Monday, March27, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 7:19AMSunset 7:54PM Monday March 27, 2017 10:26 PM EDT (02:26 UTC) Moonrise 6:19AMMoonset 6:32PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 1 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 938 Am Edt Mon Mar 27 2017
Rest of today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots this evening becoming light and variable...then becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots after midnight increasing to 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Cloudy with a chance of light rain early in the morning...then mostly cloudy in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly Sunny becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..East winds 15 to 20 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Rain. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201703272015;;158969 FZUS63 KDTX 271338 GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 938 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE...29.90 INCHES...WILL MOVE FROM LAKE HURON EARLY THIS MORNING TO SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...29.80 INCHES...IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL MOVE TO THE MID ATLANTIC ON TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE OF 30.40 INCHES EXPANDS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. THIS HIGH WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. LCZ460-272015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 272318
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit/pontiac mi
718 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017

Aviation
Weak cold front is beginning to slip south across southeast michigan
this evening. The boundary is accelerating south through the st
clair valley with substantial assistance from a cold lake huron.

Winds will quickly flip to northerly in the first few hours of the
forecast, then remain, as a surface low passes to the south of the
region. Increasing moisture from the south, in combination with
lower inversion heights in the wake of the surface front, will
establish a good conduit for ifr stratus to take up residence
tonight. Light fog and pockets of drizzle are possible at the
detroit area terminals, as the system skirts through the ohio valley
tonight. Ceilings will slowly improve through the day - but still
remain MVFR. Clearing will begin to take place by late afternoon
across the far north, then slowly settle south through Tuesday
evening.

For dtw... Ceilings will drop below 2kft before midnight then below
1kft overnight. Some light fog and patchy drizzle is expected as
well through the early morning hours. Ceilings will then have a very
slow climb through Tuesday. Otherwise, winds will quickly turn to
the north in the next couple of hours.

//dtw threshold probabilities...

* high for CIGS below 5000 feet through the TAF period.

* moderate for visibilities around 3sm between 07-15z.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 pm edt Mon mar 27 2017
discussion...

cloudy to mostly cloudy skies around today, but temps still able to
reach into the upper 40s north to lower 60s south.

Upper level wave/circulation currently over southern missouri will
be unraveling/shearing out, with bulk of the upper level PV tracking
through to the ohio river tonight. Meanwhile, upper level trough
tracking through northern great lakes this evening/tonight, with
southeast michigan caught in between two systems. Best chance of
rain looks to be toward ohio border with 700 mb
forcing/fgen/deformation potentially getting that far north, but 12z
nam/regional gem are both mainly dry (local probabilistic sref
weighted guidance trends are trending down as well, along with
latest hrrr), with maybe just some light showers with the weak cold
front/low level convergence dropping south through lower michigan.

Good drying out occuring during Tuesday as pw values drop into
the 0.25 to 0.5 inch range with stout subsidence/drying continuing
Tuesday night underneath pronounced upper level northwest confluent
flow as upper level ridge axis builds over the western great lakes.

Problem is northerly flow off lake huron may be sufficient for low
clouds trapped underneath the strengthening low level inversion,
but it does drop below 3000 feet late in the day Tuesday, likely
allowing for clearing skies toward sunset Tuesday. Favorable
radiating night with surface ridge extending from large high
centered over ontario, sending temps at or below freezing,
with rural locations/good radiators potentially slipping into the
20s. Although, development of lake huron stratus could become an
issue, with these clouds potentially impacting the Wednesday
forecast (see 12z GFS 925 mb rh/temps). SREF plumes at detroit
indicating highs anywhere from 40 to 60 degrees. As this time,
forecast will favor mostly sunny skies on Wednesday which will will
help ease the chill, but northeast flow at the surface off lake huron
and 925 mb temps averaging 3 c (per 12z euro) points to highs in the
upper 40s to around 50 degrees, or close to normal.

Low pressure will continue to push from mo and into the ohio valley
Thursday morning into Friday, bringing the likely chance for
precipitation. Current thinking is precipitation seen throughout the
morning hours will have the chance to fall as snow or a rain/snow
mix as wet-bulb processes dominate due to a dry low level
environment. As the column saturates and temperatures warm up, a
transition to rain will take place throughout the afternoon, from
south to north. Pop values will increase throughout Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning as the low pushes east across in.

The ECMWF and gem models are exhibiting a more southerly track of
the low compared to yesterday's run, and as a result, the column of
air is not quite as warm as what was seen yesterday heading into
Friday. This brings the possibility of seeing additional snow or a
rain/snow mix, mainly near the thumb, throughout the early morning
hours, as temperatures have the potential to dip near the freezing
mark. Any snow solution near the thumb is expected to be short-lived
as temperatures warm up quickly through the late morning and
afternoon, transitioning any remaining precipitation back to rain as
the low starts to exit the area. Pop values are expected to diminish
late Friday into Saturday, as high pressured starts to edge in from
the west. Dry conditions will then be expected through the weekend
as temperatures stick around in the low to mid-50s for a high.

Marine...

fog over lake huron will dissipate from north to south during the
late afternoon and evening as a cold front drops through the area.

The front will also switch winds to the north, but speeds will
remain fairly light overnight. Strong high pressure building into
ontario will then increase north to northeast winds Tuesday and
Wednesday. The strongest gusts look occur over southern lake huron,
lake st clair, and western lake erie, but are expected to only just
top 20 knots. While sustained wind speeds are expected to stay in
the 10 to 20 knot range, the persistent northerly flow and long
fetch over the water will increase wave heights over southern lake
huron. Low-end small craft advisories could be needed for portions
of the nearshore waters during the mid-week period. Approaching low
pressure will then prompt increased east winds Thursday night into
Friday, allowing waves to grow once again over southern lake huron
and western lake erie.

Dtx watches/warnings/advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mann
discussion... Sf/am
marine... ... .Hlo
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi27 min N 9.9 G 11 49°F 1013.5 hPa (+1.3)
AGCM4 21 mi39 min 50°F 1012.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi39 min 40°F 1013.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi39 min NNE 11 G 12 38°F 1013.4 hPa37°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi27 min E 2.9 G 2.9 50°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI8 mi34 minN 410.00 miOvercast55°F48°F80%1012.9 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi89 minNNE 610.00 miOvercast52°F52°F99%1012.3 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi33 minNNW 510.00 miOvercast54°F46°F76%1013.5 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmS6SW7S4SW4W5W5W5SW4SW7SW9W7SW10SW11SW10W7SW6SW10SW8SW7SW7W3N4
1 day agoE10
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E10E10E9E12E10E10E6E6E10E13E10SE4CalmE5SE6SE8SE5E3E3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoN16
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NE8N8N8N8NE5NE6NE7N7N6N8NE7NE6NE10E10E12
G17
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G20

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
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IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.