Monday, May29, 2017 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Beverly Hills, MI

Version 3.4
What's New / NOTES
5/23/2017 - Worked with NOAA again to speed up the 7 day forecast load times. Thanks to them for being responsive.
5/19/2016 - There were issues with the 3 day airport observation history. I switched to another data source. Let me know if you see any issues with the data feeds.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 9:03PM Monday May 29, 2017 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC) Moonrise 9:08AMMoonset 11:50PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 4 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 343 Am Edt Mon May 29 2017
Today..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon. Sunny in the morning...then partly Sunny with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms in the afternoon. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tonight..Southwest winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms early in the evening...then a chance of light showers late in the evening. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots becoming west 15 to 20 knots. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.
Tuesday night..West winds 10 to 15 knots becoming southwest 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.
Wednesday..West winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.
Thursday..Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.
Friday..Northwest winds 5 to 10 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers and Thunderstorms likely. Waves 2 feet or less.
LCZ460 Expires:201705292000;;385262 FZUS63 KDTX 290752 RRA GLFSC LAKE ST CLAIR FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 343 AM EDT MON MAY 29 2017 WAVES ARE THE SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT - THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/3 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. OCCASIONAL WAVE HEIGHT IS THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST 1/10 OF THE WAVE SPECTRUM. .SYNOPSIS...A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ONTARIO THIS WEEK. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A LONG DURATION OF MODEST WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES. IT MAY TAKE UNTIL THIS WEEKEND TO SEE A SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. LCZ460-292000-

7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Beverly Hills, MI
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location: 42.52, -83.25     debug


Area Discussion for - Detroit/Pontiac, MI
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Fxus63 kdtx 291952
afddtx
area forecast discussion
national weather service detroit pontiac mi
352 pm edt Mon may 29 2017

Discussion
Forecast remains dominated by an upper low that will continue to
wobble around over ontario and quebec through the week. A series of
troughs will rotate around this low through the great lakes
presenting several opportunities for increased cloud cover and
possibly some precipitation. In addition, temperatures will
fluctuate around normal for the end of may, low 70s, as the
shortwave troughs and ridges slide through.

This afternoon we are dealing with possibly the best setup for
showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week as the first
of these shortwaves works through the area. Aided by the left exit
region of a jet streak to our south, decent vorticity lobe expanding
outward from the low, enhanced ribbon of theta e, and strong low mid
level lapse rates to utilize around 500 j kg of elevated cape, we
should continue to see a scattered coverage of showers and
thunderstorms through the evening hours. Should also mention the
lake breeze noted over macomb and st clair counties this afternoon
at the onset of the showers. Typical leads to enhanced activity near
lake st clair and the st clair river. The loss of daytime heating as
the shortwave moves east this evening should end precip chances
through the overnight.

Other issue for the remainder of the evening will be the enhanced
wind field across the area. Fairly tight pressure gradient from the
tightly wound stacked low combined with deep boundary layer mixing
will allow winds to continue to gust to around 25 to 30 knots. This
is fairly uniform across southern lower mi, although there is a
slight uptick in winds over the saginaw valley with a few gust
topping 30 knots. With the overall setup changing little for
Tuesday, one can expect gusts again to reach into the mid 20 knot
range.

The next shortwave will arrive Tuesday afternoon but with a drier
airmass and less instability we will expect to see less coverage of
showers as they likely struggle to develop. Lapse rates will still
be favorable as cooler airmass slides in aloft, and CAPE could still
reach a few hundred j kg, thus we'll keep the slight chance mention.

Wednesday will be a bit of a different scenario as the main upper
level trough axis sweeps through lower mi. Still dealing with a
drier airmass which will make showers struggle to develop, but broad
area of decent low level lapse rates, with some skinny CAPE aloft
and overall lift induced by the trough could result in some
scattered showers. Much drier air works into the region later in the
day behind the trough as flow more northwesterly.

Extended forecast Wednesday through Tuesday: quasi-stationary low
pressure center returns over northern ontario by Thursday. This will
result in the familiar weather pattern that has persisted over the
past few weeks with several short waves being shuttled through lower
michigan. At least chances for showers and or thunderstorms in the
forecast for late Thursday night through early Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, surface low pressure organizing over the central and
southern plains is expected to feed warm, moist air northward into
the pocket of the ohio river valley by early next week. Translation:
more chances for rain developing for Sunday and Monday.

Marine
Late day gusty southwest winds will ease some tonight as nocturnal
stability takes holds. Renewed gustiness will then commence on
Tuesday as the region remains under the influence of upper level low
pressure. Gusts in excess of 25 knots most likely over saginaw bay,
where a small craft advisory remains in effect through Tuesday.

Persistent southwest to westerly winds will a modest increase in
speed and gustiness each afternoon through the midweek period.

Prev discussion
Issued at 118 pm edt Mon may 29 2017
aviation...

diurnal expansion of high based cumulus 6 to 7k ft CIGS will leave
a period of bkn coverage through the latter half of the day. Window
for a few showers isolated thunder this afternoon, particularly
across the detroit corridor. The probability of thunderstorms will
remain too low to include. Peak diurnal mixing will yield gusty
conditions, peaking into the 25 knot range from the southwest. Loss
of diurnal support will bring a reduction in wind speed and
gustiness, along with decreasing cloud cover after 00z.

For dtw... Isolated tsra remains plausible through 00z, but the
probability remains too low to mention.

Dtw threshold probabilities...

* none.

Dtx watches warnings advisories
Mi... None.

Lake huron... Small craft advisory until 10 pm edt Tuesday for lhz421-422.

Lake st clair... None.

Michigan waters of lake erie... None.

Discussion... Drk de
marine... ... .Mr
aviation... ..Mr
you can obtain your latest national weather service forecasts online
at

Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CLSM4 - St. Clair Shores, MI 20 mi59 min SW 13 G 25 77°F 1009.1 hPa (-0.0)
AGCM4 39 mi41 min 70°F 1008.7 hPa
THLO1 - Toledo Light No. 2 OH 48 mi39 min WSW 14 G 14 73°F
MBRM4 - 9014090 - Mouth of the Black River, MI 54 mi41 min 74°F 1008 hPa

Wind History for Fort Gratiot, MI
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Troy, Oakland/Troy Airport, MI4 mi66 minW 14 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F38°F24%1009.8 hPa
Detroit, Detroit City Airport, MI14 mi66 minWSW 16 G 2210.00 miA Few Clouds77°F48°F36%1008.7 hPa
Pontiac, Oakland County International Airport, MI14 mi66 minWSW 11 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy75°F44°F33%1008.4 hPa
Detroit, Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport, MI20 mi66 minWSW 18 G 2610.00 miPartly Cloudy and Breezy80°F48°F33%1009.1 hPa
Selfridge Air National Guard Base, MI23 mi2 hrsSW 1310.00 miFair78°F54°F46%1008.2 hPa

Wind History from VLL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SE8S6
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SW4SW5SW5W5W3SW4SW4SW3SW4SW6SW5SW7SW8SW7
G19
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1 day agoSE3CalmE6SE4S3S4CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmCalmCalmNE3NE3E3E6SE3E4E5CalmE8E3SE4
2 days agoSW4NW5NW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalmNE3SE6E4E3E7CalmE4CalmE7

Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Weather Map
wmap_A
IR Satellite Image from GEOS
east_satellite

GOES Local Image of GreatLakes    EDIT
Geos

Wind Forecast for Detroit/Pontiac, MI (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Detroit, MI
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.