Sunday, March26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 7:41PM Sunday March 26, 2017 4:45 PM EDT (20:45 UTC) Moonrise 5:33AMMoonset 5:09PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 355 Pm Edt Sun Mar 26 2017
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Showers with a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of rain showers in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east. A chance of showers in the evening. Showers likely overnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 knots or less becoming north 5 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely in the morning...then a chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday night..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming north. A chance of rain showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..East winds 10 to 20 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely. Waves 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201703270230;;120437 FZUS61 KCLE 261955 GLFLE OPEN LAKE FORECAST FOR LAKE ERIE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 355 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017 FOR WATERS BEYOND FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE ERIE .SYNOPSIS...A WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.80 INCHES WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...29.80 INCHES...WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL PULL A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE LAKE BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.60 INCHES WILL PASS NORTH OF THE LAKES FROM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE OF 29.50 INCHES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION ON FRIDAY. LEZ061-168-169-270230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
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location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 261925
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
325 pm edt Sun mar 26 2017

Synopsis
A weak system will move northeast through the great lakes region
tonight with another round or two of rain along with some
embedded thunderstorms. Some rain may last into Monday, but in
general expect drying trend. Another relatively weak system will
move through on Tuesday. Drier and cooler weather will arrive
for Wednesday and Thursday. Showers will return Friday and last
through the weekend.

Near term /through Monday/
The upper level pattern over the us features a cutoff low near
chicago this afternoon with another one on its heals near the tx
panhandle. Both are embedded a broad but weak upper level
longwave ridge and will therefore have minimal impact over
western and central ny over the next few days, although both
will bring some short-lived periods of rain and the possibility
of thunderstorms
through tonight... The main concern is focused over the chicago
low with a weak surface reflection. There are three troughs
rotating around this low. The first of the three troughs will
move through this evening and will be denoted as a warm front.

But, surface temperatures will vary little with its passage with
most of the warmth remaining aloft while the surface remains
under an inversion. There may be some convection with this
boundary as they move into western ny, but the thick inversion
should keep any winds aloft from mixing down to the surface.

Winds aloft MAX are not too impressive anyway as they MAX out at
about 40kts. The 2nd trough will follow quickly with a similar
scenario - a band of showers with the possibility of
thunderstorms over wny. Both band should continue ene overnight
and weaken a little with a diminishing threat for thunderstorms
toward central ny.

Despite the inversion, temperatures climbed to 60f in the
downslope area of wny while other areas remain in the 40s or
lower 50s this afternoon. Some of this warmth will be lost as
the inversion strengthens together with the loss of daylight,
but overall expect a relatively warm night - mostly in the
40s... A little cooler toward the eastern lake ontario region.

Monday... The third trough marks the cold front. This feature
should be rather weak as a result and may come through dry or
only with some scattered showers sometime on Monday. The front
erase the warm air aloft, but at the surface expect little
temperature variation from the front itself. In fact with some
mixing, temperatures should again climb into the 50s across most
areas, and touching the 60f mark over downslope regions south
of lake ontario (but away from the shoreline).

Short term /Monday night through Tuesday night/
While initially dry Monday evening, as a narrow ridge of high
pressure moves across the region, late Monday night into Tuesday
morning will see increasing coverage of rain showers as an open
trough tracks through ohio valley to off the northeast coast by
Tuesday afternoon. This will result in a few hours of showers moving
across the region, with a drying trend from west to east across the
region by Tuesday afternoon. Increased pops to categorical, with
most all locations picking some light rain on Tuesday, however it is
important to stress that Tuesday looks to be far from a washout,
with plenty of dry time as showers taper off. Highs on Tuesday will
range from the upper 40s in the north country to the upper 50s in
the southern tier as cooler air moves in from the north behind the
trough passage.

Tuesday night through Thursday will finally bring a stretch of dry
weather to region as a sprawling high pressure system builds in
across the great lakes. Temperatures will moderate to near seasonal
normals, with highs mainly in the 40s and low in the 20s/30s.

Long term /Wednesday through Sunday/
The pattern will become more active again by the end of the week
after a few dry days. A mid level closed low will meander across the
four corners region during the first half of the week, then eject
ene across the central plains to the ohio valley by Friday.

Increasing warm advection and moisture transport ahead of this
trough will bring a chance of a few showers Thursday night mainly in
western ny. Rain chances will then increase Friday and Friday night
as the deep mid level trough and associated surface low cross the
region. The system will be filling with time, which generally keeps
forcing and moisture transport on the weaker side which will in
turn keep rain amounts relatively modest.

This system will slowly pull out next weekend, with a few scattered
showers lingering into Saturday as the trough and surface low move
to the east coast, with northwest flow and wrap around moisture
hanging back across the lower great lakes. Moisture and rain chances
should diminish by Sunday as the trough moves well off the eastern
seaboard.

Temperatures will likely run a little above average through the
period, with highs generally in the low to mid 50s and lows in the
30s.

Aviation /20z Sunday through Friday/
One or two bands or showers with some thunderstorms will move
toward far western ny late this afternoon from the oh valley.

Expect a broken line or lines to continue moving across the
genesee valley and into the eastern lake ontario region
overnight. There will be an increasing chance for MVFR and some
ifr conditions from CIGS with the passage of these
showers... Particularly in the hilly terrain toward the pa
border. Expect a decreasing chance for showers on Monday with
slowly improving conditions toVFR areawide.

Outlook...

Tuesday... MVFR/ifr CIGS with periods of rain.

Wednesday and Thursday...VFR.

Marine
Winds will veer to southeast and then southerly as an area of
low pressure tracks across the central great lakes and towards
nw lake ontario. As these winds veer, they will increase some on
the eastern half of lake ontario, such that low end SCA wind
thresholds will be met and last through tonight.

The relatively weak low will move northeast of lake ontario
Monday, and in its weaken state, and warm air over the cold lake
waters, both winds and waves should remain below SCA criteria.

Buf watches/warnings/advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for loz042-
043.

Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Monday for loz044-045.

Synopsis... Zaff
near term... Zaff
short term... Church
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Zaff
marine... Zaff


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi45 min S 6 G 11
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi45 min SSE 6 G 13 1015.3 hPa (-2.8)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi45 min 62°F 1015.6 hPa (-2.7)
CBLO1 - Conneaut Breakwater Light, OH 51 mi45 min SSW 19 G 23 1013.2 hPa (-2.7)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Last
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E9
G18
E7
G17
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G13
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G21
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NE12
G20
E9
G18
E8
G15
E12
G16
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G17
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NE6
G13
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G13
NE6
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G12
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NE7
G10
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G8
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NW3
SE8
S12
S12
G16
1 day
ago
SW20
SW12
S11
SW9
S3
G6
NE13
G16
N13
G18
NE7
G14
E6
G10
NE4
G9
NE7
G10
N8
NE10
G14
NE11
G15
NE5
G13
NE8
G16
NE14
G17
NE12
G18
NE9
G14
NE9
G15
E9
G13
NE10
G14
E8
G13
NE9
G16
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ago
W3
NW2
NW5
E4
G7
E7
G12
E10
G14
E10
G14
E5
G9
SE5
G8
SE3
SE1
SE1
S15
S10
G13
S7
E4
G7
SE5
S5
SW3
SW9
SW6
SW7
S5
SW11
G15

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi52 minSSE 11 G 1610.00 miFair59°F46°F62%1015.9 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE9NE11NE9E11NE10NE10NE12NE11NE10NE8NE10NE10NE10NE8NE5NE5E3NW3N4CalmS17
G21
SE10
G21
SE13
G18
S11
G16
1 day agoW9
G21
SW9SW9SW12SW11N15
G23
E4N9N12NE4N9NE7N6N6N8NE8N11NE14N11NE11NE8E8N9NE12
2 days agoN7N5NE6E5E3E3CalmNW4S13
G19
S18
G25
S20
G29
S20
G27
S10
G21
S12S20
G25
S18
G26
S18
G27
S16
G23
S13S10W7
G19
SW19
G28
SW21
G27
W10
G17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.