Saturday, November18, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:46AMSunset 4:27PM Saturday November 18, 2017 11:26 AM CST (17:26 UTC) Moonrise 7:40AMMoonset 6:02PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cst Sat Nov 18 2017
.gale warning in effect through this evening...
Rest of today..North wind 15 to 25 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots. Snow around noon. Rain late in the morning and early afternoon. Waves 5 to 7 feet building to 6 to 8 feet.
Tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots after midnight, then becoming northwest 15 to 20 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 35 knots. Mostly cloudy through around midnight then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 6 to 8 feet subsiding to 4 to 6 feet.
Sunday..Northwest wind 10 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then backing west early in the afternoon becoming west 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 knots. Mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet late in the afternoon.
Sunday night..West wind 15 to 20 knots backing southwest early in the morning. Mostly clear. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201711182300;;602311 FZUS53 KMKX 181705 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI 1105 AM CST Sat Nov 18 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-182300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 181615
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1015 am cst Sat nov 18 2017

Update
Precipitation continues to push east through the area, with rain
mixing with and then changing to snow in most locations. A quick
half inch to perhaps inch of accumulation is possible on grassy
surfaces before ending around mid day. Road impacts should remain
minimal given road temps in the mid 30s, but a couple of slushy
spots aren't out of the question on bridges overpasses.

Besides the snow, expect gusty northwest winds to increase into
this afternoon, with a few gusts between 30 and 35 mph, making for
a very raw day.

Aviation (15z update)
Snow has mostly ended at msn, with just a few flakes remaining.

Snow or a mix of rain and snow will continue for a bit longer this
morning at the other terminals, ending from west to east. Ifr vis
is expected within areas of snow.

Ifr CIGS will then continue into this afternoon before gradually
improving to MVFR, and thenVFR by tonight. Winds will remain
gusty from the northwest.

Marine
Gale warning remains in effect through tonight, with small craft
conditions expected to persist following the gales. Peak time for
winds will be this afternoon into this evening. Areas of snow will
also cause visibility restrictions this morning.

Prev discussion... (issued 332 am cst Sat nov 18 2017)
discussion...

today - confidence... Medium.

Gfs ECMWF blend used as this guidance showing much better run to run
consistency and agreement versus nam. Strengthening low pressure
passing by well to the south today. Associated with the low is a
sharpening mid-level short wave and area of mid-level
frontogenetical forcing that will pass across southern wisconsin
this morning. Increasing northerly winds in the low levels will
pull colder air across southern wisconsin through the morning.

Forecast soundings show likely potential for initial surge of rain
becoming mixed with or changing over to wet snow for an hour or two
between 12z and 15z, especially over south central wi. Pavement
temperatures will remain above freezing, but strength of sloping
frontogenetical forcing may result in a burst of wet snow and
reduced visibilities with rapid accumulations on grassy and colder
surfaces. The snow may change back over to light rain or drizzle
before ending later this morning and early afternoon.

Tonight - confidence... Medium to high.

Dry and blustery conditions are expected tonight as the colder air
settles over the region. Some lower clouds may stick around for
awhile in the cold northwest flow.

Sunday through Friday - confidence... Medium to high
overall quiet period with main forecast focus on temperature
swings. We're seeing a nice uptick in temps for Monday then a
potent mid level trough drops in for Tuesday with a pronounced
surge of cold air advection. After that a moderating temp trend is
expected right through Friday. 925 temps are proggd to really ramp
up heading into Friday. A long ways off though enough support in
the guidance to suggest superblend highs may be too low so a
collaborative boost was given to the Friday high temps.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning until midnight cst tonight for lmz643>646.

Update aviation marine... Boxell
today tonight... 99
Sunday through Friday... 99


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi26 min NNW 17 G 21 36°F 999.3 hPa (-0.4)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi26 min N 15 G 24 36°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi36 min NNW 12 G 15 36°F
FSTI2 40 mi86 min N 49 40°F
OKSI2 44 mi86 min N 15 40°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi36 min N 32 G 35 42°F 40°F
CNII2 48 mi26 min NNW 21 G 25 40°F 38°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi33 minN 9 G 186.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F33°F93%999.5 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi31 minN 9 G 163.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist35°F34°F96%998.9 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi33 minN 13 G 228.00 miLight Rain36°F35°F97%1000.1 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi56 minN 113.00 miLight Snow35°F35°F100%1000 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S8S9S11
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S13S12S12S9SW6W6NW3W3NW3NW3N4N8N7NE9NE7N7N11
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1 day agoN5N7N4SE4E7E4NE6CalmCalmCalmCalmS3W5CalmCalmS5S8S8S11S7S15
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2 days agoW15W15
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NW11NW9N8NW9NW9

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.