Sunday, July22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Grosse Pointe Woods, MI

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Sunrise 6:13AMSunset 9:02PM Sunday July 22, 2018 12:27 PM EDT (16:27 UTC) Moonrise 3:51PMMoonset 1:22AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Am Edt Sun Jul 22 2018
Rest of today..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..North winds 5 to 10 knots in the morning becoming light and variable. Partly Sunny with a chance of light showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers early in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves nearly calm.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201807222000;;876047 FZUS63 KDTX 221402 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 AM EDT SUN JUL 22 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure, 29.70 inches, will continue drifting southeastward into the northern Ohio Valley today. A secondary area of low pressure, also 29.70 inches, will move northwestward from the Mid-Atlantic region towards Lake Huron and gradually weaken today and into Monday. Increasing pressure, building to 29.90 inches, will attempt to become established across the Great Lakes for the midweek period. LCZ460-222000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Grosse Pointe Woods, MI
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location: 42.43, -82.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 221119
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
719 am edt Sun jul 22 2018

Aviation
Plentiful low-level moisture will remain entrenched beneath a
shallow inversion around 4 kft that is expected to strengthen with
weak cold air advection in breezy northeast flow. Broad low pressure
will continue slowly moving southeast into northern ohio valley, but
secondary low pressure will track northwest from the mid-atlantic
region towards lake huron, bringing continued vcsh with intermittent
-shra. Thunderstorm chances look very meager with moist adiabatic
profile and will leave mention out of the tafs at this time. Main
concern will be variable ceilings yet again today, ranging from at
times low-end MVFR toVFR. Brief periods of ifr are not out of the
question, especially at kptk and kfnt where hi-res signal is highest
for more persistent shower activity today. Northeast winds will gust
15-20 knots at times before weakening and becoming more northerly
overnight.

For dtw... Challenging ceiling forecast for the entire period, but
high confidence that the bulk of the period will feature ceilings
below 5 kft. Best shot at -shra appears to be in the 13z-20z
timeframe. Northeast runway operations will be preferred with breezy
northeast flow through at least 00z.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in ceilings at or below 5000 ft entire period, although
periodically ceilings will mix out above 5000 ft.

* very low in thunderstorms occurrence today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 401 am edt Sun jul 22 2018
discussion...

large upper level low pressure system continues to plague the region
this morning with the center of the cyclonic circulation now
arriving over the ohio river in southwest ohio. Surprise of the
overnight has been the weak, lake effect thunderstorm activity that
has pushed off of lake erie and impacted monroe and a small portion
of wayne counties. Not a whole lot going with stable near surface
environment, but heavy rainfall has been observed.

In response to low pressure pushing south, flow trajectories
will become increasingly northeasterly this morning allowing cooler
and more drier low level air to infiltrate the thumb northern cwa
prior to 18z, the southern CWA between 18-21z this afternoon. Yet
another wrinkle in what has been an arduous system to attempt at
details. The big ticket item is the pa edge wave compact low
pressure system that will continue to the northwest and backdoor
moisture back into the cwa. Sure has been interesting to watch the
evolution of the nwp the past few days with this system. Model data
shows the compact absolute vorticity center now penetrating directly
within the heart of the barotropic low. Models do in fact show a
well developed, coherent 700mb circulation that will pivot across
and down into portions of SW lower michigan by tonight. Given degree
of saturation that currently exists within the parent cyclone and
the strength of midlevel system relative isentropic ascent that is
forecasted, preference is to side very pessimistic with the forecast
today. While there will be some lower level dry air that exists this
morning, any precipitation that begins out of the middeck is not
expected to evaporate. Prob space is showing very strong positive
trends in precipitation today between 10-22z. Interesting part is
only pinging those probs for .10 or less. Narrative is overcast, and
plenty of light rain chances for much of today. The most
organized activity will be along the lake huron shoreline and the
thumb. Most likely see some drizzle activity there as well. Lowered
temperatures a good amount, ranging in the upper 60s to 70s.

A large amount of blocking over north america will cause the upper
level low to become elongated and move very little during the early
part of the weak. A better portion of the absolute vorticity energy
is expected to become sheared out and stall directly overhead of
southeast michigan on Monday. As a result, expecting more chances
for shower activity with perhaps a diurnal component. Westerly flow
should increase aloft by Tuesday but the low level pressure gradient
should remain weak. The question becomes where does the moisture
axis line out. ECMWF is more bullish with moisture locally, while
the NAM is to the east. Kept precipitation chances in the forecast
for Tuesday. A little uneasy with the forecast highs for Tuesday,
but MOS consensus exists for middle 80s.

Marine...

broad low pressure will continue to drift southeastward into the
northern ohio valley today. As this low drifts southeast, a
secondary area of low pressure will move northwest from the mid-
atlantic region towards lake huron. This low pressure will stall and
weaken heading into Monday. Unsettled weather featuring periodic
showers will continue through today, with drier conditions
attempting to work into the region starting Monday. Moderate
northeast flow will prevail today, with gusts generally confined to
15-25 knots outside of western lake erie, where frequent gusts
around 25 knots will pose hazardous conditions for small craft. The
flow will weaken beginning Monday as weak surface ridging and
slightly drier weather builds into the great lakes.

Hydrology...

intermittent showers and possibly a few rumbles of thunder will
continue today across much of the region as two areas of broad low
pressure hover near lower michigan. Rainfall amounts today will
generally be under a quarter of an inch, with localized amounts up
to a half of an inch possible where heavier showers or thunderstorms
develop. No flooding concerns are anticipated outside of minor
ponding of water on roadways.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement through this evening for miz083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt this evening for lez444.

Aviation... ..Irl
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 3 mi28 min NNE 17 G 21 64°F 1010.8 hPa (+0.6)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi88 min NE 16 G 19 64°F 71°F1009.4 hPa (+1.1)
AGCM4 24 mi40 min 62°F 1010.1 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 45 mi46 min 65°F 1010.1 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 45 mi38 min NNE 22 G 24 67°F
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 47 mi52 min NNE 11 G 14 64°F 1010.3 hPa60°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI6 mi35 minNE 11 G 178.00 miLight Rain63°F59°F87%1010.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi92 minNNE 95.00 miLight Rain63°F63°F100%1010.7 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI17 mi33 minNE 810.00 miLight Rain64°F60°F88%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE9SE6SE11E8SE8SE10E10E8E4E6NE6E8E9E6E9E6NE4E6NE7E9E11NE12NE8NE11
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2 days agoS10SE8
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SE7SE11SE10SE10E8SE7SE9SE9SE7SE6SE7SE6SE4SE3CalmSE4E3SE6S8S9S12
G15
SW8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.