Saturday, July21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI

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Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:03PM Saturday July 21, 2018 11:14 PM EDT (03:14 UTC) Moonrise 2:50PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 949 Pm Edt Sat Jul 21 2018
Rest of tonight..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with scattered light showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Scattered light showers early in the morning. A chance of light showers in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots late in the evening...then becoming light and variable after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Light and variable winds. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday night..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves nearly calm.
Wednesday..Light and variable winds. Partly cloudy. A chance of light showers. Waves nearly calm.
Thursday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201807220815;;851175 FZUS63 KDTX 220149 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 949 PM EDT Sat Jul 21 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure, averaging 29.60 inches, will continue to slowly drift southeastward across lower Michigan tonight and into the northern Ohio River Valley by Sunday. As the center of this low settles south of the Ohio River late Sunday, a secondary low will be pulled northwest to around Lake Huron. This low will then stall over the area early next week as it steadily dissipates. LCZ460-220815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Village of Grosse Pointe Shores, MI
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location: 42.46, -82.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220100
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
900 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018

Update
A little better moisture influx already appears to be working into
southern ontario and the thumb region from the system now over the
delmarva. This has resulted in an enhancement in showers from
generally mt clemens north into the thumb region. Despite weak
instability with the lack of steep mid level lapse rates, there have
been a few lightning strikes within these showers. A forecast update
will be issued to increase shower coverage in this region this
evening as this moisture convergence is only going to slowly push
toward the northeast. The remainder of the forecast area (with the
exception of SW lenawee county) has remained dry this evening with a
bit of a mid level dry slot overhead. In the update, shower coverage
will be reduced a bit in this region.

Prev discussion
Issued at 659 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
aviation...

while the main region of instability shifted to the west of the
terminals late this afternoon, some modest diurnal destabilization
across southern ontario is bringing some additional showers isolated
thunder back into SE mi. With waning diurnal heating, the
expectation is that much of these showers will diminish. Can not
rule out a brief shower at the terminals this evening, chances are
just low. There has been some degree of diurnal contributions
upstream across northern ohio and portions of ontario which have
lifted cloud bases and suggests a high degree of variability in cigs
through the remainder of the evening. Some subtle low level cooling
(sub 3k ft) is likely to result in a shallow low level inversion
late tonight. Given the degree of lingering low level moisture, this
will increase the chances for a more prevailing MVFR strato CU field
to take hold late tonight into Sun morning.

For dtw... Upstream radar trends suggest the better chances for any
residual higher intensity showers will remain well to the north of
the terminal this evening.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate in ceilings at or below 5000 ft tonight and Sunday.

* low in thunderstorms tonight and Sunday.

Prev discussion...

issued at 252 pm edt Sat jul 21 2018
discussion...

showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will remain prevalent into
early evening as low pressure settles southeast from southwest lower
michigan into the northern ohio valley and moisture continues to
funnel northwest into the area within broad southeasterly flow
around this cyclonic circulation. While the chance of showers (and
isolated thunder) persists into the overnight hours, coverage and
generally intensity will decrease substantially with the loss of
diurnal late day heating. With the continued influx of moist low
level air during the overnight, low temperatures will remain mild in
the mid to upper 60s.

Shower chances will have to be increased to some degree on Sunday as
secondary low pressure wraps back west northwest towards the region
from the DELMARVA to near lake huron as the circulation of the
current low pressure center settles southeast of the ohio river.

Model solutions remain widely divergent as to the exact amount of
moisture that will make it back this far west, but scattered shower
with isolated thunder seems a pretty good bet, particularly over the
northern half of the forecast area where lift forcing from this
system will be strongest. Will also decrease temperatures given the
expectation of more overcast conditions.

Isolated showers will be possible again on Monday as this second low
stalls and dissipates in the vicinity. Temperatures will remain very
pleasant for late july given the mostly cloudy skies that should
remain in place with this system. Highs will range in the upper 70s
to lower 80s across the forecast area.

The extended forecast still remains in low confidence in chance of
precipitation terms. Weak ridging still looks to hang around,
however a trough axis is also forecasted to be close by. The area
is forecasted to stay mostly dry through the week, with only some
slight chances for showers. Tuesday through Thursday are expected
to be the warmest as highs warm up into the mid to upper 80s.

Marine...

broad low pressure will drift southeastward into the northern ohio
river valley from tonight into Sunday. Unsettled conditions will
continue into tonight across most of the local waters with periodic
showers and isolated thunderstorms. However, coverage will decrease
with the loss of daytime heating. A second low pressure system will
track back northwest to near lake huron on Sunday, renewing the
chance of showers
meanwhile, will cancel small craft advisories for the lake huron
nearshore waters with the afternoon update as gusts have dropped to
20 knots or less and waves remain below advisory criterion. There is
a chance that wind gusts and waves will warrant a small craft
advisory over western lake erie on Sunday. However, the forecast
remains just shy so will forgo an advisory at this time, especially
given the short duration of even marginal advisory conditions.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Update... ... .Sc
aviation... ..Sc
discussion... Dg sp
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
45147 - Lake St Clair 2 mi74 min E 7.8 G 9.7 74°F 72°F1008.1 hPa (+0.4)
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 11 mi74 min NE 8 G 8.9 73°F 1009.5 hPa (+0.4)
AGCM4 13 mi44 min 70°F 1009.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 38 mi44 min 72°F 1009.8 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 40 mi44 min ESE 8 G 12 71°F 1009.9 hPa64°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI14 mi78 minENE 712.00 miMostly Cloudy71°F71°F100%1009 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI19 mi81 minENE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy72°F66°F82%1008.7 hPa

Wind History from MTC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7S8S9S8S9S10SE9SE11SE11SE13S11SE10SE8SE8SE9SE10E9SE13SE6SE4CalmNE4E7E9
1 day agoSE6E9E9E5E3E4E6E6E8SE8SE13S11S12SE13S19
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2 days agoNE4E8E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS9S11S9SE12SE11SE12SE12SE13SE13
G19
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.