Monday, September25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:21AMSunset 7:23PM Monday September 25, 2017 11:56 PM EDT (03:56 UTC) Moonrise 11:38AMMoonset 9:46PM Illumination 30% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1001 Am Edt Mon Sep 25 2017
Rest of today..Light and variable winds. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots late in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..South winds 5 to 10 knots in the evening becoming light and variable. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming north 10 to 15 knots in the evening. Partly cloudy then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201709252000;;910820 FZUS63 KDTX 251405 RRA GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1001 AM EDT MON SEP 25 2017 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...High pressure, 30.10 inches, will hold across the central and eastern Great Lakes today through Tuesday. The next low pressure system and cold front, 29.80 inches, is then due to cross the region Tuesday night and Wednesday. Cooler high pressure will follow the front Thursday also followed quickly by another cold front during Friday. LCZ460-252000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 252245
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
645 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017

Aviation
Other than patchy MVFR fog late tonight, expectVFR conditions with
mainly clear skies as strong ridge of high pressure holds sway.

Light variable winds will become south southwest on Tuesday and may
approach 10 knots during peak afternoon mixing. Any diurnal cumulus
will most likely be trivial.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Prev discussion
Issued at 352 pm edt Mon sep 25 2017
discussion...

dominant upper level ridging remains in place over eastern north
america and continues to support unseasonably hot weather across
southeastern michigan. This airmass is expected to persist for
another 48 hours.

Through the early afternoon, observational trends, including 24 hour
departures, suggests high temperatures for today topping out around
the 90 degree mark. Daily records are yet again in jeopardy at dtw,
fnt and mbs. Low level moisture and high surface dewpoints have been
able to make the turn within the large upper level ridge and has
flooded back northward into lower michigan. This is obvious in the
surface obs with dewpoints in the 60s for many areas of southeastern
michigan. The return of this moisture has actually led to some
cumulus development. Bulk of hi-resolution explicit convection
models suggests some lower end potential for convective development
across northern portions of the cwa, near saginaw bay during the
late afternoon. 0.5z kdtx reflectivity and northern edge of cumulus
in satellite imagery places a mesoscale convergence zone over the
northern edge of the cwa. The one item that will be monitored during
the remainder of the afternoon is the arrival of a tounge of 600-
500mb equivalent potential temperature from the southwest during the
19-22z time window. The introduction of this midlevel moisture could
cool the 12.5 to 16.0 kft agl layer, allowing for convection to
initiate. Again, the potential for a thunderstorm exists north of i
69 near the tri cities conditional to convective initiation. No
severe weather is expected.

Right entrance region dynamics will push across portions of northern
ontario tonight. Locally, the response of this occurring will be for
a shortwave ridging component to amplify the mid to upper level
ridge axis back over the great lakes region. Low cloud fraction is
anticipated across southeastern michigan. A little interesting that
850mb temperatures are expected to be 1 to 1.5 degrees warmer
tomorrow. With the approach of increasing gradient southwesterly
flow ahead of the approaching cold front and increase in
compressional warming, wanted to make sure the forecast had 90
degree readings for many area.

Upper level jet core is shown to push directly into sections of
lower michigan already by Tuesday evening which will finally allow a
cold front to push across the region. A very stable consensus in nwp
continues for a dry front across michigan during the day on
Wednesday. The support for a dry front includes a late morning
timing, extremely unfavorable positioning of southeastern michigan to
a straight anticyclonic shear side of the upper level jet axis, and
the propensity for the front to become increasingly more parallel to
the mean flow. Daytime highs on Wednesday are expected to be some 10
to 15 degrees below what we have seen here on this run.

Cold advection will be complete by Thursday morning as the thermal
trough pivots through the region. Surface ridging will bring dry
conditions on Thursday as highs top out near normal in the upper
60s. A shortwave pivoting southeastward through the upper level
trough will drop an area of low pressure through the region on
Friday. This low will bring a chance of showers along with a
reinforcing shot of cooler air as 850 mb temps approach 0 c Friday
night into early Saturday. Surface high pressure then builds into
the region for the weekend as upper level ridging moves eastward
over the great lakes. This will bring pleasant, dry weather for both
Saturday and Sunday as highs slowly warm through the 60s each day
while lows fall into the 40s.

Marine...

record early fall warmth will continue today through Tuesday. The
warm air and light southerly wind will produce ideal marine
conditions during this time. A cold front crossing the central great
lakes Tuesday night and Wednesday will then bring temperatures back
down toward normal along with a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds behind the front will become northwest at light
to moderate speed, although a few gusts near 30 knots will be
possible over the open waters of central lake huron. The part of the
forecast to monitor will be the associated higher wave pattern
remaining far enough offshore to avoid the need for small craft
advisories over southern lake huron. Another low pressure system and
cold front due Friday will bring a reinforcement of colder air and
unstable marine conditions for the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..99
discussion... CB jd
marine... ... .Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi57 min S 1.9 G 2.9 76°F 1015.9 hPa (+0.7)
AGCM4 21 mi39 min 70°F 1015.7 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi39 min 74°F 1015.3 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi39 min S 1.9 G 1.9 74°F 1015.4 hPa65°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi37 min ESE 8.9 G 9.9 76°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi64 minN 010.00 miFair74°F64°F74%1015.3 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi2 hrsS 410.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F91%1015.4 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi63 minN 010.00 miFair77°F62°F60%1016.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE4CalmE3SE3Calm3S6SE7SE7E8SE5SE4S4S4Calm
1 day agoCalmCalmN5N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE4SE53SE8E7E6SE8E7E6E4S3CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmS3N3CalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE7SE5SE5SE6SE6E3S3S4S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.