Sunday, April30, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 5:44AMSunset 7:53PM Sunday April 30, 2017 11:42 AM CDT (16:42 UTC) Moonrise 9:36AMMoonset 12:00AM Illumination 22% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 947 Am Cdt Sun Apr 30 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Tuesday afternoon...
Rest of today..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots. Gusts up to 25 knots. Areas of drizzle late in the morning. Chance of showers in the late morning and early afternoon, then showers and a chance of Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 5 to 7 feet in the afternoon.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then veering southeast after midnight veering south early in the morning. Gusts up to 25 knots. Rain showers and a chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers likely and slight chance of Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Monday..South wind 10 to 20 knots becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots. Chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Monday night..Southwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming west 15 to 25 knots in the late evening and overnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201704302230;;508110 FZUS53 KMKX 301447 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 947 AM CDT SUN APR 30 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ646-302230-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 301454 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
954 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017

Update
Decided to cut back on precip chances and amounts through early
afternoon based on radar trends and latest meso models. Areas of
drizzle will likely persist through at least the morning,
especially east of madison. Still looks like a surge of showers
and a few storms can be expected to arrive from the south by late
afternoon, persisting into the evening hours. Temperatures won't
budge much through the day today, mainly hanging out in the low
40s.

Marine
A small craft advisory remains in effect through much of Tuesday
given persistent breezy winds. Waves will eventually ease a bit by
mon/tue as winds become along shore to offshore.

Prev discussion (issued 753 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017)
update...

have cut back on rainfall amounts especially this morning. The
second band has pushed into the far southeast, but amounts are
lighter.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

ifr/lifr CIGS and ifr/MVFR vsbys much of the day and evening.

Looks like a little break in the precip until afternoon when more
rainfall is anticipated to move through. Kept chance for
thunderstorms mainly during the evening.

Ceilings will gradually rise to MVFR especially south areas late
tonight behind an occluded front.

Prev discussion... (issued 310 am cdt Sun apr 30 2017)
today and tonight... Forecast confidence is high.

An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected, with the most
over the far southeast. This will continue to cause area rivers
to rise, with several expected to reach flood stage. Also the far
south is now in a marginal risk of severe, mainly early evening.

The upper trough will continue to deepen, as it takes on a
slightly negative tilt and progresses northeastward. The upper
trough develops a closed low as it tracks across central kansas
today.

The strong southern stream jet of 120 knots will develop on the
eastern flank of the trough by afternoon, setting up a coupled jet
situation over southern wisconsin. Meanwhile, the surface and mid
level low will continue to deepen and move to the northeast. The
elevated warm front above 850 mb will push to the north, remaining
over southern wisconsin through afternoon.

Strong moisture advection will take place as the upper levels of
the warm front gradually push north of the area, with pwats
reaching as high as 1.50" by this afternoon. Meanwhile, the 850
mb warm front is closer to the illinois border through the
afternoon, with the core of a 60 knot low level jet pushing
across indiana toward evening, and over the eastern great lakes
overnight. The convection allowing models have been showing a
consistent signal of a lull in the precipitation into mid morning,
which is occurring.

Precipitation will push back in later this morning, as the
surface front approaches the southern wisconsin. Most of the
guidance is showing at least some MUCAPE by late afternoon,
especially far south, so left the chance mention of thunder in the
forecast for the afternoon.

Expect showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to be occuring
during the evening. Low pressure moving along occluding front will
have considerable synoptic lift as it passes across northern il
and southern wi this evening. Models now have more elevated
instability, and due to strength of lift, will raise the chance of
tstorms during the evening, as low level jet pivots across
southern wi where low level thermal ribbon will be draped.

Expect showers to diminish in areal coverage behind the occluded
front overnight as mid-level drier air wraps northward around
parent low circulation in the central plains. This will end the
thunder threat by late evening or shortly after midnight.

Monday through Tuesday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Occluded surface low, along with associated cutoff 500 mb low,
will shift slowly northeastward across wisconsin on Monday, then
to the northeast Monday night and Tuesday. Differential cyclonic
vorticity advection, with several vorticity maxima within the 500
mb low, will likely bring light rain showers Monday.

Area forecast soundings from nam/gfs support the shower activity,
with very weak low level instability and saturated moisture
profiles. Kept likely pops for Monday, and may need higher values
if forecast remains consistent.

These showers should slowly taper off Monday night into Tuesday
morning, as drier air starts to move into the area. Low clouds are
likely to linger Monday into Tuesday, before some breaks occur
Tuesday night. Gusty southwest winds will bring cold air advection
into the area Monday, with winds veering west by Tuesday and
remaining gusty.

Highs should remain in the upper 40s to lower 50s Monday and
Tuesday, with lows in the upper 30s Monday night. If skies clear
out enough Tuesday night, lows may drop into the middle 30s
inland, and allow for frost to form.

Wednesday through Saturday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models in this period are showing a fairly dry pattern setting up,
with northwest to northerly flow at 500 mb across the area. There
is a 500 mb shortwave trough that moves eastward across the area
late Wednesday night into Thursday, which may bring a shower.

However, there is some uncertainty with how this feature will
evolve. Kept most of the area dry during this time.

Low pressure remains well to the southeast of the area later in
the week, with weak high pressure over most of the region. Thus,
kept the dry forecast going for Friday into Saturday. Temperatures
should gradually warm closer to seasonal normals by later in the
week or during the weekend.

Aviation(06z tafs)...

another round of rain is moving through most places right now and
will wind down from south to north 06-08z. Looks like a little
break in the precip then until around daybreak Sunday when yet
another slug of rainfall is anticipated to move through. Expecting
locations east of madison will see the most with this round.

Widespread showers will then likely develop from the south by late
afternoon and continue into the evening. Kept chance for thunder
going with this batch of showers.

Ceilings will continue to lower tonight from south to north, with
low ceilings expected through the day Sunday. Some lower
visibilities of 2-4 miles are possible at times with the moderate
rainfall.

Marine...

the gale warning will expire at 4 am cdt. A small craft advisory
will then be in effect into Tuesday afternoon. The strong surface
low will track across wisconsin Monday. The northeast to east
winds will become lighter as the low approaches, but then pick up
behind an occluded front tonight. Brisk southwest to west winds
are then expected, with a few gale gusts possible later Monday
and Monday night. Waves will eventually ease a bit by
Monday/Tuesday, as winds become offshore.

Hydrology...

another 1.00 to 2.00 inches of rainfall is forecast across the
area for today into Monday night, with most of it falling today
into this evening. The lowest amounts would be in the western
counties, with the highest over far southeast wisconsin, toward
the racine and kenosha areas.

This will continue to result in rising river stages across the
area for the next several days, with some reaching minor to
possibly moderate flood stage. The main concern will be across the
southern fox and root river basins, which are expected to receive
the heaviest rainfall. There are several flood warnings and
watches in effect for area rivers in these basins, as well as for
parts of the rock river basin.

There may be some minor street and lowland flooding that occurs
as well. Did not see much impact from the first round of rain from
overnight, so did not issue an areal flood watch for today into
tonight at this time.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 5 pm cdt Tuesday for lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
today/tonight and aviation/marine... Hentz
Monday through Saturday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi43 min NNE 13 G 15 42°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.3)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi63 min NNE 14 G 16 42°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi33 min NNE 15 G 19 40°F
FSTI2 40 mi103 min N 23 44°F
OKSI2 44 mi103 min N 8 46°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi73 min N 8 G 8 45°F 45°F
CNII2 48 mi28 min NNW 8 G 12 45°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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N18
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SW11
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi50 minNE 110.75 miFog/Mist43°F41°F93%1012.3 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi48 minNE 90.75 miFog/Mist43°F43°F100%1011.4 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi50 minNNE 91.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist42°F39°F92%1013.4 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi48 minNE 85.00 miFog/Mist46°F46°F100%1012.2 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS7SE8E7E8E6E7NE5NE5N4N7NE7NE6NE5NE8NE7NE7NE14
G21
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2 days agoW23
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W8SW13SW11W16W11W11W7W4SW4W4W5SW6S3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.