Saturday, June24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 9:14PM Saturday June 24, 2017 9:53 AM EDT (13:53 UTC) Moonrise 5:40AMMoonset 8:45PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 351 Am Edt Sat Jun 24 2017
Today..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and early afternoon...then increasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Partly Sunny in the morning becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the morning...then light showers likely in the afternoon and evening. A chance of light showers late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201706242000;;733629 FZUS63 KDTX 240753 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 351 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure centered over eastern Canada will keep cool and slightly unsettled weather over the Great Lakes through the weekend. A weak trough, 29.80 inches, will also drop through Lake Huron tonight and early Sunday. LCZ460-242000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 240940
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
540 am edt Sat jun 24 2017

Aviation
Mostly clear skies will prevail through the morning hours. Daytime
heating and an upper level disturbance working across the area will
then allow for a bknVFR CU field this afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers are also expected to develop, with greatest
coverage up towards mbs and fnt. A few thunderstorms will also be
possible across southeast michigan, but probability is too low to
include in tafs. Loss of daytime heating and subsidence behind the
exiting upper wave should allow clouds to scatter out this evening.

Otherwise, westerly winds will gust to 25 knots this afternoon.

For dtw... Potential for showers will exist between 17-00z, but
coverage should be isolated. The chance for a thunderstorm in the
airspace is low this afternoon evening, but possible.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low confidence in ceilings AOB 5kft this afternoon and evening.

* low confidence in thunderstorms at dtw this afternoon and evening.

Prev discussion
Issued at 350 am edt Sat jun 24 2017
discussion...

broad mid level troughing will grip the great lakes region
throughout the upcoming weekend. The subsequent suppression of the
mean thickness field under prevailing deep layer west-northwest flow
will maintain a cooler and less humid resident environment during
this time. The combination of cooler mid level temperatures and
near surface diabatic heating will establish a steep lapse rate
environment for substantial diurnal CU growth today. This ascent
will be augmented this afternoon by the arrival of a shortwave and
cold pool, as energetic northwest flow directs a series of
perturbations into the base of the mean trough over the next several
days. Recent model guidance remains supportive of an increase in
shower coverage as weak instability emerges beneath the inbound cold
pool and with the small scale increase in cyclonic flow. Higher
probability of development with northward extent given favorable
positioning, which should translate into a scattered coverage of
showers with isolated thunderstorms largely impacting the tri-
cities thumb down through the i-69 corridor. MLCAPE reaches
upwards of 800 j kg, perhaps sufficient to generate a deep enough
updraft to support small hail given the lower freezing levels.

Paltry deep layer wind fields will preclude a greater risk of
organized development.

A stronger wave will lift across central lower mi late tonight into
early Sunday. This will yield a period of greater forced ascent,
potentially capitalizing on sufficient moisture and steep lapse
rates at the mid levels to produce another round of scattered
showers isolated thunderstorms. Should the timing prove a touch
slower allowing for greater diurnally driven low level
destabilization, then a localized region of higher coverage will be
plausible. This wave will lead in a secondary period of cold air
advection for Sunday, as 850 mb temperatures dip into the 5-6c
range. This will place highs in vicinity of 70 degrees all
locations, or a good 10 degrees below normal.

Timing of any subsequent shortwaves remains too ill-defined to
provide greater detail, but it generally appears SE michigan will
remain susceptible to additional bouts of heightened cva and cold pool
intrusions through Monday. A scattered shower isolated thunder
mention remains highlighted for the Monday period. Neutral
temperature advection under this relatively static pattern will
again ensure temperatures remain well below normal to begin the work
week. Airmass modification commences beginning Tuesday as the upper
trough axis eases eastward and upper heights begin to recover. Warm
air advection then ramps up Wednesday, with temperatures returning
to around average for midweek.

Marine...

west to northwest flow will be maintained through the weekend
between low pressure over eastern canada and high pressure building
through the plains and into tennessee valley. The highest speeds
will be over western lake erie where the gradient will be a little
tighter, resulting in gusts that will just top 20 knots both this
afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers, and possibly a
thunderstorm, are also expected each afternoon. Weak low pressure
tracking through the area will bring scattered to numerous showers
and a few thunderstorms Monday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Hlo
discussion... Mr
marine... ... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi53 min WNW 7 G 12 68°F 1010.5 hPa (+2.0)
AGCM4 24 mi53 min 67°F 1009.7 hPa (+2.1)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi53 min 72°F 1009.3 hPa (+1.8)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi53 min WNW 16 G 18 67°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi53 min WNW 4.1 G 6 67°F 1009.3 hPa (+1.7)51°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi60 minWNW 710.00 miFair69°F57°F66%1009.7 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi55 minW 710.00 miFair68°F57°F70%1009.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi59 minWNW 410.00 miFair67°F54°F65%1010.8 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8W11
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E10CalmSW4W7W11
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NW6NW6W6W6W5W5W5W6W6W5W6W7W7
1 day agoSW10W5SW9SW13
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W12CalmS8SW7SW11SW10
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2 days ago3CalmN8SE74E7CalmSE7SE10S7SE6S5S5S4S3CalmCalmSE3CalmS3S6SE6S7S9
G15

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (9,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.