Wednesday, September19, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

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What's New / NOTES
9/17/2018 XTide broke when 1and1 "upgraded" my server. It has been esculated. I am sorry for the problem.

Sunrise 6:35AMSunset 6:54PM Wednesday September 19, 2018 11:18 AM CDT (16:18 UTC) Moonrise 4:18PMMoonset 1:10AM Illumination 72% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Am Cdt Wed Sep 19 2018
Rest of today..East wind 5 to 10 knots backing northeast early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 5 to 10 knots veering east late in the evening, then becoming southeast 10 to 15 knots after midnight. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms through around midnight, then showers and Thunderstorms likely after midnight. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday..Southeast wind 10 to 15 knots veering south with gusts to around 20 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the morning. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet early in the afternoon, then building to 2 to 4 feet late in the afternoon.
Thursday night..South wind 15 to 20 knots becoming 15 to 25 knots late in the evening, then veering southwest after midnight becoming southwest 15 to 25 knots early in the morning. Gusts up to 30 knots. Chance of showers and Thunderstorms after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet. A small craft advisory may be needed.
LMZ646 Expires:201809192200;;887832 FZUS53 KMKX 191605 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 AM CDT Wed Sep 19 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-192200-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 191541 aab
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1041 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018

Update
An area of showers and storms to the west continues to approach,
currently reaching the mississippi river. This will likely hold
together as it pushes into southern wisconsin, though some
weakening is possible. This area would reach the western forecast
area by late morning and the madison area early afternoon. There
is some question as to whether the storms will hold together all
the way to the east. Did keep a chance going there.

Bumped high temps down a degree or so given the fact that clouds
will hang on through the day most places.

Marine
Breezy southerly winds are expected Thursday and especially
Thursday night. This will build high waves over the nearshore
waters, with highest waves toward and over the open lake. Winds
will remain gusty out of the west on Friday, and northwest Friday
night, in the wake of a cold front.

A small craft advisory will be needed over the nearshore waters,
with a few gale force gusts possible Thursday night into Friday
afternoon. A gale watch is in effect for the north half of the
open waters of lake michigan from late Thursday evening through
early Friday evening.

Note: today marks the transition of the lake michigan open waters
forecast responsibility from NWS chicago to nws
milwaukee sullivan.

Prev discussion (issued 715 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018)
update...

thunderstorms tracking through northern iowa will continue to
move eastward into southern wi late this morning as they weaken.

The hrrr has the general trend but continues to run a couple hours
too slow. Timing and coverage as this complex moves into the area
is still uncertain.

Aviation(12z tafs)...

ifr to MVFR stratus with ceilings of 400 to 1200 feet has
overspread all of southern wisconsin this morning. Look for
ceilings to gradually rise and break up through mid morning.

Meanwhile, high clouds are beginning to spread into the area.

These are associated with a cluster of thunderstorms that should
spread into southern wi as it weakens around the noon hour. Timing
and coverage are uncertain.

We can expect more widespread thunderstorms to develop over
southern mn this evening, and expand eastward through central and
southern wi overnight. Central wi has the higher chance of
thunderstorms with heavy rain, although that main area could end
up as far south as madison and milwaukee
prev discussion... (issued 355 am cdt Wed sep 19 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

A weakening area of showers will slide across central and
northern wi early this morning. Expect dry weather in southern wi
through the morning hours. Current areas of low clouds will
gradually scatter out through late morning. Temperatures will be
on the rise, so any sunshine will help us get into the lower to
mid 70s.

The convection developing over southeast sd is what we'll watch
as it expands and slides east today. The 07z hrrr model seems to
have a handle on it and tracks it into southern wi by early
afternoon. There will be a weakening trend, so coverage is
uncertain for the precip over southern wi this afternoon.

We can expect more widespread thunderstorms to develop over
southern mn, along the nose of a fairly robust low level jet this
evening. This will expand eastward through central and southern
wi overnight. There are model differences regarding the location
of the 850mb warm front, so the placement of the main area of
thunderstorms is still uncertain. Right now, central wi has the
higher chance of thunderstorms featuring heavy rain, although that
main area could end up as far south as madison and milwaukee.

Thunderstorms will be on the north side of the warm front
(elevated) overnight and storm mode is uncertain. Hail would be
the main threat in any stronger storm cores, due to high shear
and decent elevated instability.

Thursday through Friday night... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are showing the east to west oriented surface warm front
and low level jet nose lingering over the area Thursday morning,
before pushing north in the afternoon. Kept higher end pops for
showers and chances for thunderstorms in the morning, highest in
the northern parts of the area. Convection may not be as robust as
later tonight in the north, with varying amounts of elevated cape
per nam GFS forecast soundings. Precipitable water values remain
elevated, so could still see locally heavy rainfall in this area.

Warm sector airmass should move northward into the area during
the afternoon and lingering into the evening, before the cold
front slides east across the area later Thursday night and exiting
to the east early Friday morning. There should be enough daytime
heating for warm and humid conditions to return Thursday afternoon
and evening. Gusty south to southwest winds are expected Thursday,
which should boost highs into the 80s across most of the area.

The timing of the cold frontal passage has slowed down, and the
later Thursday night timing is not ideal for severe storms. Mid
level lapse rates are around 6 degrees celsius per kilometer,
which is not great either. Still, there is strong deep layer bulk
shear and enough mean layer CAPE present to bring a severe storm
risk, mainly across areas northwest of madison Thursday evening
into the overnight hours. Some uncertainty here with regard to the
severe potential.

Storms should weaken as they cross the area later Thursday night,
as mean layer CAPE weakens. Brief heavy rainfall is possible,
though storms should move fairly quickly with the front.

Strong cold air advection is expected after the frontal passage
and into Friday, as gusty winds shift to the west and northwest.

Temperatures should gradually fall during the day Friday, with
drier air working into the area. High pressure moving into the
area Friday night should bring quiet weather with colder
temperatures. Lows Friday night will drop into the 40s inland,
around 50 near the lake. It certainly will feel more like autumn
across the area Friday into Friday night.

Long term...

Saturday through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is high.

Models are generally showing the influence of high pressure to the
east of the region keeping things dry across the area Saturday
into Sunday night. 500 mb flow looks to remain zonal during this
period. Temperatures look to remain near or a little below
seasonal normals during this time.

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Models are hinting at some warm air advection trying to return to
the area for Monday, with a cold front crossing the region Monday
night, exiting to the east on Tuesday. 500 mb trends suggest a
broad longwave trough developing over the region, into the
northern plains. Kept highest pops for Monday night for now, and
will refine them as things become more clear with trends this far
out in the forecast period.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

there is an area of low (ifr) stratus just west of madison that
is remaining stationary. Another area of stratus over fond du lac,
sheboygan, and west bend is expanding southwestward early this
morning. Expect ceilings to gradually rise and scatter out through
mid morning.

Light showers will slide across central and northern wi this
morning and miss southern wi. The convection developing over
southeast sd is what we'll watch as it expands and slides east
today. The 07z hrrr model seems to have a handle on it, although
it is lagging behind a couple of hours, and tracks it into
southern wi by early afternoon. There will be a weakening trend,
so coverage is uncertain.

We can expect more widespread thunderstorms to develop over
southern mn this evening, and expand eastward through central and
southern wi overnight. Central wi has the higher chance of
thunderstorms with heavy rain, although that main area could end
up as far south as madison and milwaukee.

Marine...

breezy southerly winds are expected Thursday and especially
Thursday night. This will build high waves over the nearshore
waters, with highest waves toward the open lake. Winds will
remain gusty out of the west on Friday, and northwest Friday
night, in the wake of a cold front. A small craft advisory will
be needed. A few gale force gusts are possible Thursday night
into Friday afternoon.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Update... Ddv
today tonight and aviation marine... Wood
Thursday through Tuesday... Cronce


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi19 min NE 12 G 15 65°F 1018.3 hPa (+1.0)
45187 11 mi19 min 67°F 70°F2 ft
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi39 min ENE 9.9 G 13 66°F
45186 13 mi19 min NE 9.7 67°F 71°F2 ft
45174 30 mi19 min NE 7.8 G 9.7 67°F 71°F3 ft65°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi29 min E 8.9 G 9.9 65°F
FSTI2 40 mi79 min NE 7 69°F
45013 43 mi72 min E 9.7 G 12 65°F 67°F2 ft1019 hPa
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi49 min NE 4.1 G 4.1 69°F 63°F
CNII2 48 mi19 min NE 5.1 G 7 72°F 61°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi26 minENE 910.00 miOvercast67°F62°F84%1018.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi24 minENE 10 G 1510.00 miMostly Cloudy68°F61°F78%1017.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi26 minNE 810.00 miOvercast67°F59°F76%1019 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi44 minENE 610.00 miOvercast65°F60°F85%1018.6 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr3N7NW11SW6SW5N3NE9E7E4N3N4CalmN3N5NE4N4NE4NE5CalmNE3E8E9E9E9
1 day ago5W6NW66
G15
SE4E9E5SE5CalmS4S4SW3NW4NE5N6N6N7N5CalmN11
G19
N5NW5SW10
G18
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G18
2 days agoE7SE8SE8E10SE11SE10SE9SE9SE6SE5SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW4NW5W4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.