Tuesday, May23, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:49AMSunset 8:44PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 2:51 AM EDT (06:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:40AMMoonset 5:07PM Illumination 6% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 958 Pm Edt Mon May 22 2017
Overnight..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday..South winds 10 knots or less becoming northeast. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming east. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..East winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night..Southeast winds 15 to 20 knots becoming east. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms in the evening...then showers overnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Showers likely during the day...then a chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Saturday..South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201705230830;;054724 FZUS61 KCLE 230158 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 958 PM EDT MON MAY 22 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE 30.00 INCHES OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST AND MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW LOW PRESSURE OF 29.40 INCHES TO MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER LAKES WEDNESDAY. THE LOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST AND MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY. LEZ061-167>169-230830-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230619
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
219 am edt Tue may 23 2017

Synopsis
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring dry weather today through
most of Wednesday with temperatures above normal. Low pressure will
then bring more rain to the region Wednesday night and Thursday with
temperatures closer to normal.

Near term /through today/
A weak ridge of high pressure surface and aloft will continue to
shift over the lower great lakes this morning. Subsidence and drying
associated with this high will continue to support mainly clear
skies. The clear skies and a fairly cool airmass will allow for some
radiational cooling with low temperatures in the upper 40s to around
50 on the lake plains, with low to mid 40s in the cooler sections of
the interior southern tier and lewis county.

The weak surface ridge stretched from the upper ohio valley to new
england will slowly shift northeast. Warm air advection and a weak
mid level shortwave will move northeast across southern ontario with
little direct impact on our area although it will bring scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of the canadian border. While we
will remain dry today, the shortwave will bring some increase in
moisture and cloud cover, with both mid level clouds and diurnal
cumulus developing across the region. Stable lake shadows will allow
more sunshine northeast of lakes erie and ontario. Temperatures will
rebound, with highs in the lower to mid 70s away from lake
influences. Weak synoptic scale flow and strong differential heating
will allow local lake breezes to develop with winds becoming onshore
along all the shorelines in the afternoon, keeping temperatures
cooler within a few miles of the lakes.

Short term /tonight through Thursday night/
Bubble of high pressure becoming centered across new england will
maintain dry weather across the area through the first half of
Wednesday. Overnight lows Tuesday night will fall back into the
upper 40s to lower 50s.

High pressure will exit the region Wednesday as a deepening surface
low slowly tracks into the ohio valley. Model tracks differ
slightly, but most of the guidance eventually tracks this low across
ohio Wednesday night and across lake erie on Thursday. Increasing
moisture transport and lift on the front side of the approaching low
will eventually allow precipiation to blossom across the area. Onset
time may be slowed a bit from continuity based on slower track of
approaching surface low. Warm air advection and slower timing of
precipitation onset should allow high temperatures Wednesday to
reach the lower to mid 70s.

Does look like there will be at least a solid 6 to 12 hour period of
fairly steady rain starting late Wednesday in the far west and
filling in across the rest of the area through Thursday. The steady
rain should taper to more showery weather by Thursday night as the
surface low starts to shift east of the area.

Long term /Friday through Monday/
Our region will be under the influence of a progressive... Northern
branch of a split flow during this period. While this will allow for
fairly frequent shower activity... A closed off gomex will keep
rainfall amounts to a minimum. This pattern will also keep
temperatures from straying too far from normal... But on average...

they will tend to run a few degrees above typical late may values.

Breaking this down on a day to day basis...

a stacked storm system over eastern new york Friday morning will
exit across new england during the afternoon and evening. This will
keep some showers in place over our region... Particularly east of
lake ontario where pops will be raised to likely. Temperatures on
Friday will climb into the 60s.

Ridging will build across the lower great lakes late Friday night
and Saturday. While the models are not convinced that dry weather
will prevail during this time frame... Am fairly confident that the
aforementioned ridging and lack of mid level moisture will translate
into fair dry conditions. This should also help Saturday afternoon
temperatures climb into the 70s across most of the western counties.

As the ridge pushes east of our region Sunday and Monday... The next
longwave trough will dig across the upper portions of the
mississippi valley and great lakes region. This will result in
deteriorating conditions... Particularly late Sunday into Monday. In
other words... As it stands now we should be able to get through most
of Sunday before the skies 'open' again. Given the inconsistencies
between the medium range ensembles though... Confidence is lower than
normal.

Aviation /06z Tuesday through Saturday/
A weak ridge of high pressure will build over the lower great lakes
region through today and tonight withVFR. Weak warm advection and
diurnal cumulus will bring some increase in cloud cover as a
disturbance moves north of lake ontario but CIGS will remainVFR
with light southwest winds. The high pressure will continue to bring
vfr and fair weather through tonight.

Outlook...

Wednesday...VFR.

Wednesday night...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Thursday...VFR/MVFR with showers likely.

Friday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.

Saturday... MainlyVFR.

Marine
Weak high pressure will build over the lower great lakes today
through Wednesday, providing light winds and light wave action
through the middle of the week. A storm system will pass over our
region Wednesday night through Friday but winds and waves will
remain below advisory levels.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Smith
near term... Church/hitchcock/smith
short term... Tma
long term... Rsh
aviation... Smith
marine... Smith


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi52 min S 6 G 9.9
45167 25 mi92 min SSW 9.7 G 12 58°F 56°F1 ft
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi52 min S 8 G 11 55°F 1015.1 hPa (-1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi52 min 52°F 1014.5 hPa (-1.2)
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi52 min SSW 12 G 14 57°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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S12
S10
G14
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G15
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G12
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G17
SW17
G22
SW16
G22
SW18
G25
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G24
SW28
SW19
G26
W17
G21
SW11
G16
SW11
G15
SW5
G10
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G7
1 day
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NE5
E6
G9
E6
E4
G7
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S3
N2
E3
NE3
NE2
NW4
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NE2
W1
SE6
S10
G16
S10
G13
S9
S11
G16
S13
G19
S12
G19
S9
G15
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G11
S5
2 days
ago
NE8
G15
NE8
G12
NE6
G12
NE8
G15
E8
G13
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G15
E7
G13
NE9
G15
NE9
G14
E8
G12
NE7
G13
NE9
G18
NE13
G19
NE15
G20
NE9
G17
E8
G13
E12
G17
E9
G17
E7
G14
E10
G14
E5
NE6
G9

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi59 minSSW 910.00 miFair55°F44°F67%1014.9 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS12
G21
S12
G20
S13S11W6SW12
G21
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G20
SW17
G24
SW14
G26
SW21
G32
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G31
W17
G30
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G30
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G24
SW11
G18
SW10SW8SW7SW4SW5S7S7S9
1 day agoCalmSE6SE12
G15
SE8SE10CalmNW6CalmS8S7S15
G20
S11S13
G16
S10S14
G18
S9S19
G25
S19
G25
S17
G28
S16
G25
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G26
S21
G28
S19
G26
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G27
2 days agoNE6NE9NE9NE8NE9NE11
G17
NE11NE14NE14
G19
E12
G17
NE13N14N15N15NE15NE17
G26
NE11
G22
NE3E8N5E8SE8SE9
G17
SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.