Tuesday, June19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
St. Clair Shores, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:52AMSunset 9:13PM Tuesday June 19, 2018 10:08 AM EDT (14:08 UTC) Moonrise 11:37AMMoonset 12:16AM Illumination 36% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 928 Pm Edt Mon Jun 18 2018
Rest of tonight..North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms in the late evening and early morning. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of light showers until late afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday night..North winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..East winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201806190815;;754358 FZUS63 KDTX 190128 GLFSC Lake St Clair Forecast National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 928 PM EDT Mon Jun 18 2018 Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. .SYNOPSIS...A cold front averaging 29.90 inches has reached the southern Michigan border late this evening. This front will remain over the northern Ohio Valley tomorrow as high pressure, 30.00 inches, builds into the northern Great Lakes. LCZ460-190815-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near St. Clair Shores, MI
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location: 42.49, -82.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 191103
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
703 am edt Tue jun 19 2018

Aviation
Clear signal in nwp for building surface high pressure over
southeast michigan. Near surface extension of the cold front will
clear the far southern forecast area at the start of the period,
becoming stationary just south of the border. Collection of
shortwave energy remains hung up along a broader deformation axis
that will remain over the CWA in some fashion today. It is this
boundary that will bring persistentVFR cloud today and a low chance
for low impact light precipitaton. Per regional mosaic trends,
included a tempo group at start of period for a light shower.

Otherwise, favorVFR conditions today. Models then show midlevel
wave causing warm air and moisture aloft to ripple back into
michigan. Easterly surface flow is expected to result in a
relatively high likelihood for northeast flow operations.

For dtw... Some potential continues to exist for a light shower or
drizzle. Confidence in duration and coverage is low. Midcloud will
persist over dtw throughout the day with models showing wave
tracking back not michigan tonight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high for ceilings AOB 5000 feet this overnight, low Tuesday.

* low for thunderstorm activity today.

Prev discussion
Issued at 335 am edt Tue jun 19 2018
discussion...

high pressure continues to build into the region in the wake of
Monday evenings cold frontal passage. Northeasterly flow has ushered
in a cooler and drier airmass providing relief from the hot and
humid conditions over the past few days. 850mb temps have fallen to
around 13c from the 20c they've been hovering around. Thermal
profile will stay fairly steady as the pattern stalls with the cold
front just to our south and a cutoff upper low over the rockies
beginning to meander into the plains. This will produce a pseudo-
zonal pattern aloft with confluence in the mid levels and ridging at
the surface. Current satellite imagery shows the upper level
moisture still in place across lower mi with some light returns on
radar near the ohio border, though the front south of the border
will keep better activity farther south.

Most of today will be dry with only a slight chance of seeing a
stray shower across the far south closer to the frontal surface.

Highs will be a degree or two below normal in the upper 70s today
with the cooler northeast flow and cloud cover around. Models then
indicate a shortwave, currently over iowa, ejecting out of the upper
low and across lower mi tonight into Wednesday morning. This would
attempt to pull the stall front back northward overnight. Moisture
will still be plentiful with pwats around 1.75" and combined with
the shortwave and front, should produce some showers across the
area. Window of highest confidence is around 06-15z tonight into
Wednesday morning but could see some lower coverage showers as early
as this evening. Getting more into the hires windows so should add a
little more clarity by this afternoon. Kept a mention of thunder as
we could see some complex upstream spill over the ridge into the
area providing a bit better organization for convection. Otherwise
model soundings not too promising for convection as lapse rates
are minimal, instability is all south of here, and there remains a
layer of warm air above the surface ridge to deal with.

A mid level trough, backdoor cold front will then sink south through
lower mi Wednesday night through Thursday. This will keep the cooler
northeast flow in place while allowing a second area of high
pressure to build back across the region. This will remain in place
through Friday keeping high temps steady around 80 and keeping the
mid week dry.

Attention then turns toward the aforementioned upper low which by
Friday has drifted into the mid ms valley. Both GFS and euro then
forecast the low to become an open wave while lifting NE through the
great lakes. This slow moving system would result in several periods
of precipitation spanning from late Friday through early Sunday.

These systems are tough to forecast this far out as there is very
little flow across the CONUS so there is a lack of confidence with
steering currents and storm track. In addition, there appears to be
a northern stream trough digging into the great lakes sometime this
weekend which will also influence the outcome.

Marine...

pattern change is underway with the upper level ridge breaking down.

A surface cold front has pushed southward into the northern ohio
river valley. An extended period of easterly winds are now
forecasted, today through Friday at the earliest. Northeast winds of
10 to 15 knots today will veer to the southeast by this evening.

Surface winds on Wednesday are expected to be 15 knots or less.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Cb
discussion... Drk
marine... ... .Cb
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 1 mi129 min NNE 13 G 17 67°F 1016.6 hPa (+1.0)
45147 - Lake St Clair 12 mi69 min NE 12 G 16 67°F 69°F1015.4 hPa (+0.8)
AGCM4 21 mi51 min 67°F 1016.5 hPa
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 42 mi57 min 65°F 1016.8 hPa
FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI 43 mi57 min N 11 G 12 59°F 1017.1 hPa57°F

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI8 mi76 minENE 1110.00 miFair69°F57°F68%1016.4 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI9 mi73 minNE 910.00 miOvercast67°F65°F93%1016.6 hPa
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI16 mi74 minNE 510.00 miFair69°F60°F75%1017.6 hPa

Wind History from DET (wind in knots)
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N11N7N9N12SE8NE7N5N7N8N7N6N7NE9NE11E10
1 day agoW5----W10
G15
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SW12SW11
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SW10S10SW9SW5SW5SW7SW7W8W9W6SW7SW9SW10SW9W8W10
G19
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G19
2 days agoS5S63NW53W6W7W9W6NW4NW3CalmCalmCalmS3SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3SW45

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.