Wednesday, February20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:56PM Wednesday February 20, 2019 12:38 PM EST (17:38 UTC) Moonrise 7:23PMMoonset 8:00AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Avon Point To Willowick Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Willowick To Geneva-on-the-lake Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 945 Am Est Wed Feb 20 2019
Rest of today..East winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southeast. Snow and freezing rain likely late this morning, then snow, freezing rain and rain likely this afternoon. The lake is mostly ice covered.
Tonight..Southeast winds 15 to 25 knots becoming southwest. Rain in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Thursday..Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots becoming west.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots diminishing to 5 to 15 knots.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 knots or less becoming east.
Saturday..East winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots. A chance of rain during the day, then rain with a chance of Thunderstorms Saturday night.
Sunday..Southwest gales to 40 knots becoming west and diminishing to 30 knots. A chance of rain showers during the day, then a chance of snow and rain showers Sunday night. Winds higher in and near Thunderstorms. Waves omitted due to the lake being mostly ice covered.
LEZ061 Expires:201902202115;;232961 FZUS61 KCLE 201445 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 945 AM EST Wed Feb 20 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure tracking out of the Plains will deepen to 29.60 inches as it reaches Wisconsin by tonight. The low will continue across the central Great Lakes to southern Quebec by early Thursday pulling a cold front across Lake Erie. High pressure of 30.40 inches will build east across the lake Thursday night through Friday night. A stronger low pressure system will track out of the Plains on Saturday and deepen to 28.90 inches as it reaches the Central Great Lakes on Sunday. This system will pull a strong cold front across Lake Erie on Sunday. LEZ061-166>169-202115-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 201425
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
925 am est Wed feb 20 2019

Synopsis
A storm system will pass through the region today, with a light
wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain today and into the
evening, becoming predominately plain rain overnight. An area
of high pressure will then pass across the region tomorrow
afternoon through Saturday with fair weather. Another storm
system, this much stronger, will pass through the great lakes
region Saturday night through Sunday night with rain, and the
potential for very strong winds.

Near term through tonight
High clouds have already enveloped the region this morning as
upper level moisture to the north of a gulf of mexico veritable
fire hose that is dropping copious wintertime precipitation in
the ohio valley has been drawn northward. A wave currently
passing through the western great lakes will draw some of the
deeper moisture northward, but this will likely only affect
areas south of the thruway through the afternoon before we have
to wait for lift associated with an upper level trough over the
western northern plains to track into the great lakes this
evening.

A surface low associated with this upper low will pass by lake
superior this evening. Ahead of this surface low will be a llj,
around 50 to 60 knots at 3-4k feet. Convergence along this llj,
combined with a slight isentropic upglide in the moist 925 to
700 hpa layer will bring light precipitation to our region
this evening that may marginally increase in intensity overnight
as a cold front passes through the region.

Thermal profiles still suggest a brief beginning to the
precipitation as all snow, that will quickly change over to sleet
and freezing rain this afternoon and evening as the nose of a warmer
airmass aloft pushes into our region. A southeast downslope wind
will hold back on the arrival of precipitation along the lake erie
shoreline and across the metro buffalo area. Here light
precipitation may not begin to measure until the early evening
hours.

Greatest ice accumulation of just a few hundreds of an inch will
likely extend from the northern so. Tier and across the genesee
valley and finger lakes region. Lower elevations near lake erie will
likely have just a trace to a hundredth or two of ice. Snow will be
nominal, with perhaps the tug hill region possibly nearing an inch
of snow accumulation before a change to rain.

Together the snow and freezing rain chances will bring slippery
conditions to the roads and a winter weather advisory will remain in
place.

Tonight warm air will flow across the area, with 850 hpa
temperatures +4 to +5c and a southerly flow bringing increasing
surface temperatures into the mid 30s to lower 40s across wny. This
warming in the lower layers will result in plain rain falling as a
weak cold front crosses the region. This warming will not be as
pronounced east of lake ontario, but we should still see largely a
change over to plain rain here too.

Behind the cold front late tonight temperatures will slowly begin to
fall such that the plain rain may mix with some wet snowflakes
across the higher terrain late.

Winds will also increase in speed later today and tonight as the
surface low tracks through the central great lakes. While the low
will deepen some, its central pressure will remain 1000 mb or
greater, not overly impressive, but still strong enough that in
conjunction with the LLJ overhead may bring wind gusts to 30 to 35
mph. Strongest winds will be from the southeast, and along the lake
erie shoreline where downslope flow perpendicular to the chautauqua
ridge axis may yield gusts to 45 mph this afternoon and evening.

Short term Thursday through Saturday night
Precipitation will be in the process of moving out of our region as
we open this period Thursday morning. Low pressure over southern
quebec will ease down the st lawrence valley while transferring its
energy to the canadian maritimes. Weak ridging in TS wake along with
significant drying in the mid levels will help to shut down any
leftover precipitation... As any synoptic forcing will exit to the
east. The only area where some showers will persist will be east of
lake ontario... And that will be largely driven by orographics. There
are still some guidance packages that are suggesting lake induced
pcpn... But do not believe it. H85 temps are only forecast to drop to
-8c... And this is just too mild this time of year (lake temps low to
mid 30s) to produce any lake response. While the drying aloft will
offer many areas the opportunity to see some sun... The day will be
characterized by west-southwest winds that will gust to 35-40 mph.

This will be a small taste of what is to come this weekend.

A broad mid level ridge covering much of the country Thursday night
will amplify over the mississippi valley and upper great lakes...

while elongated high pressure will stretch across our region from
the northern rockies. While some guidance continues to erroneously
suggest lake effect... The ridging will guarantee fair dry weather
across our forecast area. The only potential fly in the ointment
will be some residual orographic induced showers east of lake
ontario... And those should be focused more on the adirondacks.

The expansive ridge will continue to amplify over the eastern half
of the country Friday and Friday night. This will continue to
guarantee fair weather for our region. In fact... Temperatures Friday
afternoon should approach 40 in many parts of western new york with
light winds and at least partial sunshine.

Conditions will gradually start to deteriorate on Saturday. Our
dominant area of high pressure will push east from new england...

while ongoing cyclogenesis over the southern plains will set the
stage for what could be the most impactful high wind event that our
region has experienced in several years. More on that in the long
term section below. As for the day at hand... Clouds will increase
and thicken from the south during the course of Saturday... As a
deepening southerly flow will boost afternoon temperatures well into
the 40s. This will especially be the case over the western counties
where some areas could even touch the 50 degree mark. While the day
should be dry... Some light rain cannot be ruled out for sites near
the pennsylvania border during the late afternoon.

A rapidly deepening cyclone over the central plains Saturday evening
will push northeast to the upper great lakes by daybreak Sunday.

There is strong consensus among the various guidance packages of
this track... As well as the general central pressure by daybreak...

which will be in the vcnty of 980mb. Extending to the east of this
monster storm system will be a tightening baroclinic zone that will
advance from pennsylvania across sour forecast area during the night.

Strong frontogenetic forcing will result in several hours of steady
rain... Which could briefly start as a wintry mix for areas near and
east of lake ontario.

Long term Sunday through Tuesday
Widespread damaging winds likely Sunday...

one of the strongest cyclones in recent memory will pass through
eastern canada Sunday and Sunday night. Medium range guidance
packages are in unusually good agreement on the strength and track
of the system... Including a minimum central pressure that is
forecast to be in the vcnty of 970-975mb. The intense system will
have several classic synoptic high wind signatures for our
region... Including a nearly ideal southwest to northeast track and
steady intensification as it passes. Closer inspection of the wind
profiles from this beast indicate forecast winds of 70 kts as low as
2500 ft and 60 kt winds as low as just 1000 ft. Given moderately
strong subsidence in the wake of the system... A large portion of
these winds would easily mix to the surface. A more subjective
parameter to watch will be the downward penetration of the trop
fold... Which in looking at the 1.5pvu field... Is being advertised to
lower to around 650mb. Taking all of these factors into
consideration... Current guidance suggests fairly widespread wind
gusts over 60 mph Sunday and early Sunday night... With the potential
for winds over 70 mph. This would make this event the strongest in
several years... But given the range of this forecast (day 5) and
model oscillation... Will hold off on headlines while beefing up the
dangerous threat in the hwo product.

As far as some more detailed timing... A powerful cold front
associated with the intensifying storm system will plow across our
forecast area Sunday morning. This is 3 to 6 hours faster than
recent numerical guidance and nearly 12 hours faster than guidance
from a couple days ago. Southerly winds will start to increase ahead
of the front early Sunday morning... Then winds will shift to the
southwest and immediately gust to 50 to 60 mph. While winds may
slacken a bit in the first hour or two behind the front... Winds will
then pick up during the midday and afternoon. This is when winds
could gust to between 60 and 70 mph... Particularly in the corridor
that extends from lake erie and the niagara frontier to rochester
and the thousand islands region. Lapse rates of 9 deg c km are
forecast from the sfc to the heart of the strong low level jet...

giving further reason to believe that the winds will have little
trouble mixing. Should these winds verify... We could anticipated
widespread power outages from downed trees. There would also be a
heightened risk for damage to some structures. Please keep in mind
though that at this point... It is only a forecast... Albeit one with
increasing confidence. It will be important to stay tuned to updated
forecasts and possible statements headlines as we progress through
the rest of the week. As a side note... The front will be accompanied
by some showers on Sunday... Mainly ahead of it... And then several
hours after it moves through.

The very strong winds will slowly subside Sunday night and Monday...

as the very deep storm will make its way across central quebec. The
high winds at this point will be accompanied by strong cold
advection. There will be the likelihood for snow showers within the
wrap around moisture field of the expansive storm... With lake
enhancement southeast of lake ontario.

By Tuesday... High pressure centered over the northern plains is
forecast to arch across the upper great lakes to our forecast area.

This should support fair weather for our region after a very rough
end to the weekend.

Aviation 14z Wednesday through Sunday
For the 12z tafsVFR flight conditions will be predominate as
surface high pressure moves across new england this morning.

Impactful weather will be found the last 18 hours of the taf
cycle as the center of a storm system passes by just to the west
of the region. This system will bring a wintry mix before
changing to plain rain later in the afternoon and through the
remainder of the TAF cycle.

A southeast downslope wind will limit precipitation around the kbuf
airfield today, with just a vcsh qualifier in the tafs.

A LLJ 50 to 60 knots (around 40 knots at 2k feet) will begin to
increase the southeast winds this afternoon. These winds will veer
to southwest tonight. Gusts to 30 knots at the surface are possible.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR MVFR with scattered rain or snow showers.

Friday and Saturday...VFR.

Sunday... MVFR or ifr with rain, then snow. Strong winds.

Marine
The center of a storm system will cut through the central great
lakes today and tonight, with southeast winds veering to
southwesterly tonight. While these winds will keep the higher waves
over the canadian waters, the winds may flirt with small craft
thresholds later today and tonight. Thursday these southwest winds
will increase further, and will place SCA on the lakes today through
Thursday night. Winds will also reach low end SCA on the niagara
river later tonight and tomorrow.

A powerful storm system will cut through the central great lakes
Sunday and Sunday night. As this system rapidly deepens it will
produce at least gale force winds on the lakes, with storm force
wind gusts likely.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 7 am est
Thursday for nyz006>008.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 1 am est
Thursday for nyz003>005-013-014.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
this evening for nyz001-002-010-011.

Winter weather advisory until 1 am est Thursday for nyz012-
019>021-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday for lez020.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 10 pm est
Thursday for lez040-041.

Small craft advisory from 1 am to 4 pm est Thursday
for loz030.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 4 am est
Friday for loz042>044.

Small craft advisory from 1 am Thursday to 4 am est Friday
for loz045.

Synopsis... Thomas
near term... Fries thomas
short term... Rsh
long term... Rsh
aviation... Thomas
marine... Thomas


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi38 min SSE 5.1 G 8 34°F 1024 hPa (-3.5)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi38 min 35°F 1023.8 hPa (-3.1)
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi38 min E 6 G 8 32°F 32°F1024.7 hPa (-2.8)1°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi38 min 29°F 1024.6 hPa (-3.1)
EREP1 47 mi38 min SE 9.9 G 16

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi45 minN 1010.00 miOvercast33°F21°F61%1024.5 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW8NW7W7W7W6CalmCalmSE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmNE4E6NE6NE8NE11SE11E8CalmN10
1 day agoNW5NW7W8W7W8W5SW5W6W4W5NW6W5S3SW4SW4SW4SW3S4S4SW3SW4SW8W8W7
2 days agoNE10NE11NE10NE13
G20
NE11N8NE9NE9NE10NE10NE11NE11NE8NE7NE9NE8N11N9N9N6N8N10NW5NW10

Tide / Current Tables for
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (12,3,4,5)
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.