Sunday, May26, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 5:19AMSunset 8:18PM Saturday May 25, 2019 11:14 PM CDT (04:14 UTC) Moonrise 1:17AMMoonset 11:22AM Illumination 54% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 22 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1106 Pm Cdt Sat May 25 2019
Rest of tonight..West wind 5 to 10 knots veering north early in the morning. Slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday..North wind 5 to 10 knots veering northeast in the afternoon. Slight chance of showers in the morning. Waves around 1 foot.
Sunday night..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north after midnight, then becoming north 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Monday..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through the day. Waves around 1 foot.
LMZ646 Expires:201905261000;;470341 FZUS53 KMKX 260406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1106 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-261000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
   Hourly   EDIT   Help
location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
      (on/off)   Help   NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
Fxus63 kmkx 260208
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
908 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019

Update
The weak cold front drifting across southern wisconsin was located
from near manitowoc in the east to near darlington southwest of
madison. It will continue to push southeast this evening. The hi
res short range guidance keeps any showers storms south of the
border into Sunday morning. This seems reasonable, but will keep
the slgt chance going over our far southern counties just in case
any stragglers decide to creep north.

Marine
Weak high pressure will drift across the area tonight through
Sunday night, followed by low pressure arriving later on Monday.

Expect light winds through Sunday. As the low approaches, winds
will become easterly Sunday night and Monday, becoming rather
gusty Monday night. The weather pattern looks unsettled and
uncertain Tuesday through Wednesday with broad low pressure
helping to bring periods of showers and thunderstorms through at
least the first half of next week.

Prev discussion (issued 558 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019)
update...

the short range forecast is on track. No changes.

Aviation(00z tafs)...

look forVFR conditions through the TAF period. A weak cold front
will drift across southern wisconsin this evening. A subtle wind
shift from southwest to west will occur this evening, then become
rather light and variable overnight. Light winds will continue
through Sunday. An of showers and thunderstorms will pass mostly
south of wisconsin later tonight and early Sunday morning. A few
could drift just north of the wi il border, possibly getting into
the kenw area.

Prev discussion... (issued 321 pm cdt Sat may 25 2019)
short term...

tonight and Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

A weak cold front approaching from SE mn and west central wi will
slowly move across SRN wi through the evening. Despite sfc based
cape building to 1500 j kg with limited cin, sfc convergence will
likely be too weak for convective initiation with the exception
of near the il border where deeper low level moisture will be
present. Only slight chances of tstorms are forecast. On Sunday, a
shortwave trough will move from mo to the WRN ohio river valley.

Convection will be ongoing to the south but will maintain slight
chance pops for tnt through Sun am over far SRN wi. Otherwise, a
pleasant day for Sun with high temps in the 60s near the lake and
70s inland.

Monday into Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium to low
focus is on the potential for severe thunderstorms, particularly
on Monday as a mid level shortwave trough approaches the region.

If there is a trend with the 25.12z guidance is that the threat
may be going south of the region.

25.12z nam, gfs, and ECMWF are all fairly consistent with showing
a mid-level shortwave trough propagating into the region along
with an increase in low level moisture transport. The main
question will be with the surface warm stationary front and
whether it makes any progress northward on Monday to push the
warm more humid air mass into southern wisconsin. The GFS ecmwf
are showing a slightly weaker low level wind scenario, which
doesn't give as much of a bump north as the NAM is showing. If the
gfs ECMWF pans out, southern wisconsin will be on the north cool
side of the boundary with rain and perhaps a few rumbles of
thunder, but not a severe threat. Given how the past few setups
have panned out with the flow off of the lake and morning mcss
keeping the boundary south, would expect this to play out in a
similar fashion. However... Should the NAM scenario pan out, we
would be looking at a serious severe weather situation. 20-00z
Monday soundings from along near the warm sector shows a fat cape
profile with a looping hodograph showing a balanced
veering increase of wind speeds W height which would provide an
ideal environment for supercell development. This setup, while
unlikely, has been what the NAM has been showing for the past few
runs, so will have to maintain some awareness of the potential for
organized convection despite the main trends to be favoring that a
bit further south.

For Tuesday into Wednesday, the next system is trending a bit
slower with it getting into the region, so have lower pops a bit
for Tuesday as it appears we will be in-between systems. Better
chance for precipitation will be Tuesday night into Wednesday as
the system moves in from the west. The gfs ECMWF don't show much
of a kick to the north with the boundary for this setup, so the
severe threat again looks mainly to be to the north.

Long term...

Thursday into Saturday... Forecast confidence is low.

While there is generally a clearing trend going into Thursday, the
gfs develops some convection along a secondary trough front that
lingers behind on Thursday afternoon. Thinking that it is too high
on surface dew points instability and that if anything, it would
just be some scattered showers. Beyond this going into the
weekend, the flow remains a bit unsettled, yet northwesterly, so
there are a number of quick moving systems that drop into the
region at different times in this period, so confidence in how
this period will pan out is low.

Aviation(21z tafs)... Sct040-050 cumulus this afternoon into the
early evening.VFR conditions will continue tnt-sun. Breezy swly
winds this afternoon will weaken by sunset and gradually veer to
nly late tnt and ely on sun.

Marine... A dense fog advisory over the NRN half of lake mi
remains in effect until 7 pm cdt. The visible satellite trend
shows clearing over the SRN half of the lake but fog and stratus
still present over the NRN half of the lake. The fog should
dissipate through tnt as a cold front shifts the swly winds to nly
winds. The southwesterly winds this afternoon will gust into the
lower 20 kt range at times over the nearshore waters from
sheboygan to winthrop harbor. A small craft advisory is not
anticipated at this time. Light winds will then remain over lake
mi through the memorial day weekend.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Davis
tonight Sunday and aviation marine... Davis
Sunday night through Saturday... Halbach


Weather Reporting Stations
   EDIT       (on/off)   Help   NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi75 min SW 7 G 9.9 74°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.0)
45187 11 mi55 min SSE 3.9 G 5.8 53°F 49°F
45186 13 mi35 min SE 3.9 G 3.9 55°F 51°F
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi95 min SW 8 G 9.9 74°F
45174 30 mi35 min SSW 5.8 G 5.8 68°F 1013.2 hPa68°F
FSTI2 40 mi135 min WSW 4.1 76°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi45 min WSW 14 G 16
CNII2 48 mi30 min WSW 2.9 G 8 76°F 63°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
11
PM
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
Last
24hr
S6
G10
S8
G12
S10
G17
S8
G12
S11
G16
SW8
G12
S6
W4
G10
SW3
G7
SW5
G9
SW7
G15
SW10
G17
SW10
G15
SW6
G10
W8
G18
SW7
G14
SW12
G18
SW10
G17
SW7
G12
SW5
G13
SW5
G10
SW4
G10
SW3
SW4
1 day
ago
SW4
NE1
G4
NE1
N4
G7
NE5
NE4
NE4
G7
W8
G13
N10
G15
NE5
E11
G14
E5
G8
SE5
G8
SE4
G9
SE6
G9
NE7
G10
E9
G12
NE2
NE2
N4
N2
N2
W2
SE3
2 days
ago
S11
G20
S10
G17
S11
G21
SW12
G20
SW11
G15
SW11
G16
SW6
G11
SW8
G12
SW5
SW4
G8
W8
G15
W5
G12
W6
G18
SW8
G15
W7
G17
W6
G13
W6
G14
W6
G17
W5
G11
W5
G11
W4
G10
W4
G7
W2
W2

Airport Reports
    EDIT      (on/off)   Help   Click EDIT to display multiple airports
AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi22 minSW 810.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1013 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi20 minSW 610.00 miFair68°F62°F81%1012.6 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi22 minSW 510.00 miFair70°F61°F73%1013.3 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi20 minSW 310.00 miFair65°F61°F89%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
12
AM
1
AM
2
AM
3
AM
4
AM
5
AM
6
AM
7
AM
8
AM
9
AM
10
AM
11
AM
12
PM
1
PM
2
PM
3
PM
4
PM
5
PM
6
PM
7
PM
8
PM
9
PM
10
PM
11
PM
Last 24hrE3S4S4S3W8SW7SW9SW10SW11SW10SW15
G26
SW14SW12W12
G21
SW11
G21
W14SW16
G25
SW15
G21
SW12
G23
W14SW10SW7SW4SW8
1 day agoE5CalmCalmE3E3N4CalmCalmSE6SE9SE9SE8CalmSE15
G21
E10E11SE8SE12SE8SE7E6E3E3E6
2 days agoSW11SW8W13
G17
W9W7W9W9W7W12W17
G23
W14
G24
W20
G28
W21
G27
W16
G27
W20
G27
W13
G26
W15
G22
W13
G23
W12
G20
W11W6W4N3E7

Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT   Weekend mode (on/off)   (on/off)   Help
Tide / Current Tables for
   EDIT      (on/off)   Help
Weather Map and Satellite Images
       (on/off)   HelpWeather Map
wmap_A
GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (0,6,7,8)
      (on/off)   Help

Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
   (on/off)   Help
weather_mapweather_map weather_map

Ad by Google

Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.