Saturday, March25, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.
3/12/2015 - Added section for Gulf current for users in the GMZ marine zones.
This was requested by a user. If you have requests, please let me know.

Sunrise 6:42AMSunset 7:12PM Saturday March 25, 2017 6:29 PM CDT (23:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:31AMMoonset 4:35PM Illumination 3% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 28 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 North Point Light To Wind Point Wi- Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 300 Pm Cdt Sat Mar 25 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
.dense fog advisory in effect until 10 am cdt Sunday...
Tonight..East wind 15 to 20 knots with gusts to around 25 knots diminishing to 10 to 20 knots after midnight. Areas of dense fog. Periods of showers in the evening... Then chance of rain after midnight. Waves 5 to 7 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet.
Sunday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots becoming east 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then backing northeast late in the afternoon. Areas of dense fog in the morning, then patchy fog in the afternoon. Rain in the morning, then chance of rain in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Sunday night..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots. Areas of fog. Chance of rain. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Patchy fog. Slight chance of rain. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201703260415;;070495 FZUS53 KMKX 252000 NSHMKX NEARSHORE MARINE FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 300 PM CDT SAT MAR 25 2017 FOR WATERS WITHIN FIVE NAUTICAL MILES OF SHORE ON LAKE MICHIGAN LMZ645-646-260415-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 252018
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee/sullivan wi
315 pm cdt Sat mar 25 2017

Tonight and Sunday - forecast confidence Medium.

A closed upper low over missouri will drift across illinois on
Sunday. The weakening surface low will take a similar path, with the
center reaching southern lake michigan Sunday afternoon. Periods of
rain associated with vorticity advection will traverse southern wi
from south to north through Sunday.

The next wave of showers is currently over east central il which
should affect at least southeast wi (not sure how much of south
central wi) from late afternoon through early evening. It looks like
there could be a lull in the precip for the late evening hours, then
another round of more widespread showers is anticipated in southern
wi late tonight into Sunday morning as the upper low gets closer.

Expect low clouds and areas of fog and drizzle in between the rain
all night and through the day Sunday. There is a chance for dense
fog, especially near the lakeshore later tonight into Sunday morning
as winds become light.

Sunday night through Tuesday - forecast confidence Medium to
high.

Expect low pressure to further weaken and occlude over the central
great lakes Sunday night. However northern CWA will be close enough
to lingering mid-level circulation to warrant continuing a chance
for some light rain during the evening. This system will finally
get nudged far enough east of the area by late Sunday night ending
the light rain threat. Short term guidance in better agreement on
upstream kicker short wave over the central plains taking a more
easterly track and only potentially grazing southern wi with some
light rain later Monday into Monday night. NAM does show a period of
low level frontogenetical forcing and q-vector divergence brushing
the far south, while other guidance farther south. Will keep some
low pops in for this period, but may be removing them in later
forecast packages.

Upstream high amplitude long wave trofing over western CONUS results
n building ridging from southern canada into the upper midwest and
great lakes Monday night and Tuesday. So a quiet and dry period
expected with no significant push of colder air so temps to remain
around near or slightly above seasonal normal for late march.

Extended period
Tuesday night through Saturday - forecast confidence... Medium
trending to low.

Higher amplitude high pressure ridge should continue to bring quiet,
cool conditions to southern wi through Wednesday. Despite having a
persistent northeast wind, low level wind speeds and rh look
marginal and 850h temperatures to remain warmer. Hence no lake
effect precipitation is expected early in the period, however will
have to watch for sct-bkn clouds for a time Tuesday night.

Upstream cutoff low pressure over SW CONUS finally gets nudged ene
beginning wed. ECMWF and nh canadian remain more bullish on taking
this system northeast into the western gtlakes on Friday, while gfs
shows more protective zonal to NW flow across the western great
lakes, which diverts the ejecting low well south of the area. Last
several ECMWF has been slowing system down however and weakening it
to an open wave. GFS ensembles show quite a bit of variability
beginning Thursday. Wpc blended guidance blends GFS and ecmwf
through the period. Main question is how much zonal to NW flow and
high pressure lingers over the great lakes later next week. With
upstream kicker digging into the SW conus, can not rule out either
solution at this time but prefer the faster NE movement. Hence wl
have chance pops for the later periods and fine tune as event draws
closer. Temps to remain near or slightly above seasonal normal.

Aviation (21z TAF update)
Areas in southeast wi have a better chance of more showers late this
afternoon into the early evening. Otherwise, expect drizzle and
light fog to persist through the night. Another round of steadier
rain showers is anticipated early Sunday morning.

Ifr and lower ceilings with visibility in the 1 to 3 mile range
expected through Sunday morning as low pressure tracks across
central illinois. Areas of dense fog are possible, especially toward
lake michigan.

Marine
Brisk northeast to east winds will gradually diminish overnight as
the surface low approaches lake michigan. Waves will be slower to
subside, so the small craft advisory is in effect until early Sunday
morning.

Ample moisture and relatively mild air over the cooler lake is
allowing for fog to develop in southern lake michigan. Web cams are
starting to show lower visibilities over the lake toward kenosha and
winthrop harbor. Areas of dense fog with visibility of 1 mile or
less are expected tonight through Sunday morning. A marine dense fog
advisory is in effect.

Mkx watches/warnings/advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 7 am cdt Sunday for lmz643>646.

Dense fog advisory until 10 am cdt Sunday for lmz645-646.

Tonight and Sunday/aviation/marine... Mrc
Sunday night through Saturday... mbk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi29 min NNE 16 G 17 38°F 1017.3 hPa (-0.6)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi49 min NNE 16 G 19
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi39 min NNE 14 G 15 38°F
FSTI2 40 mi89 min NNW 20
OKSI2 44 mi89 min N 5.1
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi39 min NNW 13 G 14
CNII2 48 mi14 min N 9.9 G 14

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Last
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NW19
G26
NW15
G20
N10
G17
NW11
G14
NW12
G23
N14
NW11
G16
NW12
G18
NW11
G17
NW10
G16
NW11
G17
N10
G15
N11
G17
N9
G13
N9
G13
NW9
G13
NW12
G15
NW10
G13
N7
NW7
NW7
NW11
G16
NW14
G18
1 day
ago
SE12
G17
SE9
G15
SE9
G13
S9
G14
S7
G11
S5
G8
S4
G7
SE5
S4
S4
G7
S7
G10
S10
G13
S15
G20
S12
G19
S12
G18
S8
G18
S18
G24
S18
G25
SW18
G30
SW10
G23
SW14
G25
SW12
G23
S14
G21
NW25
G32
2 days
ago
NE7
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NE7
G10
NE6
E7
G11
E8
SE8
G11
SE4
G9
SE8
G12
SE12
G16
SE6
SE9
G13
SE7
G14
SE10
G15
SE11
G15
SE7
G10
S10
G16
SE11
G15
SE11
G16
SE11
G17
SE14
G17
S13
G21
SE13
G16
SE11
G18

Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi37 minNE 104.00 miFog/Mist40°F39°F97%1017.7 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi35 minNE 92.50 miFog/Mist40°F39°F100%1017.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi37 minNNE 106.00 miFog/Mist39°F37°F93%1018.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi35 minENE 83.00 miUnknown Precip42°F41°F100%1016.9 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN12
G24
N10
G21
NE14
G19
N8N11N15
G21
NE11
G17
NE12NE11NE9NE10NE11NE9NE14NE17
G24
NE19
G24
NE18
G24
E17
G28
NE17NE18
G23
NE14NE13NE12NE10
1 day agoSE18
G22
SE13N7E9SE8S7S11S14SW13S10SW10SW11SW9W3CalmSW9SW11
G17
SW20
G29
W19
G25
SW19
G25
NE17
G24
NE11NE16NE15
2 days agoNE7E5CalmE3CalmCalmE3E3SE4SE5SE7SE10SE9SE10
G18
SE10SE12SE16S14
G21
SE15SE14SE13SE13SE11SE12

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.