Friday, March22, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Farmington Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:31AMSunset 7:49PM Friday March 22, 2019 1:52 AM EDT (05:52 UTC) Moonrise 8:56PMMoonset 7:48AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ423 Expires:201903150145;;390439 Fzus73 Kdtx 150100 Mwsdtx Marine Weather Statement National Weather Service Detroit/pontiac Mi 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019 Lcz422-423-460-lhz442-443-463-464-150145- /o.con.kdtx.ma.w.0001.000000t0000z-190315t0145z/ 900 Pm Edt Thu Mar 14 2019
.a special marine warning remains in effect until 945 pm edt... For the following areas... Detroit river... Harbor beach to port sanilac mi... Lake huron from harbor beach to port sanilac 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake huron from port sanilac to port huron 5nm off shore to us/canadian border... Lake st. Clair open lake (u.s. Portion)... Port sanilac to port huron mi... St. Clair river... At 900 pm edt, strong Thunderstorms were located along a line extending from 15 nm east of harbor beach to near lexington to 18 nm northwest of wyandotte, moving northeast at 40 knots. Hazard...wind gusts 34 knots or greater and small hail. Source...radar indicated. Impact...small craft could be damaged in briefly higher winds and suddenly higher waves. Strong Thunderstorms will be near... Lexington and lakeport around 905 pm edt. St. Clair shores around 945 pm edt. Other locations impacted by strong Thunderstorms include richmondville. Precautionary/preparedness actions... Move to safe harbor until hazardous weather passes. && lat...lon 4292 8246 4262 8252 4254 8266 4237 8283 4232 8306 4215 8313 4214 8322 4233 8312 4239 8295 4266 8285 4272 8269 4270 8261 4264 8256 4265 8255 4301 8247 4322 8256 4365 8263 4384 8228 4385 8218 4359 8212 time...mot...loc 0100z 234deg 38kt 4375 8231 4323 8251 4239 8350 hail...<.75in wind...>34kts
LCZ423


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Farmington Hills, MI
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location: 42.51, -83.35     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 220349
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
1149 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019

Aviation
A narrow sfc ridge axis was able to support a fairly aggressive
clearing trend this evening. A deep upper trough now pushing toward
se mi from the north will drive a cold front across SE mi around
06z, leading to a gradual veering of the winds to the northwest.

Post frontal moisture advection and steepening lapse rates will
support scattered to numerous snow showers across SE mi during the
morning. Ceilings and visibilities are likely to show wide
variability through the morning. Strong high pressure will then push
into the area from the northwest Friday afternoon. This and good mid
level subsidence will inhibit much of an afternoon diurnal response.

A strong post frontal northwest gradient, with a deepening mixed
layer due to both cold air advection and diurnal heating will
support gusty winds, likely over 25 knots at times, through the day
Friday.

For dtw... The sfc cold front will pass across metro shortly after
06z. While the better chances for morning snow showers is expected
to hold north of metro, there is at least a good chance for some
brief snow shower activity centered in the 11 to 15z time frame.

There is expected to be enough of a northerly wind component to
limit the potential for crosswind concerns Friday morning within the
gusty post frontal winds.

Dtw threshold probabilities
* high in ceilings AOB 5000 ft tonight and Friday.

* moderate in precip type being snow tonight and Friday morning.

* low in crosswind thresholds being exceeded Friday morning and
afternoon.

Prev discussion
Issued at 901 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
update...

a fairly vigorous upper wave is currently pushing south across
northern lower and upper michigan. The lead edge of the strongest pv
advection is triggering a region of radar returns across NE lower mi.

Despite the strong ascent there is a notable lack of deep layer
moisture across NRN lower ATTM per 00z kapx sounding. So there is
likely little reaching the ground from these returns to the north.

The strong ascent will overspread SE mi late this evening and carry
into the overnight, with moisture depth continuing to be a limiting
factor for precipitation. A pool of a little better deep layer
moisture (currently positioned just north and east of the eastern up)
will advect across SE mi late tonight and during the course of
Friday morning, just behind the main mid level height fall center.

This moisture, combined with steep mid level lapse rates will support
scattered to numerous snow showers. The current forecast has this
handled well. So no major forecast adjustments will be made to the
going forecast attm.

Prev discussion...

issued at 357 pm edt Thu mar 21 2019
discussion...

low pressure over ohio continues eastward and merges with the much
stronger system on the mid atlantic coast during the late afternoon
and evening. This places SE michigan briefly under the influence of
a mid level ridge and associated subsidence between the atlantic
coast low and the next wave moving across northern ontario and
quebec. Afternoon observations suggest the equally brief surge of
surface high pressure is unable to fully break up the stratocu over
lower michigan as cloud moisture remains trapped under the mid level
inversion. A few pockets of meaningful open sky do remain possible
within the associated anticyclonic low level flow and before clouds
increase again ahead of the next cold front toward midnight.

The low moving through james bay sweeps the cold front southward
into southern lower michigan shortly after midnight. It brings a
very low chance of drizzle or light rain just ahead of and along the
boundary as the low level theta-e ridge builds west to east. Surface
temps that are projected to gradually cool from around 40 maintain a
freezing level high enough for all rain or a rain snow mix until
after midnight. Also, if any prefrontal precip occurs, it will be
close enough to the frontal passage to be swept into chance pops for
the rain snow mix changing to all snow showers later in the night.

The front is on the lead flank of the mid level trough digging
aggressively across the central great lakes which provides a boost
of dynamic support mainly in the colder air behind the front.

Moderate to strong DCVA and exit region jet forcing are shown to
occur with some overlap of deeper moisture and steeper low to mid
level lapse rate. This is expected to produce entry level likely
pops for coverage by sunrise Friday, and while QPF remains low in
model data, leans the forecast toward some potential for higher
achievement in the thumb region until the system exits eastward by
afternoon.

As the moisture pattern exits eastward, deeper and stronger
northerly low level flow becomes more substantial by late morning
through Friday afternoon. Gusts in the 30 mph range are likely
across SE michigan to near 40 mph near lake huron with a long fetch
down the lake and into shoreline areas. The resulting cold advection
limits high temperatures to the 30s near 40 when combined with a
substantial diurnal component of cloud cover. Wind and clouds then
decrease considerably Friday evening as a broad region of high
pressure builds in from the northern plains. This gets the weekend
off to a nice start with light wind and full Sun helping lift
temperatures into the mid 40s.

Cool start to Sunday morning in the 20s will warm up to around 50
degrees by the afternoon as some warmer air is advected into
southeast michigan with the help of an exiting high pressure system
and shortwave ridge. Precipitation chances will increase Sunday
night as a cold front is driven through michigan by troughing across
ontario and quebec. As the front moves southward, there will be a
southern stream wave ejecting out of the central plains which rides
along this front supporting this activity. Daytime temperatures will
allow for precipitation to start as rain with a transition to snow
overnight as temperatures continue to fall behind the front. Some
minor accumulations will be possible if the transition to snowfall
occurs earlier in the night. Cool temperatures and dry weather
settle in to start next week as expansive surface high and upper
ridge builds over the region. Temperatures at 850 mb will be nearing
negative 10c on Monday and Tuesday, which will keep high
temperatures mainly in the 30s with low temperatures Monday night
into Tuesday morning in the teens and 20s.

Marine...

light wind today will become strong northwesterly late tonight
through Friday in the wake of a passing cold front. Sustained near-
gales are expected Friday afternoon over the open waters of lake
huron. A gale warning is in effect for gusts to gales for the
balance of the day Friday. Small craft advisories have also been
issued for saginaw bay. Outer bay will gust to near-gales through
much of Friday while the northwest fetch favors elevated waves for
all of Friday and Friday night. Wave action is uncertain in inner
bay where a high percentage of ice cover will likely be lost during
the event. Nonetheless, gusts over ice free waters will easily reach
30 knots.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Gale warning from 8 am to 11 pm edt Friday for lhz362-363-441>443-
462>464.

Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lhz422.

Small craft advisory from 8 am Friday to 11 am edt Saturday for
lhz421.

Lake st clair... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lcz460.

Michigan waters of lake erie... Small craft advisory from 8 am to 8 pm edt Friday for lez444.

Aviation... ..Sc
update... ... .Sc
discussion... Bt aa
marine... ... .Jvc
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 25 mi53 min W 8 G 12 39°F 1010.8 hPa (-1.4)
AGCM4 44 mi53 min 38°F 35°F1009.7 hPa (-1.3)
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi53 min W 14 G 15 38°F
THRO1 - 9063085 - Toledo, OH 57 mi53 min W 6 G 11 38°F 1012.2 hPa (-0.3)28°F

Wind History for Toledo, OH
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI9 mi58 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy38°F29°F73%1011.2 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI12 mi60 minW 910.00 miOvercast35°F30°F82%1010.6 hPa
Coleman A Young Municipal Airport, MI18 mi60 minW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy38°F30°F73%1011 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI19 mi60 minW 99.00 miOvercast37°F28°F70%1011.8 hPa
Detroit, Willow Run Airport, MI22 mi60 minWSW 610.00 miA Few Clouds37°F28°F73%1011.5 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4S3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4NW4W4NW7W5W3W4W9W8W11
G15
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1 day agoSW4SW4SW3S3SW3SW4SW4S5S6S13
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SW6S5S9
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S6SE4S6SE3SE5S6S7S10
G15
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2 days agoW4W3W4CalmW3W3CalmCalmSW3SW5SW6NW3SW5W8
G15
W7W7SW9
G14
SW4SW7SW7S5SW5SW4SW4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.