Saturday, August19, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hunt, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
6/25/2017 - NOAA is having a major issue that impact the 7 day forecast load times. Many users are reporting problems. The issue has been reported.
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 6:22AMSunset 8:09PM Saturday August 19, 2017 2:41 PM EDT (18:41 UTC) Moonrise 2:50AMMoonset 5:44PM Illumination 7% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 27 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 653 Am Edt Sat Aug 19 2017
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
Today..West winds 15 to 25 knots. Partly Sunny this morning... Then becoming mostly Sunny. Waves 3 to 5 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Tonight..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming southwest 5 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy in the evening...then becoming mainly clear. Waves 3 to 5 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Waves occasionally around 6 feet.
Sunday..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Sunday night..Southwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming south. Mainly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.
Monday..South winds 5 to 10 knots. Mainly clear...then becoming partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms during the day...then showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms Tuesday night. Waves 1 to 3 feet building to 2 to 4 feet.
Wednesday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Showers likely with a chance of Thunderstorms during the day...then a chance of showers Wednesday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet. Winds and waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
LEZ041 Expires:201708191530;;618641 FZUS51 KBUF 191053 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 653 AM EDT Sat Aug 19 2017 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-191530-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hunt, NY
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location: 42.52, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 191432
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
1032 am edt Sat aug 19 2017

Synopsis
A weak upper level disturbance will cross the region today with a
few widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will
then bring a return to dry weather Sunday through Monday.

Temperatures will be briefly cooler today before becoming very warm
and humid again early next week. A cold front will bring another
round of showers and thunderstorms Tuesday, followed by much cooler
and less humid for the end of next week.

Near term through tonight
A weak low level trough will continue to cross the region through
this morning, bringing areas of cloud cover to much of the region.

The combination of convergence along the weak boundary, cooling air
aloft, and lake induced instability will support an area of lake
enhanced rain showers east of lake ontario. This should quickly
break apart by midday as diurnal mixing disrupts the delicate
lake induced convergence zone.

During the afternoon a fairly sharp mid level trough will approach
the region with increasing dpva. Radar shows line of showers
developing along the leading edge of this across eastern ohio,
with these likely to expand in coverage but largely stay just
south of the ny pa border. Otherwise, lake breeze boundaries
will play the primary role, with scattered showers and
thunderstorms developing from the western southern tier into the
western finger lakes and southern tug hill region this
afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms may also
develop across niagara and orleans counties where the breeze off
lake erie will encounter a northwesterly wind shift in the
afternoon. Otherwise, stable lake shadows will develop northeast
of the lakes this afternoon and prevent any convection from the
rest of the niagara frontier to rochester and across jefferson
county. This shadowing will also provide more sunshine.

A brief push of cooler air aloft will keep highs in the mid to upper
70s across lower elevations and lower 70s on the hills. It will
become breezy once again northeast of lake erie with gusts in the 20-
25 mph range.

The mid level trough will cross the region this evening. A few
showers may linger into this evening, elsewhere the trough will
just bring a period of greater cloud cover. Overnight a few
upslope showers will linger east of lake ontario along with more
cloud cover. Farther west, increasing subsidence and drying
will bring clearing skies. Expect lows to range from the lower
60s on the lake plains to the mid 50s across the interior
southern tier and lewis county.

Short term Sunday through Tuesday night
A sprawling surface high will move through upper ohio valley Sunday
then off the mid-atlantic coast Monday. A dynamic trough will dive
through the great lakes Tuesday sweeping a potent cold front across
the area Tuesday night.

Sunday and Monday will be characterized by building warmth and
humidity as return flow develops between the surface high moving off
the mid-atlantic and the impinging trough over the upper great
lakes. Temperatures will be near seasonal normals on Sunday with 850
mb temps around +12 to +14c, while increasing southwesterly flow
Monday and especially Tuesday ahead of the cold front will push 850
mb temperatures to around +18 to +19c. The combination of the warmer
airmass and downslope flow across the genesee valley and northern
finger lakes will result in upper 80s readings both day, with a
potential for a few sites to see the 90 degree mark. Northeast of
lakes erie and ontario, a stiff lake breeze will keep temperatures
slightly cooler, in the low to mid 80s. Dry weather and ample
sunshine will prevail with subsidence under the ridging aloft on
Sunday and Monday. This will provide ideal viewing conditions for
the solar eclipse on Monday afternoon. Monday night will be quite
warm and muggy ahead of the approaching front, with low temperatures
not likely to fall out of the 70s across the lake plains and dew
points in the upper 60s to near 70.

By Tuesday afternoon and into the overnight hours, shower and
thunderstorm chances will increase as the trough approaches and
crosses the region. A fairly dynamic shortwave rounding the base of
the trough will help provide forcing for ascent and also increasing
the wind shear Tuesday late afternoon and early evening. Current
model depictions of thermodynamic profiles suggest fairly tall,
skinny cape. However, given the strongly forced nature of the trough
passage with ample shear certainly cannot rule out a severe weather
threat of mainly damaging wind gusts. Severe weather potential is
still uncertain, and may change based on the timing of the front.

Long term Wednesday through Friday
A cooler airmass will work its way across the northeast in the wake
of the cold frontal passage Tuesday night, bringing a fall feel to
the second half of the work week. 850 mb temperatures will fall to
around +6c for Thursday and Friday with drier northerly flow as a
sprawling canadian surface high builds over the great lakes. The
result will be daytime high temperatures in the mid 70s Wednesday,
but in the upper 60s to low 70s for Thursday and Friday. Initially
some lingering moisture and upslope flow Wednesday will support some
isolated to widely scattered showers, especially over the higher
terrain where northerly upslope flow can help with orographic
ascent. Progressively drier air will build in, along with a lowering
subsidence inversion, with the surface high for Thursday and Friday.

Thus, despite the cooler temperatures aloft normally sufficient for
a lake response, don't expect we'll see much other than some
stubborn lake enhanced cloudiness south of the lower great lakes.

Aviation 15z Saturday through Wednesday
Areas of clouds will continue through early afternoon with a
mix ofVFR and MVFR cigs. Scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop this afternoon withVFR prevailing in
most areas, although any thunderstorm may produce brief local
MVFR to ifr conditions.

The convection will end this evening, although a few upslope showers
may continue across the higher terrain east of lake ontario where
some MVFR CIGS may also develop. Valley fog will develop late
tonight across the western southern tier with local ifr. Otherwise
vfr will prevail for the rest of the region.

Outlook...

Sunday and Monday...VFR except for late night and early morning
valley fog with local ifr.

Tuesday... MainlyVFR, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon.

Tuesday night... MVFR ifr, with showers and thunderstorms likely.

Wednesday...VFR MVFR with a chance of showers.

Marine
Based on latest guidance and the development of a convergence
band on lake erie have added a chance of waterspouts to the
forecast late this afternoon into tonight. Although the
850mb to lake temperatures difference is marginal, equilibrium
levels will increase significantly with the arrival of the upper
level trough.

Low pressure will move slowly east across quebec today and bring
another round of moderate to strong wsw winds to the eastern great
lakes. This will bring small craft advisory conditions to much of
lakes erie and ontario through this evening. Winds will then
diminish from west to east tonight. High pressure will bring a
return to lighter winds Sunday and Monday.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Beach hazards statement through this evening for nyz006-007-
010-019-085.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 11 pm edt this evening for lez020-
040-041.

Small craft advisory until 8 pm edt this evening for
loz042.

Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Sunday for loz044-045.

Synopsis... Hitchcock
near term... Apffel hitchcock
short term... Church
long term... Church
aviation... Apffel hitchcock
marine... Apffel hitchcock


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 52 mi41 min SW 12 G 19 72°F 1010.9 hPa (-0.3)64°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi41 min WSW 11 G 15 75°F 1011.5 hPa (-0.4)
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi41 min 75°F 1010.7 hPa (-0.4)

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY16 mi47 minNW 310.00 miOvercast76°F59°F56%1012.2 hPa

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Last 24hrNW6NW9NW11NW11
G18
NW8NW7CalmCalmCalm3--S5S4E4CalmSE3S3S3SE5CalmNW8NW6NW6NW3
1 day ago3NW6NW5CalmS4SE5SE7SE7CalmSE4S3SE6SE3SE4CalmSE3S5--SE3E44555
2 days agoNW7NW5NW8NW7N6NW4W3CalmCalmS6SE3SE4--SE5SE5SE7SE6--SE64SE65SE4SE8

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of Mid-Atlantic    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.