Tuesday, May22, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 9:05PM Tuesday May 22, 2018 11:38 PM EDT (03:38 UTC) Moonrise 12:48PMMoonset 1:50AM Illumination 58% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1059 Pm Edt Tue May 22 2018
.dense fog advisory in effect until 11 am edt Wednesday...
Rest of tonight..West winds around 5 knots backing southwest toward daybreak. Mostly cloudy. Areas of dense fog. Waves 1 foot or less.
Wednesday..South winds around 5 knots veering west. Mostly Sunny. Areas of dense fog until midday. Waves less than 1 foot.
Wednesday night..North winds around 5 knots veering southeast after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves less than 1 foot.
Thursday..Southeast winds around 5 knots veering southwest, then veering northwest late in the day. Sunny. Waves calm.
LMZ845 Expires:201805230915;;384364 FZUS53 KGRR 230259 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1059 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-230915-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 230310
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
1110 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
latest update...

update

Synopsis
Issued at 323 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
the sky is expected to clear by early this evening. That will
allow extensive fog to develop overnight. Mostly clear skies and
warming temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday. Expect a
summer like weather pattern over the memorial day weekend.

Thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening. Otherwise highs will
be well up into the 80s each day through Monday.

Update
Issued at 1109 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
a difficult stratus and fog scenario tonight. Areas of dense fog
continue over some of the nearshore marine area south of muskegon.

Otherwise, skies are clear inland with little if any fog at 11pm.

Feeling is we will likely see some light fog develop inland at
least with visibilities of 2 to 5 miles. The question mark is what
happens in the lakeshore counties. Goes-16 imagery shows some fog
across ottawa and muskegon counites, but little elsewhere.

Thinking there will be some expansion of the fog in the lakeshore
counties, but how much and how dense are question marks. Given the
uncertainty here, will hold off on any advisory on the land. The
most likely location for a possible dense fog advisory would be
toward the lakeshore overnight. We will be monitoring satellite
and observations going forward.

Short term (this evening through Thursday)
issued at 323 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
the only significant weather of concern is the fog areas of dense
fog I expect during the early to mid morning hours of Wednesday.

Once that fog is gone high pressure will provide light winds and
mostly clear skies
the upper trough that has allowed the system that brought a
soaking rain to the area yesterday into last night has moved east
and is being replaced by a large upper ridge. That upper ridge is
being built and forced east by a large pacific systems moving
toward alaska. That will also force the closed upper low out of
the SW conus. All of that ridge building forces a lot of
subsidence over lower michigan so I would expect mostly clear
skies and light wind Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will
warm each day. Highs should be close to 80 by Thursday afternoon.

Long term (Thursday night through Tuesday) issued at 323 pm
edt Tue may 22 2018
a pattern change to a more prolonged period of more summer-like
weather can be expected in the longer term portion of the forecast,
which includes the memorial holiday weekend. We can expect
persistent warmer temperatures along with a small chance of mainly
afternoon evening storm chances.

We do not expect much rain before Saturday for most of the area. The
upper ridge building in behind the trough moving through today will
hold to our west and eventually over the area through fri. This will
continue the dry weather and warmer temps that starts off in the
short term.

The chance of rain will start out on Saturday, with much of the area
seeing scattered coverage. Areas toward clare may see a bit better
coverage as a short wave clips that area. The rest of the area will
see more humid conditions develop, and resulting instability as the
low level flow comes in from the gulf and the developing tropical
system. Much of the day will be at least partly sunny with just a
few pop up showers storms for inland areas.

Sunday through Tuesday will not see much change in the weather as
the upper air pattern will become a bit amplified and stagnant.

Upper low over the great basin, strong downstream upper ridge over
the plains, and the tropical system near the gulf, will all hold the
pattern in. This will continue the warm weather in the 80s for the
area with small afternoon evening pop up storm chances each day.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Wednesday evening)
issued at 812 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
skies are clearing from north to south this evening as MVFR
ceilings push south towards in oh. Stratus is located along the
lake michigan shoreline, and at this point is even west of kmkg.

The clearing trend should take skies clear at all TAF sites by 02z
or so. The question them becomes do we see a filling back in of
the stratus and develop fog. Thinking that kmkg and kjxn stand the
best chance at seeing ifr or lower conditions developing tonight.

Those two TAF sites we took conditions lower, to ifr. The other
sites expecting conditions to dip into the MVFR category. Winds
will be calm through the night with high pressure in place.VFR
weather is expected from mid morning on, on Wednesday.

Marine
Issued at 323 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
the latest visible satellite images show the fog continues in the
near shore and the muskegon web came as well as michigan city show
the dense fog continues so I will leave the dense fog advisory as
is. It may have to extended.

Otherwise winds will be light so no need for small craft
advisories through Thursday.

Hydrology
Issued at 1234 pm edt Tue may 22 2018
a half inch to over an inch of rain fell yesterday into today.

This will lead to some rises on area rivers. However, only minor
flooding should occur. We should remain dry until the weekend. This
will allow rivers to recover a bit before rainfall returns.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Dense fog advisory until 11 am edt Wednesday for lmz844>848.

Update... Duke
synopsis... Wdm
short term... Wdm
long term... Njj
aviation... Duke
hydrology... 63
marine... Wdm


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi38 min S 2.9 G 2.9 45°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi50 min SSW 1 G 1.9 45°F 1018.2 hPa45°F
45168 48 mi38 min SSE 1.9 G 3.9 45°F 51°F1 ft1019.8 hPa (+1.0)42°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi38 min Calm G 0 48°F 1020 hPa (+1.0)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi38 min WSW 9.9 G 11 46°F 1019.7 hPa (+1.6)46°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi45 minWSW 310.00 miFair56°F53°F90%1018.2 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi45 minN 010.00 miFair55°F51°F87%1018.4 hPa

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7SE6SE3S3S4CalmCalmCalmCalmS3W6W6W7W11W13NW11NW9NW11NW9NW8NW7W4NW5W3
1 day agoE3E4E4E4E7E5E6E5E8SE10E9E9
G15
E6CalmE8SE4NE63E8E7E7E7SE5SE9
2 days agoW8NW8NW8NW6NW4N7N8NE6NE6NE6N4NE3NE5NE6NE5N3NE6NE8N10E6NE7E7E5E3

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (23,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.