Wednesday, May24, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:17PM Tuesday May 23, 2017 11:12 PM CDT (04:12 UTC) Moonrise 4:13AMMoonset 5:41PM Illumination 2% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 854 Pm Cdt Tue May 23 2017
Rest of tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots after midnight. Patchy fog. Occasional showers. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet early in the morning.
Wednesday..North wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Scattered showers. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Wednesday night..North wind 15 to 20 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Thursday..North wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201705241015;;106918 FZUS53 KMKX 240154 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 854 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-241015-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 240239
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
939 pm cdt Tue may 23 2017

Update Strong upper level divergence which produced widespread
showers and a few storms during the late afternoon and early
evening is shifting to the northeast. Heavy rainfall may have
caused localized flooding in the fond du lac area and between the
dells and reedsburg in sauk county. Weakening showers over western
cwa still showing little movement but as surface and upper low
slide further south, would expect these showers to begin shiftin
wsw. Report of patchy fog around beloit via facebook but
increasing northerly winds and developing low clouds should
prevent fog from becoming widespread overnight. Expect scattered
showers to linger over portions of the area as upper level
deformation weakens and slides south.

Marine Webcams show the dense fog has lifted over the northern
near shore zone north of port washington. As winds increase from
the northeast ushering in cooler, slightly drier air, thinking fog
will remain more patchy over the near shore waters. Dewpoints
falling into the mid 40s which is near lake michigan water surface
temperature. Low pressure passing by to the south will result in a
tightening pressure gradient and increasing north to northeast
winds late tonight into Wednesday. Winds and waves will get close
to small craft advisory levels.

Prev discussion (issued 635 pm cdt Tue may 23 2017)
aviation(00z tafs)... Widespread showers over eastern CWA will
become more scattered in the south as drier air edges in from the
west. Showers will persist in the northern CWA due to lingering
mid-level deformation as upper low shifts southward. As low level winds
become more ene, expect lower CIGS over northeast CWA to spread
west and southwest.

Prev discussion... (issued 337 pm cdt Tue may 23 2017)
short term...

tonight and Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

500 mb low will continue to slowly slide southeast from north
central iowa into northeast missouri tonight. It will then slide
further to the southeast on Wednesday. Differential cyclonic
vorticity advection from several vorticity maxima will continue to
aid upward vertical motion into tonight. In addition, there will
be some low level confluence convergence from the passing weak
surface low.

Numerous showers should continue across portions of the area into
this evening. They should become more scattered later tonight
into Wednesday. Forecast soundings support some weak low level
cape with steep low to mid level lapse rates and cold 500 mb
temperatures. Thus, kept the isolated thunder wording into this
evening. Small hail and brief heavy rainfall will continue to be
possible with any storms.

Cloudy skies and scattered showers tonight into Wednesday should
keep lows in the upper 40s tonight, with highs Wednesday in the
50s lakeside to around 60 well inland.

Wednesday night through Friday... Forecast confidence medium.

Low pressure will be in the vicinity of lake erie for Wed nt-thu
while the upper low tracks from the central ms river valley to the
east coast. A new round of cyclogenesis will then occur over new
england Thu nt with sfc high pressure finally settling over wi.

Until then, sct showers will linger Wed nt-thu am especially over
ern wi. A weak shortwave trough will then track across SRN wi on
fri while the tail end of a canadian cold front approaches from
the NW with a warm front extending from mo to in to the south.

Overall, only slight chances of showers over south central wi due
to weak lift. Temps will be near or slightly below normal during
this period.

Long term... Saturday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence
medium.

Another large upper low will settle over ontario, canada and the
nrn great lakes for the weekend into early next week. Thus,
chances of showers will continue with temps near or slightly below
normal.

Aviation(18z tafs)...

showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to continue to
develop over the area this afternoon, lingering into this evening.

Small hail and brief heavy rainfall are possible in any of the
storms, as well as some cloud to ground lightning. Scattered
showers may linger later tonight into Wednesday as well.

Ceilings should becomeVFR category for a few hours this
afternoon, before lowering to MVFR category later this afternoon
into this evening. Low ceilings around or below alternate minimums
are expected southwestward into the area this evening, lingering
into Wednesday morning before improving back above 1000 feet above
ground level.

Light fog is expected to push southwestward onshore near lake
michigan later this afternoon and this evening, lingering later
tonight. Visibilities down to around 2 miles are anticipated, with
lower values possible. These should improve above 6 miles by
later Wednesday morning.

Marine...

dense fog has developed across the northern marine zone near
sheboygan, per web cameras and coast guard observations. Thus,
issued a dense fog advisory until 03z Wednesday. This may need to
be extended, until north to northeast winds increase later
tonight. Some fog should develop over the rest of the nearshore
waters of lake michigan into tonight as well, until increasing
north to northeast winds develop later tonight.

The pressure gradient will increase Wednesday into early Wednesday
evening, as the surface low moves further to the southeast of the
region. Gusty north to northeast winds are expected by later
Wednesday morning into early Wednesday evening. Frequent gusts to
around 25 knots appear likely during this time. This will help
generate elevated waves of 3 to 5 feet as well. A small craft
advisory will likely be needed during this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update aviation marine... mbk
tonight Wednesday... Wood
Wednesday night through Tuesday... Mg


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi72 min E 1.9 G 2.9 54°F 1006.1 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi32 min N 4.1 G 5.1 51°F
45174 30 mi22 min 7.8 G 7.8 51°F 53°F1 ft50°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi22 min N 8 G 9.9 45°F
FSTI2 40 mi132 min E 2.9 54°F
45013 43 mi33 min N 14 G 16 45°F 1006.3 hPa
OKSI2 44 mi132 min E 1 56°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi22 min NNE 6 G 7 55°F 53°F
CNII2 48 mi12 min N 2.9 G 5.1 55°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi19 minENE 410.00 miOvercast53°F51°F93%1005.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi17 minENE 45.00 miFog/Mist52°F52°F100%1005 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi19 minN 71.75 miFog/Mist48°F46°F93%1006.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi17 minNE 310.00 miOvercast61°F61°F100%1005.4 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW8SW8SW10SW6S8SW7SW8SW12SW9SW8SW7SW7SW11S12S8S10SE12S12SE7SE6CalmE4E7NE4
1 day agoW12W13W11W11W13W11W10W10W11W16
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W5CalmSW14
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2 days agoE3E3E6E4SE5S3W9SW10W14
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.