Thursday, March30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ravena, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 7:21PM Thursday March 30, 2017 12:41 PM EDT (16:41 UTC) Moonrise 8:29AMMoonset 10:30PM Illumination 11% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ravena, NY
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location: 42.45, -73.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Albany, NY
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Fxus61 kaly 301510
afdaly
area forecast discussion
national weather service albany ny
1110 am edt Thu mar 30 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will allow for a dry day today with seasonable
temperatures and a partly to mostly sunny sky. Clouds will
increase this evening ahead of an approaching storm system that
will bring snow, rain and sleet to the region for late tonight
through early Saturday. Some areas, especially northern and high
terrain areas, may see significant snowfall from this storm.

Near term /until 6 pm this evening/
As of 1110 am edt... Models continue to advertise major storm to
impact the area Friday into Saturday. Agreement in models is
that it will be a very wet system with around 2 inches of liquid
equivalent precipitation. 00z euro and 06z GFS were cold with
06z NAM warmer. 12z NAM seems to have gotten colder again. If no
flip flopping with gfs/euro occurs later, models would be
indicating major winter storm. If warmer solution verifies,
liquid amounts on wet ground from snowmelt, may be enough to
cause flood issues. Very tough forecast with much uncertainty
continuing. Hopefully some clarification later today...

previous...

as of 627 am edt... An upper level trough continues to depart
off the coast of nova scotia, while weak shortwave ridging is
building into the area from the great lakes and ohio valley. Ir
satellite imagery shows all the clouds of the backside of this
trough have shifted eastward, resulting in mainly clear skies
over the area, with just some thin cirrus around right now.

Surface high pressure is located over quebec and this high
pressure area will continue to slide eastward through the day
today. Although the morning will start off fairly clear, mid and
high level clouds ahead of the next advancing storm system are
already over western new york. These should reach our area by
the afternoon, allowing for increasing clouds later in the day. Winds
will be lighter than yesterday thanks to the nearby high
pressure area.

Temps aloft are still fairly cool, generally around zero to -5
degrees c at 850 hpa. Mixing should be close to 850 hpa today
with the strong late march sunshine and temps look to reach the
mid 40s to low 50s for most areas.

Short term /6 pm this evening through Saturday night/
Late season winter storm to impact the region...

a potent closed off low at 500 hpa will slide across the ohio
valley for tonight into tomorrow. This stacked low pressure area
will have a surface low that heads towards the eastern great
lakes, while another low pressure area forms east of the
appalachian mountains and heads east into the atlantic for
Friday evening into Saturday morning.

Although this evening will start off dry with increasing clouds,
there will be the chance for some snow by about midnight for far
western areas, as increasing warm advection/isentropic lift
allows an area of steady precip to slide eastward across
western and central new york. Precip could initially be in the
form of rain if the boundary layer hasn't cooled off enough, but
wet-bulb effects should allow precip to go over to snow for
most areas as the precip heads eastward across our area through
the late overnight hours, as surface temperatures fall into the
upper 20s to low 30s. All areas will be seeing precipitation by
daybreak Friday, with up to an inch or two of snowfall already
having fallen by 7 am Friday possible for areas west of the
hudson river).

With a low-level jet out of the south at 30-35 kts, temps aloft
will be warming on Friday morning. This will allow some sleet to
start to mix in for the western mohawk valley, eastern
catskills, mid-hudson valley and NW ct. This mixing with sleet
will gradually shift north and east through the morning hours,
reaching the capital region by about mid morning or so. It's
still uncertain exactly how far north this mixing with sleet
will get, as the more aggressive NAM would suggest sleet would
eventually occur across much of the area. Meanwhile, the GFS and
even the ecmwf, as a little further south with the storm track,
and keep the mixing line further south.

In addition, the low level flow out of the east to southeast,
along with strong late march sunshine, will aid in helping to
warm the boundary layer. While these factors would favor a
transition over to rain for valley areas, precip intensity could
counteract these effects and keep p-type as snow (especially
for northern areas, where the cold air is a little deeper
through the column).

Steady precipitation will continue through the entire day Friday
with temps stuck in the low to mid 30s. We do seem to think that
valley areas (including the greater capital region) should see
mainly rain by Friday afternoon, however, any heavier bursts of
precip could allow for snow or sleet to mix in or changeover
from time to time, as the heavier precip forces the temp profile
to go isothermal. Meanwhile, higher terrain areas in the
berkshires, adirondacks, northern taconics and southern greens
look to remain mainly snow during this event.

Snow ratios will be poor, due to the wet and melting nature of
the snowflakes and the dendritic growth zone being so high up.

The heavy wet snow could result in some power outages. It's
still unclear how easily the snow will stick on roadways due to
the warmer ground temps and occurring during the daytime.

However, past late-season storms have shown that if snow falls
hard it enough, it will stick anywhere.

Precip looks to continue into Friday night, as the secondary
surface low develops. This should aid in allowing the temps
aloft to start to cool off, and end the threat for sleet, with
primarily snow and rain by late Friday night. Some areas that
were seeing rain may start to see more and more snowfall into
Friday night, although precip intensity and amounts will finally
be starting to taper down by this time. As the storm starts to
track away on Saturday, just some lingering rain and snow
showers are expected, but the bulk of the accumulation should be
done by Saturday morning.

Valley areas look to see up to 4 inches of snowfall, with over 6
inches possible for higher terrain areas. We will continue with
the winter storm watch for the southern adirondacks, northern
berkshires & southern vt. There continues to be a lot of
uncertainty with the forecast due to p-type and snowfall
amounts and our confidence is rather low at this time. Winter
storm warnings and winter weather advisories will likely be
needed for the areas current under a watch and possibility
other parts of the area, including valley areas. Please see our
probabilistic snowfall maps on our website for the full range of
possibilities with this storm.

Long term /Sunday through Wednesday/
High pressure controls the weather Sunday and then builds east
Monday. Highs Sunday in the mid 40s to around 50 but around 40
higher terrain. Highs Monday in the mid 40s to lower 50s.

Clouds may increase through the day Monday with the approach of the
next system. Rain and mixed precipitation is expected to begin
Monday night as temperatures cool to wet bulb levels. Strengthening
warm advection will turn precipitation to rain during the day
Tuesday. Highs Tuesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Precipitation coverage decreases Tuesday night through Wednesday
but isolated showers/snow showers possible with the gradual exit to
the system and decrease in precipitation coverage. Boundary layer
temperatures may warm as flat upper ridging tries to build east into
our region. Highs Wednesday in the 50s but around 50 higher terrain.

Aviation /15z Thursday through Monday/
Vfr conditions expected through this evening. Other than a few
clouds around 5000 feet this morning, mainly high clouds above 10000
feet will spread through the region through the day. By this
evening, thicker clouds and the leading edge of precipitation ahead
of an approaching area of low pressure are expected to move into our
region. Some snow or mixed precipitation could be on the door step
of all the TAF sites around midnight or shortly after, so including
vcsh at that time with ceilings around 10000 feet. By 07z-10z
precipitation will begin, snow at kalb, kpsf and kgfl but a mix of
snow, sleet and rain at kpou. Ceilings will lower to MVFR and
visibilities just falling to the border of MVFR/ifr in the
precipitation.

Northerly winds at 6 kt or less through the mid morning. Winds will
be north to northeast and light under 10 knots later this morning
through this evening but variable at kpsf and kpou. Winds tend to
northeast to east tonight.

Outlook...

Friday: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Friday night: high operational impact. Definite ra... Sn... Sleet.

Saturday: moderate operational impact. Likely shra... Shsn. Saturday
night: no operational impact. No sig wx. Sunday: no operational
impact. No sig wx. Sunday night: no operational impact. No sig wx.

Monday: no operational impact. No sig wx. Monday night: moderate
operational impact. Chance of ra... Sn.

Fire weather
Much of eastern new york and western new england continues to
have snow on the ground. Although snow melt has been ongoing
recently and most valley areas only have snow depth of a few
inches, much deeper snowpack remains across the hills and
mountains.

Rh values will fall to near 30 percent this afternoon, but
north to northeast winds will only be around 5 mph today.

Precipitation is expected tonight through Saturday morning in
the form of rain, snow and sleet.

Hydrology
The recent rainfall and snowmelt has led to some rises on rivers
and streams, but all streams are now slowly receding. Some
additional snowmelt is expected today, so rivers and streams
will still be running fairly high.

Another storm system is expected on tonight through early
Saturday. Precipitation will be in the form of rain and snow
with some sleet for southern areas. The highest elevations are
expected to see mainly snow or mixed precipitation. This wintry
precipitation will initially prevent much runoff from
occurring. Still, some rivers are expected to have rises by
Friday into Saturday, which will put them near to just below
action stage. Although flooding is not expected through the
weekend, any change in the forecasted precipitation type could
have an impact on river and streams levels. Also, mmefs
suggests that a few river points could approach minor flood
stage during next week if additional precipitation and snowmelt
occurs.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed
and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the
advanced hydrologic prediction service /ahps/ graphs on our
website.

Aly watches/warnings/advisories
Ct... None.

Ny... Winter storm watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
for nyz033-042.

Ma... Winter storm watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
for maz001.

Vt... Winter storm watch from late tonight through Saturday morning
for vtz013>015.

Synopsis... Frugis
near term... Snd/frugis
short term... Frugis
long term... Nas
aviation... Snd/nas
fire weather... Frugis
hydrology... Frugis


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ANMN6 - Hudson River Reserve, NY 31 mi71 min 44°F 1024 hPa22°F
NWHC3 - 8465705 - New Haven, CT 93 mi41 min NE 6 G 13 44°F 41°F1023.1 hPa (-1.7)
BRHC3 - 8467150 - Bridgeport, CT 94 mi41 min E 4.1 G 7 47°F 1022.5 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for New Haven, CT
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Albany International Airport, NY21 mi50 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F21°F42%1024.9 hPa

Wind History from ALB (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3CalmNW12
G19
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N6NW8NW7NW10NW7NW8N4N4N5NW5N3N3N3N5NE11NE9NE5
1 day agoS6S6S9S7S8S3CalmCalmCalmN10
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N6N5N8N7N6N6N3NW4N6N5NE6N5NE5
2 days agoSE6S6S6S7S6S5CalmE3CalmCalmS3S4S3CalmCalmN4CalmCalmCalmN3N3S5S4S4

Tide / Current Tables for New Baltimore, Hudson River, New York
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New Baltimore
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Thu -- 12:51 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:51 AM EDT     5.85 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:24 PM EDT     0.54 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:15 PM EDT     5.33 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.412.43.955.75.85.34.12.81.91.20.60.71.73.14.355.35.14.22.81.8

Tide / Current Tables for Castleton-on-Hudson, Hudson River, New York
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Castleton-on-Hudson
Click for Map
Thu -- 01:18 AM EDT     0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:40 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:08 AM EDT     5.75 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:29 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 01:51 PM EDT     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:32 PM EDT     5.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 10:30 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0.60.10.31.53.24.65.45.75.54.4321.20.50.30.92.33.74.75.25.24.43.11.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Albany, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Albany, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.