Thursday, December13, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:53AMSunset 5:02PM Thursday December 13, 2018 2:42 PM EST (19:42 UTC) Moonrise 12:17PMMoonset 10:59PM Illumination 37% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 6 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 /o.can.kdtx.ma.w.0040.000000t0000z-181006t2345z/ 710 Pm Edt Sat Oct 6 2018
.the special marine warning is cancelled... The affected areas were... Detroit river... Michigan waters of lake erie from detroit river to north cape mi... The Thunderstorm has moved out of the area and no longer poses a significant threat to boaters. Lat...lon 4216 8321 4218 8313 4213 8312 4205 8315 4202 8314 4198 8315 4197 8318 4196 8328 time...mot...loc 2308z 250deg 36kt 4214 8305
LCZ423 Expires:201810062320;;348663 FZUS73 KDTX 062310 MWSDTX Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 710 PM EDT SAT OCT 6 2018 LCZ423-LEZ444-062320-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 131733
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1233 pm est Thu dec 13 2018

Aviation
Vfr conditions present as an area of clearing lifts north through
southern mi this afternoon. Conditions will deteriorate later this
evening after 00z as an area of rain lifts north through the region.

Current obs upstream validate guidance in bringing widespread MVFR
conditions to the region with a period of ifr likely in the heavier
rain as CIGS flirt with the 1kft threshold. Forecast ptype will be
for ra although it remains a possibility for a very brief period of
fzra at the onset. With temperatures hovering around the freezing
mark, will have to watch short term trends as the lead edge
approaches. Warmer temperatures at the detroit area sites will
likely keep precip as all rain throughout the event.

For dtw...VFR conditions with mainly cirrus will become MVFR ifr
after midnight as rain moves back into the area. Temperatures will
likely stay warm enough to mitigate any freezing rain potential at
the terminal, although a brief period may occur farther north
overnight.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* low for ceiling below 5000 ft before 00z. High after 00z.

* low for vsbys of 1 2 mile or less tonight.

* low for ptype of fzra tonight.

Prev discussion
Issued at 408 am est Thu dec 13 2018
discussion...

high magnitude differential height rises in the wake of last evenings
potential vorticity anomaly has resulted in rapid onset of shortwave
ridging across all of southeast michigan. The ridging has led to
predominately quiet weather conditions overnight. There was drizzle
activity around midnight, however, there is no evidence, radar or
surface observing sites, suggesting any lingering activity. Forecast
model data has been too cold with surface temperatures overnight.

This lends to some uncertainty with timing of surface temperatures
falling below freezing. Given temperature and dewpoint spreads,
still feel confident temperatures will drop to a degree or two below
freezing by daybreak.

The gradient wind will turn the southwest by this afternoon as the
shortwave ridge axis slides overhead. Not surprisingly, warm
advection will ramp up as flow trajectories turn southerly. Forecast
soundings show a very strong subsidence inversion today between
approximately 2.0 to 7.0 kft agl. This should serve as a lid and
help in the preservation of stratus today. Admittingly there is low
confidence in both the coverage and timing of clouds as clear air is
just to the south over ohio and indiana. Most likely there will be
some clearing this afternoon with the southerly flow.

An extremely complex upper level height pattern and jet stream
evolution event is anticipated over the next 48 hours over a greater
portion of eastern north america. The main culprit behind the
complexity is that a large upper level low pressure system will
attempt to cutoff over the far southern united states. All forecast
data supports that the upper level low will maintain some linkage to
the northern stream. The most pertinent aspect of the forecast is
that both northern and southern stream jet energy will begin to
merge by this evening directly over the western great lakes. The net
result is a positive increase in anticylonic flow trajectories aloft
and increasing upper level diffluence. Additionally, an extension of
a weak low level jet branch will lift directly into southern
michigan this evening. A slug of moisture is forecasted to break
away and push up the warm frontal slope into lower michigan tonight.

Overwhelmingly the forecast data supports liquid precipitation types
for all of the cwa. Decided to hold off on bulk of pops until after
midnight. The only question is what will surface temperatures be.

Given the evolution of the forecast soundings, the forecasted depth
of the saturated warm layer aloft, and the skin deep freezing layer
right at the surface, feel that any freezing rain activity will be
brief. At this time, there is low confidence in how the surface
temperatures will respond. Therefore, decided to go with the verbiage
of rain or freezing rain north of the m 59 corridor. With no
sustained easterly fetch or depth to the freezing layer, confidence
is high that no significant impacts will result. Icing amount of a
hundereth or two will little to no accretion potential.

Categorical rain is then expected to continue for areas north and
west of metro detroit through roughly 17z. Warm sector established
in the wake of the precipitation will see temperatures rise above 40
degrees for most areas, potentially mid 40s south.

The question for this weekend is whether or not precipitation from
the southern u.S. Anomaly will brush into the cwa. The ECMWF remains
steadfast in keeping precipitation bottled up to the south. The ecmwf
is showing strong confluent flow aloft supporting a strong surface
anticyclone over the great lakes Saturday. The NAM is an outlier,
keeping the mammoth closed low much more progressive lifting to the
ohio river by Saturday. This northern positioning allows for a well
defined shearing deformation band to lift slowly into the southern
cwa this weekend. Feeling is that convection over the deep south
will have a hand in the eventual outcome of this event. Preference
sides with the gfs ECMWF at this time for predominately dry
conditions. Mild weather this weekend with temperatures rising into
the lower 40s.

Marine...

winds will veer from southeast to the southwest throughout today as
a high pressure ridge quickly passes through. This will lead to
lighter winds with gusts generally 20 knots or less into Friday.

There will be increasing rain snow chances early Friday morning as
precipitation lifts northeastward into the central great lakes.

Winds will then turn out of the north overnight Friday, eventually
becoming northeast on Saturday as a low pressure system passes south
of the great lakes. Gusty n-ne winds are possible from Saturday
morning into early Sunday morning, especially across lake erie where
the pressure gradient will be strongest. Winds gradually weaken as
low pressure system moves toward the east coast. Brief period of
lighter winds for Sunday afternoon before strong winds out of the
northwest accompany a cold front as it passes through lake huron.

Gusts around 30 knots will be possible Monday morning and afternoon.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... None.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Aviation... ..Drk
discussion... Cb
marine... ... .Aa
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi43 min ESE 8 G 8 34°F 1021.7 hPa (-0.7)
AGCM4 44 mi43 min 38°F 40°F1020.9 hPa (-0.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi43 min ESE 5.1 G 6 36°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi43 min N 1 G 2.9 37°F 1021 hPa (-0.7)30°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi48 minSSE 310.00 miMostly Cloudy40°F28°F62%1021 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi50 minSSE 77.00 miMostly Cloudy37°F28°F70%1020.2 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi50 minS 56.00 miOvercast with Haze39°F28°F67%1021.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi50 minS 98.00 miMostly Cloudy43°F27°F53%1021.4 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi50 minS 99.00 miFair42°F30°F62%1021.1 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrE3SE6SE5SE4S5S3SW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW4NW4W3SW4W3CalmN3CalmCalmS4S4
1 day agoNW8W11
G19
NW7W3W5W6W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3CalmS4SE7SE6E8E8E6
2 days agoS4SW3S3S5S5SW6SW7S8
G14
S6SW10SW8SW6S7SW8
G16
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SW10S9SW9S7SW8SW6SW4W7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.