Saturday, February23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Bloomingdale, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:28AMSunset 6:27PM Saturday February 23, 2019 4:43 PM EST (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 11:30PMMoonset 10:04AM Illumination 80% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 412 Pm Est Fri Jan 25 2019
.heavy freezing spray warning in effect through Saturday morning...
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday afternoon...
Tonight..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy. A slight chance of snow showers until midday. Freezing spray through the day. Waves 2 to 3 feet.
Saturday night..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Snow showers likely in the evening, then a chance of snow showers overnight. Heavy freezing spray through the night. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 10 to 20 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow showers. Heavy freezing spray. Waves 3 to 5 feet. This is the last nearshore marine forecast (nshgrr) issuance for the season. The nshgrr will again be issued around april 1st 2019, or as conditions warrant.
LMZ845 Expires:201901260415;;919603 FZUS53 KGRR 252113 CCA NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast...corrected National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 412 PM EST Fri Jan 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-260415-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bloomingdale, MI
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location: 42.45, -86     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 232030
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
latest update...

synopsis discussion hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 330 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
- thunderstorms mid to late this evening
- very windy Sunday through Sunday night with wind damage and
numerous power outages likely
- colder with snow Sunday through Sunday night
- blizzard conditions Sunday through Sunday night in central lower
michigan

Discussion (this evening through next Saturday)
issued at 330 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
rapid cyclogenesis will occur late today through Sunday as a
998 mb sfc low currently over southeastern kansas strengthens to
around 972 mb in a position between sault st marie and james bay
early Sunday evening. As noted by our previous shift this strong
of a sfc low will rival the historic fall storms like the 1998
storm, the fitzgerald storm of 1975 and the armistice day storm of
1940.

It will be very windy Sunday through Sunday night as a result of
the pressure gradient between that intense sfc low and a 1040 mb high
over the northern plains states. Wind gusts of up to around 60 to
65 mph are expected which will result in downed trees limbs and
power lines. Numerous power outages are likely. Therefore we will
be issuing a high wind warning for roughly the southern two thirds
of our fcst area.

The strong CAA will result in a rapid changeover of rain to snow
mid to late Sunday morning. Snow will then continue Sunday
afternoon through Sunday night as h8 temps plummet to around -18
to -20 c by 12z mon. Snow accumulations of an inch or two are
forecast near to south of i-96 although isolated amounts closer to
three inches are possible where lake effect bands are most
persistent.

It is noted that higher resolution short range model guidance has
trended up with QPF and fcst snow accumulations for our northern
fcst area. The 3km NAM now shows potential for 5 to 8 inches of
snow near to north of big rapids and this notion is supported by
the fv3. So we have raised forecast snow accumulations somewhat
for areas north of i-96 and especially from near big rapids
northward.

Blizzard conditions are forecast tomorrow through tomorrow night
up there given the snow in conjunction with wind gusts of 50 to
65 mph. Therefore we have hoisted a blizzard warning for our
northern two tiers of counties (except for isabella county where
less snow is forecast) for tomorrow through tomorrow night.

Light lake effect snow showers will quickly taper off to just a
few flurries Monday due to the very dry airmass in place by then
and since inversion heights by Monday morning will have crashed
to around 2-3 kft agl.

A broad sfc high pressure ridge will build in to bring a brief
return to more tranquil wx Monday night and Tuesday. However the
next system moving in from the northern plains states will bring
light snow Tuesday night and Wednesday.

A potentially much stronger system will move nne from the gulf
coast region and bring potential for significant snow Friday night
and Saturday. Another shot of arctic air with lake effect snow
showers will follow for the rest of next weekend.

As for late this afternoon and tonight we expect rain showers to
continue across our central and southern fcst area. A wintery mix
of rain snow sleet fzra over our northern fcst area will transition
to plain rain late this aftn early eve as thermal profiles slowly
moderate up there.

Scattered convection is expected to develop during the mid to late
evening hours tonight as elevated instability increases (h8 LI s
down to -1 to -2) and on the nose of a strong 50-60 kt llj.

Severe wx is unlikely tonight this far north mainly due to weak
instability.

However given this strong of a LLJ and magnitude of winds in the
lower levels of the atmosphere I would not be surprised if we had
a few strong to marginally severe gusty thunderstorms. The most
likely time frame for these is between 03z and 07z tonight.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Sunday afternoon)
issued at 1106 am est Sat feb 23 2019
conditions will gradually deteriorate to MVFR this afternoon as
low clouds move in and rain showers develop. Conditions will
deteriorate further to ifr lifr tonight due to low clouds and
rain.

It will become windy tonight and scattered thunderstorms will
also develop this evening. Low level wind shear is also forecast
beginning late this evening and continuing through 18z Sunday since
wind speeds at only 2 kft agl will be up around 45 kts beginning
tonight through 18z Sunday.

Primarily ifr conditions are expected Sunday as rain changes to
snow during the mid to late morning hours. It will become very
windy Sunday with sustained winds veering to the southwest and
then west at 20 to 30 kts with gusts up to around 35 kts by mid to
late morning and to 40 to 45 kts by midday. Some higher gusts to
near 50 kts are possible at all the terminals beginning early
Sunday afternoon.

Hydrology
Issued at 330 pm est Sat feb 23 2019
a significant warmup as well as rainfall expected this weekend
will start the process of river levels rising again. Anytime we
think about rapid warmups and rainfall this time of year leads to
the logical question about flooding potential. The good news is
that at this point it looks like the rain totals will be low
enough and the warmup will be brief enough to avoid widespread and
significant flooding across our area over the next week. However,
significant rises are very likely on virtually all of our rivers,
and by the first half of next week many of our rivers will again
be near bankfull. We will keep a close eye on forecast trends, but
right now it looks like our rivers should escape without major
issues.

The one fly in the ointment is the renewed threat of ice jams on
some of our rivers. The last big rise on our rivers a few weeks ago
destroyed a lot of the river ice, which will now work to our
advantage (you can't have an ice jam without ice). Limited amounts
of new ice have formed on parts of the rivers, but most of our
rivers remain mostly ice-free at this time. However, there are some
rivers that still have solid ice covering them, including parts of
the grand river (portland, grand rapids area, and
eastmanville robinson township). These areas will be the focus for
potential ice jam formation over the next week, and should be
watched closely.

Once the upcoming warm and windy weather passes, temperatures will
again plunge for next week, which will limit additional snowmelt and
start to give the rivers a chance to recover from all the new
water.

Grr watches warnings advisories
High wind warning from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for miz046-
050>052-056>059-064>067-071>074.

Blizzard warning from 7 am Sunday to 7 am est Monday for
miz037>040-043>045.

Synopsis... Laurens
discussion... Laurens
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... Amd 63


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 16 mi44 min E 9.9 G 14 38°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 25 mi50 min E 15 G 20 36°F 33°F1009.5 hPa
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 36 mi44 min E 2.9 G 4.1 36°F 1010.8 hPa (-2.1)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 57 mi44 min ESE 16 G 22 33°F 1011.2 hPa (-6.5)31°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI15 mi48 minESE 42.50 miLight Rain37°F35°F92%1010.2 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI21 mi51 minE 117.00 miLight Rain37°F28°F73%1011.6 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3E3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E7E5E7E6E8SE7E7E9SE12
G16
SE11SE12
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1 day agoW12
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W6--NW5NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE6E5
2 days agoSE13
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.