Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:12AMSunset 4:20PM Thursday December 13, 2018 3:59 PM CST (21:59 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 11:19PM Illumination 38% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 305 Pm Cst Thu Dec 13 2018
Through early evening..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Tonight..Southeast wind 5 to 10 knots backing north early in the morning. Patchy fog through the night. Chance of rain in the evening. Rain in the late evening and early morning, then chance of rain early in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the afternoon, then rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Friday night..North wind 5 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Partly cloudy. Waves around 1 foot.
Saturday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots backing north late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 1 to 2 feet building to 2 to 4 feet in the late morning and early afternoon, then subsiding to 1 to 3 feet late in the afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201812141000;;746776 FZUS53 KMKX 132105 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 305 PM CST Thu Dec 13 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-141000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 132051
afdmkx
area forecast discussion
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
251 pm cst Thu dec 13 2018

Short term
Tonight - confidence... Medium.

Short term guidance in good agreement on enough low to mid-level
moisture streaming northeast ahead of approaching short wave and
surface trof to result in light precipitation developing over parts
of southeast wi during the evening, gradually ending later tonight
into early Friday. Column precipitable water increases to around
three quarters inch in the far southeast this evening. The surface
trof is currently over southeast mn eastern ia and will progress
through southern wi during the evening. Right entrance region of
upper jet passes quickly across southeast wi overnight as mid-level
frontogenesis clips the area. Hence wl continue high pops for the
far southeast cwa. Main concern is precipitation type. Forecast
soundings show low level warm air advection resulting in the thermal
profile above freezing through 3-4k feet in the eastern area.

Only concern is that inland temperatures may quickly fall to around
or slightly below freezing this evening before and around
precipitation onset. Model certainty hourly temp favors these temps
and model wet-bulb consensus also drops to near or below
freezing for a time. Hence needed to include small chances
for light freezing rain in some inland areas overnight on periphery
of precipitation. Any glazing that were to occur would be light on
untreated roads. Low confidence on any potential glazing having
impacts overnight.

Expect fog to redevelop overnight as well. The fog may become dense
in some south central wi areas where lighter winds are
expected.

Friday - confidence... Medium to high.

Light precipitation will end from west to east later tonight and
early Friday with subsidence and drier air intrusion resulting in
clearing skies during the morning along with fog lifting.

Temperatures should rise to mild levels with sunshine returning and
westerly winds.

Long term
Friday night through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium to
high:
high pressure should be in control for much of the time over the
weekend through the first half of next week. Dry weather is
expected through this period. There could be a little rain snow
mix by Wednesday night and Thursday, though not all forecast
models agree on this.

Lesser confidence in temps this weekend. Models show an inversion
not far above the surface for much of the daytime periods, with
very little mixing. Some of this is likely due to models overdoing
the snow cover on the ground. Nudged forecast temps up just a
touch more. Given temps aloft, these forecast values could be
underdone, with MOS suggesting mid to upper 40s. Soundings look
quite dry, though there is a small concern of stratus given such
little flow and mixing under the high. What happens on Friday
should give better direction for what to expect the remainder of
the weekend.

Temps should turn cooler for early to mid next week, though will
likely remain a little above normal for mid-december.

Aviation (21z tafs) Expect MVFR and possibly ifr ceilings to
spread across much of southern wi during the evening ahead of
approaching light rain, possibly mixed with light snow or sleet away
from lake michigan. Visible imagery and surface observations
showing low MVFR ceilings pushing northward across northern il early
this afternoon. The precipitation should be confined to mainly
southeast wi overnight. A passing surface trof and period of
lighter winds should result in more fog developing overnight. The
fog may become dense in parts of south central wi. VFR conditions
will return on Friday.

Marine
Open waters... Shore webcams continue to indicate patchy fog over the
nearshore waters. Will include fog mention in the nearshore and
open waters for the overnight due to lighter winds and warmer, moist
air surging into the southern part of the lake associated with the
incoming light rain. Winds will turn to the north to northeast
across the southern part of the lake overnight as low pressure trof
moves into the area from the west and develops to the north of
surface low pressure. Southwest winds across the northern open
waters will turn to the west-northwest behind the passing trof. The
light rain will end Friday morning across far southern lake
michigan.

Nearshore... Southeast winds will turn to the north to northeast as a
surface low pressure trof moves through the area. The light winds
should result in more fog developing over the nearshore waters
overnight.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... None.

Tonight Friday and aviation marine... mbk
Friday night through Thursday... Ddv


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi60 min SSE 5.1 G 6 39°F 1018.6 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi80 min ESE 6 G 7 40°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi50 min SSE 8.9 G 9.9 37°F
FSTI2 40 mi120 min SE 16 37°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi40 min E 5.1 G 6 39°F 37°F
CNII2 48 mi30 min NE 4.1 G 6 37°F 33°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi67 minE 46.00 miFair with Haze41°F30°F67%1018.9 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi65 minVar 35.00 miFair with Haze38°F30°F73%1019.3 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi67 minSSE 67.00 miFair39°F30°F73%1019.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi65 minE 310.00 miFair40°F28°F64%1017.9 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW16W12
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W8W8W13W9W8W5SW3SW6CalmSW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS6SE7S10S9SE8E4
1 day agoE7E5E3E6E6E6SE6SE8SE8SE10SE9SE11SE10SE10SE10SE9S11S8S10
G18
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2 days agoSW8
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SW9SW10SW12SW13W13W12W8SW10W12SW8W7W10W12W6W7W5W6NW9W6W4W3CalmE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.