Thursday, June20, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

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6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:13PM Thursday June 20, 2019 2:04 AM EDT (06:04 UTC) Moonrise 10:55PMMoonset 7:50AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 404 Pm Edt Wed Jun 19 2019
Tonight..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight...then becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..North winds 10 to 15 knots. Showers in the morning... Then light showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. A chance of. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly Sunny in the morning becoming partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201906200800;;746239 FZUS63 KDTX 192006 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 404 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2019 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...Low pressure averaging 29.70 inches will travel east from southern Indiana into the Ohio Valley for the remainder of Wednesday, strengthening down to 29.50 inches by Thursday morning. The low pressure system will then travel northeast along Lake Erie into Lake Ontario, and will drag a cold front behind it across Michigan. An area of high pressure, 30.00 inches, will then expand across the Great Lakes Friday into Saturday morning. This ridge of high pressure is forecasted to hold over Lake Huron through Sunday morning before the next low pressure system travels over Michigan early next week. LCZ460-200800-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 200356
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1156 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019

Aviation
A low pressure system on pace to lift across the northern ohio
valley on Thursday. Forcing tied this system will begin to organize
locally overnight, resulting in a gradually expanding coverage of
showers. Conditions generally expected to remain withinVFR early
on, before a more aggressive decline in cloud bases emerges by mid-
late morning. High likelihood for low MVFR to ifr level restrictions
to eventually develop, with the possibility for a window of lifr on
Thursday. Isolated tsra cannot be ruled out, but chances still too
limited to highlight attm. A light northeast wind overnight,
prevailing from this direction into Thursday. A shift in the
gradient as the low passes by to the south will allow winds to
gradually back with time to northerly Thursday afternoon.

For dtw... Window exists early this morning for clear skies across
the lowest 5000 ft. Steady decline in CIGS thereafter, with low
cloud in place within widespread rainfall lasting through Thursday
afternoon. Prospects for tsra will remain very low on Thursday.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling 5000 ft or less prior 09z, high thereafter.

* low in ceiling 200 ft and or visibility 1 2 sm or less after 10z
Thursday.

* low in thunderstorm occurrence Thursday.

Prev discussion
Issued at 436 pm edt Wed jun 19 2019
discussion...

main focus for the remainder of the afternoon and this evening
remains centered on potential for heavy rainfall with shower and
thunderstorm activity. Thus far, slow moving convection has been
able to provide for rainfall rates exceeding 1.00 to 1.20 inches per
hour. The most favored corridor for heavy rainfall is expected to
remain along or between I 69 and m 59, favoring a nearly stationary
axis of 925-850mb frontogenesis. Forecast thought and meterological
rationale provided in the early morning afd and morning update
remains valid. No severe weather is anticipated, but an isolated
wind gust up to 40 mph will be possible with water loading. The
current round of shower and thunderstorm activity will have the
potential to hold on until roughly 02z this evening.

Widespread rain will then develop later tonight as the wave of low
pressure approaches the northern ohio river valley. Latest
indications are the surface low will reach northwest ohio at
approximately 999mb after 15z Thursday. Plan view perspective of
equivalent potential temperature show strong system relative
isentropic ascent for the middle of june standards setting up over
southeast michigan, then stalling out directly over the area through
the mid afternoon hours on Thursday. From a thermodynamic
perspective the increase in midlevel theta E content will provide
for an environment supportive of impressive moist deep convection
with moist adiabatic lapse rates low static stability through 30 kft
agl. Thought and deliberated on whether or not to issue an areal
flood watch for tonight from the ohio border through I 69 corridor.

The big forecast concern for late tonight is whether or not the
midevel deformation forcing will cause a contraction in scale and
result in a mesoscale band of heavy rainfall. Forecast data the past
12 hours or so has been hinting at this potential from north metro
detroit up to about the I 69 corridor. If the mesoscale band of
heavy rainfall was able to develop, then some areas could observe
total rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches. The combination of 1000-
500mb geopotential height falls and persistent deep column
deformation will lead to another rainy, cool and dismal Thursday.

Given isolated footprint of afternoon convection this afternoon, and
low confidence in mesoscale contraction to rain banding tonight,
have decided not to issue a flood watch. The other area of concern
will be the far southern cwa, lenawee and monroe county where heavy
rainfall potential will exist immediately in advance of the 700-
500mb low pressure center direct cva primarily between 09-15z.

Rain will eventually end early Thursday evening as midlevel
subsidence takes hold of the cwa. Cool night is expected Thursday
nighg with overnight lows some 8 to 13 degrees below normal.

Pleasant and quiet conditions are expected on Friday with sunshine
allowing highs to reach in the 70s and dewpoints in the 50s.

Ridging will gradually amplify over the great lakes region this
weekend in response to a slow moving longwave trough over the
western conus. This will result in increasing temperatures and
humidity as a ridge of higher theta-e air expands northward. There
remains a chance that a mesoscale convective system will traverse
the instability gradient across the great lakes and move into se
michigan Saturday evening night, but with building heights in place
and a strong surface high to our east, thinking this possibility is
relatively unlikely as the system may dissipate or be shunted off to
the south. Will keep chance pops for this time period to account for
the possibility. Saturday will otherwise be dry with increasing
clouds and temperatures warming into the mid 70s.

Chance for showers and storms remains in place for late Sunday and
Monday in the humid air mass. The upper ridge axis will pass
overhead on Sunday which will likely keep the region dry for most of
the day (see 12z euro and canadian solutions). The GFS however
continues to trigger some activity with a convective shortwave
traversing the ridge. The better probability of any shower storm
activity comes late Sunday into Monday as a warm front lifts through
the region and an approaching shortwave leads to the development of
a low pressure system in the western great lakes. Strong storms will
be possible during this period given the dynamics of the shortwave
passing overhead. Rain chances then decrease Tuesday into the
midweek as drier air moves in and flow becomes more zonal.

Marine...

a weak front across central lake huron and lower michigan settles
slowly southward during the day with little marine consequence other
than scattered showers. An isolated thunderstorm is possible near
lake st clair and western lake erie from mid afternoon into early
evening. The pressure field remains weak resulting in light
southwest wind shifting north outside of any storms as the front
moves south of lake erie by evening. A low pressure system moves
along the front across indiana and ohio and brings greater coverage
of showers tonight through Thursday along with a moderate NE wind.

Higher stability across the colder open waters of lake huron is
expected to limit wind gusts to around 20 knots and hold waves just
below advisory threshold. Saginaw bay is the possible exception
where the water temperature is considerably warmer. The low pressure
system exits eastward Thursday night and allows weak high pressure
to build across the region from northern ontario. This brings a
break in rainfall and lighter wind over marine areas while the next
low pressure system organizes over the plains and moves eastward
during the weekend.

Hydrology...

a weak front moving slowly through the area brings scattered showers
to the area today. Showers become more numerous this afternoon south
of i-69 as daytime heating produces instability. Limited duration of
any heavier showers or thunderstorms holds average rainfall totals
to a quarter inch or less from noon to midnight tonight.

After a short break during the evening, a low pressure system moves
from west to east across indiana and ohio along the front stalled
south of the border. This system has potential for locally heavy
rainfall up to about the i-96 696 corridor and most likely from
about 3 am tonight to 3 pm Thursday. Rainfall totals average three
quarter inch in this area with pockets of 1 to 2 inches possible
depending on location of repeated downpours or thunderstorms. This
may lead to short-duration flooding of low-lying and poor drainage
areas and subsequent rises in area rivers and streams given the
rainy conditions of recent days.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... Lakeshore flood advisory until 10 pm edt Thursday for miz048.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Mr
discussion... CB tf
marine... ... .Irl
hydrology... .Irl
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi65 min NNE 7 G 8.9 64°F 1005.1 hPa (-1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi65 min NNE 5.8 G 7.8 63°F 64°F1 ft1003.9 hPa (-0.9)
AGCM4 21 mi53 min 60°F 58°F1004.2 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi53 min 57°F 1004.4 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi53 min NNE 9.9 G 12 55°F 1004.6 hPa53°F
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 49 mi45 min ENE 8 G 8.9 68°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi72 minENE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F75%1003.8 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi69 minN 410.00 miFair63°F62°F98%1004.2 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi67 minNE 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F57°F72%1005.1 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6S6S6SE6S8E10SE7SE8SE7SE5E10NE8NE6NE6NE5NE3
1 day agoNE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE33SE43E7SE7SE5SE6SE8SE6S6S7S3S4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE3N3N4NE3N6N5N4NE3N6E6SE6SE7E3E6E6E6SE5E5E5E3E4NE3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.