Thursday, October18, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Delton, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:58AMSunset 6:56PM Thursday October 18, 2018 2:09 PM EDT (18:09 UTC) Moonrise 3:21PMMoonset 12:38AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ845 South Haven To Holland Mi- 1032 Am Edt Thu Oct 18 2018
.small craft advisory in effect through Saturday morning...
Rest of today..South winds around 10 knots veering southwest 10 to 20 knots, then increasing to 20 to 25 knots late in the day. Sunny. Waves 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 5 feet late in the day.
Tonight..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Friday..Southwest winds to 30 knots. Mostly Sunny until midday then becoming mostly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 8 feet.
Friday night..Southwest winds to 30 knots veering northwest after midnight. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A chance of rain showers. Waves 6 to 9 feet.
LMZ845 Expires:201810182130;;372416 FZUS53 KGRR 181432 NSHGRR Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 1032 AM EDT Thu Oct 18 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ845-182130-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Delton, MI
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location: 42.49, -85.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Grand Rapids, MI
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Fxus63 kgrr 181731
afdgrr
area forecast discussion
national weather service grand rapids mi
131 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
latest update...

aviation hydro

Synopsis
Issued at 330 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
temperatures will rebound slightly today and Friday but another
cold front will usher in more blustery weather for the weekend.

Sunny skies today will give way to increasing clouds and rain
showers on Friday, followed by mixed rain and snow showers on
Saturday. Temperatures will remain cool next week, although
mostly dry weather is expected.

Discussion (today through next Wednesday)
issued at 330 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
freeze warning is playing out well with just about every
observation site reporting sub freezing temperatures at 3 am and
still several hours of prime radiational cooling to go. That will
end the growing season and frost freeze headlines will no longer
be issued going forward once the current one expires.

Sunshine will help send temps back up near 50 today although
increasing southwest winds this afternoon will temper that
"warmth", particularly from grr north and west where winds will
be strongest. Breezy conditions continuing on Friday and temps
could make a run at 60 depending on how quick clouds thicken up
and when showers arrive. Will have highest pops north and west of
grr in the afternoon as lead shortwave and cold front approach.

Potent shortwave diving south from canada tracks through wisconsin
and into indiana on Saturday. Some very cold air aloft (-32c at h5
and -10c at h8) and steep lapse rates are associated with this
wave, so potential for snow certainly exists. Fcst soundings show
no inversion present aloft with deep moisture present Saturday
afternoon and early evening.

While progged sfc temps in the lower to mid 40s Saturday do not
support snow as a precip type, the convective nature of the
precipitation (boosted by moderate to extreme lake induced
instability) may lead to occasional briefly heavier bursts of
snow occurring. Stronger convective downdrafts could help drag
down the colder air aloft at times, so precip type may alternate
between rain and snow. Little or no impact is expected though with
warm road temps, but a coating on the grass in places is
certainly possible.

Things calm down later Saturday night as lake effect becomes
focused along the immediate coast and inversion heights lower with
arrival of anticyclonic flow. Still some lingering lake clouds on
Sunday with h8 thermal trough lingering overhead. Not much
excitement in the longer term. Cooler air mass lingers but no
major systems anticipated.

Aviation (for the 18z tafs through 18z Friday afternoon)
issued at 132 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
vfr weather will continue through Friday. Southwest winds will
blow to around 10 to 15 kts through the night, although at kmkg
and other sites near lake michigan stronger winds of 12-22 kts
will be experienced through Saturday evening.

Marine
Issued at 330 am edt Thu oct 18 2018
although a brief lull is currently occurring over lk mi,
increasing winds and waves this afternoon support a continuation
of small craft advisories. Hazardous conditions will continue
through most of the weekend. Gale force winds are even possible
at times, so a period or two of gale warnings may be needed over
the next few days.

Hydrology
Issued at 128 pm edt Thu oct 18 2018
precipitation through the middle of next week should have little
impact on water levels in area rivers and streams. Meanwhile, water
levels continue to remain steady or slowly fall. This trend is
likely to continue for most locations, but we could see a small rise
on smaller rivers and streams Saturday where the heaviest
precipitation falls.

Showers Friday and Friday night will only bring light amounts of
rain to the area. On Saturday, a stronger trough of low pressure
will bring up to one-half inch of liquid water (combination of rain
and melted snow graupel) to portions of lower michigan. The location
of this heavier swath of precipitation is still uncertain, but looks
to fall somewhere between the southern state line and m-10.

Grr watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Saturday for lmz844>849.

Synopsis... Meade
discussion... Meade
aviation... 63
hydrology... Hlo
marine... Meade


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
SVNM4 - South Haven, MI 46 mi40 min SSW 12 G 14 49°F
HLNM4 - 9087031 - Holland, MI 46 mi40 min S 14 G 18 49°F 54°F1031.1 hPa33°F
45168 48 mi30 min W 9.7 G 18 50°F 59°F2 ft1033.1 hPa35°F
SJOM4 - St. Joseph, MI 63 mi70 min SW 11 G 14 52°F 1033.9 hPa (+0.4)
MKGM4 - Muskegon, MI 70 mi30 min SW 14 G 16 49°F 1032.1 hPa39°F

Wind History for Holland, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
W K Kellogg Airport, MI16 mi77 minno data10.00 miFair49°F30°F50%1034 hPa
Kalamazoo/Battle Creek International Airport, MI18 mi77 minWSW 710.00 miFair49°F30°F48%1034.2 hPa

Wind History from BTL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW15
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NW6W6SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6S6------
1 day agoSW18SW16
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SW12SW11SW9SW12SW13SW11--SW12SW10SW7SW8W6W4W3NW3N7NW8NW10
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2 days agoW15
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W9W5SW5SW5S5S4SW6SW6SW5S5SW6SW8S9SW9S11SW14SW21
G28
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SW17

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Grand Rapids, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Grand Rapids/Muskegon, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.