Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
April 27, 2024 3:37 PM EDT (19:37 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:29 AM Sunset 8:28 PM Moonrise 11:53 PM Moonset 7:21 AM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 412 Am Edt Sat Apr 27 2024
Today - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the morning - .then a chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday - Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and early morning - .then becoming south 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - South winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the morning - .then light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday - Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Light showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
No data
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 271712 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 112 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Southwest winds gust to 35 mph this afternoon.
- Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday with above normal temperatures before a cold front arrives on Tuesday.
AVIATION
Envelope of enhanced near surface moisture and associated MVFR clouds is making steady progress across Southeast Michigan early this afternoon. The cloud field is expected to slowly lift and scour from south to north through the balance of the afternoon. While complete clearing is not expected, expecting the integrity of the cloud field to slowly degrade. Peak winds to 30kts from the southwest have become common at all the terminals and will remain the prevailing condition until sunset. As the surface flow decouples this evening, low-level wind shear from the southwest will emerge and continue through the night.
Aside from this afternoon's winds, the other item of concern is the prospects for convection tonight into Sunday. There is a low chance for thunderstorms this evening across the Detroit terminals.
Meanwhile, anticipated convection over Northern Lower Michigan has a shot at holding together into the Saginaw region late tonight.
However, the best chance for activity will be during the morning Sunday, with the best opportunity at PTK, FNT, and mbS. Finally, the lingering frontal boundary in the vicinity of FNT may initiate additional convection Sunday afternoon.
For DTW/D21 Convection...there are three opportunities for convection within the airspace. First, a limited window around 00z this evening with the next surge of deeper moisture into the building instability. Convective character would be widely scattered and progressive. Second, around sunrise with an advancing warm front- like feature. Coverage is expected to be greater across the northern sections of the airspace with lesser chances at the airfield. Third, during the mid to late afternoon on Sunday as the stalled front serves as focus for new diurnal convective development. Coverage with this activity looks limited and across the north third of the airspace.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low in thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
* Moderate for low-level wind shear tonight.
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon and Sunday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
UPDATE...
Main changes were to account for a southeastward expansion of the SPC Day1 Slight Risk area that now includes the Tri-Cities region with this threat commencing probably late afternoon at the earliest.
For Metro Detroit and the immediate vicinity, it now appears that precipitation will start even later than previously thought -- closer to midnight tonight -- with low attendant chances for severe weather. After midnight, thunderstorm chances for the Metro area grow considerably with the approach of the cold front from the northwest.
It's not often that southeast Lower MI experiences a tenfold increase in atmospheric moisture over the course of 24 hours, but that is what's borne out by this morning's 12Z DTX roab showing 1.25" PWAT compared to 0.12" yesterday morning. Related to this, precipitation chances grow considerably for the Metro after midnight tonight. There also is a growing risk for marginally impactful rain accumulations by late Sunday morning in the more prone areas given the slow southward drift of the cold front and impressive boundary parallel moist transport. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlook stops just west of the CWA and it will be interesting to see what later outlooks indicate.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
DISCUSSION...
Surface low pressure (993 mb) affecting morning shower development across Southeast Michigan accelerates northeastward from central Minnesota to The Keweenaw Peninsula today as the governing wave aloft opens up, interacting with a northern stream shortwave over Ontario. This adjustment induces further constriction of the surface pressure gradient as a 1034 mb surface ridge builds south across the Mid-Atlantic. Local flow veers from SE to SW today with prevailing speeds in excess of 15 knots. Low-level wind profiles reveal 50+ knot flow near the 5 kft AGL level, but given the warm advection regime, mixing depths remain quite shallow for most of the diurnal period. Still, with 25+ knot winds down to 500 ft AGL, gusts will generally range between 25 and 35 mph by late morning.
Regarding precipitation processes, the initial band of showers tied to isentropic ascent have moved off to the northeast while scattered activity begins to develop with inbound frontogenesis. These showers also benefit from substantial dynamic support as a region of divergence moves in aloft while the main LLJ axis situates over southern Lower Michigan. Potential exists for updraft overachievement with UVVs capable of some lightning generation in spite of limited instability. Opted to maintain current Slight/Chance Thunder wording with revised PoPs. Given the barrage of ThetaE convergence and CVA, CAM depiction varies in specifics, but most of the morning convective activity should conclude by 16Z while some lingering showers persist near the shoreline communities until 18Z. Confidence continues to rise in a mainly dry afternoon forecast as the western extend of the Atlantic anticyclone impinges on the region. This also promotes some thinning of the cloud deck and a late day boost to temperatures. Fully entrenched within the warm sector marked by 850 mb temps of 12C to 13C, should easily break into the mid (if not upper) 70s this afternoon, roughly 15F above normal.
The anomalous warmth paired with Gulf-augmented dewpoints approaching 60F this evening prime Lower Michigan for modest conditional instability. Main concern is the presence of a capping inversion around 6 kft that is represented in the NAMnest and GFS while the feature is less prevalent via the ARW and RAP.
Additionally, RH cross-sections highlight the impact of the veered mid-level flow which effectively dries out the column above the inversion. Lift mechanism(s) might be non-existent during this timeframe as the system's cold front remains stalled over Western Michigan. The boundary won't release until later in the evening as an upstream wave ejects out of the synoptic subtropical jet from the Desert Southwest. Given this lagged frontal progression, perhaps as late as midnight, the main threat for both broader coverage of thunderstorms and any strong to severe activity is largely reserved for the Tri-Cities area where MUCAPEs peak with 35-40 knots of EBS.
SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk for severe weather west of a line from Adrian to Bad Axe which should stay quite isolated in nature should storms materialize.
The front should be in the process of washing out by Sunday morning and taking position as a bisecting stationary boundary. Not much in the way of synoptic adjustments as the secondary shortwave takes a slightly more westerly trajectory through the Upper Midwest than today's. Persistent ThetaE advection and additional warming capitalize on the surface convergence axis for addition showers/storms while the better forcing aloft holds off to the northwest. Very warm conditions expected for areas south of the front with highs breaking 80F across the southern four counties.
Additional rounds of showers and/or storms possible Sunday night.
Nuisance forecast extends into Monday with additional periods of convective activity as the warm sector resides over the region, but the VortMax from the secondary wave remains well off to the west.
Persistent moisture transport and confluent low-level flow maintain unstable conditions with opportunities for both elevated and surface based convection. A cold front arrives Monday night with increasingly uniform westerly flow through the column. A cooler and drier forecast stays through Wednesday morning, dependent on the status of an extensive cold front draped from Manitoba to Texas should wash out over the Great Lakes. Active pattern returns through the latter half of the week with at least two speed maxes work through the northern tier of the Lower 48 with revitalized warm advection.
MARINE...
Strong low pressure moves across Lake Superior on today. Wind veer southerly today with gusts touching gale force this morning before gradually weakening through the day as much warmer air moves into the region to stabilize flow over the cold lake water. The warm air also fuels thunderstorm potential through tonight, and possibly even into Sunday as the associated cold front stalls over the region. The front awaits yet another low pressure system moving in from the Plains Sunday into Monday.
CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for April 28th:
April 28th: Detroit 84 (set in 1986)
Flint 85 (set in 1990)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 85 (set in 1990)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 112 PM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Southwest winds gust to 35 mph this afternoon.
- Additional showers and storms are possible Sunday and Monday with above normal temperatures before a cold front arrives on Tuesday.
AVIATION
Envelope of enhanced near surface moisture and associated MVFR clouds is making steady progress across Southeast Michigan early this afternoon. The cloud field is expected to slowly lift and scour from south to north through the balance of the afternoon. While complete clearing is not expected, expecting the integrity of the cloud field to slowly degrade. Peak winds to 30kts from the southwest have become common at all the terminals and will remain the prevailing condition until sunset. As the surface flow decouples this evening, low-level wind shear from the southwest will emerge and continue through the night.
Aside from this afternoon's winds, the other item of concern is the prospects for convection tonight into Sunday. There is a low chance for thunderstorms this evening across the Detroit terminals.
Meanwhile, anticipated convection over Northern Lower Michigan has a shot at holding together into the Saginaw region late tonight.
However, the best chance for activity will be during the morning Sunday, with the best opportunity at PTK, FNT, and mbS. Finally, the lingering frontal boundary in the vicinity of FNT may initiate additional convection Sunday afternoon.
For DTW/D21 Convection...there are three opportunities for convection within the airspace. First, a limited window around 00z this evening with the next surge of deeper moisture into the building instability. Convective character would be widely scattered and progressive. Second, around sunrise with an advancing warm front- like feature. Coverage is expected to be greater across the northern sections of the airspace with lesser chances at the airfield. Third, during the mid to late afternoon on Sunday as the stalled front serves as focus for new diurnal convective development. Coverage with this activity looks limited and across the north third of the airspace.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low in thunderstorms tonight into Sunday morning.
* Moderate for low-level wind shear tonight.
* High in ceilings aob 5000 feet this afternoon and Sunday morning.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at Issued by National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
UPDATE...
Main changes were to account for a southeastward expansion of the SPC Day1 Slight Risk area that now includes the Tri-Cities region with this threat commencing probably late afternoon at the earliest.
For Metro Detroit and the immediate vicinity, it now appears that precipitation will start even later than previously thought -- closer to midnight tonight -- with low attendant chances for severe weather. After midnight, thunderstorm chances for the Metro area grow considerably with the approach of the cold front from the northwest.
It's not often that southeast Lower MI experiences a tenfold increase in atmospheric moisture over the course of 24 hours, but that is what's borne out by this morning's 12Z DTX roab showing 1.25" PWAT compared to 0.12" yesterday morning. Related to this, precipitation chances grow considerably for the Metro after midnight tonight. There also is a growing risk for marginally impactful rain accumulations by late Sunday morning in the more prone areas given the slow southward drift of the cold front and impressive boundary parallel moist transport. The latest WPC excessive rainfall outlook stops just west of the CWA and it will be interesting to see what later outlooks indicate.
PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM EDT Sat Apr 27 2024
DISCUSSION...
Surface low pressure (993 mb) affecting morning shower development across Southeast Michigan accelerates northeastward from central Minnesota to The Keweenaw Peninsula today as the governing wave aloft opens up, interacting with a northern stream shortwave over Ontario. This adjustment induces further constriction of the surface pressure gradient as a 1034 mb surface ridge builds south across the Mid-Atlantic. Local flow veers from SE to SW today with prevailing speeds in excess of 15 knots. Low-level wind profiles reveal 50+ knot flow near the 5 kft AGL level, but given the warm advection regime, mixing depths remain quite shallow for most of the diurnal period. Still, with 25+ knot winds down to 500 ft AGL, gusts will generally range between 25 and 35 mph by late morning.
Regarding precipitation processes, the initial band of showers tied to isentropic ascent have moved off to the northeast while scattered activity begins to develop with inbound frontogenesis. These showers also benefit from substantial dynamic support as a region of divergence moves in aloft while the main LLJ axis situates over southern Lower Michigan. Potential exists for updraft overachievement with UVVs capable of some lightning generation in spite of limited instability. Opted to maintain current Slight/Chance Thunder wording with revised PoPs. Given the barrage of ThetaE convergence and CVA, CAM depiction varies in specifics, but most of the morning convective activity should conclude by 16Z while some lingering showers persist near the shoreline communities until 18Z. Confidence continues to rise in a mainly dry afternoon forecast as the western extend of the Atlantic anticyclone impinges on the region. This also promotes some thinning of the cloud deck and a late day boost to temperatures. Fully entrenched within the warm sector marked by 850 mb temps of 12C to 13C, should easily break into the mid (if not upper) 70s this afternoon, roughly 15F above normal.
The anomalous warmth paired with Gulf-augmented dewpoints approaching 60F this evening prime Lower Michigan for modest conditional instability. Main concern is the presence of a capping inversion around 6 kft that is represented in the NAMnest and GFS while the feature is less prevalent via the ARW and RAP.
Additionally, RH cross-sections highlight the impact of the veered mid-level flow which effectively dries out the column above the inversion. Lift mechanism(s) might be non-existent during this timeframe as the system's cold front remains stalled over Western Michigan. The boundary won't release until later in the evening as an upstream wave ejects out of the synoptic subtropical jet from the Desert Southwest. Given this lagged frontal progression, perhaps as late as midnight, the main threat for both broader coverage of thunderstorms and any strong to severe activity is largely reserved for the Tri-Cities area where MUCAPEs peak with 35-40 knots of EBS.
SPC continues to advertise a Marginal Risk for severe weather west of a line from Adrian to Bad Axe which should stay quite isolated in nature should storms materialize.
The front should be in the process of washing out by Sunday morning and taking position as a bisecting stationary boundary. Not much in the way of synoptic adjustments as the secondary shortwave takes a slightly more westerly trajectory through the Upper Midwest than today's. Persistent ThetaE advection and additional warming capitalize on the surface convergence axis for addition showers/storms while the better forcing aloft holds off to the northwest. Very warm conditions expected for areas south of the front with highs breaking 80F across the southern four counties.
Additional rounds of showers and/or storms possible Sunday night.
Nuisance forecast extends into Monday with additional periods of convective activity as the warm sector resides over the region, but the VortMax from the secondary wave remains well off to the west.
Persistent moisture transport and confluent low-level flow maintain unstable conditions with opportunities for both elevated and surface based convection. A cold front arrives Monday night with increasingly uniform westerly flow through the column. A cooler and drier forecast stays through Wednesday morning, dependent on the status of an extensive cold front draped from Manitoba to Texas should wash out over the Great Lakes. Active pattern returns through the latter half of the week with at least two speed maxes work through the northern tier of the Lower 48 with revitalized warm advection.
MARINE...
Strong low pressure moves across Lake Superior on today. Wind veer southerly today with gusts touching gale force this morning before gradually weakening through the day as much warmer air moves into the region to stabilize flow over the cold lake water. The warm air also fuels thunderstorm potential through tonight, and possibly even into Sunday as the associated cold front stalls over the region. The front awaits yet another low pressure system moving in from the Plains Sunday into Monday.
CLIMATE...
Here are the record high temperatures for April 28th:
April 28th: Detroit 84 (set in 1986)
Flint 85 (set in 1990)
Saginaw/Tri-Cities 85 (set in 1990)
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for LHZ421-422- 441>443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 3 mi | 37 min | SW 13G | 76°F | 29.97 | |||
| AGCM4 | 24 mi | 49 min | 47°F | 29.93 | ||||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 45 mi | 49 min | 29.91 | |||||
| THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 45 mi | 37 min | SW 19G | 66°F | 29.98 | 55°F | ||
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 47 mi | 49 min | SSW 13G | 29.90 | ||||
| PBWM4 | 47 mi | 49 min | 29.91 |
toggle option: (graph/table)
Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 6 sm | 44 min | SW 14G22 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 61°F | 54% | 29.96 | |
| CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 11 sm | 37 min | SW 19G26 | 9 sm | Overcast | 79°F | 63°F | 58% | 29.97 | |
| KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 13 sm | 41 min | SSW 16G26 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 79°F | 61°F | 54% | 29.92 | |
| KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 17 sm | 16 min | WSW 15G25 | 10 sm | Mostly Cloudy | 77°F | 59°F | 54% | 29.97 |
Detroit, MI,
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