Sunday, May19, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:16AMSunset 9:05PM Sunday May 19, 2019 6:45 AM EDT (10:45 UTC) Moonrise 9:03PMMoonset 6:05AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 406 Am Edt Sun May 19 2019
.small craft advisory in effect from noon edt today through Monday afternoon...
Early this morning..South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy with a chance of Thunderstorms and a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Today..South winds 10 to 20 knots veering southwest 20 to 25 knots. Rain showers with Thunderstorms likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 10 to 20 knots increasing to 30 knots toward daybreak. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of rain showers. Waves 3 to 5 feet.
Monday..Northwest winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots decreasing to around 5 knots late at night, then veering northeast toward daybreak. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tuesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots decreasing to 10 to 15 knots late in the day. Partly Sunny with a chance of rain showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ845 Expires:201905192000;;103661 FZUS53 KGRR 190806 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 406 AM EDT Sun May 19 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-192000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 190818
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
418 am edt Sun may 19 2019

Synopsis
Issued at 331 am edt Sun may 19 2019
- a few rounds of showers storms are expected today, with a threat
for damaging winds mainly from 4 - 10 pm.

- breezy conditions are possible this afternoon and especially
after dark with minor beach erosion and lakeshore flooding
possible at especially vulnerable locations.

- unseasonably cool conditions are expected Monday with frost
possible early Tuesday morning.

- an active pattern may resume mid- to late-next week.

Discussion (today through next Saturday)
issued at 331 am edt Sun may 19 2019
a compact negatively-tilted upper-level trough will enable a surface
low-pressure system currently over eastern iowa to continue
deepening this morning, inducing the development of a potent low-
level jet (850 mb flow of 50-60 kts). Signs of this process occuring
can be seen by an uptick in shower and thunderstorm activity in
southern missouri and parts of arkansas as of this writing. As the
low pressure system translates northeastward into southern
wisconsin this morning, the low-level jet will surge into lower
michigan with widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms
within an hours or two of daybreak. The thinking is that the
first batch won't pose much of a severe weather threat given
limited instability, at least in western lower michigan. The
position of the low-level jet will only slowly push eastward this
morning and early afternoon suggesting it may be hard to get rid
of first batch of activity (especially considering increasing
upper- level diffluence as a 500 mb speed MAX rounds the perimeter
of the upper-level trough), with showers and embedded
thunderstorms persisting perhaps well into the afternoon hours.

Regardless, the idea is still the first batch will eventually push
eastward sometime this afternoon giving western lower michigan a
short window of time to destabilize ahead of an approaching cold
front.

The severe weather threat will be maximized from 4 to 10 pm and is
conditional on whether we'll indeed have time to destabilize ahead of
the cold front. If the activity this morning early afternoon is not
as widespread as currently advertised and the modified form of a
compact elevated mixed layer (eml) currently in central oklahoma
(see the 00z oun lmn raobs) manages to make it to lower michigan
somewhat in tact, its feasibly we'll be able to develop 500-1000
j kg of mlcape. With forecast 0-6 km shear magnitudes pushing 60 kts
with a large component perpendicular to the frontal boundary, a
broken line of discrete cells is possible though it may be tough
for updrafts to survive the trip up as they tilt considerably
downshear without stronger lapse rates (e.G. Fat vs. Tall skinny
cape we'll have the latter). Nevertheless, the magnitude of 0-6 km
shear and 850 mb wind speeds in excess of 55 kts still leverages
concern for damaging winds with anything that can develop along
the cold front, with meager lapse rates serving as a detriment to
large hail production. The tornado threat is low owing to expected
unfavorable orientations of the storm motion and low-level shear
vectors, but should locally backed low-level flow develop ahead of
a storm, a brief weak tornado would become possible (again low
chance). It's also worth pointing out the storms will be flying
with translational speeds of 50 kts, meaning they'll sneak up on
you if outside. All in all, the severe weather threat is
definitely not zero; we'll just have to wait and see how the
activity this morning behaves.

The other thing to keep in mind is that if we do clear out ahead of
the cold front, we'll likely mix upward into the strong low-level
flow with non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-40 mph. Such a threat
will obviously depend on the morning activity with the most likely
scenario that we don't quite see those winds. Behind the front
overnight into early Monday, we are likely to see westerly winds of
30-35 mph, which may lead to minor beach erosion and lakeshore
flooding given much-above-average lake michigan water levels. We
considered hoisting lakeshore flood products with this forecast
package but held off as the forecasted wind speeds are *just* below
our trigger point of gale force winds (e.G. 40 mph gusts), but areas
that are particularly vulnerable (such as beach street in muskegon)
may be prone to flooding tonight especially if winds end up
slightly stronger than expected.

Looking beyond this weekend... Monday still looks unseasonable cool
with highs likely struggling to climb out of the 50s. Patchy frost
looks possible for interior sections of lower michigan early Tuesday
morning. Precipitation chances with a system around the Tuesday
night early Wednesday timeframe are trending downward as the main
forcing may remain west of our area with a surface high pressure
system pumping dry air westward from ontario. Forecast confidence
then lowers from the middle of next week onward as another
stationary front stalls somewhere in the central united states,
which will drive shower thunderstorm chances as well as
temperatures. Stay tuned.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Sunday night)
issued at 1200 am edt Sun may 19 2019
wind shear of 35-40 kts at 2000 ft will continue through daybreak
at all TAF sites but mkg, after which clouds and southerly winds
will increase. Showers with a few embedded thunderstorms are
expected generally between 16 and 19z with occasional ceiling and
visibility restrictions as handled by tempo groups. The forecast
from early afternoon onward is uncertain. The current idea is
that a brief period of dry weather is expected with gusty
southerly winds, perhaps gusting in excess of 30 kts. Some
maritime fog may skirt mkg during the late morning early afternoon
hours, but the strong wind speeds should limit any visibility or
ceiling restrictions. A band of showers and isolated thunderstorms
is then possible along a fast- moving frontal boundary between
generally 21 and 23z but coverage is expected to be scattered. For
now, opted to downgrade to vcsh given uncertainty in coverage,
but upgrades to tsra are possible in a later TAF package.

Confidence is then high in a sudden wind shift out of the
west southwest with the frontal passage after 23z, with gradually
decreasing wind speeds and increasing ceilings especially after
dark.

Marine
Issued at 331 am edt Sun may 19 2019
dense fog is possible especially toward the open water this morning
through evening. Gusty west winds are possible this afternoon and
especially tonight through the middle of Monday, with waves building
to 4-7 feet. As such, the small craft advisory has been left
unchanged in this forecast cycle. The combination of the persistent
westerly winds and waves may lead to minor beach erosion and
lakeshore flooding at especially vulnerable locations. Relatively
calm conditions are then expected through at least the middle of
next week.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory from noon today to 5 pm edt Monday for
lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Borchardt
discussion... Borchardt
aviation... Borchardt
marine... Borchardt


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi15 min SSE 9.9 G 11 67°F
45168 12 mi15 min S 9.7 G 12 60°F 48°F1 ft1004.8 hPa53°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi27 min SE 9.9 G 17 67°F 55°F1003.9 hPa58°F
45029 31 mi15 min E 7.8 G 9.7 56°F 44°F1 ft1004.4 hPa50°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi45 min S 4.1 G 8.9 69°F 1005.1 hPa (-1.7)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi15 min WSW 5.8 G 7.8 58°F 51°F1 ft1004.8 hPa53°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi15 min SE 11 G 13 64°F 1004 hPa58°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi50 minSSE 310.00 miOvercast66°F59°F80%1004.7 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi52 minSE 610.00 miMostly Cloudy62°F57°F84%1004.6 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE6SE6SE6S9SE7S4S6
G15
W8SW5SW3W13
G19
SE6SE3SW4N4CalmCalmCalmE4SE5CalmSE3Calm
1 day agoCalmNE6NE9E5S4NW4NW6NW7CalmNE5CalmW7W4W4W4CalmCalmCalmE4E4CalmCalmCalmE7
2 days agoCalmS6S6SW11
G19
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SW6SW9SW5S11
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CalmCalmCalmNW6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (6,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.