Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ithaca, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:35AMSunset 8:30PM Thursday May 23, 2019 6:50 PM EDT (22:50 UTC) Moonrise 11:53PMMoonset 8:38AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LOZ044 Sodus Bay To Mexico Bay Along Lake Ontario- 1218 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.severe Thunderstorm watch 217 in effect until 2 pm edt...
.small craft advisory in effect from 11 pm edt this evening through Friday morning...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Some Thunderstorms may be severe with strong winds and large hail early. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning, then becoming partly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday night..West winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Partly to mostly cloudy. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LOZ044 Expires:201905232100;;335545 FZUS51 KBUF 231618 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1218 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LOZ044-232100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ithaca, NY
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location: 42.45, -76.5     debug


Area Discussion for - Binghamton, NY
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Fxus61 kbgm 232211
afdbgm
area forecast discussion
national weather service binghamton ny
611 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will push through the area this evening bring
isolated thunderstorms, followed by cooler and drier air.

Another front will approach for Saturday and will bring you
another opportunity for showers and strong thunderstorms.

Near term through Friday
600 pm update...

have made several adjustments to the forecast based on latest
trends and high resolution models. Bottom line is that high
shear has overcome very weak CAPE today, limiting severe
weather potential, and overall thunderstorm development.

Multiple upper waves also may not have had enough wavelength
separation from each other with a second short wave running
into an area of subsidence and drying air behind the wave that
came through this morning. A third upper wave moving from
northern michigan into ontario has triggered isolated activity
along the niagara frontier. The cams models continue to want to
fire convection ahead of this feature this evening. Models have
not performed well today, so confidence is much, if any, storm
activity is low. That said, will still sweep some chance pops
across our northern counties this evening to account for this
feature and residual moderate instability lingering in the area.

Most of the southern half of our forecast area should be
relatively rain free.

Previous discussion...

threat for severe storms highly dependent on the amount of
heating and the accompanying instability we can develop. Sat
images show plenty of clouds all the way back to michigan, but
it does look likes some partial clearing is developing over ne
ohio into western ny and pa trying to work into the area. Plenty
of low level shear in place so we will continue to monitor
thunderstorms and the possibility of another watch. Best chance
it seems like would be over the nepa counties where better
shear and the best chance for instability exists.

Otherwise cooler air behind the front will work in this evening
and Friday. Some cold advection clouds will likely develop over
the higher terrain, mainly east of i-81 where a few sprinkles
are possible into Friday morning. Beyond that, dry conditions
will continue into Friday night as high pressure builds into the
area.

Short term Friday night through Sunday
Rather complex but ill defined system races through on Saturday
and brings yet another chance for severe weather. Warm frontal
type feature races through Saturday morning developing a few
showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. This barely clears the
northern area as a cold front plows on from the west with more
serious convection. With the warm front still nearby, concern
would be for low level shear helicity would be available to any
cell that develops increasing the chance for damaging storms.

Of course there are model timing difference but the front should
clear the area in the late evening or just after midnight. Front
then stalls around the mason dixon line early Sunday. This
should keep most convection south of the forecast area but
there is a chance that a few showers to even thunderstorms
could sneak back into nepa.

Long term Sunday night through Thursday
Sunday night through Monday night: high pressure builds in and moves
the region with another calmer period in time for the holiday. Still
pleasant temperature wise with lows in the 50's and highs in the 70's.

Tuesday through Wednesday night: a mid-level ridge over the
southeast deflects the next system into the great lakes. An
associated warm front will provide the lift and moisture for some
additional shower and thunderstorm chances in this period. Higher
chances are currently present across northern portions of central
new york but that will be dependent on the strength and location of
the ridge over the southeast. Our region may see 80's by Wednesday
with ensemble guidance potentially too cool if the boundary ends up
north of our region.

Aviation 21z Thursday through Tuesday
Cold front sweeping through the area this afternoon will bring
showers and thunderstorms, along with brief restrictions to MVFR
levels and gusty winds. Behind the front, cold advections will
lower the ceilings to MVFR in most places as a solid sc deck
moves in overnight. Drier air and mixing will return all
stations toVFR on Friday.

Outlook...

Friday night and Saturday...VFR.

Saturday night... Showers and thunderstorms with associated
restrictions likely.

Sunday through Tuesday... MainlyVFR.

Bgm watches warnings advisories
Pa... None.

Ny... None.

Synopsis... Dgm
near term... Dgm jab
short term... Dgm
long term... Dgm
aviation... Dgm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
OSGN6 - 9052030 - Oswego, NY 70 mi38 min WSW 9.9 G 16 72°F 1006.8 hPa60°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 81 mi50 min WSW 17 G 30 75°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 82 mi38 min 76°F 1006.7 hPa

Wind History for Oswego, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ithaca, Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport, NY3 mi54 minSSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F66°F72%1009.1 hPa

Wind History from ITH (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SE5S6S9S8E7SE7SE8SE8S7SE6SE7SE9S8SE8S8S6S5S7S8S11
G15
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1 day agoNW9NW6NW5CalmCalmNE3E3CalmNE3NE4E5E4E4CalmCalmW334E4CalmNW5CalmE5SE7
2 days agoNW14W18NW13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Binghamton, NY (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Binghamton, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.