Thursday, May23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Dunkirk, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:47AMSunset 8:39PM Thursday May 23, 2019 1:08 AM EDT (05:08 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 8:50AM Illumination 82% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 19 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ061 Lake Erie Open Waters From Ripley To Buffalo Ny- Lake Erie Open Waters From Geneva-on-the-lake To Conneaut Oh- Lake Erie Open Waters From Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny- 946 Pm Edt Wed May 22 2019
Rest of tonight..South winds 5 to 15 knots. A chance of showers late this evening. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early, then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms late in the morning. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet.
Thursday night..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 2 to 3 feet.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Friday night..South winds 10 knots or less increasing to 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. Showers and Thunderstorms likely during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Saturday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Sunday..West winds 10 knots or less becoming northwest. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers Sunday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet subsiding to 1 foot or less.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day. Waves 2 feet or less. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ061 Expires:201905230845;;303822 FZUS61 KCLE 230146 GLFLE Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie National Weather Service Cleveland OH 946 PM EDT Wed May 22 2019 For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A warm front will move northeast across Lake Erie overnight as low pressure 29.60 inches moves onto Lake Superior. The low will continue across Ontario into Quebec Thursday dragging a trailing cold front across the lake. A ridge averaging 30.20 inches will move east across the lake Friday. A warm front will follow Friday night. A cold front will drop southeast across the lake Saturday night. High pressure 30.00 inches will move east across the central Great Lakes Sunday. A warm front will approach from the south on Monday. LEZ061-168-169-230845-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Dunkirk, NY
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location: 42.49, -79.32     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 230217
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1017 pm edt Wed may 22 2019

Synopsis
A brief period of showers this evening will give way to some
clearing overnight. However, a more substantial area of showers
and thunderstorms will cross the area on Thursday ahead of a
cold front. Cooler and drier weather following in its wake for
later Thursday night and Friday.

Near term through Thursday
Through the overnight hours, surface low pressure will wander
toward lake superior... While slowly pushing its attendant warm
front into our region. In tandem with this... A modest mid level
shortwave and weak (30-40 knot) low level jet will traverse our
region from west to east during the first half of the
night... With a brief shot of increased forcing and moisture
attendant to these features providing the impetus for a round of
scattered showers. Following the passage of the shortwave and
its low level jet... General subsidence should then allow for
mainly dry conditions for the remainder of the night. Given the
overall warm advection regime... Lows tonight will be
substantially warmer than those of the past couple of nights...

with minimum temperatures ranging from the lower 50s across the
north country to near 60 along the lake erie shoreline.

On Thursday the warm front and any isolated attendant showers storms
will finish pushing across our area during the morning... And may be
followed by a brief relative lull for a few hours. After that time...

the combination of diurnal heating destabilization of an increasingly
warm and more humid airmass within the warm sector... Increasing height
falls aloft... And the approach of a prefrontal trough should lead to
renewed convective development by late morning or midday... With this
initially developing and focusing to the southeast of the stabilizing
influence of lake erie... Before growing pushing northeast across the
genesee valley finger lakes and into the north country during the early
to mid afternoon hours... With the bulk of this then sliding east of our
region late. Given the combination of favorable moisture... Lift... And
instability that is expected... Have further increased pops associated
with this round of convection to the lower end of the categorical range.

With respect to the potential for strong to severe storms... A
strengthening westerly flow regime aloft will lead to copious amounts
of shear areawide... With 0-6 km bulk shear values of at least 50 knots
expected... And some the short term guidance suggesting that this could
reach as high as 60-70 knots. With respect to instability... Diurnal
destabilization out ahead of the prefrontal trough is currently projected
to lead to the MUCAPE values of 1000-1500 j kg in those areas south of
lake ontario away from stabilizing lake influences... With localized
pockets of 1500-2000 j kg possible. Such a combination of shear and
instability should lead to the development of increasingly organized
convection and an attendant risk for all forms of severe weather.

Of these... Damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary
threats by far... Though the amount of available shear and low lcl
heights would also be supportive of a small... But nonzero risk for
a tornado. Given all this... The current slight risk of severe storms
advertised in spc's day 2 convective outlook looks very reasonable...

particularly from the southern tier eastward across the finger lakes
where the shear-instability parameter space appears most favorable.

Behind the prefrontal trough and its attendant convection... Increasing
drying and subsidence will make for a much less favorable environment
for additional convection... And as such would expect the trailing cold
front (as is so commonly the case for our area) to produce little
more than some isolated to scattered showers as it works into far
western new york late in the day. The bigger story in the wake of
the prefrontal trough will actually be a brief but notable period of
stronger southwesterly to westerly winds downwind of lake erie... Where
downward transport of higher momentum air from aloft should lead to a
round of 15-30 mph sustained winds along with gusts to 40-45 mph during
the early to mid afternoon hours... With these then quickly subsiding
as we head toward evening.

Short term Thursday night through Sunday night
The forcing responsible for the active weather Thursday afternoon
will quickly exit our region Thursday evening... As a 45-50kt low
level jet and deep moisture profile ahead of a cold front will make
its way across new england. While there may be some leftover showers
and thunderstorms early in the evening due to the actual cold
frontal passage... The trend will definitely be for benign weather
with dying convection rapidly giving way to partial clearing. In
fact... All of the forecast area should be precipitation free by
midnight. Meanwhile... The somewhat muggy conditions (dew points in
the 60s) will be replaced by a more comfortable canadian airmass
with tds falling back into the low 50s by daybreak.

Ridging at all levels will build across the lower great lakes on
Friday. The strong subsidence provided by the ridge and the
proximity of being under the right front exit region of a 150kt h25
jet will nearly guarantee dry weather with abundant sunshine. It
will be notably cooler (by more than 10 deg f) than Thursday
though... As a canadian airmass with single digit h85 temps will only
allow afternoon mercury readings to be in the mid to upper 60s.

While the bulk of Friday night will be rain free in most areas... A
baroclinic zone will become established over the great lakes region
courtesy of a broad storm system over the upper lakes and exiting
high pressure to our east. In fact... The forecast pops will be a
little higher than those advertised by many of the guidance
packages. Just cannot trust a warm front... Or in this case... The
semblance of one.

Saturday will be rather unsettled across our region. The
aforementioned warm front will press northwards across the region
during the first half of the day... Then a pre frontal trough will
make its way through during the afternoon. Much like the convective
environment from Thursday... Sfc based instability will be
unimpressive to the tune of 500-1000 j kg while a 45kt low level jet
will set the stage for 40-45kts of deep layer shear. This will
encourage any convection to become strong to severe... Especially
inland from the influences of a well established lake breeze off lk
erie. Have added a little enhanced wording to the package by
mentioning gusty winds with the likely convection. Also like
Thursday... It will be warm and humid ahead of the pre frontal trough
and subsequent cold front... With MAX temps of 75 to 80 over the
western counties where dew points will also be in the 60s.

In the wake of a cold frontal passage... A large sfc high will
gradually build across the forecast area during the day Sunday.

While this should support fair weather to end the weekend... There is
a fairly wide variance in solutions for this period... Including the
risk that the cold front will stall near or just south of the
southern tier. This would lend itself to a much more unsettled day
if it were to verify. Will compromise for now with low chc pops near
the pennsylvania border.

Long term Monday through Wednesday
A bubble of high pressure will build over the eastern great lakes
Monday and potentially bring a brief break between rain chances with
a mainly dry day. A warm front will move northeast across the
eastern great lakes Monday night with a chance of a few showers.

Tuesday through Wednesday the longwave trough will re-focus across
the northern plains, forcing downstream height rises across the
eastern united states. This will allow warmer and somewhat more
humid air to move back into the ohio valley and new england. Model
guidance has shown some run to run variability with the synoptic
scale details during this time period. In a general sense, one or
two low pressure systems will move through the great lakes later
Tuesday through Wednesday. These systems will bring an increase in
large scale forcing and a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms
at times. High temperatures will move back into the 70s at least,
and possibly 80s if some of the warmer model guidance verifies.

Aviation 02z Thursday through Monday
GenerallyVFR conditions will prevail through. The evening as
showers become more common, especially south of the kbuf to
kroc corridor. These will pass overnight with some clearing
working its way in as drier air aloft again comes back into
play. A cold front slices through the area on Thursday with
showers and thunderstorms along it. Some of these could become
severe with very strong wind gusts and large hail. Behind this
cold front, winds will abruptly shift wsw and gust through the
evening on Thursday.

Outlook...

Thursday night... Scattered showers and storms ending early across
eastern sections... OtherwiseVFR.

Friday...VFR.

Saturday...VFR MVFR with showers likely and a chance of
thunderstorms. Some storms could again produce gusty winds.

Sunday... MainlyVFR.

Monday...VFR.

Marine
High pressure draped across new york state will drift eastward into
new england this afternoon... While low pressure advances across
minnesota. In between these two systems a moderate easterly flow will
continue across the lower great lakes... Though the strongest winds
and greatest wave action will remain confined to the open waters
of lake ontario. Winds will then turn southerly tonight and Thursday
morning as a warm front pushes across our region.

On Thursday southwesterly winds will increase within the warm sector
of a storm system... With winds likely to reach small craft criteria on
lake erie... And possibly the western half of lake ontario.

A cold front will then cross the lower great lakes late Thursday and
Thursday night... With brisk westerly winds behind this feature leading
to the continued possibility of advisory-level conditions on portions
of both lakes.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Jjr
near term... Fries jjr
short term... Rsh
long term... Hitchcock
aviation... Fries jjr
marine... Jjr


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY 2 mi68 min S 8.9 G 12 65°F 1017.5 hPa (+0.0)
45142 - Port Colborne 17 mi68 min SSW 5.8 G 7.8 54°F 44°F1017.3 hPa (-0.8)
PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY 20 mi62 min 60°F 1017.2 hPa
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 35 mi62 min S 1.9 G 4.1 60°F 54°F1018.1 hPa42°F
NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY 44 mi62 min 56°F 1017.9 hPa
EREP1 47 mi50 min S 6 G 12

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dunkirk, Chautauqua County / Dunkirk Airport, NY3 mi75 minS 12 G 1710.00 miFair65°F48°F56%1017.7 hPa

Wind History from DKK (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3CalmNE4CalmCalmCalmE6E6E12--E5SE8
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1 day agoW6W4W3SW6SW5SW6W8W6W10SW7W7W8W7W9W8W8W10W6W5SW3CalmCalm--Calm
2 days agoS12
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W7W7W8
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W7W6W5

Tide / Current Tables for
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.