Tuesday, January16, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:16AMSunset 4:47PM Tuesday January 16, 2018 7:26 AM CST (13:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:52AMMoonset 5:38PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 705 Am Cst Tue Jan 16 2018
Today..Northwest wind 10 to 15 knots becoming north 15 to 20 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Numerous snow showers in the morning, then scattered snow showers early in the afternoon. Isolated snow showers late in the afternoon. Waves nearly calm.
Tonight..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 10 to 15 knots late in the evening, then backing west after midnight becoming west 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots early in the morning. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves nearly calm.
Wednesday..West wind 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing southwest with gusts to around 25 knots early in the afternoon becoming 15 to 25 knots with gusts to around 30 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves nearly calm. A small craft advisory may be needed.
Wednesday night..Southwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering west after midnight. Gusts up to 30 knots. Mostly clear. Waves nearly calm. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201801161700;;533064 FZUS53 KMKX 161305 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 705 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-161700-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 161115
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
515 am cst Tue jan 16 2018

Update
Lake effect snow showers will continue through the morning hours.

The snow showers should become better organized into a band of
lake effect snow, then gradually push south, then out over lake
michigan around noon as low level winds become more
north northwest. Look for an additional 2 inches of snow in lake
shore county areas. Snow will end north areas mid late morning.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Lake effect ifr vsby MVFR cig snow showers will continue through
the morning hours. The snow showers should eventually become
better organized into a band of lake effect snow, then gradually
push out over lake michigan. Otherwise, MVFR would be expected
to improve toVFR with time.

Over south central wisconsin areas of MVFR CIGS flurries will
gradually become more scattered.

Vfr tonight.

Prev discussion (issued 234 am cst Tue jan 16 2018)
discussion...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium...

no real changes to the overall forecast at this point. The
remnants of the large lake enhanced snow area with the surface
trough will push south by sunrise. Now the main concern is the
northeast winds behind this trough. This was causing more lake
effect snows, and should become better organized and eventually
form a single band of snow. This band is expected to brush the
shoreline tomorrow morning, bringing a quick shot of additional
snow. Up to 2 inches of additional snow is expected in areas where
this brushes the land. Lesser amounts more inland. Farther inland
most of the light snow has ended.

The upper level trough sharpens with the trough axis exiting
southeast wisconsin this morning. The mid level trough has
already exited.

A brief clear period is likely tonight, and this would cause
temperatures to drop due to the fresh snow cover across the area.

Wednesday through Friday - confidence... Medium to high
overall broad scale mid level ridging this period. There is a 500
millibar shortwave that swings across the upper midwest on
Thursday however it looks pretty dry throughout the column per
bufkit soundings. The 925 temps start off around -10c Wednesday
and modify into positive territory for Thursday and especially
Friday. So a warming trend is in the offing with fairly persistent
west southwest winds this period.

Saturday - confidence... Medium
850 925 boundary may set up across the area with an uptick in
column moisture noted.Overall still looks mild though the ecmwf
does shift surface 925 winds off the lake.

Sunday and Monday - confidence... Medium
still decent agreement on a fairly potent storm system moving
across the western lakes region. As of the 00z runs the ECMWF has
the warmest track of the low through northern wi while the GFS is
coldest across northern il. The gem splits the difference but has
trended more towards the colder GFS from prior runs. Bottom line
confidence pretty high now that a system will be impacting the
region but track details of precip types still a ways off from
being finalized. For now anyways, all types are on the table for
southern wi.

Aviation(06z tafs)... For msn... Just a few light snow showers will
continue for a few more hours, before snow dissipates overnight.

Expect an improvement toVFR after sunrise. Winds should remain
northwest.

For kmke, kues, and kenw... Things are a bit more complicated for
the terminals near the lake, as lake effect snow showers will
continue through the overnight hours. Initial showery activity
should eventually become better organized into a band of lake
effect snow by daybreak, which is currently expected to brush the
shoreline area. Variable flight conditions are likely overnight,
with vis coming in and out of ifr as snow showers pass through.

Once the more organized band forms, all will depend on where
exactly the band tracks. If it tracks over any terminals, ifr
conditions with light to moderate snow will be likely. Otherwise,
MVFR would be expected to improve toVFR with time. Updates are
likely overnight as the track of the lake effect snow band becomes
more clear.

Marine... Small craft advisory is in effect from 6 am to 3 pm Tuesday
for areas north of north point light for higher waves. Expect 3
to 5 ft waves associated with north-northeast winds.

Expect northerly winds to persist through Tuesday, before they
become westerly and then southwesterly by Wednesday. Another small
craft advisory will likely be required by this time.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Winter weather advisory until noon cst today for wiz059-065-066-
071-072.

Winter storm warning until noon cst today for wiz052-060.

Lm... Small craft advisory until 3 pm cst this afternoon for lmz643-
644.

Update... Hentz
today tonight and aviation marine... Hentz
Wednesday through Monday... Collar


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi26 min NW 8 G 11 19°F 1029.1 hPa (+2.0)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi46 min NW 14 G 17 18°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi36 min NW 12 G 14 19°F
FSTI2 40 mi86 min WSW 14 15°F
OKSI2 44 mi86 min W 5.1 15°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi36 min W 17 G 21 16°F 13°F
CNII2 48 mi26 min WSW 13 G 17 12°F 9°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi33 minNW 92.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist18°F14°F84%1030.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi31 minNW 61.25 miLight Snow20°F15°F81%1031.1 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi33 minNNW 10 G 171.00 miLight Snow Fog/Mist19°F16°F88%1030.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi31 minNW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy15°F11°F84%1029.8 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE10S9S7S6SW4SW4NW5W4SW10W11SW11W9SW8W8W7W8NW7W7W6NW7NW7NW7NW7NW9
1 day agoSW4SW7SW10SW8SW8
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S11S9S10S12S9S13S11S12S15S13S13
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2 days agoNW8NW10NW10NW8NW9
G17
NW9W7NW6NW6NW4NW3NW4NW4NW4NW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.