Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
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9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 7:26AMSunset 7:45PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 10:11 PM EDT (02:11 UTC) Moonrise 4:08PMMoonset 12:59AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 943 Pm Edt Wed Sep 19 2018
.gale watch in effect from late Thursday night through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..Southeast winds 5 to 15 knots. Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers in the evening, then a chance of rain showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..South winds 5 to 15 knots increasing to 15 to 20 knots late in the day. Rain showers likely and a slight chance of Thunderstorms until midday, then mostly Sunny with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Thursday night..South winds to 30 knots. Partly cloudy with a slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 to 4 feet building to 5 to 7 feet after midnight.
Friday..Northwest winds to 30 knots. Partly Sunny. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms until midday, then a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201809200915;;908387 FZUS53 KGRR 200143 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 943 PM EDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-200915-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 192348
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
748 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
latest update...

aviation

Synopsis
Issued at 229 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
a deepening area of low pressure in the western plains will track
northeast tonight through Thursday... Into the western great lakes
region for Friday. This system will result in several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms over the next couple of days. The cold
front associated with this system pushes through the area early
Friday with gusty winds and cooler temperatures to follow.

Short term (this evening through Friday night)
issued at 229 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
a warm front will be developing over the region tonight and is
shown to lift north of the region on Thursday. A stronger low
level jet intersects this front initially upstream over in
wisconsin later tonight. Instability will be in place. Thus
elevated showers and thunderstorms should form upstream
overnight... Then track along this frontal zone into western lower
mi closer to daybreak Thursday. There is a fairly strong signal in
the high res models suggesting these showers and thunderstorms
will cross the CWA Thursday morning into possibly the early
afternoon hours. The combination of stronger deep layer shear and
some instability could support organization to convection. Thus a
few of the storms could be strong to possibly severe. A few hours
of training cells coupled with pwat values up over 1.75 inches may
support a localized increased flood risk. This morning convection
could impact how warm temperatures go on Thursday. Overall any
warming looks to be later in the day with only slowly rising or
nearly steady temperatures for the morning.

We are still looking at a lull in the convection for Thursday
afternoon or possibly through the evening. However, this potential
could be altered by the morning convection. Favorable shear only
becomes stronger through the night. Thus if any convection does
develop... It will need to be monitored closely for the possibility
of severe weather. We will feature much lower pops for the
afternoon and evening as compared to the morning.

Guidance shows the line of storms that forms upstream Thursday
afternoon and evening... Decreasing considerably before moving into
the CWA later Thursday night. Very strong deep layer shear will be
in place... So despite decreasing instability... Some risk does
exist for severe weather.

Wind fields around the deepening low remain strong into Friday.

Thus as the cold air advection increases... The mixing height will
reach into these stronger winds. Thus Friday is looking like a
windy day with some gusts up to around 40 mph possible.

Long term (Saturday through Wednesday)
issued at 229 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
models are in relative agreement in showing mid level height rises
over the weekend. At the surface a large area of high pressure
tracks eastward through ontario. This will result in an easterly
component to the wind and a relatively dry airmass. We will keep
the forecast dry as a result. Cooler than normal temperatures are
expected with some overnight lows approaching the 30s for
interior northern parts of the CWA for Sunday morning.

A deep mid level trough is shown to evolve over the western u.S.

Monday. Here in the great lakes region a strong southerly low
level flow sets up. This will draw up increasing amounts of
moisture which could lead to some showers. Surface temperatures
will be moderating as well with near normal high temperatures
likely.

The associated surface low takes a track up through the western
great lakes region Monday night and swings a cold front through
the area on Tuesday. Thus the potential for showers will continue.

We will need to monitor the potential for thunderstorms given the
dynamics and instability that may develop. A cooling trend to the
temperatures will be featured in the forecast as colder air
filters in from the northwest behind this front.

Aviation (for the 00z tafs through 00z Thursday evening)
issued at 749 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
we currently haveVFR conditions prevailing across the southwest
michigan TAF sites. There are two issues tonight to watch. The
first is where does the convection associated with the warm front
pushing northward Thursday actually track? In a similar way, with
that warm front, will there be the typical band of low clouds
(MVFR ifr cigs) just north of the front during the morning?
there still remains questions as to just how that convection will
track once it develops overnight. Currently there is weakening
area of showers over southern lake michigan. They should die as
they move inland, well south of our TAF sites. Upstream we have
stronger convection developing over northeast iowa that should
track mostly to the east and reach southwest michigan near i-96
around 12z. I was not sure just were the stronger storms will be,
for now I put mkg closer to the stronger storms but I could end up
that grr and even btl and azo are impacted. All of the storms
should be north of our TAF sites by 18z or so.

The low clouds will more than likely get as far south as i-96 but
i do not think they will get to i-94 so I wrote the taf's that
way. Once the warm front comes through skies should become mostly
clear.

Marine
Issued at 229 pm edt Wed sep 19 2018
we will hoist a gale watch for Thursday evening through Friday.

The deepening area of low pressure that tracks through the great
lakes region will result in a tightening pressure gradient.

Initially in the warm air advection Thursday the southerly low
level jet may support a few hours of gales. A lull in the gale
winds may happen later Thursday night but with stronger cold air
advection developing for Friday the winds will increase once
again.

Hydrology
Issued at 1056 am edt Wed sep 19 2018
river levels are around to a little above normal for the time of
year. Levels are also steady or slowly falling. Rain and
thunderstorms are expected late Wednesday night into Thursday
morning and again Thursday night into Friday morning. Total rainfall
will range up to around two inches through Friday. Local totals
could be higher, if thunderstorms train over the same area. Rainfall
rates in excess of one inch per hour are possible. The quick-hitting
nature of these rounds of heavy rain will be more likely to cause
localized flooding on roads, in low-lying areas, and along small
creeks, than flooding of streams and rivers. Drier weather is
expected Friday afternoon through Sunday.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Gale watch from late Thursday night through Friday evening for
lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Mjs
short term... Mjs
long term... Mjs
aviation... Wdm
hydrology... 63
marine... Mjs


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi42 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 67°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi42 min ENE 4.1 G 5.1 58°F1015.7 hPa
45168 48 mi32 min NNE 3.9 G 3.9 66°F 67°F1 ft1015.7 hPa62°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi72 min N 1 G 1.9 68°F 1015.9 hPa (-1.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi32 min E 7 G 9.9 68°F 1016.3 hPa64°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi19 minSE 710.00 miFair72°F63°F73%1016.7 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi19 minN 07.00 miFair70°F64°F82%1016.3 hPa

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNW9CalmN3CalmN4N7NE9NE7NE5E5NE5E4S6S5CalmW3SW44N5W4E3SE5SE7
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW7SW7W8NW8NW8NW10NW13
G16
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2 days agoSE6SE6SE4CalmCalmSE3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmNE45N5N7N7N5W3NW7W3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.