Thursday, October19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Marblehead, MA

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 5:55PM Thursday October 19, 2017 10:24 AM EDT (14:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:36AMMoonset 6:15PM Illumination 1% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 29 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ251 Massachusetts Bay And Ipswich Bay- 1016 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect from 2 pm edt this afternoon through late tonight...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 20 kt. Seas around 2 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the evening. Seas around 2 ft.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Seas are reported as significant wave height, which is the average of the highest third of the waves. Individual wave heights may be more than twice the significant wave height.
ANZ200 1016 Am Edt Thu Oct 19 2017
Synopsis for massachusetts and rhode island coastal waters.. High pressure southeast of new england will provide dry weather and southwest winds today. A dry cold front will move across the waters tonight. Strong high pressure over the appalachians Friday will move east across the southern new england coastal waters this weekend. For information on possible hazardous weather beyond the 24-36 hour forecast period, please visit www.weather.gov/boston and follow the current hazards link above the map on the left.

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Marblehead, MA
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location: 42.5, -70.85     debug


Area Discussion for - Boston, MA
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Fxus61 kbox 191409
afdbox
area forecast discussion
national weather service taunton ma
1009 am edt Thu oct 19 2017

Synopsis
High pressure will maintain dry weather and warmer than normal
temperatures through the weekend. Precipitation chances will
increase by the middle of next week.

Near term until 6 pm this evening
Goes 16 image at 10 am shows lingering patch of valley fog
around greenfield ma and upriver. Additional patches are either
gone or trending quickly to non-existance.

Surface pressure map shows high pressure in place over the
eastern usa with axis from the southeast usa to just south of
new england. This will mean a developing southwest flow across
the region. Winds aloft are showing 15-20 knots through 5000
feet and around 25 knots at 6000-7000 feet.

Model data shows winds in the mixed layer will increase this
afternoon with speeds around 25 knots. So the afternoon may
feature gusty southwest winds.

Observed temps in the mixed layer this morning support highs in
the lower to mid 70s. Will maintain current forecast temps.

Short term 6 pm this evening through 6 pm Friday
Tonight... Weak front shifts to the east. Clear skies. Winds
shift to the W and weaken overnight. Lows mainly in the 40s
except some 50s CAPE and islands.

Friday... Strong high pressure centered over the appalachians
will provide bright sunshine. Northwest winds may gust to near
20 mph during the afternoon. High temperatures are only
expected to be slightly cooler... In the upper 60s to around 70.

Long term Friday night through Wednesday
* above average temperatures with dry conditions lasting into Monday
* precipitation chances are increasing for the middle of next week.

19 00z guidance remains in excellent agreement through this weekend.

High pressure in control with dry weather and above normal
temperatures continuing.

Some detail difference begin to arise with the handling of a closed
mid level low across the southern tier of the usa early next week.

These detail differences are almost entirely the result of timing
differences in breaking down the strong mid level ridge along the
eastern seaboard. The primary impact of this closed low will be to
provide energy ahead of a cold front toward the middle of next week.

Given the strength of the downstream ridge, will favor the less
progressive guidance, which would be closer to the 00z ecmwf.

That said, it is becoming increasingly likely our region will see
some light precipitation sometime late Monday night into Wednesday,
with the most likely timeframe currently being around Tuesday. This
could change over the next several days as the timing of a slow-
moving front becomes clearer.

Aviation 14z Thursday through Monday
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... Generally high confidence.

Vfr and clear skies for the afternoon. A weak cold front
approaches, but dry air will limit the sky cover to some cirrus.

Sw winds may gust to 23-27 kt this afternoon, especially toward
21z.

Vfr conditions tonight and Friday. Winds shifting to the w
tonight and diminishing, then NW Friday with gusts up to 20 kt.

Kbos terminal... High confidence in taf.

Kbdl terminal... High confidence in taf.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ...

high confidence.VFR.

Marine
Forecaster confidence levels...

low - less than 30 percent.

Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.

High - greater than 60 percent.

Short term through Friday ... High confidence.

This afternoon and tonight... Southwest winds increase this
afternoon with gusts to around 25 kt likely over all waters by
late afternoon and a slight increase in outer seas to near 5 ft.

These winds persist into the overnight, then slowly diminish as
they shift to the W late tonight. Small craft advisories are in
effect for all waters.

Friday... Nw winds may gust to 20 kt and seas are forecast to
slowly subside to 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook Friday night through Monday ... High confidence.

Great boating weather as high pressure prevails through this
upcoming weekend with sub small craft advisory conditions.

Fire weather
Ahead of a very weak cold front, southwest winds will gust
20-25 mph across much of the region this afternoon. There is a
chance of a few gusts to 25-30 mph by 4 or 5 pm. Relatively mild
conditions (highs in the low-mid 70s) and continued dry
dewpoints in the mid 40s to low 50s will yield min rh values
between 30 and 35 percent, especially in ct and
western northern mass. With an overall recent lack of
precipitation, there could be an elevated fire weather risk for
today. A special weather statement continues to highlight this
risk.

On Friday, NW winds will be a little less, closer to 20 mph, but
the minimum rh will be closer to 30 percent. Thus there could
again be some risk of elevated fire potential.

Box watches warnings advisories
Ct... None.

Ma... None.

Ri... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to 4 am edt
Friday for anz231>234-250-251-254.

Small craft advisory from 2 pm this afternoon to midnight edt
tonight for anz230-236.

Small craft advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 6 am edt
Friday for anz235-237-255-256.

Synopsis... Wtb belk gaf
near term... Wtb
short term... Gaf
long term... Belk
aviation... Belk gaf
marine... Belk gaf
fire weather...



Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BHBM3 - 8443970 - Boston, MA 15 mi54 min 60°F 1022.1 hPa
44013 - BOSTON 16 NM East of Boston, MA 15 mi94 min SSE 12 G 14 56°F 58°F1 ft1022.8 hPa (-0.3)
44029 - Buoy A0102 - Mass. Bay/Stellwagen 15 mi80 min S 14 G 16 59°F 59°F2 ft1022.2 hPa
IOSN3 - Isle of Shoals, NH 34 mi84 min SSW 14 G 15 56°F 1022.1 hPa (-0.7)51°F
BGXN3 - Great Bay Reserve, NH 39 mi99 min Calm 50°F 1023 hPa50°F
44098 - Jeffrey's Ledge, NH (160) 42 mi48 min 58°F3 ft

Wind History for Providence, RI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Beverly, Beverly Municipal Airport, MA7 mi31 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy64°F53°F68%1021.9 hPa
Boston, Logan International Airport, MA13 mi30 minSW 12 G 1610.00 miA Few Clouds64°F51°F63%1022.7 hPa
Lawrence Municipal Airport, MA21 mi30 minS 610.00 miFair61°F50°F67%1022.9 hPa
Bedford, Hanscom Field, MA23 mi88 minSSW 86.00 miPartly Cloudy with Haze55°F48°F80%1024.1 hPa
East Milton, MA24 mi88 minS 12 mi57°F51°F81%1024.2 hPa

Wind History from BVY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW946NW9W9SW6SW8SW3CalmS3S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmS4S5S6
1 day agoN45W4W8SW54SW5SW4CalmS3SW5SW7SW8SW8SW6SW7SW8SW8SW7SW5W6W5W4W9
2 days agoNW12
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NW11NW6NW10NW10NW14NW14
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NW9NW8NW7NW7NW5NW7NW6NW6N5NW5NW5NW7NW5

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead, Massachusetts
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Marblehead
Click for Map
Thu -- 05:17 AM EDT     -0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     10.21 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 05:43 PM EDT     -0.49 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
9.68.36.23.51.1-0.20.11.53.66.28.61010.19.17.14.51.8-0.1-0.40.52.34.87.39.2

Tide / Current Tables for Marblehead Channel, Massachusetts Current
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Marblehead Channel
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:07 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 04:12 AM EDT     -0.48 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 06:17 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 06:36 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.49 knots Max Flood
Thu -- 12:33 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 03:12 PM EDT     New Moon
Thu -- 04:37 PM EDT     -0.50 knots Max Ebb
Thu -- 05:54 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 06:15 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 06:45 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Thu -- 10:07 PM EDT     0.46 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.
12am1am2am3am4am5am6am7am8am9am10am11am12pm1pm2pm3pm4pm5pm6pm7pm8pm9pm10pm11pm
0-0.2-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.4-0.10.20.40.50.50.30.1-0.1-0.3-0.4-0.5-0.5-0.30.10.30.40.50.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Northeast    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Boston, MA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Boston, MA
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.