Monday, February19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 6:10PM Monday February 19, 2018 2:53 PM EST (19:53 UTC) Moonrise 9:29AMMoonset 10:10PM Illumination 20% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 1002 Am Est Mon Feb 19 2018
Rest of today..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Showers.
Tonight..South winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Light showers. Areas of dense fog.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Areas of dense fog early in the morning. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Tuesday night..South winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 10 to 15 knots in the late evening and overnight. Showers and a chance of Thunderstorms.
Wednesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the evening. Partly Sunny late in the afternoon becoming mostly cloudy becoming partly cloudy late in the evening. A chance of Thunderstorms early in the morning. Rain showers until late afternoon.
Thursday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain and snow showers. Waves omitted due to ice coverage.
LCZ460 Expires:201802192115;;215844 FZUS63 KDTX 191502 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1002 AM EST Mon Feb 19 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure of 29.90 inches will weaken as it tracks near Lake Superior this morning, drawing a warm front north to near Saginaw Bay by this evening. A second low pressure system averaging 29.70 inches will then push from eastern Iowa into central Michigan from tonight into Tuesday, pushing this front further north. As this low passes to the east, a trailing cold front will then drop through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. High pressure will then build into the region through the middle of the week. LCZ460-192115-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191825
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
125 pm est Mon feb 19 2018

Aviation
A warm front moving northward through lower michigan will maintain
lifr conditions at all terminals during the afternoon into the
evening. The eventual northward progress of the front and warm sector
will then dictate any improvement during the night through Tuesday
morning. Upstream observations do indicate MVFRVFR conditions in the
warm sector that is marked by wind shifting to southwest and
becoming gusty. The warm sector is expected to make it into the dtw
area during the evening and possibly as far north as fnt toward
midnight, depending on the strength of low pressure as it moves
across lake michigan. The wind will be light SE with llws ahead of
the front before stalling somewhere around mbs as the surface low
washes out in favor of new low pressure development to the south. Any
improvement to MVFR will be followed by a trend back down into ifr
as the next batch of rain moves in overnight, along with the usual
nocturnal boundary layer cloud trends. It is still early for the
inclusion of thunder at any of the terminals, while still possible,
this will be better added in later updates.

For dtw... A combination of lifr visibility and ceiling will improve
to MVFR as a warm front moves north of the terminal. Development of
gusty southwest wind and much milder air will mark the passage of
the front which will last through the night.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for ceiling 5000 feet or less for the entire forecast.

* high for ptype as rain.

* low for CIGS vsby to fall below 200ft and or 1 2sm during
the afternoon.

* low for thunderstorms impacting terminal tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 1057 am est Mon feb 19 2018
update...

not a whole lot of change to the forecast at this time. With the
moisture entering the area, there are some areas that may experience
some fog that may reduce visibility to around a mile or less. Have
added some patchy fog into the forecast. Radar trends show organized
rainfall along the warm front at the southern michigan border moving
northward. Looks like today the radar trends will have the higher
rainfall amounts occur south of the i-69 corridor as the organized
convection lifts through.

Prev discussion...

issued at 344 am est Mon feb 19 2018
discussion...

flood watch will be issued with this forecast package for a long
duration rainfall event that will begin this morning and persist
through Wednesday afternoon. Models continue to advertise rainfall
totals area wide of 1-3 inches within that window of time. In
addition the last of the snowpack will melt off putting additional
water into the runoff. Still frozen soil and river, stream and lakes
may lead to flooding concerns.

Longwave pattern will undergo strong amplification today with
deepening trough over the western CONUS and ridging across the east.

This pattern will hold through much of the week as a train of waves
diving south out of the alaska region reinforces the deep trough.

Lee cyclogenesis over the plains will result in a region of low
pressure that will take some time to mature as the trough continues
to deepen today, but will strengthen a baroclinic zone extending
from the central plains up through the central great lakes and
across ontario and quebec. The trough extending into the desert sw
will pick up energy from the southern stream of the jet and provide
for strong low level moisture advection as south westerlies extend
from the gulf of mexico up into the great lakes. Low level jet will
strengthen to around 50 knots today which will raise pwats quickly
up to around 1.4 inches (consensus of nearly every models). This
boundary will be the focus of several waves both aloft and at the
surface over the next few days utilizing the high moisture content,
leading to the aforementioned widespread rain event.

The event starts early this morning with a lead wave tracking
through the northern lakes. This lead wave pulled an initial warm
front up through southern mi opening the door for southwesterly warm
air advection and moisture transport into the area. Most of the
moisture at this time is tied up in saturating the mid levels,
although a ripple along the front will bring the first batch of
showers mainly south of m59. The next surface low will not be far
behind, lifting toward southern lake mi this evening. A stronger
warm front will get pulled northward ahead of this low, nosing into
se mi this afternoon. Hires models are still suggesting this front
will struggle to make it much past the m59 corridor this evening,
resulting in a strong temperature gradient across the region ranging
from mid 50s near ohio down to around 40 across the saginaw valley.

Strong isentropic ascent and theta E advection up this front will
bring more widespread rainfall to all of SE mi between 18-21z this
afternoon. Rainfall will continue through the overnight as a piece
of the low lifts from northern il up through northern lower mi. A
chance of embedded thunder will arrive with the low as showalter
indices drop to, and hover near, zero tonight into Tuesday. Though
severe weather is not expected, this will act to increase rainfall
rates and amounts across those areas.

On Tuesday, a strong vort MAX will rotate around the longwave
trough, pulling a stronger surface reflection up along the boundary.

This will keep the rain coming with the chance of thunder. This will
also usher in the warmest airmass with surface temps climbing into
the mid 60s. Meanwhile the dewpoints will also climb into the upper
50s lending to the already saturated airmass. The latest low will
then start to advance the boundary as a cold front as strong surface
high building over the plains starts working east. Periods of rain
will continue overnight and into Wednesday until the front can clear
the region to the east Wednesday afternoon.

The strong high will eventually build across the great lakes making
for a dry Wednesday evening and overnight. Shortwave ridge aloft
will also arrive for the latter half of the week. Cooler air will
return, with lows falling back into the 20s with highs through the
end of the week down to around the low 40s (which is still above
normal for late feb). After trying to recharge, models show the
western trough sending the next pair of lows through the region
Friday and Sunday. So chances of precipitation will return although
with a break in between this time.

Marine...

a warm front will lift north into the region today, stalling near
saginaw bay by early this evening. Winds will back to the east to
the north of this front with time, but remain southerly generally
from southern lake huron south to western lake erie. Wind gusts will
be limited to 20 knots on both sides of this front today. This front
will lift further north into Tuesday as a low pressure system tracks
into the central great lakes.

South to southwest winds will increase on Tuesday, but increasingly
stable conditions within this mild flow will cap wind gusts near 25
knots. Winds will veer to the northwest Tuesday night into Wednesday
as the aforementioned low continues into quebec and a trailing cold
front drops through the area. Instability will increase in this
colder flow, so gusts will approach 30 knots by Wednesday over parts
of lake huron. Widespread rainfall with a few thunderstorms can also
be expected from later today on through Tuesday into parts of
Wednesday.

Hydrology...

a warm front will lift slowly north into the area today, stalling
over parts of michigan through Tuesday night as several waves of low
pressure track along it. Abundant moisture and very mild conditions
will accompany the frontal boundary leading to a complete melting of
any remaining snowpack. Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches can be
expected through midweek with the potential for even higher amounts
in areas of convection and training rain segments closest to the
frontal boundary.

While rain chances will be high area-wide through this period,
initial heavy rain potential will focus along and north of the i-69
corridor later today into tonight along this stalled front. The
focus will then shift southward Tuesday into Tuesday night as the
final low pressure system tracks into area along the front and
forces it to the southeast with time.

With the rainfall falling over a duration of three days, flooding
concerns will be greatest for area rivers and streams, although
ponding of water on roadways and low lying areas will certainly be
possible across much of the region. Significant rises in area rivers
and streams, including potential sharp rises from ice breakup due to
the very mild temperatures will likely occur leading to potential
minor flood stages being exceeded on a few rivers and streams.

Climate...

record high temperatures will be possible across much of southeast
michigan Tuesday. Here is a look at record high temperatures for
Tuesday, february 20th:
detroit 63 (2016)
flint 61 (1930)
saginaw 62 (1930)
with the high moisture content, good chance to break the high
minimum records for february 20th as well:
detroit 47 (1930)
flint 45 (1930)
saginaw 46 (1930)

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Flood watch through Wednesday afternoon for miz047>049-053>055-
060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
update... ... .Aa
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Dg
hydrology... .Dg
climate... ... Dg
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi53 min SE 6 G 7 35°F 1014.9 hPa (-1.7)
AGCM4 21 mi53 min 39°F 1014.3 hPa (-1.8)
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi53 min 38°F 1014.2 hPa (-1.4)
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi53 min SSW 4.1 G 7 39°F 1014.1 hPa (-1.4)38°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi53 min S 15 G 15 44°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi60 minSSE 52.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist41°F39°F96%1015.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi57 minE 40.75 miLight Rain Fog/Mist36°F36°F100%1015 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi58 minN 01.00 miLight Rain40°F39°F96%1014.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW13S9S9S7S3SE5SE7SE8S7S8S7S3S5SE4CalmS4S3S6S6S7SW5SW6S4S5
1 day agoS8SW6S8--S9S5S4W5W4W3W4W6W8W6W7W9W5W5W3SW6SW4SW7S11SW10
2 days agoNW11
G17
NW7NW10NW6NW4CalmS4S4S5SW4SW3SW5S4CalmS3S5S5S6S7S9S9S9SW9SW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.