Monday, August20, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Breedsville, MI

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Sunrise 6:55AMSunset 8:39PM Monday August 20, 2018 5:07 AM EDT (09:07 UTC) Moonrise 3:52PMMoonset 12:49AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 400 Am Edt Mon Aug 20 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening...
Today..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday..South winds 10 to 20 knots. Then becoming north to 30 knots late in the day. Showers and Thunderstorms likely until midday, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less building to 5 to 7 feet.
Tuesday night..North winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy. A slight chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201808201515;;934552 FZUS53 KGRR 200800 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 400 AM EDT Mon Aug 20 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-201515-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Breedsville, MI
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location: 42.46, -86.13     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 200730
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
latest update...

synopsis short term long term marine

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
low pressure will track across lake michigan tonight and move across
southern lower michigan on Tuesday. Clouds will thicken today in
advance of the low with showers and thunderstorms moving in from the
southwest late this afternoon. Periods of showers and thunderstorms
are expected both tonight and on Tuesday. Rainfall totals of around
an inch are possible in most areas. A period of dry weather is
expected from Wednesday through much of Friday as high pressure
slides slowly east through the great lakes. Another chance for
showers and storms will come Friday afternoon into Saturday as a
warm front pushes through the area. Temperatures will cool a bit
behind the early week system with highs in the 70s forecast for
Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday. Next weekend however the warm air
rushes back in with highs forecast to push well into the 80s if not
the 90s.

Short term (today through Wednesday)
issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
focus in the short term is squarely on the low that will traverse
the area tonight and Tuesday. The main impact from the system will
be a widespread rain, with locally heavy amounts possible. The rain
looks to come in somewhat of a one two punch with a warm air
advection surge tonight, followed by a deformation zone on Tuesday.

Models have been consistent in showing rainfall generally between
0.50 and 1.50 inches across the area. Where the warm air advection
rainfall overlaps with the deformation zone rain amounts may exceed
2.00 inches in that area. A bit difficult to nail down the area of
heaviest rain at this point. Wpc has a broad brushed area of
rainfall totals around an inch and cannot argue with that forecast
at this point.

Thunderstorms will be in the mix as MUCAPE values eclipse the 1000
j kg level. Not expecting anything close to severe as this system
will be more of a rain producer. Thunderstorms looks possible from
about 21z this afternoon through Tuesday evening.

Otherwise, clouds will thicken through the day with showers and
storms moving in from the southwest this afternoon. Behind the
system, a few showers may linger into Tuesday night before the
moisture declines and we clear out into Wednesday. High temperatures
on Wednesday will be very comfortable by august standards in the
middle 70s.

Long term (Wednesday night through Sunday)
issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
the long term will start out quiet as surface high pressure drifts
through the area from Wednesday night through Friday morning.

Temperatures will be seasonable Thursday and Friday with highs near
80.

A more active period will occur from Friday afternoon through Friday
night and into Saturday as a warm front moves through the great
lakes. Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany this frontal
passage. The warm front will usher in a surge of much warmer air.

850mb temps rise to in excess of +20c in both the GFS and ECMWF on
Sunday which would yield highs above 90f. For now our forecast for
Sunday has 80s, but this may need to be bumped higher with time.

Aviation (for the 06z tafs through 06z Monday night)
issued at 1145 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
vfr conditions will slowly deteriorate to a mix ofVFR MVFR with
patchy ifr possible during the early morning hours Monday due to
the development of patchy fog and some low clouds. Conditions will
then improve toVFR by mid morning as low clouds patchy fog
dissipates.VFR conditions will then continue through Monday
afternoon.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will gradually move in from
the southwest and likely affect all of the terminals Monday
evening. Brief reductions to ifr MVFR are possible as storms and
heavier showers move through.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Mon aug 20 2018
lake michigan is going to look a lot more like fall the next 48
hours as winds and waves kick up to autumn type levels. Low pressure
centered over northern missouri early this Monday morning will track
east-northeast and move across southern lake michigan tonight. As
the low moves northeast into ontario, stronger north winds will fill
in down lake michigan in the wake of the passage of the low. Winds
look to increase to 20 to 30 knots Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday
night. We are expecting some gale force gusts, but at this time we
think it will be limited and not worthy of a gale warning. Tuesday
afternoon and evening will be the time frame of strongest winds and
the time frame we will be watching for potential gales.

Air temperatures over the lake will be in the 60s, with water temps
well into the 70s so this will be a cold air advection event, much
like a fall system. Waves will likely build into the 6 to 10 foot
range in our nearshore waters during the height of the wind.

We will be posting both small craft advisories and beach hazards
statements from Tuesday midday through Wednesday afternoon and
evening. The winds and waves hit the northern zones first (15z tues)
and the south a bit later (18z tues). Headlines will run until 18z
wed in the north and 00z thurs in the south. The break point will be
at grand haven.

Piers will be places to avoid during the largest waves as high water
levels will allow waves to completely wash over the pier surface.

The public should avoid pier structures Tuesday into Wednesday.

Swimming will be hazardous as the short period wind waves will be
about as large as they ever get in the heart of the swim season.

When in doubt don't go out.

Hydrology
Issued at 324 pm edt Sun aug 19 2018
significant rainfall is possible Monday night and Tuesday. An inch
to an inch and a half of rain is possible during this time. Within
bank rises are possible by mid week on area rivers. Additionally,
locally heavy rainfall could create ponding on roads and other low
lying areas.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... Beach hazards statement from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for miz056-064-071.

Beach hazards statement from Tuesday morning through Wednesday
afternoon for miz037-043-050.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 11 am Tuesday to 2 pm edt Wednesday
for lmz847>849.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm Tuesday to 8 pm edt Wednesday for
lmz844>846.

Synopsis... Duke
short term... Duke
long term... Duke
aviation... Laurens
hydrology... 04
marine... Duke


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 9 mi37 min E 7 G 9.9 68°F
45168 12 mi27 min SE 5.8 G 7.8 69°F 74°F1 ft1015 hPa62°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 22 mi43 min E 11 G 17 70°F 1014.6 hPa70°F
45029 31 mi27 min ESE 9.7 G 14 71°F 75°F1 ft1014.7 hPa63°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 32 mi67 min NE 1 G 6 69°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.7)
45026 - St. Joseph, MI 42 mi27 min E 12 G 16 71°F 77°F1 ft1014.5 hPa63°F
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 54 mi27 min ESE 6 G 8.9 69°F 1014.9 hPa63°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
South Haven, South Haven Area Regional Airport, MI10 mi72 minESE 510.00 miFair67°F63°F88%1015.2 hPa
Holland - West Michigan Regional Airport, MI20 mi74 minN 09.00 miFair65°F62°F90%1015.4 hPa

Wind History from LWA (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W7NW5NW7N5E3E3CalmCalmCalmE4E4SE4E4SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmN6NW6NW7N6NW8N5N8NW10
G14
N5N4N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmNE3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmW4W8NW4N6N7N4NW7N5N4NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (5,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.