Thursday, June21, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Old Mill Creek, IL

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/20/2018 -- NOAA is having problems with the data feed that I use to draw the graphs. They are aware of the issue and working to resolve it. Sometimes changing the location by about a mile will give a correct graph. 3/3/2018 - There is a new GOES Satellite for the east coast that required rewriting that part of the code. Please report any issues.

Sunrise 5:12AMSunset 8:34PM Thursday June 21, 2018 9:21 AM CDT (14:21 UTC) Moonrise 2:11PMMoonset 1:39AM Illumination 57% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 8 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LMZ646 Wind Point Wi To Winthrop Harbor Il- 905 Am Cdt Thu Jun 21 2018
.small craft advisory in effect from 7 pm cdt this evening through late Friday night...
Rest of today..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Periods of showers and isolated Thunderstorms. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
Tonight..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the evening, then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots after midnight easing to 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Rain showers through around midnight, then showers likely after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet building to 4 to 6 feet in the late evening and overnight.
Friday..Northeast wind 10 to 15 knots rising to 15 to 20 knots late in the morning, then becoming northeast 15 to 20 knots in the afternoon. Rain showers likely in the morning. Slight chance of Thunderstorms through the day. Chance of showers in the afternoon. Waves 4 to 6 feet.
Friday night..Northeast wind 15 to 20 knots easing to 10 to 15 knots with gusts to around 20 knots late in the evening, then backing north after midnight becoming north 10 to 15 knots early in the morning. Chance of showers and slight chance of Thunderstorms through around midnight, then slight chance of showers after midnight. Waves 3 to 4 feet.
LMZ646 Expires:201806212200;;882177 FZUS53 KMKX 211405 NSHMKX Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 905 AM CDT Thu Jun 21 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore on Lake Michigan LMZ646-212200-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Old Mill Creek, IL
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location: 42.49, -87.98     debug


Area Discussion for - Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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Fxus63 kmkx 211212 aaa
afdmkx
area forecast discussion... Updated
national weather service milwaukee sullivan wi
712 am cdt Thu jun 21 2018

Update
Rain showers continue to spread into southern wi early this
morning. Precip rates are still light, but expect that to increase
later this morning into the afternoon as we should probably get a
few thunderstorms. There is a flash flood watch for the southern
tier of counties for today and tonight. There was a small debate
about the headline title of flash flood vs. Areal flood watch. It
was agreed upon by the quad cities and chicago offices to do a
flash flood watch due to the greater concern for convection in
their areas.

Aviation(12z tafs)
Ceilings are only MVFR to ifr in far southwest wi this morning and
vfr elsewhere. There will be a general northward trend of these
lower ceilings today, but they are not expected to make it into
msn, ues, and mke. As rain tapers off overnight and the low
pressure area gets closer, ceilings may drop down more.

Heavier rain showers with possible thunder will cause temporary
MVFR ceilings visibilities today. There is not enough confidence
in the timing of these heavier bands to put in the TAF yet.

Prev discussion (issued 402 am cdt Thu jun 21 2018)
short term...

today and tonight... Forecast confidence is medium.

A closed upper low and associated surface low will track across
iowa northern missouri today and illinois on Friday. This slow-
moving system will bring an extended period of showers to southern
wisconsin. That 850mb baroclinic zone remains draped across
southern wi, along with a plume of very moist air with
precipitable water values of 1.5 to 2 inches. The steady easterly
850mb low level jet, waves of vorticity advection, and persistent
upper divergence are favorable for far southern wi (and northern
il) to get efficient rainfall over the next 24 hours. Southern wi
has already had 4 to 8 inches of rain over the past week and
another 1.5 to 2 inches is expected (with the possibility for
more). There should be a few thunderstorms, especially this
afternoon. Therefore, a flash flood watch is in effect through
tonight for our southern tier of counties.

Temperatures will remain cool today in the mid upper 60s due to
steady east winds, clouds, and rain. The northern counties toward
central wi should be able to warm into the lower 70s by the
afternoon with some filtered sunshine.

Long term...

Friday through Sunday... Forecast confidence is medium.

The closed upper low responsible for Thursday's precip will push off
to the east on Friday, though cyclonic flow in the upper levels will
persist through Sunday. Unsurprisingly, the low level cyclone
will very slowly pull off to the northeast through the weekend,
leaving cool east to northerly flow in its wake. The northeast
winds will help to slowly dry out the low levels, but the slow ne
propagation of the cyclone center will keep enough moisture around
to keep most of southern wisconsin socked in beneath broken
clouds through at least Saturday. Similarly, with diminishing
moisture and forcing as the low slides away, precip chances will
fade Friday before falling to near 0 by Saturday.

With winds swinging around from the east to the north and mostly
cloudy skies through at least Saturday, temperatures will remain
rather cool. Unsurprisingly, the raw model blends are coming in a
bit cooler than bc blends and mos, but everything is 5-10 degrees
below normal for Friday and Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday... Forecast confidence is medium.

Upper level ridging will finally build in early next week, allowing
for high pressure and southerly winds in low levels on Monday,
translating into a rather nice day.

By midweek, a deep, slightly positively-tilted trough will swing
through the upper midwest. Most guidance shows the surface cyclone
associated with this trough moving through wisconsin early
Wednesday. The southerly flow ahead of this low will result in
rather robust moisture return, with both the GFS and gem showing
pws in the 1.75 to 2 inch range by Tuesday evening.

With this ample moisture, and plenty of lift provided by the deep
upper trough, we should at the very least see plenty of showers
and thunderstorms. As it stands, the timing of the surface low
would really limit the potential for any storms to become strong
or severe.

Aviation(09z tafs)...

a mid-level deck of clouds is slowly overspreading all of
southern and east central wi from the south. Meanwhile, a
secondary deck of low clouds with MVFR ceilings is gradually
spreading into south central wi early this morning. Showers are
becoming more widespread as deeper moisture works its way back
into southern wi.

Expect steadier rain showers to develop this morning across far
southern wisconsin. These showers will be efficient rain
producers. Isolated thunder is expected as well. Periods of rain
will persist through the evening and gradually diminish Friday
morning. Expect mainly MVFR ceilings of 1000 to 2000 feet in the
rain today. Lower ceilings are possible south of the main rain
band. Ceilings should remainVFR north of the main rain band.

Marine...

easterly winds will increase throughout the day and become
northeasterly tonight. This will help to build high waves. A small
craft advisory GOES into effect this evening. Winds and waves will
diminish Friday night.

Beaches...

persistent east to northeast winds will build high waves tonight
through Friday night. Dangerous currents along the shoreline are
expected during this time, especially during the daylight hours on
Friday. A beach hazards statement will be needed.

Mkx watches warnings advisories
Wi... Flash flood watch through Friday morning for wiz067>070-072.

Lm... Small craft advisory from 7 pm this evening to 4 am cdt Saturday
for lmz644>646.

Update... Cronce
today tonight and aviation marine... Cronce
Friday through Wednesday... Bsh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
KNSW3 - Kenosha, WI 11 mi82 min ENE 12 G 12 61°F 1010.2 hPa (+0.7)
WHRI2 - Waukegan Harbor, IL 13 mi42 min NE 11 G 13 61°F
MLWW3 - Milwaukee, WI 39 mi32 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 59°F
FSTI2 40 mi142 min NE 7 63°F
45013 43 mi75 min NNE 1.9 G 1.9 57°F 57°F1 ft1011.3 hPa
OKSI2 44 mi142 min E 1.9 G 2.9 64°F
CHII2 - Chicago, IL 45 mi32 min E 13 G 13 65°F 65°F
45177 46 mi142 min 65°F1 ft
CNII2 48 mi22 min NE 8.9 G 9.9 64°F 62°F

Wind History for Calumet Harbor, IL
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Kenosha, Kenosha Regional Airport, WI7 mi29 minE 124.00 miFog/Mist67°F63°F87%1010 hPa
Chicago/Waukegan Regional Airport, IL8 mi27 minENE 12 G 173.00 miFog/Mist65°F63°F93%1009.2 hPa
Racine, Batten International Airport, WI21 mi29 minE 96.00 miFog/Mist66°F63°F90%1010.7 hPa
Burlington Municipal Airport, WI22 mi47 minENE 610.00 miPartly Cloudy56°F51°F86%1010.2 hPa

Wind History from ENW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE4NE8NE4E7E74NE6E11NE9E6E4NE5NE7E7E5E3E3E7E6E8E7E8E10E12
1 day agoE13NE6N6NE7NE8NE7NE9N7NE5N6NE6N6NE10N7N7N4N6N5NE5NE6NE7NE7NE6E5
2 days agoW9
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
target = "new">Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Milwaukee, WI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.