Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:39 PM Moonrise 3:59 AM   Moonset 4:54 PM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 957 Pm Edt Sat May 4 2024
Rest of tonight - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots becoming south 5 to 10 knots early in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - Southwest winds 5 to 10 knots veering to the northwest early in the afternoon - .then becoming north 10 to 15 knots late in the afternoon. Patchy dense fog in the morning. Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots in the late evening and overnight. Partly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - North winds 10 to 15 knots becoming northeast 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Partly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday night - Northeast winds 10 to 15 knots diminishing to 5 to 10 knots after midnight. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Tuesday - Southeast winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly Sunny becoming mostly cloudy. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 2 feet or less.Thursday - Northwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely. Waves 2 feet or less.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 050403 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 1203 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and possible non-severe thunderstorms late tonight through Sunday morning.

- High pressure builds in the latter half of Sunday through Monday bringing drier conditions and closer to average temperatures.

- Developing low pressure over the Midwest brings widespread shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday into Wednesday.

AVIATION

A slot of clear sky over a cool and moist boundary layer has a wide range of aviation conditions in place to begin the late night period. This favors expansion of IFR stratus and fog ahead of a cold front moving in from western Lower Mi. The front brings a weakening band of showers with the chance of a thunderstorm holding on this far east. The rain pattern breaks up with eastward extent while IFR ceiling hold on for a few hours post front. Ceiling then follows a standard daytime improvement as cooler north wind gains traction into the afternoon.

For DTW/D21 Convection... Rapidly waning instability is a limiting factor for thunderstorms during the late night, although a rumble of thunder remains possible as a cold front enters the region and moves eastward shortly after sunrise. Thunderstorms are not expected after mid morning as the front exits into Ontario.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms late tonight.

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight through mid afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 241 PM EDT Sat May 4 2024

DISCUSSION...

Southeasterly lower level flow has developed this afternoon in response to a weak cold front gradually sagging into the western Great Lakes. This wind shift supports modest moisture advection from Ohio, where dewpoints are holding in the mid 60s, nudging local Td's into the low 60s late this afternoon-evening. Even with this extra moisture, both SB/MLCAPEs are expected to stay fairly meager, holding closer to 500 J/kg. Forecast soundings advertise an uncapped environment with weak column winds (<20kts thru 500mb) which supports scattered pop-up showers and perhaps a thunderstorm into early tonight as height falls move in from the west and a diffuse PV anomaly lifts NE over far northwestern Ohio. Surface cold front crosses the area Sunday morning offering another window for scattered showers, particularly along/north of I-69 owing to closer proximity to parent shortwave which offers slightly better upper support/forcing compared to locales further south.

Marginally cooler airmass fallows the frontal passage as 850mb temps drop to around 4-5C keeping highs Monday in the upper 60s to around 70 for most areas. Easterly flow beneath the surface high that will be centered over northern lower MI by this point keeps areas downwind of the lakes like Monroe and especially the Thumb cooler- upper 50s to lower 60s favored.

Upper ridging and associated surface high are shunted east by early Tuesday as a potent mid-upper wave ejects out of the Rockies into the northern Plains. A secondary surface low is progged to develop over the upper Midwest along the original, now stacked, low's triple point. This system lifts a warm front into southern lower MI over the course of Tuesday bringing the area's next appreciable chances for showers and thunderstorms. The attendant cold front quickly follows Tuesday night generating additional widespread showers and storms. Worth noting that longer range solutions suggest a ~40kt LLJ could work into the area from west MI setting up a higher shear environment with severe potential dependent on how much destabilization occurs once the warm sector fully expands of the area. SE MI resides on the edge of SPC's Day 4 15% severe weather outlook so will be something to keep on eye on as we get closer.

MARINE...

An elongated area of low pressure over Wisconsin/Illinois this afternoon tracks east into the central Great Lakes tonight, pulling a warm front north ahead of it. This will result in an increasing coverage of showers as well as modest southeasterly winds tonight.
There will be a slight chance of thunderstorms but severe weather is not expected. A cold front follows on Sunday morning with continued shower/t-storm chances and a shift to northwest wind of around 15 to 20 knots as conditions dry out for the afternoon. High pressure then builds in to bring quiet marine conditions for Monday and much of Tuesday. The next round of likely precip arrives late Tuesday as a warm front moves into the area. This marks the beginning of a more active period through the rest of the week with several disturbances working through.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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