Tuesday, March28, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:17AMSunset 7:55PM Tuesday March 28, 2017 5:38 PM EDT (21:38 UTC) Moonrise 6:52AMMoonset 7:43PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 340 Am Edt Tue Mar 28 2017
Today..North winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..North winds 5 to 10 knots becoming northeast 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201703282015;;198066 FZUS63 KDTX 280740 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 340 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE...30.40 INCHES WILL BUILD ACROSS NORTHERN ONTARIO TODAY. THIS HIGH WILL STRENGTHEN TO 30.60 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRIFTING TO QUEBEC BY THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO LIFT INTO THE OHIO VALLEY FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY...THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. LCZ460-282015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kdtx 281914
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
314 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017

Discussion
12z dtx sounding revealed stout low level inversion at 900 mb, which
has been able to sustain clouds thus far with the low level
northeast flow coming off lake huron. However, afternoon mixing and
lowering inversion heights is supporting a north-south clearing
tread over the central great lakes, which should continue into the
early evening hours. Weak shortwave trough passing through the
northern great lakes early this evening, with cold air filtering in
overnight (925/850 mb temps lowering into negative low to mid
numbers over lake huron), which looks to support a redevelopment of
lake huron stratus (although significant differences noted in 925 mb
rh fields between nam/gfs/hiresarw/euro), pushing inland during the
day on Wednesday, as differential heating leads to increasing
northeast flow, and potential low/circulation developing (see
regional gem).

Between clouds and northeast flow off lake huron, looks like there
will be a significant range in MAX temps, from mid 40s across the
far north, to low-mid 50s across the far southwest, farthest removed
from lake huron. Once again, afternoon mixing/boundary layer depths
increasing expected to dissipate low clouds late, but warm advection
mid/high clouds should then be on the increase ahead of our next
storm system. Low level thermal profiles will be borderline as
precipitation overspreads southeast michigan Wednesday night-
Thursday morning, as it looks like a narrow/700 mb fgen band could
break out/develop as good surge of moisture takes place, with 700 mb
specific humidity climbing to 5 g/kg by Thursday morning.

Interestingly, the 12z NAM is one of the driest solutions with the
low level dry air holding into Thursday for most of southeast
michigan. Meanwhile, 12z euro is one of the more aggressive
solutions in terms of qpf, but 1000-850 mb thicknesses all above
1305 m along and south of i-69 corridor, suggesting all rain. Bottom
line, expecting mainly a rain event as surface temps in the 30s
Wednesday night climb into the 40s on Thursday, but a brief period
of snow is possible late Wednesday night-Thursday morning, mainly
north of m-59 if precipitation rates are sufficiently high enough to
wet bulb/saturate the initially above freezing warm layer (2-6 kft
per NAM soundings). If that narrow but potentially intense 700 mb
fgen materializes, a narrow swath of wet snow accumulation is
possible for Thursday morning commute, best shot along and north of
i-69 corrdidor, but local SREF weighted probablistic guidance
suggests rain, with low chance of snow north of i-69.

Low pressure pushing east across northern ohio will bring the
continued chance for rain on Friday as it pushes east into new
england. The chance for rain is expected to diminish through the late
morning and afternoon hours, as a surface high starts to edge in
from the west. The weekend looks to be shaping up to be a nice one,
as cloud cover gradually diminishes and temperatures warm-up slightly
into the mid- 50s for a high. Temperatures are expected to climb
into the upper 50s to lower 60s for the early half of next week as se
winds usher in milder air.

Low pressure pushing NE from texas into the ohio valley Monday into
Tuesday will bring the next chance for rain. There are slight
variations regarding the track of the low, however, long-range
models are showing convergence regarding precipitation Monday night
into Tuesday. Additional rain showers will be possible as a second
low develops from the central plains into michigan Tuesday into
Wednesday. Confidence is much lower regarding this system as the gem
holds off on this potential system until late next week.

Marine
Existing moderate northerly flow /15 to 20 kts/ over the southern
lake huron basin will gradually ease tonight as high pressure starts
to build into the region. Winds will hold from the northeast
through Wednesday as this high settles in. Wind speeds will remain
more modest during this time. Winds will strengthen out of the east
beginning Thursday as the region settles between this high pressure
system and approaching low pressure. A period of moderate winds
will continue through Friday as this low tracks through the ohio
valley. The increased gustiness and prolonged onshore flow will
likely result in small craft advisory conditions during this time.

Gusts over the lake huron openwaters currently expected to peak at
around 30 knots.

Hydrology
Moisture will expand into the region on Thursday as low pressure
tracks into the ohio valley. This will result in widespread
rainfall Thursday and Thursday night. Rainfall may linger through
early Friday. At this time, rainfall amounts are forecast to range
between 0.5 and 0.75 inches. The potential for locally upwards of
an inch will be possible.

Prev discussion
Issued at 109 pm edt Tue mar 28 2017
aviation...

extensive MVFR stratus sustained under a colder and sufficiently
moist north-northeast flow will remain prevalent through the latter
half the daylight period, augmented by diurnal heating. Drier air
working southward across lake huron this afternoon will begin to
encroach on the southeast michigan terminals this evening. This in
combination with the loss of diurnal support should support a
gradually clearing trend tonight. Lower confidence yet on the exact
timing, but recent model guidance continues to favors this process
unfolding 02z-06z. Expanding high pressure will then maintain a
generally clear sky across the lowest 10k ft into Wednesday.

For dtw... MVFR stratus to hold tight through the latter half of the
daylight period. Arrival of drying air will allow skies to
eventually clear tonight, currently timed around midnight.

Maintenance of 7-10 kt wind from a northerly direction will continue
through this evening. Winds speeds ease slightly overnight.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet through this evening. Low after
midnight.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Mr
hydrology... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi39 min N 8.9 G 15 47°F 1019 hPa (+0.4)
AGCM4 13 mi51 min 45°F 1018.2 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi51 min 40°F 1019.1 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi51 min NE 25 G 28 36°F 1019.2 hPa34°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
-12
PM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last
24hr
W6
NW3
E9
NE10
N10
N11
N16
NE13
NE13
N14
N16
N17
N16
N18
G22
NE18
N13
G20
N18
NE17
NE20
NE23
NE17
NE21
NE24
1 day
ago
S10
G13
S8
S7
S7
S11
G14
S8
G11
S8
G11
S6
G11
SW5
G9
SW8
SW6
G9
SW6
G9
SW7
G10
SW9
G12
SW6
SW5
SW7
G11
SW9
SW10
G13
SW7
G11
SW5
SW7
G13
W7
G11
W8
G11
2 days
ago
E13
G17
E7
G10
E10
E12
E9
E9
NE8
E9
E7
E7
G10
E5
E4
E2
E4
G8
E4
G7
S3
G6
E5
SE6
G11
SE9
S5
G8
N10
NE4
NE4
SE7
G10

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi1.7 hrsN 1310.00 miPartly Cloudy50°F40°F72%1018.2 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI19 mi46 minNNW 12 G 1910.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F37°F63%1019 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
Last 24hrW5SE4CalmNE6N7N6E6NE6NE9NE11N10N9N7N10N9N10N12N14N14N13N15N11N13N10
1 day agoSE4SE3SE5SE4SE4SE5SE4SE7S4CalmCalmCalmSW7SW3CalmSW5SW7SW8SW9W8SW9W6SW7SW8
2 days agoE11NE13E8E8E8E9E5E6E6NE6E5NE5E7CalmNW3NE7E5E5S4E6SE7E6E3SE5

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   RT Ports Option   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   Help
Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (17,4,5,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.