Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ripley, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:50AMSunset 8:43PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:02 PM EDT (17:02 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:52AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LEZ040 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1218 Pm Edt Thu May 23 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 pm edt this evening...
This afternoon..Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 4 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Friday..West winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds 10 knots or less becoming south. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming southeast. A chance of showers Monday night. Waves 1 foot or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ040 Expires:201905232100;;335543 FZUS51 KBUF 231618 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1218 PM EDT Thu May 23 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-232100-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ripley, NY
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.48, -79.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus61 kbuf 231634
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1234 pm edt Thu may 23 2019

Synopsis
Showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will cross the region
today... Ahead of a cold front that will sweep across the area
later this afternoon and early this evening. In the wake of the
front... Cooler... Less humid... And generally dry conditions will
follow for Friday. The next weather system will bring more
showers to our area Friday night, followed by additional showers
and thunderstorms Saturday.

Near term through tonight
As of 1230 pm... The prefrontal trough and its attendant convective
line has pushed into the finger lakes and weakened considerably
since earlier this morning. Based on this and collaboration with
spc... The severe thunderstorm watch has been cancelled from monroe
and livingston counties westward. Meanwhile... The watch still
remains in effect from wayne and ontario counties over to oswego
county... Where some redevelopment along out ahead of the leading
edge of the convection cannot be ruled out through 2 pm.

Behind the prefrontal trough... Some additional convective
redevelopment remains possible this afternoon into early this
evening from interior portions of the southern tier northeastward
across interior portions of the finger lakes out ahead of the
approaching cold front... With this conditional upon sufficient
destabilization in the wake of the prefrontal trough. Should this
occur... The highly sheared environment would still be supportive
of a more localized severe threat across this particular region...

with damaging winds the primary concern. Further north across the
niagara frontier and lower genesee valley... Developing expanding
lake shadowing northeast of lake erie should preclude much of any
additional severe weather risk.

Before the cold front crosses the region, strong southwesterly winds
are expected across lake erie shoreline and across the niagara
frontier, and towards monroe county. Gusts to 45 mph are likely
outside the cooler lake dome of air, with gusts diminishing this
evening with the lowering mixing heights. The deepening surface low
passing to the north of lake ontario will maintain a decent pressure
gradient through the night, with winds now veering to a west to
northwest direction. Gusts 20 to 30 mph will be possible tonight.

The cold front will cross the region late this afternoon and
evening, ending the convection threat and also bringing lowering
humidity values tonight. Behind the upper level shortwave, a few up
slope rain showers may linger east of lake ontario through the
night, otherwise the region will be mainly dry. Lows tonight will
drop back into the lower 50s.

Short term Friday through Saturday night
Shortwave trough and sfc low responsible for stormy day today starts
off on Friday over northern new england. Lingering cold air aloft
and 925-850mb moisture closer to the departing trough aloft should
support isold showers sprinkles over north county through most of
the day. Otherwise, will be a good deal of stratocu into late
morning early afternoon before brief clearing takes place. High
temps on Friday will tumble back below normal, with 60s in most
locations. Steady w-nw winds and later departure of clouds will keep
lake ontario shoreline and north country slightly cooler with
readings in the upper 50s.

Upper level ridging briefly passes overhead into Friday evening but
mid to high clouds will quickly be on the increase in right entrance
region of departing upper jet and on nose of approaching jet over
the upper great lakes. Models have trended slower with arrival of
showers overnight on Friday night as theta-e advection moisture
transport ramps up ahead of main low-level low over the upper great
lakes and northern ontario. Sfc warm front slides across on Saturday
with weaker cold front following later Saturday night. Convergence
along the front, along with any weak convectively induced shortwaves
rolling through and persistent divergence aloft from right entrance
region of upper jet should support multiple clusters of showers and
thunderstorms. Think most widespread activity will occur north of
the warm front, closer to lake ontario and into the north country,
as that is where moisture transport is maximized and where edge of
elevated CAPE of 500-1000 j kg is located. Elsewhere across western
ny and the genesee valley toward the finger lakes may end up seeing
more scattered showers and tsra due to mlcapes up to 750j kg and
strong effective shear over 50 kts. Would like to see more in way of
instability to counter such strong shear for more widespread severe,
but certainly could see at least an isold severe threat on Saturday.

After a cool day on Friday, temps on Saturday will push well into
the 70s to near 80f depending on extent of any breaks in the cloud
cover. Will feel a touch more humid on Saturday as well with td
climbing back into the 60s.

Cold front sliding through on Saturday night will allow showers and
storms to gradually diminish, though could see some rain hanging on
along the southern tier and possibly the north country as the cold
front more or less becomes parallel to the upper level flow. Low
temperatures will only fall off into the upper 50s to lower 60s, so
still a rather muggy night.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
A cold front settling just to the south and east of the area Sunday
will keep the risk for a few showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms
in across the southern tier, finger lakes and north country. A
slightly cooler day than Saturday is expected, but still should have
plenty of temperatures in the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure building in from southeast ontario behind the front
Sunday night and then settling across region by memorial day. This
should bring a break between rain chances.

Tuesday and Wednesday, ridging building over the southeast conus
will increase mid-level heights across the region allowing the old
frontal boundary to return northward as a warm front. Model timing
differences on this exist, but still looking at unsettled weather
through mid week. Depending on the exact northward movement of the
front, more humid and warmer air will be sent northward into the
region with the potential for much more summer-like temperatures.

Aviation 18z Thursday through Tuesday
As of 1630z... A prefrontal trough and its attendant convective line
has pushed into the finger lakes and weakened considerably since
earlier this morning. This will continue translating eastward across
the remainder of the region through the rest of the afternoon.

Behind the prefrontal trough... Some additional convective
redevelopment remains possible this afternoon into early this
evening from interior portions of the southern tier northeastward
across interior portions of the finger lakes out ahead of the
approaching cold front... With this conditional upon sufficient
destabilization in the wake of the prefrontal trough. Should this
occur... The convection could be supportive of some locally strong
wind gusts to 40-50 knots.

Behind the storms a cold front will sweep across the region. Wind
gusts this afternoon may near 35 or greater knots for kbuf kiag and
kroc. Cold air advection behind the front will continue breezy
westerly winds tonight. Lingering moisture will also lead to the
formation of a deck of MVFR range stratus across much of the taf
region by the end of Friday night.

Outlook...

Friday...VFR. A chance of showers Friday night.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance
of thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
A prefrontal trough and attendant line of showers and thunderstorms
will cross the region from west to east between late this morning
and this afternoon. The storms will be capable of locally strong
wind gusts and higher waves as the pass through.

In the wake of the prefrontal trough... Southwest winds will increase
through the afternoon hours as an area of low pressure deepens and
passes to the north of lake ontario. Southwest winds will increase
to 15 to 20 knots on lake erie and the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower great lakes this evening,
with now a more westerly flow on the lakes. This will increase
waves... Especially on lake ontario where 4 feet or greater waves
will be possible. A SCA will be issued for the southeastern
shoreline of lake ontario tonight through early Friday morning.

Tides coastal flooding
A cold front will cross lake ontario early this evening, with
surface low pressure tracking eastward across southern canada.

Behind this front westerly winds will increase tonight, that
will produce higher waves on lake ontario. The increase in
westerly winds will bring higher waves on lake ontario,
combining with very high lake levels to bring an increased risk
of lakeshore flooding on the east half of lake ontario, between
wayne and oswego counties. Winds will diminish Friday with the
departure of the surface low over eastern canada.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Lakeshore flood watch from late tonight through Friday morning
for nyz004>006.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez020-
040-041.

Small craft advisory until 11 am edt Friday for
loz043.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Friday for loz042.

Small craft advisory from 11 pm this evening to 11 am edt
Friday for loz044.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Jjr thomas
short term... Jla
long term... Tma
aviation... Jjr thomas
marine... Jjr thomas
tides coastal flooding... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
EREP1 25 mi33 min SW 6 G 13
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 26 mi63 min SW 13 G 17 67°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.9)
45142 - Port Colborne 35 mi63 min SSW 12 G 12 51°F 44°F1 ft1013.1 hPa (-1.0)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 45 mi33 min 66°F 1012.8 hPa

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last
24hr
SE6
G9
E7
G13
SE7
G11
SE8
G11
SE6
G12
SE5
G8
SE5
G9
S4
NE3
SE3
SE3
S3
SE1
S4
S2
SE7
S7
S6
S8
S9
S10
S5
G8
SW7
G12
SW11
1 day
ago
SW11
G15
SW9
G12
SW11
G14
SW14
SW10
G13
SW11
SW9
S5
S5
S4
S4
S3
S3
SE3
E3
SE4
E1
G4
E4
E4
E3
E6
E4
G9
SE9
G14
SE6
G14
2 days
ago
SW18
SW17
G23
W15
G21
SW16
SW14
G18
SW14
G17
SW15
W10
G15
NW19
G24
W17
NW14
G17
NW11
G14
NW9
G12
W7
W8
NW4
W4
G7
W6
SW4
SW9
SW11
G14
SW11
G17
SW12
SW10
G14

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY31 mi70 minSSW 1010.00 miLight Rain69°F63°F81%1014.2 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
Last 24hrSE8
G18
E11
G17
SE7E4SE8SE9S9S7
G15
S9S7S14
G21
S12
G17
S14
G20
S13S14
G21
S10S12
G19
S12S13
G21
S15
G22
S11
G20
S10SW6SW10
1 day agoW8W7W9W8W8W10W6W5SW3CalmCalm--CalmS3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE6E6E12--E5
2 days agoW15
G30
SW17
G24
W20
G26
SW17
G24
SW15
G22
SW14
G18
SW12
G18
W7W7W8
G17
W7W6W5W6W4W3SW6SW5SW6W8W6W10SW7W7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (13,3,4,5)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.