Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Brocton, NY
May 14, 2024 12:12 AM EDT (04:12 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 5:52 AM Sunset 8:34 PM Moonrise 10:42 AM Moonset 1:11 AM |
LEZ061 Ripley To Buffalo Ny Extending From 5nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- Conneaut Oh To Ripley Ny Beyond 5 Nm Off Shoreline To Us- Canadian Border- 944 Pm Edt Mon May 13 2024
Overnight - South winds 5 to 15 knots becoming southwest. Waves 1 to 2 feet.
Tuesday - South winds 10 knots or less becoming southwest. A slight chance of showers early, then a chance of showers. Showers likely with a slight chance of Thunderstorms late. Waves 1 foot or less.
Tuesday night - East winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northeast. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots. A chance of showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Wednesday night - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of showers in the evening. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Thursday - Northeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southeast. A chance of showers Thursday night. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday - South winds 5 to 10 knots becoming southwest. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day, then a chance of showers and Thunderstorms Friday night. Waves 2 feet or less.
Saturday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south. A chance of showers during the day. Waves 1 foot or less.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ005
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FXUS61 KBUF 140249 AFDBUF
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1049 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers associated with a passing warm front will remain along the northern fringe of the north country through most of the night. This front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the middle of the week. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Showers are found mainly across the far northern portion of the eastern Lake Ontario area currently, as a warm front pushes northeast across the region. Showers will settle a bit farther north along the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Current temperatures across the area are in the low/mid 60s for most areas, with the slightly warmer temperatures across WNY.
The warm front will stall from the north shores of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. Chances of showers will linger near the boundary, while the bulk of Western NY will be rain free. Temperatures will fall to the 50s tonight.
The frontal boundary to the north will slowly sag southward during the day Tuesday. Limited diurnal instability will develop across Western NY, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. The greatest coverage will be south and east of Lake Ontario with slightly lower chances on and along its immediate shorelines. Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but weak flow aloft will result in slow storm motion. The potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. Modest PWAT values lower the risk for flash flooding, but the risk is non-zero.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A 500 hPa trough will pass across the Ohio Valley and the mid- Appalachians Wednesday and Wednesday night. While most of the showers associated with this feature will be to our south, there will be a easterly flow of Atlantic moisture into our region that will bring scattered showers through the day Wednesday. Highest chances for showers will be to our east, closer to the deeper Atlantic moisture, but also along a convergent boundary. This boundary, southeast flow around the trough aloft, and northeast flow from a incoming area of high pressure, will serve as a boundary for likely PoPs through the afternoon, and into the evening hours. The light flow could lead to some patches of fog Wednesday night in areas where daytime rain occurred.
Highs Wednesday will reach towards 70 near the Lakes, while inland and under deeper moisture and rain showers...mid 60s. Temperatures at night will dip down into the mid 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A progressive flow aloft with impulses and shortwaves rippling through will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage.
To start this period, Thursday will be mostly dry, with low PWATS and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far enough westward into our eastern CWA
This western trough, and its additional lift, will push eastward, likely in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Will place likely PoPs with the trough passage, along with a slight chance for thunder with MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG ahead of the trough. Behind the trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers Sunday.
Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will average just above normal, and then the final two days of this period, Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with a milder airmass pushing northward.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather for most locations tonight as the frontal boundary lifts northward. Some showers may linger near KART which will be closest to the boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with instability Tuesday afternoon. Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate southwesterly flow today, but winds will be strongest on the land due to lake breeze enhancement. Winds on the waters expected to remain below Small Craft criteria. After this, there will be a relatively weak flow, with winds expected to remain below 15 knots through Friday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1049 PM EDT Mon May 13 2024
SYNOPSIS
Showers associated with a passing warm front will remain along the northern fringe of the north country through most of the night. This front will usher in a period warm and unsettled weather which will last through the middle of the week. After this, a weak high pressure ridge will provide warm and mainly rain-free weather outside of a few afternoon showers.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM TUESDAY EVENING/
Showers are found mainly across the far northern portion of the eastern Lake Ontario area currently, as a warm front pushes northeast across the region. Showers will settle a bit farther north along the St. Lawrence Valley tonight. Current temperatures across the area are in the low/mid 60s for most areas, with the slightly warmer temperatures across WNY.
The warm front will stall from the north shores of Lake Ontario to the Saint Lawrence Valley tonight. Chances of showers will linger near the boundary, while the bulk of Western NY will be rain free. Temperatures will fall to the 50s tonight.
The frontal boundary to the north will slowly sag southward during the day Tuesday. Limited diurnal instability will develop across Western NY, with showers and a few thunderstorms developing Tuesday afternoon. The greatest coverage will be south and east of Lake Ontario with slightly lower chances on and along its immediate shorelines. Precipitable water values nearing 1.25" not too far above climatological normals, but weak flow aloft will result in slow storm motion. The potential exists for repeated rainfall which could be heavy at times with any convective activity. Modest PWAT values lower the risk for flash flooding, but the risk is non-zero.
SHORT TERM /6 PM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
A 500 hPa trough will pass across the Ohio Valley and the mid- Appalachians Wednesday and Wednesday night. While most of the showers associated with this feature will be to our south, there will be a easterly flow of Atlantic moisture into our region that will bring scattered showers through the day Wednesday. Highest chances for showers will be to our east, closer to the deeper Atlantic moisture, but also along a convergent boundary. This boundary, southeast flow around the trough aloft, and northeast flow from a incoming area of high pressure, will serve as a boundary for likely PoPs through the afternoon, and into the evening hours. The light flow could lead to some patches of fog Wednesday night in areas where daytime rain occurred.
Highs Wednesday will reach towards 70 near the Lakes, while inland and under deeper moisture and rain showers...mid 60s. Temperatures at night will dip down into the mid 50s.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
A progressive flow aloft with impulses and shortwaves rippling through will maintain chances for showers and thunderstorms this period, with the best chances for showers and even a rumble of thunder Friday night and Saturday with a trough passage.
To start this period, Thursday will be mostly dry, with low PWATS and a narrow ridge of high pressure nearby...this between an east coast low, and trough across the Plains. However there is a possibility that a few showers from the east coast low sneak far enough westward into our eastern CWA
This western trough, and its additional lift, will push eastward, likely in the Friday night to Saturday timeframe. Will place likely PoPs with the trough passage, along with a slight chance for thunder with MUCAPE values around 500 J/KG ahead of the trough. Behind the trough lowering chances for precipitation, through a secondary trough dropping out of Canada may bring chances for showers Sunday.
Temperatures Thursday through Saturday will average just above normal, and then the final two days of this period, Sunday and Monday will be even warmer with a milder airmass pushing northward.
AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
Dry weather for most locations tonight as the frontal boundary lifts northward. Some showers may linger near KART which will be closest to the boundary. Mainly VFR flight conditions for tonight through Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms increase with instability Tuesday afternoon. Mainly VFR with localized IFR in heavier showers and thunderstorms.
Outlook...
Tuesday night...MVFR/IFR in showers, stratus, and fog.
Wednesday...MVFR/IFR with a chance of showers, along with lingering stratus. Improving later Wednesday and Wednesday night.
Thursday...VFR.
Friday...VFR. A chance of showers late.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.
MARINE
Moderate southwesterly flow today, but winds will be strongest on the land due to lake breeze enhancement. Winds on the waters expected to remain below Small Craft criteria. After this, there will be a relatively weak flow, with winds expected to remain below 15 knots through Friday.
BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NY...None.
MARINE...None.
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| DBLN6 - Dunkirk, NY | 7 mi | 73 min | S 2.9G | 67°F | 29.83 | |||
| 45142 - Port Colborne | 20 mi | 73 min | SSW 7.8G | 57°F | 50°F | 1 ft | 29.83 | |
| NREP1 | 23 mi | 103 min | S 8G | 69°F | ||||
| PSTN6 - 9063028 - Sturgeon Point, NY | 27 mi | 55 min | 64°F | 29.80 | ||||
| EREP1 | 39 mi | 55 min | SSW 5.1G | |||||
| BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY | 41 mi | 55 min | S 2.9G | 62°F | 59°F | 29.80 | 51°F | |
| NIAN6 - 9063012 - Niagara Intake, NY | 47 mi | 55 min | 60°F | 29.82 | ||||
| WCRP1 | 49 mi | 73 min | SSE 7G | 68°F |
toggle option: (graph/table)
| Airport | Dist | Age | Wind kt | Vis | Sky | Weather | Temp | DewPt | RH | inHg |
| KDKK CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY/DUNKIRK,NY | 12 sm | 19 min | S 09 | 10 sm | Clear | 68°F | 48°F | 49% | 29.84 |
Buffalo, NY,
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