heating with a weak lingering surface convergent boundary lying across the Genesee Valley/Finger Lakes region where a few scattered diurnally driven showers may bubble up. On Monday, humidity levels start to rise a bit more with a deeper southwesterly flow becoming established as mid and upper level ridge axis shifts just to our east. Strong diurnal heating combined with the increased moisture may be enough to spark a few showers along any aforementioned lake breeze boundaries. Confidence is low at this point of this occurring, so capped PoPs below SChc for now. Otherwise, most areas remain dry through the period.

The main story will be the warmth. Rising heights aloft associated with mid and upper level ridge building overhead, a continued south/southwest low level flow, and a good deal of sunshine will help boost temperatures to well above average levels by the start of the new work week. Expect highs Sunday mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with upper 70s to mid 80s on Monday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Unfortunately, the strong mid and upper level ridge will start to weaken by Tuesday as successive shortwaves traversing the northern periphery of the ridge start to knock it down. That said, outside of any diurnally driven activity (mainly along and inland of any lake breeze boundaries), which at this time looks to be minimal, better chances for showers and storms will remain north of the Canadian border where the better forcing will stay for time being. It will be even warmer on Tuesday with increasing southwesterly flow promoting better diurnal mixing, which will help boost afternoon highs into the low to mid 80s across the bulk of western and northcentral NY, with a few upper 80s not out of the question for the traditionally warmer spots across the Genesee Valley and lake plains. It will be a bit cooler along the lakeshores.

As is typical this far out in time, model guidance differs some on the timing of the strong cold front that has been advertised to impact the area in the mid to late week timeframe. At this point, front looks to cross the area sometime Wednesday night or Thursday.
This will yield another very warm summer-like day on Wednesday, as highs will once again soar into the 80s for much of the area. That said, precipitation chances will increase Wednesday afternoon as a lead shortwave and associated prefrontal trough approach the area ahead of the actual cold front, with the best chances for showers and storms across western NY during the second half of the day.

Unsettled weather can then be expected as waves of low pressure moving northward along the slowly eastward progressing cold front bring periods of showers and storms to our region for Wednesday night and Thursday, before high pressure builds back in providing a dry finish to the work week. As noted in the previous discussion, a cooler airmass is expected to filter in across the northeastern U.S.
in the wake of the cold fropa, however there is still model discrepancy in just how cool that airmass will be, as well as the exact timing of its arrival. All this said, just using pattern recognition alone lends to fairly high confidence that cooler weather is on the way for the latter half of the work week and potentially into the upcoming holiday weekend. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Pockets of 1-2K foot stratus will slowly lift the rest of the morning. More breaks will develop this afternoon with most areas going VFR by 18z. A few showers or even an isolated thunderstorm possible this afternoon across Western NY. Mainly focused across the Southern Tier, and along any subtle boundary with low confidence in any storm impacting TAF sites.

Tonight...any lingering showers will diminish with the loss of daytime heating. There will be some fog possible overnight which may bring some impacts with LIFR-IFR conditions.

Outlook...

Sunday through Tuesday...mainly VFR.

Wednesday...VFR-MVFR. A chance of showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE
The only thing to contend with on the lakes today will be some fog over the open waters. A dense fog advisory for Lake Erie has been issue until noon today
Otherwise
light winds with minimal wave action expected on the lakes through Monday.

South winds develop and begin to pick up by Tuesday as a cold front near the eastern Great Lakes but conditions will likely remain below small craft levels. The next chance at small craft conditions may materialize by midweek as low pressure sends a cold front through the lakes.

BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until noon EDT today for LEZ040-041.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 4 mi26 min NW 7G7 57°F 29.94
45142 - Port Colborne 22 mi26 min NE 1.9G1.9 60°F 57°F0 ft29.94
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 24 mi56 min 58°F 29.91
NREP1 27 mi116 min ENE 2.9G4.1 59°F
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 39 mi56 min W 5.1G5.1 61°F 60°F29.9059°F
EREP1 44 mi56 min NNE 6G6
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 48 mi56 min 63°F 29.93


Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY 6 sm18 minNNW 076 smOvercast Mist 63°F59°F88%29.94
KJHW CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/JAMESTOWN,NY 20 sm17 minWNW 0510 smMostly Cloudy66°F61°F83%29.95
Link to 5 minute data for KDKK


Wind History from DKK
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Buffalo, NY,




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