Wednesday, June19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Saugus, MA

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Sunrise 5:04AMSunset 8:25PM Wednesday June 19, 2019 1:54 PM EDT (17:54 UTC) Moonrise 10:26PMMoonset 7:04AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ230 Boston Harbor- 116 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. A chance of showers. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Thu..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 foot or less. Patchy fog. Showers likely with a chance of tstms. Some tstms may produce heavy rainfall. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot or less.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 116 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. Low clouds and fog along with light winds will persist through early Thursday. Some improvement during Thursday prior to a sweeping cold front with showers and Thunderstorms along and ahead. High pressure and westerly winds for the weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Saugus, MA
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location: 42.44, -71.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191417
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service boston norton ma
1017 am edt Wed jun 19 2019

Synopsis
A few showers remain possible today into early Thursday, but the
majority of this time period should feature dry weather. A more
potent storm system late Thursday into early Friday with
numerous showers and a few embedded thunderstorms that may
contain locally heavy rainfall. Dry and seasonable weather
returns for the weekend, then summer warmth for early next week
with a risk for a few showers and thunderstorms as a cold front
approaches from the west.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
10 am update...

mid-morning satellite imagery showing breaks in the cloud cover over
interior southern new england. Expecting breaks in the cloud
cover over this area thru the afternoon. However, stratus fog
over east coastal ma and the CAPE islands will likely be
tougher to break. This is due to the stratus deck extending
well offshore accompanied by an onshore flow. Visibility has
continued to improve as areas of fog lift and dissipate.

However the offshore stratus deck may re-introduce fog near the
shoreline at times today.

Not much by way of forcing for convection today, however the warmer
interior should allow for surface-based CAPE up to a few hundred
j kg, and pwats gradually increasing above 1.5". This will allow for
a few showers to develop, and brief heavy rainfall can't be ruled
out. Current forecast pops reflect this thinking. The marine-
influenced shoreline will minimize shower potential in that area.

Temps will have marine influence nearshore this afternoon, with
highs in the 60s to low 70s. Over the interior anticipating highs in
the 70s, with some locales nearing 80.

Previous discussion:
dependency on erosion of low clouds and fog as well as surface winds,
whether more E onshore, as to where the environment can destabilize
within the continental-tropical airmass yielding widely scattered
showers, the additional potential of heavy downpours given slow
steering motions. Airmass generated as there is seemingly not
much synoptic support nor lift, higher pops focused W where
thetae will be on the rise in more favorable regions of surface
- h85 lapse rates, overnight mid-level dry air and subsidence
behind yesterdays weak wave low shifting e.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Thursday
Tonight ...

widely scattered shower activity continues, however exactly where
is left to be determined. Chance pops for all of S new england given
uncertainty however noting height falls across the region, a diffuse
warm frontal boundary beginning to lift back N along with thetae
continental-tropical airmass. Still an absence of lift and synoptic
forcing which resides further W across the oh river valley. Little
airmass change with some boundary layer cooling and continued onshore
flow, expecting low clouds and fog to spread back towards the interior
if not having persisted throughout the day. Lows around the low 60s.

Thursday ...

return of widespread rains with embedded heavier showers and thunder-
storms, the concern that there could be a localized area of exceptionally
heavier rain contributing to flooding. Digging trof axis with accompanying
synoptics and mid-level energy above a surface-reflection cold front.

High thetae continental-tropical airmass well in place with precipitable
waters to 2-inches ahead of a surface low deepening to 995 mb (atypical
for mid june). Localized convergence ahead of the front with instability
and freezing level heights 13-14 kft beneath mid-level ascent and
h3 jet streak, the possibility for deep-layer ascent and locally
heavy rainfall. Convective allowing models signaling some appreciable
rainfall amounts over central portions of new england. Wpc excessive
rainfall outlook with a slight chance for flash flooding. An eye
on the steering-level flow. No certainty just yet as to exactly where
impacts will be felt. Morphology dependent. Notably the 19.0z gfs
is a faster solution compared to a lot of other guidance. Could
end up mostly dry Thursday under the continued influence of marine
air, possibly including low clouds and fog. Higher confidence
s E whereas out towards the ct river valley has a better chance
of destabilizing and seeing outcomes if supportive synoptics are
there. Preference to href 3-hour probability match mean. Not so
much focused on actual progged rainfall amounts but rather the
probability areas.

Long term Thursday night through Tuesday
Highlights...

* showers and a few embedded thunderstorms Thursday night with a
low risk for flooding mainly across western and northern ma
* lingering showers possible Friday morning but mainly dry weather
by afternoon
* dry seasonable this weekend with Sun being the warmer of the days
* warmer with summer-like temps early next week with the risk for a
few showers t-storms but that majority of the time will be dry
details...

Thursday night...

a fairly strong low pressure system for late june approximately
995 mb will track across southern new england Thursday night.

This combined with pwats around 2 inches, some elevated
instability, and a low level convergence zone will result in
showers and a few embedded thunderstorms with localized
torrential rainfall possible. There remains uncertainty as to
where the axis of heaviest rain localized flash flood threat
will setup as we will discuss below.

Most of the guidance suggests that the risk for localized flash
flooding should be to the west and north of our region, where better
low level convergence forcing is depicted. However, we have to be
careful that mesoscale processes do not push the front further
south than modeled. This would place western and northern ma in
the risk for localized flash flooding, since activity may train
along the moving boundary.

So in an nutshell... Current guidance suggests the main flash flood
threat will be west and north of our region.

Nonetheless... Mesoscale processes could shift the boundary
further south putting our western and northern ma zones at risk.

Something will have to watch closely over the next 24 to 36
hours.

Friday...

some lingering showers possible Friday morning, but most of the
guidance suggests northwest flow behind departing low pressure.

Should result in mainly dry weather by afternoon. High temperatures
should top out mainly in the 70s.

Saturday and Sunday...

a closed low over the canadian maritimes will result in
dry seasonable weather for the weekend. It will be a bit breezy sat,
but overall a great start to the weekend with highs mainly in the
70s. The closed low lift further north on Sun allowing for a
warming trend to begin with many locations seeing highs of 80+.

Humidity levels will remain comfortable so a really nice weekend is
in the cards.

Monday and Tuesday...

upper level ridge begins to flex its muscles allowing for rising
height fields summer-like warmth to finally make it into southern
new england by next Mon and tue. Highs will probably be well up
into the 80s to perhaps near 90. The majority of the time will
feature dry weather, but a few showers t-storms will be possible
sometime later Mon Tue as moisture and instability increase out
ahead of a cold front.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... Moderate confidence.

Today ...

ifr-MVFR lifting towardsVFR W to E thru the afternoon.

However, some of the immediate coastal locations especially the
cape and islands may remain or hover around MVFR-ifr as low
clouds and fog flirt with the coast.

Tonight ...

ifr-lifr filtering back in across the interior with continued
light winds and spotty shra activity. Lowest conditions along
the coast.

Thursday ...

winds shifting more s, could be a situation in where ifr-lifr
conditions erode S to N rather than W to e. Towards the latter-
half, the threat of widespread ra with embedded +ra and possible
tsra out across interior new england. With any activity could
see brief lower conditions.

Kbos terminal...

ifr stratus lingers thru midday. Conditions gradually improve
to MVFRVFR during the afternoon.

Kbdl terminal...

MVFR thru midday, which should improve toVFR for the afternoon.

Monitoring for spotty shra activity possible by afternoon, but
the bulk of the activity should be northwest of the terminal.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: mainlyVFR-MVFR, with local ifr possible.

Shra, isolated tsra, patchy br.

Friday:VFR. Breezy. Slight chance shra.

Friday night through Saturday night:VFR. Breezy.

Sunday:VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Thursday ... High confidence.

Today thru Thursday...

overall quiet boating weather with light winds and benign seas
around 2 to 4 feet. However low clouds and fog will be an issue
right on through Thursday morning. It may not be until later
Thursday with strong S winds that lower conditions erode n.

Visibility around 1 to 3 nm.

Outlook Thursday night through Sunday ... Moderate confidence.

Thursday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Rain showers likely, isolated thunderstorms,
patchy fog. Local visibility 1 to 3 nm.

Friday: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.

Slight chance of rain showers.

Friday night through Saturday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas up
to 5 ft.

Saturday night: winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft.

Sunday: winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Frank sipprell
near term... Frank sipprell nmb
short term... Sipprell
long term... Frank
aviation... Frank sipprell nmb
marine... Frank sipprell


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 6 mi54 min 67°F 1012.1 hPa (+0.0)
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 21 mi64 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 60°F 60°F1 ft1011.5 hPa60°F
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 25 mi110 min SSE 7.8 G 7.8 59°F 59°F1 ft1012.1 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 42 mi54 min SSE 11 G 11 59°F 1011.4 hPa (+0.0)59°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 44 mi69 min SSE 1.9 73°F 1012 hPa65°F
FOXR1 - 8454000 - Providence, RI 48 mi54 min S 7 G 8 70°F 64°F1011 hPa (-0.3)
44018 - SE Cape Cod 30NM East of Nantucket, MA 49 mi64 min E 3.9 G 3.9 58°F 1 ft1012.4 hPa58°F

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA4 mi60 minESE 910.00 miOvercast68°F62°F81%1011.9 hPa
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA11 mi61 minSE 610.00 miOvercast68°F63°F84%1011.2 hPa
Laurence G Hanscom Field Airport, MA14 mi58 minSSE 69.00 miOvercast74°F64°F71%1012.2 hPa
East Milton, MA17 mi58 minSE 7 mi69°F64°F84%1012.5 hPa
Norwood, Norwood Memorial Airport, MA19 mi61 minVar 410.00 miOvercast74°F64°F71%1011.5 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi60 minVar 310.00 miOvercast71°F62°F73%1012 hPa

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Last 24hrE6E5SE3NE4NE6E5N5CalmCalmN5N5CalmNE3N5CalmCalmE4SE5SE3CalmE5NE5E7E9
1 day agoSE10SE8SE6SE5SE7SE6S8S9S9SW9SW6SW5SW8SW6SW6S4E5E5SE4NE4E7E6E8E7
2 days agoSE4E6E5E7E8E45CalmCalmS4S3CalmW5NW5W7W7NW11N8N8N4E7E9E9E10

Tide / Current Tables for Lynn Harbor, Massachusetts
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Lynn Harbor
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Wed -- 01:11 AM EDT     10.39 feet High Tide
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:03 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:31 AM EDT     -0.34 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 01:51 PM EDT     9.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 07:38 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:26 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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9.510.4108.66.53.91.4-0.1-0.20.92.64.97.18.698.36.94.92.81.212.13.85.9

Tide / Current Tables for Boston Harbor, Massachusetts Current
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Boston Harbor
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Wed -- 12:46 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     -1.40 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 05:06 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:04 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:21 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 10:39 AM EDT     1.23 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 01:20 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 05:32 PM EDT     -1.20 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 07:37 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:25 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 10:54 PM EDT     1.19 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0.1-0.6-1-1.3-1.4-1.2-0.40.611.21.20.80.2-0.3-0.7-1-1.2-1.1-0.60.411.11.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.