Sunrise 6:05 AM   Sunset 8:53 PM Moonrise 3:09 PM   Moonset 2:51 AM

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LCZ460 Lake St Clair- 341 Pm Edt Fri May 17 2024
Tonight - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots until early morning becoming light and variable. Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday - Light and variable winds becoming southeast 5 to 10 knots in the afternoon. Partly Sunny. Patchy fog in the morning. Waves 2 feet or less.Saturday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday - Light and variable winds becoming south 5 to 10 knots in the late morning and afternoon. Mostly Sunny. Waves 2 feet or less.Sunday night - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots. Mostly clear. Waves 2 feet or less.Monday - Southeast winds 5 to 10 knots becoming south 10 to 15 knots in the afternoon and evening. Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Waves 2 feet or less.Tuesday - South winds 10 to 15 knots. Partly cloudy. A chance of showers. Waves 2 feet or less.Wednesday - Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots. Partly cloudy. Showers likely and a chance of Thunderstorms. Waves 1 to 3 feet.

LCZ400
No data

FXUS63 KDTX 172330 AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI 730 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering widely scattered thunderstorms will dissipate early this evening.

- An Air Quality Alert is in effect for portions of Southeast Michigan Saturday, including Metro Detroit.

- Very warm and muggy conditions will be in-place this weekend with additional opportunities for thunderstorms Sunday and again early next week.

AVIATION

Lingering showers/thunderstorms, primarily in the FNT/PTK corridor, will slowly diminish in the 01z-02z timeframe. At this time, this activity is not expected to reach I-94. With notable low level moisture in place and light/variable winds, fog will be a concern overnight and will be a bit more aggressive with this forecast and monitor initial formation later this evening. Will at least bring a tempo 1/2-3/4sm vsby into PTK south overnight with some degree of fog/ifr-lifr stratus holding into early Saturday morning. Once this clears, VFR conditions are expected into Saturday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...A small cluster of strong thunderstorms between FNT/PTK should dissipate before arriving at DTW early this evening. In the event a remnant storm cell does survive and encroach on Metro Airport, it would be around 02z and should be very isolated in nature. That said, localized wind gusts to 30-40 mph would not be out of the question in such a scenario.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for a thunderstorm early this evening (through 01z).

* Low for ceilings and visibilities to drop below 200ft or 1/2SM tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 328 PM EDT Fri May 17 2024

DISCUSSION...

Partial clearing after morning showers has allowed for areas of sufficient insolation which converts building instability to surface- based CAPE. Diurnal convective development has initiated in isolated to widely-scattered fashion with surface dewpoints near 60F. Severe threat remains quite low given 0-6 km bulk shear values AOB 25 knots, therefore expect mostly short-lived pulse-like thunderstorms.
Latest CAMs suggest a slight increase in coverage with the arrival of a low-amplitude shortwave aloft. Varying storm motions possible as a weak low pressure system/triple-point stalls over Midland.
Multiple boundaries within the vicinity offer several additional point-sources for lift, augmented by MUCAPEs of 750-1250 J/kg.
Steepest lapse rates should be located within the 500-400 mb level, exceeding 8 C/km for part of the afternoon while the lower layer settles closer to moist adiabatic. Some pea-sized hail and few gusts to 40 mph are the main threats today. Storms wane after 9 PM as the mid-levels warm slightly and surface-based activity is cut-off by the development of a nocturnal inversion. A couple lingering showers are possible early tonight before the surface pattern gets washed out.

Weak ridging ensues Saturday with anticyclonic flow noted above 700 mb. Dewpoints remain elevated (near 60F), but forecast soundings reveal thermodynamic profiles that are a bit too warm to facilitate convective updrafts. High temperatures warm to near 80F for most areas while light southeast winds draw slightly cooler air to the coastal communities off the lakes. Clouds thin heading into the afternoon hours as a subsidence inversion develops between 800 and 700 mb.

Flow veers southwesterly Sunday as a deep closed low drifts into northwestern Ontario. An attendant cold front extending well south of the surface reflection washes out over Lake Michigan midday as the warm advection arm traces back to northern Texas. Locally, temperatures top out well above normal as highs peak in the low to mid 80s marked by 850 mb temps of 14-15C. Note that some model variance remains between the ensemble and deterministic solutions as it pertains to thermodynamics. Additional differences noted in QPF magnitude/extent, but most solutions do agree that some convective storms should arise during the PM hours. Dewpoints in the lower 60s and steep low-level lapse-rates should activate surface parcels as shortwave perturbations embedded within the periphery of the leading height fall gradient arrive. Agreed with NBM PoP increase to Slight Chance across most of the forecast area. Low-end potential exists for additional storms Sunday night as a more robust CVA response streams through the drying mid-levels.

An unsettled pattern continues early next week as the synoptic ridge becomes stationary over The Appalachians and the northern stream jet remains active just off to the west. Several shortwaves will eject eastward out of stalled longwave trough Monday and Tuesday with additional ThetaE intrusions. Strong to severe storms would be most probable Tuesday as dewpoints peak in the mid 60s and 0-6 km bulk shear approaches 30 knots. The upper level configuration unlocks Wednesday as an energetic low drops into the Pacific Northwest from the Gulf of Alaska triggering ridge amplification over the Intermountain West. This kicks the jet eastward Wednesday along with a cold front which could initiate some preceding convection locally, depending on timing and southern stream wave interactions. Post- frontal conditions should be noticeably cooler for the back half of next week with a return to near-normal readings.

MARINE...

Scattered showers potentially producing thunderstorms will move over Lake Huron and Lake Erie this afternoon as a weak low pressure center and frontal boundary move across the region. Gentle southerly winds over Lake Huron will back to become more easterly this evening, decreasing down to about 5 knots. These calm winds and moist conditions will lead to some patchy fog overnight. Fog over the lake will hang around for a bit longer than over land, lasting into the early afternoon. Benign and predominantly southerly winds persist through the weekend with a weak cold front moving through on Sunday. Potential for more unsettled conditions Monday night into Tuesday as a stronger system moves into the area. This system will bring moderate southerly winds as well as showers and thunderstorms.

DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.

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