Friday, January19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:54AMSunset 5:31PM Friday January 19, 2018 6:16 PM EST (23:16 UTC) Moonrise 9:26AMMoonset 8:08PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 355 Am Est Fri Jan 19 2018
Today..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny.
Tonight..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny.
Saturday night..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Areas of fog after midnight.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Cloudy. Areas of fog. A chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening.
Monday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Areas of fog. Showers.
Tuesday..West winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with showers likely and a chance of snow showers. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201801192115;;670840 FZUS63 KDTX 190855 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EST Fri Jan 19 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure averaging 30.00 inches will remain over the region through Saturday. The next low pressure system will begin working into the western Great Lakes on Sunday, passing through the Central Great Lakes as a 29.30 inch low Monday and Monday night. LCZ460-192115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 192312
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
612 pm est Fri jan 19 2018

Aviation
An amplifying longwave ridge over the central united states and
increasing stability aloft will maintain relatively quiet weather
throughout the period. Models are having a difficult time
forecasting the amount of saturation that will occur in the near
surface layer Saturday morning as there is some projected low level
moisture advection from the south. With snowpack in place, model
boundary layer schemes are very suspect and low confidence exists.

Rap is much less bullish on prospects for fog development and very
low cig heights. Have used the rap as a guideline and instead, will
call for a prevailing MVFR hz at all sites around after daybreak
with MVFR cig heights taking hold throughout the day.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate to high for cigs AOB 5kft after 12z Saturday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 251 pm est Fri jan 19 2018
discussion...

upper level ridge spilling over into the great lakes region today.

12z minneapolis sounding revealed very warm air near record, as 850
mb temp checked in at 11 c, and this narrow axis of warm air will be
sliding through southeast michigan this evening as a dry cold front
slides through the northern great lakes tonight. Sufficient
mixing elevated southwest surface winds through the night expected
to hold temperatures around 30 degrees.

Remnant weak 850-700 mb theta-e ridge axis sliding south through the
cwa on Saturday, with renewed 850 mb moisture theta-e coming out of
the midwest late in the day. Maxes will be determined by amount of
low clouds around tomorrow, as there is a major difference between
12z nam GFS 925 mb moisture temps vs 12z euro regional gem. Could
see maxes ultimately end up anywhere from the mid 30s to mid 40s.

Preference will be to lean toward partly sunny skies and milder temps
(lower 40s), as arw is not nearly as bullish with the 925 mb
moisture rh.

Low level jet (925-850 mb) over the ohio valley Saturday night
veering, and becoming a bit more west-southwest, and thinking the
low level moisture sufficient to generate drizzle light rain will
struggle to make much inroads across the southern michigan border
through Saturday night. None-the-less, if a sufficient depth of
saturation occurs, with temperatures flirting around freezing mark,
a slight chance of light freezing rain drizzle appears warranted
along south of m-59. Higher dew pts coming over the frozen ground on
Sunday will likely result in some fog, but dew pts only expected to
be in the mid 30s, probably not high enough to support dense fog,
prefer values closer to 40 degrees, but also the amount of snow cover
remaining, if any, will factor in as we head into Sunday evening.

Aggressive height falls spreading into the plains on Sunday, and
over the midwest iowa by Monday morning. Strengthening surface high
over northern ontario (1036-1038 mb) with the tightening low level
baroclinic zone over lower michigan will present a better
opportunity for freezing rain along north of m-46 late Sunday night
as drier sfc-925 mb easterly flow undercuts the moisture warm
advcection above.

Low pressure traveling northeast from ia mo into michigan Monday 12z
to Tuesday 12z will bring the likely chance for precipitation
throughout both days. There are slight discrepancies regarding the
track of the low as it traverses across michigan, with the GFS gem
taking the low over northern lower michigan, while the ECMWF run
places the low across central lower michigan and into the thumb.

Despite the discrepancies, 850 mb temperatures averaging 4 - 6 c and
surface temperatures peaking in the low to mid-40s will support rain
for precipitation seen throughout Monday. As the low continues to
push northeast into ontario, cold canadian air will quickly wrap
around the western side of the low, dropping 850 mb temperatures
down to an average of -5c by 12z Tuesday. As a result, precipitation
is expected to transition from rain, to a rain snow mix, and
eventually all snow throughout the Tuesday morning hours. Light snow
will be possible throughout Tuesday, before tapering off by early
Wednesday as low pressure pushes into the new england.

Temperatures will return to season to slightly above seasonal norms
behind the low, with daytime highs peaking in the mid to upper-30s
through the mid-week period. Surface high pressure and ridging aloft
will help keep conditions dry through this time, with a late week
developing low pressure system bringing the next chance for
precipitation by Saturday.

Marine...

high pressure centered over the southeastern us will dominate the
weather over the great lakes for the next couple days. Southwesterly
flow on the northwestern edge of the high pressure will persist
through today with winds staying generally around 30 knots or less.

Winds will back to the south southeast by Sunday afternoon and
evening as the next low pressure system approaches and also brings
increased chances for rain to close out the weekend. Rain chances
continue on Monday with winds becoming elevated as the center of low
pressure system enters the great lakes region. Anticipate winds to
be somewhat tempered by the warm air advection with this system
through the weekend, but winds could pick up out of the southwest
when cold air rushes in on the back side of the system.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Sf am
marine... ... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi77 min SW 8 G 16 35°F 1010.5 hPa (-0.3)
AGCM4 24 mi47 min 31°F 1009.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi47 min 33°F 1008 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi37 min SSW 19 G 21 33°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi47 min SW 13 G 20 33°F 1007.6 hPa22°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi24 minSW 13 G 2110.00 miFair34°F21°F59%1010.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi81 minSW 11 G 1810.00 miOvercast34°F19°F54%1011.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi51 minSSW 14 G 1810.00 miFair34°F21°F60%1009.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW10
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W12SW11SW10SW12SW11SW9SW8SW8SW11SW12
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1 day agoSW14
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W16W14SW12SW9SW10
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2 days agoSW8SW7W7W7W6W7W7W5W5W4W5SW5SW7W7W8SW7SW7SW9SW10SW11SW13SW12SW11SW12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.