Thursday, November15, 2018 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hunt, NY

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
10/6/2018 Colors of tide XTide graphs changed to emphasize that they were upgraded. See next note. Comments welcome.
10/4/2018 I have fixed XTide and updated the harmonic files. There were some name changes so you might have to click EDIT to find the new station name.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 4:50PM Thursday November 15, 2018 3:22 AM EST (08:22 UTC) Moonrise 1:24PMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 48% Phase: First Quarter Moon; Moon at 7 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LEZ041 Buffalo To Ripley Along Lake Erie- 1231 Am Est Thu Nov 15 2018
Overnight..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly cloudy. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday..Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. A chance of freezing rain in the morning, then snow and rain in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot or less.
Thursday night..Southeast winds 10 knots or less. Snow and sleet in the evening, then snow and rain overnight. Waves 1 foot or less.
Friday..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots becoming west and increasing to 30 knots in the afternoon. Rain likely with areas of drizzle. Waves 2 feet or less building to 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
Friday night..West winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to 25 knots. A chance of rain showers. Waves 7 to 10 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves occasionally around 13 feet.
Saturday..West winds 15 to 20 knots becoming northwest 10 to 15 knots. Rain showers likely during the day, then snow and rain showers likely Saturday night. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
Sunday..Northwest winds 5 to 15 knots becoming west. A chance of snow showers. Waves 1 to 3 feet.
Monday..West winds 5 to 15 knots becoming northwest. A chance of snow showers. Waves 2 to 4 feet subsiding to 1 to 3 feet.
LEZ041 Expires:201811151000;;324222 FZUS51 KBUF 150533 NSHBUF Nearshore Marine Forecast National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1231 AM EST Thu Nov 15 2018 For waters within five nautical miles of shore Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest 1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum. LEZ040-041-151000-


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hunt, NY
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location: 42.52, -78.02     debug


Area Discussion for - Buffalo, NY
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Fxus61 kbuf 150657
afdbuf
area forecast discussion
national weather service buffalo ny
157 am est Thu nov 15 2018

Synopsis
High pressure will build across new york into new england today. The
next system will begin to impact the region late this morning and
last through Friday. Widespread accumulating snow with some ice is
likely across the area. A wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing
rain is expected for some areas before changing to all snow by
Friday morning; while other areas will remain all snow for most of
the duration of the storm.

Near term until 7 am this morning
High pressure across new york state tonight will drift into new
england through the morning. Lake effect precip and clouds from
earlier across the area have dissipated. For the most part the only
cloud cover over the area is high clouds moving in ahead of the next
system to impact the area.

Tonight will be dry and cold, especially east of lake ontario where
breaks in the clouds will be more likely and winds will be light due
to the close proximity of the surface high. Lows will range from
near 20 to the mid 20s south of lake ontario, with the coldest
readings in the teens possibly dropping to the single digits east of
lake ontario.

Short term 7 am this morning through Saturday night
Isentropic ascent centered in the 290-300k layer increases
rapidly during the afternoon on Thursday. This is in advance of
a warm push aloft commiserate with the filling inland low that
will be moving northward west of the allegheny front. A secluded
bubble of warm air aloft has been well depicted on several
successive runs of guidance that penetrates up into the southern
tier of new york with fairly good run-to-run continuity. This
warm air aloft will be marginally cold enough to change snow
over to sleet with thermal profiles showing the warmest layer
between 0 and +2c. There is a risk that heavier precipitation
will lead to a isothermal 0c sounding which may allow
heavier precipitation to fall as all snow. This said, there is
a risk of sleet mixing at times which could hold back snowfall
totals. With this in mind, precipitation type becomes the
biggest ball of wax to deal with Thursday afternoon and evening
as the column saturates and lifting increases.

Warm air aloft looks to get eroded by dynamical cooling as well as
cold air impinging from the the west as the coastal low gradually
takes over into Thursday night. This will allow for the secluded
bubble to erode as it advances eastward toward the northern finger
lakes such that it eventually becomes nonexistent. Before that
juncture, however, strong moisture transport in the lifted
layer means several hours of potential mixed precipitation in
the southern tier, south towns, and southern half of the
rochester area. Farther north, with less certainty on the warm
layer persisting, the forecast was trended more strongly toward
snow sleet as the gfs ECMWF both favor colder profiles, even
though higher resolution guidance does not.

Regardless of the profiles followed, this does not look like a very
efficient snow maker in terms of snow-to-liquid ratios. While lift
is strong in the 290-300k layer and does bisect the dendritic growth
layer, substantial riming below that layer will cut back on
ratios. With that in mind, slrs were capped at about 10:1 and
greatly reduced south of the thruway due to the influence of
warm air aloft and sleet freezing rain mixing into the frozen
precipitation spectrum. Regardless, in areas were it remains all
snow, a solid advisory snow seems likely, and in areas where it
doesn't, advisories will be necessary for icing. The only place
this isn't the case looks to be niagara county, which several
successive runs have shown to be just a tad outside of the
northwest fringe of the action from this system.

As the coastal low intensifies on late Thursday night early Friday
and moves northeast along the coast, a period of enhancement from
the apex of the trowal airstream may allow for a secondary maxima in
snowfall from allegany county toward lewis county. This would help
to enhance snowfall amounts there even in the areas that are likely
to see snowfall reduced Thursday evening because of mixed
precipitation. This is the biggest piece of uncertainty in the
forecast. Should these areas remain all snow earlier, it would be
likely that winter storm warnings would be necessary.

Otherwise, drier air in the dendritic layer starts to advect into
the area from the west on Friday. This will allow for a tapering off
of snow into drizzle or freezing drizzle through the late morning
and early afternoon hours. As cold air takes its sweet time
advancing into the area, the boundary layer does not look likely to
cool off enough behind the system on Friday to make this be a
persistent affair.

The next system to affect the area advances eastward on
Saturday. This will bring a round of lake enhanced snow showers
and much colder drier air behind it. Temperatures will really
take a nosedive Saturday night with persistence of this pattern
into the long term period.

Long term Sunday through Wednesday
Broad upper level troughing will continue to dominate the great lakes
and northeastern states in the extended portion of the forecast...

resulting in a certainty of continued well below normal temperatures
through the middle of next week. Speaking more specifically... We can
expect daily highs to mostly be in the 30s... While nightly lows range
from the teens and lower 20s across the north country to the mid and
upper 20s elsewhere. Such readings will be more typical of mid-winter
than of the middle of november.

In terms of precipitation... While the medium range guidance suite is
in general agreement on a couple of weak surface troughs affecting our
region in the Sunday-Monday time frame... Considerable discrepancies
still exist with respect to the track and timing of these features.

Consequently... The orientation... Strength... And amount of shear in
the low level wind field at any given point also remains much in
question. With both of the above in mind... Forecast confidence in
the timing and placement of both synoptically-driven and lake-driven
precipitation during the first half of this period remains on the low
side... And as such have continued with mostly broadbrush snow shower
chances through Monday. After that... There is loose agreement on a
broad warm frontal zone slowly pushing toward into our region in the
Tuesday through Wednesday time frame... For which lower-end broadbrush
chance pops remain in the forecast. Given expected temperatures...

any precip during the latter half of the period should again be mainly
in the form of snow showers... With a little rain perhaps mixing in on
Wednesday as boundary layer temperatures turn more marginal.

Aviation 07z Thursday through Monday
High pressure across new york state will slide into new england
through this morning. This will result in widespreadVFR conditions
through around 15z this morning. Lingering lake effect clouds have
mostly dissipated. High clouds in advance of the next system will be
spread across the region through the morning. Cloud heights will
lower through the morning ahead of the next system.

The next storm system will spread a wintry mix which will move into
the area late this morning through the evening from southwest to
northeast. This mix will mainly be snow, but will be mixed with
sleet at times and freezing rain cannot completely be ruled out
either. Expect conditions to lower to ifr or lower with the arrival
of this precipitation.

Tonight and Friday... MVFR ifr with brief lifr possible in wintry mix
of sleet and snow.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday... MainlyVFR, but ifr possible east of
both lakes in lake rain and or snow.

Monday... MVFR ifr with a chance of snow showers.

Marine
Winds will increase out of the east to southeast today. A coastal
low will bring the next wintry mix potential starting late this
morning into Friday. A mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain is
expected before changing to all snow by Friday morning. The
strongest winds will remain off shore through Thursday night.

Westerly winds increase Friday and small craft conditions will
return for the end of the work week and into the weekend.

Buf watches warnings advisories
Ny... Winter weather advisory from 7 pm this evening to 1 pm est
Friday for nyz004>008.

Winter weather advisory from 4 pm this afternoon to 11 am est
Friday for nyz002-003-010-011.

Winter weather advisory from 1 pm this afternoon to 11 am est
Friday for nyz012>014-019>021-085.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Apffel sw
near term... Apffel sw
short term... Apffel fries
long term... Jjr
aviation... Apffel sw
marine... Apffel sw


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BUFN6 - 9063020 - Buffalo, NY 52 mi34 min E 6 G 8.9 26°F 43°F1033.1 hPa13°F
RPRN6 - Rochester, NY 56 mi22 min S 7 G 8.9 28°F
RCRN6 - 9052058 - Rochester, NY 56 mi40 min 27°F

Wind History for Buffalo, NY
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Dansville, Dansville Municipal Airport, NY16 mi28 minSE 410.00 miFair23°F18°F81%1035.6 hPa

Wind History from DSV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW9
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NW9NW15NW13NW13NW8NW8NW10NW5W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmE3SE4
1 day agoE3CalmS3CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmNW3NW6W6
G16
N5NW13NW12NW7N6NW3Calm3NW9
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2 days agoSE6SE7SE8SE7SE6SE9SE5SE6SE8SE6SE5SE4CalmNW6CalmCalmCalmS4SE4S4S3SE3CalmSE4

Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Buffalo, NY (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Buffalo, NY
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.