Tuesday, September26, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:23PM Tuesday September 26, 2017 8:39 AM EDT (12:39 UTC) Moonrise 12:34PMMoonset 10:28PM Illumination 33% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 /o.exp.kdtx.ma.w.0050.000000t0000z-170904t2300z/ 652 Pm Edt Mon Sep 4 2017
.the special marine warning will expire at 700 pm edt... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... St. Clair river... While Thunderstorms have weakened significantly, expect occasional lightning and heavy downpours along with isolated wind gusts to near 30 knots. A severe Thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 pm edt for southeastern michigan. Lat...lon 4262 8252 4255 8258 4254 8266 4238 8282 4232 8307 4224 8313 4211 8313 4210 8322 4225 8318 4233 8311 4239 8294 4244 8291 4254 8291 4259 8285 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4274 8252 4275 8248 time...mot...loc 2250z 262deg 50kt 4283 8189 4228 8280
This is a Weather Statement Zone, please check the Date to see if it has expired
LCZ423 Expires:201709042300;;893398 FZUS73 KDTX 042252 MWSDTX MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 652 PM EDT MON SEP 4 2017 LCZ422-423-460-042300-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 261110
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
710 am edt Tue sep 26 2017

Aviation
Another round of light fog around sunrise will precedeVFR for the
rest of the day and into this evening. There will be an increase in
high clouds during the afternoon, and a light but more consistent
southwest wind, as a cold front moves closer from the midwest. This
front is due to reach SE michigan tonight after midnight and exit
into ohio shortly after sunrise Wednesday. A moderate northwest wind
shift will include a pattern of borderline MVFR ifr ceiling and a
low chance of showers as the front moves through the region.

For dtw... VFR under increasing high clouds during afternoon will
thicken and lower tonight. Ceiling will remain above 5000 ft through
evening and then become MVFR ifr with the frontal passage around 11z
Wednesday morning.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* moderate for ceiling 5000 ft or less Wednesday morning.

Prev discussion
Issued at 315 am edt Tue sep 26 2017
discussion...

one more day with high temperatures topping out at 90 degrees, as
the trend of the cold front looks to be a bit slower. With 850 mb
temps progged to reach and slightly exceed 18 c this afternoon, high
confidence in maxes reaching 90 degrees or even slightly better based
on upstream observations yesterday and with the favorable light
southwest low level flow today, which should lead to fairly uniform
temperatures across southeast michigan, + - 2 degrees from 90.

Still favoring a dry or mainly dry frontal passage with little to no
upper level support PV advection, as local probabilistic sref
weighted guidance indicating pops under 30 percent. Instability
looks to be limited to a couple hundred j kg of mucape, and if there
is any activity, looks to be north of i-69, in the tail of the 850
mb low level jet.

With the surface cold front looking to come through Wednesday
morning, should allow detroit to hit 80 degrees on Wednesday before
the deeper cool air can become established. 925-850 mb temps then
falling into the mid single numbers Wednesday night, as pronounced
surface ridging arrives Thursday morning. MAX temperatures
potentially coming up just short of 70 degrees on Thursday, as 850 mb
temps look to only recover to around 6 c.

Seasonably strong upper level wave trough coming out of the gulf of
alaska will encompass the great lakes region on Friday, but remain
progressive, with the trough axis moving off the east coast by 00z
Sunday already, per 00z euro. Upper level northwest confluent flow
over the weekend will lead to dry conditions as the large area of
high pressure is slow to slide eastward. If the center of the high
remains parked over over the central great lakes Saturday night,
could see min temperatures dip into the upper 30s across the normally
colder spots. Fog could turn out to be an issue as well. With the
chilly airmass and limited mixing depths, looking at daytime temps
holding in the 60s. Forecast is mostly sunny for the weekend, but
always have to be leary of good diurnal CU up.

Building heights and increasing southwest flow early next week will
support another significant warm up, with 80 degrees not out of the
question by the time we get to Tuesday, but still big differences in
the position of the strong upper level ridge, based off the 00z
euro GFS canadian solutions.

Marine...

after one more day of warm conditions and light wind, a cold front
will cross the central great lakes late tonight through Wednesday
morning. The front will drop temperatures back down to readings more
typical for late september and produce a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Winds behind the front will turn northwest at
moderate speed, especially over the open waters of northern and
central lake huron where gusts around 30 knots will be possible
through Wednesday evening. Part of the forecast to monitor remains
wave height trends in the nearshore areas which are expected to
remain below criteria for small craft advisories due to the
northwest fetch. High pressure will settle over the region Thursday
followed quickly by another low pressure system and cold front due
Friday. This system will bring a reinforcement of colder air and
unstable marine conditions Friday and Friday night before rapid
improvement occurs with high pressure during the weekend.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Bt
discussion... Sf
marine... ... .Bt
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi39 min Calm G 1 73°F 1016.3 hPa (+0.7)
45147 - Lake St Clair 36 mi99 min SSW 3.9 G 5.8 74°F 73°F1014.6 hPa (-0.0)
AGCM4 44 mi51 min 67°F 1015.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi49 min SW 8.9 G 8.9 73°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi51 min SW 2.9 G 5.1 71°F 1015.9 hPa62°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi44 minN 07.00 miPartly Cloudy69°F65°F87%1016.6 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi46 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist65°F64°F97%1015 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi46 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist69°F66°F93%1015.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi46 minS 53.00 miShallow Fog Fog/Mist70°F68°F93%1015.5 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi46 minN 05.00 miFog/Mist64°F63°F96%1015.5 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmS3E3CalmS6S5SE4SE5SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmSE3CalmS4S6S5SE3SE5E5E5E5E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE5E4SE3SE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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weather_mapweather_map weather_map

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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.