Friday, April20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 8:21PM Friday April 20, 2018 4:28 PM EDT (20:28 UTC) Moonrise 9:20AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 29% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 355 Am Edt Fri Apr 20 2018
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Light and variable winds. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm.
Saturday night..Light and variable winds. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm.
Sunday..Light and variable winds becoming east 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon and evening. Mostly Sunny early in the morning becoming clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201804202015;;222365 FZUS63 KDTX 200755 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 355 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.50 inches, will expand into the Great Lakes today. This high pressure will persist through the weekend, slowly moving to the east coast by early next week. LCZ460-202015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 201900
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
300 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018

Discussion
Temps pretty much on target today rising into the low to mid 50s
except mid upper 40s in the thumb under full insolation. Extremely
dry 12z sounding fully supportive of cloud free skies for the
balance of the afternoon as surface dewpoints have fallen into the
teens with deep diurnal mixing. The dry boundary layer, clear skies,
and a gradient sufficiently weak to allow for decoupling early in
the evening will be supportive of another chilly night. Thin cirrus
already spreading across lake michigan will gradually spread over
the area and thicken through tonight, eventually putting a floor on
low temps in the upper 20s and low 30s per met mav statistical
guidance, which were both on the cooler side of the solution
envelope.

Mid and high clouds are widespread over the central us today in
association with the closed low centered near the 4-corners at press
time. 12z nwp appears to have initialized well with mid upper
tropospheric moisture fields and progged soundings for Saturday
suggest pessimism. Forecast soundings from the GFS indicate full
saturation from the troposphere down to 500mb. Overcast skies will
dominate for the balance of the day across the south. Given
virtually no change in the resident thermal profile from today,
temps have been lowered into the low 50s south of m59. Would not be
entirely surprised to see some locations stuck in the upper 40s, but
will give the mid shift a last minute opportunity to make that
adjustment if needed. Confluent flow pivoting through the great
lakes from the north will force the cloud shield south sufficiently
early in the day to allow temps to rebound in the saginaw valley.

The thumb will be limited by cool onshore flow due to the strong
lake aggregate that will limit mixing depths.

As the closed low meanders from the 4-corners today into the lower
ms valley by late Sunday, northern stream energy will force upper
ridging over the great lakes for the latter half of the weekend.

Subsequent modification of the thermal field may be too late to make
too much of a difference as the 12z GFS indicates 850mb temps will
remain below 0c until 21z Sunday afternoon. Therefore suspect Sunday
will be quite similar to today with no expectation for clouds and
highs only limited by the cool airmass over the region. A stronger
easterly gradient as the lake aggregate translates east beneath
progressive upper ridging will support highs near 60 west of us-23
and in the mid 50s over the eastern CWA where mixing depths will be
more limited in the lake shadows.

The stretch of dry weather will continue through Tuesday with high
pressure remaining in control at the surface with a split-flow
pattern aloft. Heading into Wednesday, a closed upper low over the
southeast CONUS will open up and merge with incoming northern stream
shortwave energy diving across the northern plains. The long range
guidance diverges significantly in the handling of this interaction,
but enough moisture advecting north across the region will lead to a
period of scattered showers late Tuesday and continuing into
Wednesday night. A secondary closed upper low amidst deepening
longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS will continue to lead to
unsettled weather conditions heading into the weekend.

Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday will be the warmest in quite some
time, with high temperatures reaching well into the 60s. As showers
overspread the region during the midweek period, temperatures will
cool, but still remain in the 50s for daytime highs.

Marine
High pressure will dominate the region for the next few days. High
will slowly drift eastward, resulting in weakening winds tonight
that will remain light and variable through the weekend. Light
southerly winds will emerge Monday as the high exits to the east.

Unsettled weather likely to return by late Tuesday into Wednesday as
an upper trough pivots through the great lakes.

Prev discussion
Issued at 101 pm edt Fri apr 20 2018
aviation...

vfr conditions to continue through the period as surface high
pressure settles over the great lakes this afternoon. Light
north-northwesterly flow will gradually diminish into the evening
and overnight hours, while a dry column and subtle subsidence will
maintain mostly clear skies. Some high cirrus clouds will move in
late in the period as moisture spills over the ridge axis upstream.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Jvc irl
marine... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Tf
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi29 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 46°F 1031.2 hPa (-1.0)
AGCM4 24 mi41 min 51°F 1030.4 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi41 min 46°F 1031.4 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi49 min SE 8.9 G 8.9 44°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi41 min NE 9.9 G 12 1031.6 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi36 minS 410.00 miFair53°F23°F31%1031.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi33 minNNW 8 G 1510.00 miFair54°F23°F31%1031.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi34 minNNE 410.00 miFair56°F19°F24%1031.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW14
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E12E8E6SE3CalmCalmW4W5NW4NW5NW3NW4NW4NW6N6N4Calm----N6SE4S4
1 day ago----E8E8NE10E8NE15
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NE14N10N9N10--NW8----NW12NW8
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2 days agoW14W13W12W11W12W11W11W14W9
G15
W9
G15
W8W8W9NW8NW9NW7NW7NW6NW7----------

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.