Tuesday, April23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 8:23PM Tuesday April 23, 2019 6:00 AM EDT (10:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:42AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 330 Pm Edt Mon Apr 22 2019
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots with gusts to 20 knots veering to the west late in the afternoon. Cloudy. Numerous light showers and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning...then scattered light showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201904230815;;327678 FZUS63 KDTX 221930 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 330 PM EDT Mon Apr 22 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.80 inches moves from Iowa into northern Lower Michigan tonight and Tuesday morning. Moderate south wind shifts northwest and becomes gusty Tuesday afternoon before high pressure averaging 30.00 inches moves in during Wednesday. The next front is due Thursday but is projected to be on the weak side as it moves through the region. LCZ460-230815-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 230805
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
401 am edt Tue apr 23 2019

Discussion
Dramatically lowered pops this morning with virtually no convective
response south of about i-69 owing to poorly convergent veered flow
and poor lapse rates within the sub-8kft effective layer. Another
round of isolated shallow showers with a chance of thunder will work
through the CWA between about 09z and 13z as the instability axis
draws north in advance of the incoming mid-level wave. Surface cold
front will then sweep through the CWA from west to east between
roughly 13-17z, the ensuing cold advection deepening the boundary
layer and supporting gusty winds through the daylight hours. H85
temps are progged to fall from the low teens into the mid single
digits during this time, surface temperature falls largely offset by
seasonally strong insolation. Post-frontal stratus will aggressively
clear during the afternoon as deep layer confluent flow and surface
high pressure builds in from the west. Unremarkable pattern through
the week as nwp continue to struggle with timing of lower amplitude
waves within relatively fast moving flow aloft. One way or another,
expect occl chances for rain with relatively small temperature
oscillations about climo. After a choice day on Wednesday featuring
nearly full insolation, light wind, and highs in the 60s within the
modest mid-level thermal trough, the next opportunity for precip
arrives late thurs. Eventual phasing of incoming northern stream
energy with the low ejecting out of the SW us will do little for
precip chances locally as the southern wave forces better moisture
well east. Nothing more than a chc pop warranted attm. Hints in some
of the guidance for greater longwave amplification potential by
week's end appear unlikely given fast-moving flow and poor
environment for wave amplification east of the rockies. Forecast
simply favors temps remaining slightly below climo during this time
as zonal aggregate westerlies stick near 45n.

Marine
Cold front on pace to lift across the region today. A brief period
of moderate southerly flow this morning will shift to northwest with
the frontal passage. Winds will strengthen for a time this
afternoon, with gusts reaching 20 to 25 knots at times mainly over
the open waters. This will preclude issuance of small craft
headlines for the nearshore waters at this time. Winds diminish
tonight as high pressure builds into the region. This high will
maintain lighter winds on Wednesday. Modest southwest winds will
develop Thursday as weak frontal boundary lifts into the great
lakes.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1149 pm edt Mon apr 22 2019
aviation...

sharp mid to upper level ridging will hold through the early morning
hours with flow trajectories still soundly anticyclonic.

Precipitation chances will wait until strong 750mb theta E gradient
sweeps across the area west to east. Increased midlevel theta e
advecting under steep midlevel lapse rates will result in a sizable
increase in midlevel instability in the 08-12z time window. Per
trends, maintained a tempo group Tuesday morning ahead of daybreak
for thunderstorm activity. Confidence is low on coverage of tstorm
activity. Well mixed westerly to northwesterly flow is anticipated
on Tuesday withVFR ceilings through mid afternoon tue.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* low to moderate for thunderstorm occurrence Tuesday morning.

* moderate for ceiling AOB 5000 ft Tuesday.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc
marine... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi61 min SE 2.9 G 5.1 51°F 1012.5 hPa (-2.7)
AGCM4 24 mi43 min 55°F 44°F1011.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi43 min 54°F 1011.2 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi181 min SSE 6 G 7 57°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi43 min SSW 12 G 17 55°F 1011.1 hPa45°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi68 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy57°F46°F69%1011.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi65 minSE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F49°F100%1012.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi66 minSSE 410.00 miMostly Cloudy58°F44°F60%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE4S3SW6S6S8S11S12S12S10S12
G17
S13S9S7SE8SE8SE8SE8SE8SE4SE5S5SE8S5S7
1 day agoW4W4W3SW4CalmW64W33S10S10S12S6S7S5SE4S5S3S4S4CalmCalmS3S6
2 days agoN15
G23
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NE11N11N11N11N16
G21
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N9N8N6N4N5NW5N6N4CalmNW3W4W4W4W4NW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.