Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 6:49AMSunset 7:07PM Friday March 22, 2019 12:52 AM CDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 9:15PMMoonset 8:07AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 1105 Pm Cdt Thu Mar 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Rest of tonight..Northwest wind 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 to 4 feet.
Friday..Northwest wind 15 to 25 knots veering north late in the morning, then becoming north 15 to 25 knots early in the afternoon becoming 15 to 20 knots late in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 4 to 6 feet building to 5 to 7 feet early in the afternoon, then subsiding to 4 to 6 feet late in the afternoon.
Friday night..North wind 10 to 15 knots easing to 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Clear. Waves 4 to 6 feet subsiding to 3 to 5 feet late in the evening, then subsiding to 3 to 4 feet after midnight.
Saturday..Northwest wind 5 to 10 knots becoming west late in the morning, then becoming south early in the afternoon rising to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Sunny. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 2 feet in the late morning and afternoon. Wave heights are for ice free areas.
LMZ646 Expires:201903221000;;729942 FZUS53 KMKX 220406 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 1105 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2019 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-221000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 220538 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
1238 am cdt Fri mar 22 2019

Update
The forecast is on track for the remainder of the night.

Aviation(06z tafs)
Will continue to watch for the possibility for some low clouds in
the east later tonight into early Friday morning. Otherwise, high
pressure building into the area Friday into Friday night will
bring quiet weather to southern wisconsin.

Prev discussion (issued 957 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019)
update... Winds have subsided to mostly 5 to 10 knots, but a few
gusts still reaching the surface at times due to strong boundary
layer mixing just above shallow low level inversion. Upstream cold
front over far northern wi and lake michigan will sweep southward
overnight. Still expect some increase in clouds in eastern areas
but may hold off until late tonight into early Friday morning.

Marine... A cold front has swept across lake superior is is just
entering far northern lake michigan. It should be passing across
beaver island shortly. A surge of low level cold air in the
front's wake will cause winds and waves to build later tonight
into Friday morning. Gusts to 35 knots still expected over the
open waters on Friday. Status quo on the gale warning for the open
waters and small craft advisory for the nearshore waters.

Prev discussion... (issued 647 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019)
update... More clearing is expected through the evening as first
surface trof moving through with little fanfare early this
evening. Gusty winds will accompany the trof passage, and should
linger through the evening as breezy wnw winds are expected just
above the shallow low level inversion. Still thinking some mid-
level clouds will sweep into eastern areas later tonight into
Friday morning, in wake of passing stronger cold front.

Aviation(00z tafs)...VFR conditions expected for much of this
forecast period. Still a concern for a period of MVFR sct-bkn late
tonight into Friday morning in eastern areas in wake of passing
cold front. Confidence lower on MVFR so trended to a tempo group
in the east for now. Gusty winds in the lowest 2k feet will remain
just below low level wind shear criteria but will be in the 25 to
30kt range.

Prev discussion... (issued 317 pm cdt Thu mar 21 2019)
short term...

late this afternoon through Friday night... Forecast confidence is
high.

Clouds are clearing across the area, bringing clearing skies. A
cold front will pass through this evening, which may bring
additional clouds to the area tonight. These additional clouds
will help keep lows tonight in the 30s.

Conditions will clear up Friday, as drier air pushes in along
with northerly wind gusts around 25 to 30 mph for the afternoon.

Northerly winds will keep temperatures Friday in the upper 30s to
low 40s. High pressure will then settle in Friday night, bringing
weaker winds and clear skies, which will allow lows to drop back
into the 20s.

Saturday... Forecast confidence is high.

Models are in good agreement with high pressure moving to the
southeast of the area Saturday. Some modest warm air advection
develops over the area, with southwest winds. Look for a dry day
with mild temperatures.

Highs should be in the upper 40s to lower 50s, and they may get a
little higher given the dry southwesterly flow with the snowpack
gone. Model certainty places forecast highs a little above the
75th percentile, so am leaning in the warmer direction.

Saturday night through Sunday night... Forecast confidence is
medium.

Models are generally showing a 500 mb low slowly weakening as it
moves slowly east from the central plains into southeast iowa
Saturday night into Sunday. It then becomes more of an open wave
as it accelerates southeast of there Sunday night. There is a fair
amount of differential cyclonic vorticity advection Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Associated 850 mb deformation occurs near or south of the
wisconsin illinois border Sunday afternoon and evening, and
frontogenesis response is rather weak. The 850 mb low level jet
and focused warm air advection points into northern illinois
Sunday as well.

The upward vertical motion is not strong, but enough saturation
in the air column should occur, so kept generally higher end pops
for light rain Sunday into Sunday evening. Some uncertainty here,
as the ECMWF keeps this system a bit further to the south than the
other models, and keeps drier air over the area. This limits the
precipitation to the far southern counties on Sunday.

Cold front then moves south through the area later Sunday into
Sunday evening, with gusty northeast winds behind it bringing
strong cold air advection into the area. This may bring a mix or
changeover to light snow for a brief time, before dry air moves
in and ends the precipitation later Sunday night. No snow
accumulations are expected.

Any rainfall should be on the light side, around 0.20 inches near
the illinois border, to less than 0.05 inches in the far northern
counties. Not expecting this to have much of an effect on the
main stem river flooding across the area.

Long term...

Monday through Tuesday... Forecast confidence is high.

Models are showing northwest flow at 500 mb Monday and Tuesday
becoming more zonal or southwesterly Wednesday into Thursday.

Canadian high pressure is expected to move southeast through the
region Monday into Tuesday, bringing dry conditions with slowly
warming temperatures. Northeast winds will remain rather brisk
Monday, before becoming light on Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Thursday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The GFS is trying to develop QPF within a fairly dry warm air
advection setup Tuesday night into Wednesday across the area. The
ecmwf and canadian models are dry during this time, which seems
more reasonable given the setup and lack of good moisture
advection. For now, will leave the low pops going for Tuesday
night into Wednesday in parts of the area, but this may need to be
removed in later forecasts.

More robust warm air advection then develops for Wednesday night
into Thursday. The ECMWF gfs generally show some warm air
advection low level jet driven precipitation across the area
during this time. Things beyond Thursday get murky, with the
models differing greatly with the timing of a fairly potent
surface low moving northeast through or near southern wisconsin.

Left pops in this period as is for now. Mild temperatures should
return by Wednesday into Thursday.

Aviation(21z TAF updates)...

MVFR ceilings are continuing to push southeast and will be out of
the area over the next few hours. Expect clear skies the rest of
the afternoon, before clouds move back in with the cold front
tonight. Most areas remainVFR, but areas near the lake may see a
brief period of MVFR ceilings between 8z to 12z Friday. Skies will
then clear for the afternoon.

Marine...

as the cold front pushes through this evening, expect an increase
in winds from the northwest. Gale force winds are likely over
open waters Friday morning and afternoon, therefore a gale warning
is in effect from 4 am to 4 pm Friday. Additionally, a small
craft advisory is in effect for late tonight through the daytime
Friday.

High pressure then will move in Friday night into Saturday,
bringing calm winds and sunny skies.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... None.

Lm... Gale warning from 4 am early this morning to 4 pm cdt this
afternoon for lmz080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-
673-675-777-779-868-870-872-874-876-878.

Small craft advisory until 7 pm cdt this evening for lmz643>646.

Update... Ddv
tonight Saturday and aviation marine... Rar
Saturday night through Friday... Wood


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi53 min WNW 12 G 18 42°F 1012.9 hPa
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi73 min WNW 11 G 19 43°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi43 min 43°F
FSTI2 40 mi113 min W 12 43°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi33 min W 14 G 16 44°F 35°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi60 minW 1010.00 miFair40°F32°F73%1013.4 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi3 hrsno data mi43°F30°F63%1013.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi60 minWNW 910.00 miFair41°F28°F62%1013.4 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi58 minWNW 810.00 miFair37°F29°F75%1013.2 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW6NW7NW6N7N6N9N10N10
G16
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1 day agoS6S5SW6SW6SW9SW6SW7S8S10SW7SW8SW8SW7SW6SW8SW7SW6S5S3S6W10
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NW7NW7NW7
2 days agoSW3SW3SW5W4SW4SW3SW3SW3W6W7W8W10W10W7
G18
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SW11SW7SW9SW4SW4S5CalmSW5S5

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.