Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for St. Clair Shores, MI
May 15, 2024 8:02 PM EDT (00:02 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:07 AM Sunset 8:48 PM Moonrise 12:02 PM Moonset 1:51 AM |
LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 339 Pm Edt Wed May 15 2024
Tonight - North winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the southeast in the afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear in the evening - .then mostly cloudy with a chance of light showers after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Light showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - East winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy in the morning - .then partly cloudy with a chance of light showers in the afternoon and evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday - South winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ400
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Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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FXUS63 KDTX 152254 AFDDTX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 654 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions into tomorrow.
- Increasing precipitation chances Thursday night with scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms Friday.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, mainly Saturday, with an active weather pattern setting up early to middle of next week.
AVIATION
Some degree of low level moisture will work back west into the area around high pressure to the north overnight into early Thursday as mid/upper level moisture begins to stream in from the west. Will back off on MVFR stratus mention given visible satellite trends late today as clouds over southeast Ontario are pretty sparse. Still, some expansion of MVFR to lower VFR stratus remains possible during the early morning hours. Cigs between 6-12kft will thicken as low pressure shifts from the upper midwest to northern Great Lakes. Any shower activity associated with this moisture feed will hold off until after 00z. Light northeast flow will veer to southeast on Thursday.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this forecast period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling aob 5000 feet early Thursday morning (~09z-13z).
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
DISCUSSION...
A surface low pressure will continue the slow progression eastward today with northeast winds gusting to around 15 knots across most of southeast Michigan this afternoon. Drier air filtering into the region has brought decreasing clouds north of I-96 with lingering clouds to the south with even a hint of elevated smoke from wildfires present across parts of central Michigan. Any low chance of precipitation this afternoon has come to an end with dry conditions expected to hold through this evening and overnight.
Surface high pressure center over Hudson Bay and shortwave ridging aloft passing through Michigan early in the day will help maintain dry conditions through much of the day tomorrow, but high falls will be encroaching into the western/central Great Lakes associated with an upper Midwest trough. Increasing clouds will arrive downstream of this feature during the afternoon into the evening. Lower level moisture advection will ramp up throughout the day as well. Marginal instability tries to develop along the southwestern fringes of the CWA during the afternoon, but synoptic lift is rather weak. This should keep any isolated or scattered showers and possible thunderstorms that may develop during the afternoon to the west of the forecast area. Warm advection throughout tomorrow will bring afternoon high temperatures up a few degrees compared to today into the mid 70s. Weak shortwave energy over Michigan tomorrow night will bring increasing precipitation chances during the overnight period, but any activity should be scattered.
The weakening trough lifting into the northern Great Lakes/Ontario will drag a weakening frontal boundary through the central Great Lakes on Friday with more appreciable chances for rainfall during the morning and afternoon. Models have some increasing instability into the afternoon ahead of this front. MLCAPE values generally around 500-750 J/kg are forecast by the RAP for Friday afternoon.
Bulk shear at 0-6 km will be around the 25-40 knot range. Though, steep mid level lapse rates will be lacking based on the forecast right now. This environment will be supportive of mainly general thunderstorms given the lack of strong forcing.
The start of the weekend will see a southern stream shortwave lift out of the southern plains and into the central/northern Appalachian Mountains while the northern stream jet situates west to east from the PacNW through the upper Midwest. Saturday will see weak surface flow with a relatively warm and moist airmass residing across Michigan. Weak lift in the vicinity of the southern stream trough combining with the diurnal instability may be enough to generate some isolated to possibly scattered convection, though much of the area probably remains dry. Will maintain lower end PoPs of 20-30% for Saturday afternoon. Lead shortwave trough at the front end of the northern stream jet will help drive a cold front through Michigan on Sunday. Confidence decreases in regards to precipitation chances along this front, but it looks like chances will be limited as deeper forcing holds off to the north. Zonal flow pattern sets up for early next week setting up a possible active stretch of weather.
MARINE...
Low pressure exits the Ohio Valley today, keeping fresh northeast flow in place. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Saginaw Bay through 8pm and for the nearshore zones between Port Sanilac and Port Huron through 11pm tonight. Northeast wind over the bay up to 25 knots will continue to die down through the evening hours, and peak hazard conditions have already occurred for that area. High waves are the concern for the Port Sanilac to Port Huron near shore zone. High pressure briefly influences the area Thursday morning, before showers return on Thursday evening into Friday due to low pressure dragging a front across the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are also possible with this event, but other than localized impacts due to these showers/storms, winds are expected to remain gentle at 10 knots, with waves expected to remain low through Friday and into the weekend.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 654 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry conditions into tomorrow.
- Increasing precipitation chances Thursday night with scattered to numerous showers and possible embedded thunderstorms Friday.
- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms over the weekend, mainly Saturday, with an active weather pattern setting up early to middle of next week.
AVIATION
Some degree of low level moisture will work back west into the area around high pressure to the north overnight into early Thursday as mid/upper level moisture begins to stream in from the west. Will back off on MVFR stratus mention given visible satellite trends late today as clouds over southeast Ontario are pretty sparse. Still, some expansion of MVFR to lower VFR stratus remains possible during the early morning hours. Cigs between 6-12kft will thicken as low pressure shifts from the upper midwest to northern Great Lakes. Any shower activity associated with this moisture feed will hold off until after 00z. Light northeast flow will veer to southeast on Thursday.
For DTW/D21 Convection...Thunderstorms are not expected during this forecast period.
DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...
* Low for ceiling aob 5000 feet early Thursday morning (~09z-13z).
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 350 PM EDT Wed May 15 2024
DISCUSSION...
A surface low pressure will continue the slow progression eastward today with northeast winds gusting to around 15 knots across most of southeast Michigan this afternoon. Drier air filtering into the region has brought decreasing clouds north of I-96 with lingering clouds to the south with even a hint of elevated smoke from wildfires present across parts of central Michigan. Any low chance of precipitation this afternoon has come to an end with dry conditions expected to hold through this evening and overnight.
Surface high pressure center over Hudson Bay and shortwave ridging aloft passing through Michigan early in the day will help maintain dry conditions through much of the day tomorrow, but high falls will be encroaching into the western/central Great Lakes associated with an upper Midwest trough. Increasing clouds will arrive downstream of this feature during the afternoon into the evening. Lower level moisture advection will ramp up throughout the day as well. Marginal instability tries to develop along the southwestern fringes of the CWA during the afternoon, but synoptic lift is rather weak. This should keep any isolated or scattered showers and possible thunderstorms that may develop during the afternoon to the west of the forecast area. Warm advection throughout tomorrow will bring afternoon high temperatures up a few degrees compared to today into the mid 70s. Weak shortwave energy over Michigan tomorrow night will bring increasing precipitation chances during the overnight period, but any activity should be scattered.
The weakening trough lifting into the northern Great Lakes/Ontario will drag a weakening frontal boundary through the central Great Lakes on Friday with more appreciable chances for rainfall during the morning and afternoon. Models have some increasing instability into the afternoon ahead of this front. MLCAPE values generally around 500-750 J/kg are forecast by the RAP for Friday afternoon.
Bulk shear at 0-6 km will be around the 25-40 knot range. Though, steep mid level lapse rates will be lacking based on the forecast right now. This environment will be supportive of mainly general thunderstorms given the lack of strong forcing.
The start of the weekend will see a southern stream shortwave lift out of the southern plains and into the central/northern Appalachian Mountains while the northern stream jet situates west to east from the PacNW through the upper Midwest. Saturday will see weak surface flow with a relatively warm and moist airmass residing across Michigan. Weak lift in the vicinity of the southern stream trough combining with the diurnal instability may be enough to generate some isolated to possibly scattered convection, though much of the area probably remains dry. Will maintain lower end PoPs of 20-30% for Saturday afternoon. Lead shortwave trough at the front end of the northern stream jet will help drive a cold front through Michigan on Sunday. Confidence decreases in regards to precipitation chances along this front, but it looks like chances will be limited as deeper forcing holds off to the north. Zonal flow pattern sets up for early next week setting up a possible active stretch of weather.
MARINE...
Low pressure exits the Ohio Valley today, keeping fresh northeast flow in place. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Saginaw Bay through 8pm and for the nearshore zones between Port Sanilac and Port Huron through 11pm tonight. Northeast wind over the bay up to 25 knots will continue to die down through the evening hours, and peak hazard conditions have already occurred for that area. High waves are the concern for the Port Sanilac to Port Huron near shore zone. High pressure briefly influences the area Thursday morning, before showers return on Thursday evening into Friday due to low pressure dragging a front across the Great Lakes. Thunderstorms are also possible with this event, but other than localized impacts due to these showers/storms, winds are expected to remain gentle at 10 knots, with waves expected to remain low through Friday and into the weekend.
DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LHZ421-422.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for LHZ443.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI | 1 mi | 63 min | NE 8G | 63°F | 29.83 | |||
| AGCM4 | 21 mi | 45 min | 61°F | 52°F | 29.79 | |||
| MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI | 42 mi | 45 min | 58°F | 29.81 | ||||
| FTGM4 - 9014098 - Fort Gratiot, MI | 43 mi | 45 min | N 17G | 55°F | 29.81 | 44°F | ||
| PBWM4 | 43 mi | 45 min | 55°F | 29.81 | ||||
| THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH | 49 mi | 63 min | E 8.9G | 63°F | 29.78 | 58°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDET COLEMAN A YOUNG MUNI,MI | 8 sm | 69 min | NE 11 | 10 sm | Clear | 73°F | 50°F | 44% | 29.80 | |
| KMTC SELFRIDGE ANGB,MI | 9 sm | 66 min | NNE 10 | 10 sm | A Few Clouds | 68°F | 48°F | 49% | 29.79 | |
| CYQG WINDSOR,CN | 15 sm | 62 min | NE 14G20 | 9 sm | Clear | 68°F | 52°F | 56% | 29.80 | |
| KVLL OAKLAND/TROY,MI | 16 sm | 27 min | N 08 | 10 sm | Clear | 70°F | 46°F | 43% | 29.85 |
Detroit, MI,
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